India, China and the 'long march of deep military reform'

Recent PLA's exercises somewhere in Xinjiang

My article India, China and the 'long march of deep military reform' appeared in The Daily Mail.

Here is the link...

China has a Dream: to ensure economic prosperity, social stability, and a decent life to its citizens, but also to become a powerful nation; in fact it dreams to become one day the most powerful nation of the planet.
Military power will play a crucial role in the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
This explains the in-depth military reforms undertaken by President Xi Jinping a year ago.
China is really serious about this.
On December 5 in Beijing, President Xi Jinping, who is also Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) attended a two-day meeting during which he called for “a smaller army with better combat capability and optimized structure.” Some 230 high-ranking military officials as well as the 11 CMC members were in attendance.
Xi told the generals: “If China is to build a strong world-class army. …We must seize the opportunity and make breakthroughs.”
Xi spoke about the informationized modern warfare and emphasized the importance of joint operations. He called for readjusting and optimizing the military's structure: “new type of forces must be developed, the ratios between different types of forces must be rationalized, and the number and the scale of the military be downsized.” Xi added: “Quantity should be reduced, quality improved to build a capable and efficient modernized standing army."
This raises two important questions. While undertaking these reforms, has China not taken a too large bite, which is now difficult to chew?
The other question is: what does this mean for India?
Xinhua remarked that December 2015 “marked a fresh start in the history of the Chinese Armed Forces, as the nation embarked on a long march of deepening military reform.”
The official news agency added: “China has entered a key stage of transforming itself from a big country to a strong power, which calls for greater courage in advancing military reform.”
On December 31, new services were created, namely, the PLA Army, the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force and a few weeks later, the seven erstwhile Military Regions were regrouped into five PLA Theater Commands.
Xinhua admitted: “Despite the remarkable achievements, arduous tasks remain;” therefore, the comparison with the Long March.
The creation of a PLA Strategic Support Force is a plunge into the future as it will deal with cyber and space warfare, probably the keys of tomorrow’s conflicts.
But changing mindsets and controlling vested interests is not an easy proposition. Peter Wood, the Editor of the China Brief of the Jamestown Foundation noted that Chinese publications “calling for the PLA to ‘cast off’ old concepts about the predominance of the Ground Forces are further indication that the transition has not gone smoothly.”
For the new Forces, “to work together in coordinated campaigns also remains a key bottleneck for the PLA,” is not obvious.
This major hurdle is far from being overcome.
Regarding India: it is high time India undertakes reforms, in which the role of the ground forces (Indian Army) need to be rebalanced with the Navy and the Air Force, giving a greater role to ‘informationized warfare’.
There are other issues which need to be reviewed: take for example the appointment of a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). In December 2015, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said that the post of CDS “could be a reality soon”. He then added that the Prime Minister “marked defence reforms as a priority and stressed that ‘jointness at the top’ was a need long overdue.”
The CDS would coordinate between the three services, the strategic command responsible for the nuclear weapons …and one day, the cyber and space commands.
The creation of a post of CDS was already recommended by a Group of Ministers in 2001. But what happened since then? Practically nothing.
Another example of the apathy of the Indian system is the Indian National Defence University (INDU).
Planned since decades, the government finally approved the setting up of the INDU at an estimated cost of 2.95 billion in Haryana in 2010.
On the occasion of the laying of the foundation stone by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2013, Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, the then chairman of the chiefs of staff committee asserted that “India needs military leaders who can critically analyse, demonstrate professional acumen and are capable of meeting the threats & challenges at the tactical, operational & strategic levels."
What has happened to the INDU? Lost in the corridors of South Block?
In the meantime, Kanwa Asian Defense, a Chinese-language publication reported that China's military build-up is coming closer to India. 
Beijing's military would have placed more missiles and fighter jets along the Indian border: “The weapons have been deployed in Tibet and in the western region of Xinjiang along with airborne early warning and control systems.”
Kanwa said that Chinese troops have placed the J-11, the J-10 and the Kongjing-500 (airborne early warning and control or AEW&C aircraft) in rotational deployment. The Shenyang J-11 is a twin-engine jet fighter, developed to compete with fourth-generation fighters.
On December 3, 2016, a PLA website showed pictures of airmen “assigned to an aviation regiment under the PLA Western Theater Command performing flight checks on a J-11 fighter jet prior to a round-the-clock flight training exercise under realistic combat environment at a military airfield.”
The airport is located near the Indian border.
Kanwa also said that in Korla (Xinjiang), China may have deployed troops for the launch of midrange ballistic missiles and in Hotan, north of the Aksai Chin, J-10 and H-6K strategic bomber would have been spotted.
Is it not high time for the Indian defence forces to seriously embark on its Long March to modernization?

Exercise of  the Western Theater Command (in Xinjiang)

Photo obviously taken at another location

Troops exercising in Southern Tibet

J-11 fighter planes exercising in Tibet (Western Theater Command)

 

Today’s India in not the India of the 1950s

Gen Zhao Zongqi with the Indian Army Chief

Gen Zhao Zongqi is a rising star of the People’s Liberation Army. He spent most of his military carrier in Tibet where he occupied different posts before being transferred as chief of staff of the Jinan Military Region (MR) in December 2007. Later he commanded the MR where he got promoted to the rank of full general. On February 1, 2016, he returned to the Indian borders, now called the Western Theater Command, regrouping the erstwhile Lanzhou and Chengdu MRs, which face India from Ladakh to Arunachal.
As Gen Zhao arrived in Delhi, it is interesting to have a look at the latest developments in the fields of defense in China …and in India.
A year ago President Xi Jinping undertook in-depth military reforms.
Beijing often speaks of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in which military power will play a crucial role.
On December 31, 2015, new services were created, namely, the PLA Army, the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force and a few weeks later, the seven erstwhile Military Regions were regrouped into five PLA Theater Commands.
On December 5 in Beijing, President Xi Jinping, who is also Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) attended a two-day meeting during which he called for “a smaller army with better combat capability and optimized structure.” Some 230 high-ranking military officials as well as the 11 CMC members were in attendance.
Xinhua remarked: “China has entered a key stage of transforming itself from a big country to a strong power, which calls for greater courage in advancing military reform.”
The creation of a PLA Strategic Support Force is a plunge into the future as it will deal with cyber and space warfare, probably the keys of tomorrow’s conflicts.
This reminded me ‘reforms’ undertaken by India in the 1950s. During a Defense Council meeting on July 3, 1953, Nehru decided that “the Army was to reduce its strength yearly by a minimum of 10,000 personnel for the next five years.” The Indian leadership wanted a smaller army  …without better combat capability!
The Army Headquarters had to work out a rundown programme of approximately 11,500 per year. The proposals envisaged a 5% reduction in establishments spread over the first two years and the disbandment of a certain number of units during the following three years.
According to a note prepared by by Major General J.N. Chaudhuri, the Chief of General Staff (later Army Chief) and passed by Prime Minister Nehru: “The opinion of Army Headquarters is that while the 5% cut spread over two years will not materially affect the effectiveness of the Army, there will certainly be a loss of morale if approximately 23,000 personnel are sent out and establishments reduced while aid to Pakistan is being discussed.”
The US was then actively supporting a stronger Pakistani Army.
A year later, M.K. Vellodi, the Defense Minister agreed to implement the proposal: “The budget for the next year has been framed on the basis that there will be a reduction of the order of 10,000 men next year as decided by Government already.”
It added: “this reduction should be effected not by disbanding any unit but by effecting about 2 ½ % reduction in the strength of units.”
The same month, the infamous Panchsheel Agreement was signed.
Today, things have changed; the old pacifist mindset has gone. India’s leadership has realized that the best way to bring peace is to be ready for any situation. A few examples will show the importance of preparedness as a deterrent to war.
In August 2016, Delhi decided to deploy the 4th regiment of BrahMos Missile in Arunachal Pradesh. The Cabinet Committee on Security approved the raising of a new regiment of an advanced version of the missile to be deployed in the north-eastern State at a cost of Rs. 4300 crore. The regiment is to be equipped with five autonomous missile launchers with command post and 100 BrahMos missiles. This does not amuse the Chinese who have taken note.
A month earlier, T-72 Russian-origin tanks were inducted in Eastern Ladakh facing China: “This adds a new dimension to any future war in the area that is marked by an average height of 14,000 feet, where oxygen is scarce,” says The Tribune. According to The Daily Excelsior published from Jammu, for the Indian Army “the move is part of the winter drill to validate the capability of the tanks at such heights and is not an inimical move against China.”
On November 8, for the first time, the Indian Air Force successfully carried out a test landing and take-off of C-17 Globemaster-III at Mechuka’s Advanced Landing Ground (ALG) in Arunachal Pradesh. Mechuka is strategically located just 29 km from the border.
After the upgradation of Mechuka's ALG, the giant Boeing C-17 could land. It should eventually ensure transport of men and material in the remote border village of West Siang district, which was invaded by the Chinese in 1962.
Arunachal will soon have seven ALGs in Walong, Mechuka , Vijaynagar, Tuting, Pasighat, Ziro and Aalo and later one in Tawang.
Other good news: India did not back down when confronted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is Demchok village in South-East Ladakh. The national press reported that the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and the Indian Army were caught for three days in an eyeball to eyeball situation with PLA on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Demchok. In April, the residents of Demchok had appealed to the Deputy Commissioner in Leh for their resettlement elsewhere in the district because of continuous obstructions to any developmental work in the area by the Chinese troops.
This time India did not blink.
We could multiply the examples.
These are important messages for General Zhao to take back home: today’s India is not the same as in the 1950s.

China is getting ready

As the Tibetan Sikyong (Prime Minister) begins his second term with a new Kashag (Cabinet) in Dharamsala, (all of the ministers were approved after a majority vote during the first day session of the 16th Tibetan Parliament), the Chinese Government continues to reinforce its presence on the plateau.
Of course, Beijing does not appreciate much democracy; Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei reiterated that what he calls the ‘so-called Tibetan government-in-exile’ has no legitimacy; the democratic elections-in-exile are considered by China a ‘political slapstick’.
Nothing new!
We know that Xi Jinping’s regime is not very fond of democracy.
Hong Lei even commented on the ‘separatist political group in India’ (i.e. the Central Tibetan Administration or CTA in Dharamsala) by pointing out that the CTA was not recognized by any country.

The deluge continues
In the meantime and perhaps more critical for the survival of the Tibetan identity, the deluge of Chinese tourists continues in Tibet.
According to Lhasa’s Tourism Bureau, Lhasa received 176,100 tourists during the May Day holiday (April 30-May 2); this represents a year-on-year growth of 11.52 percent. Tourism revenue during this period was 1.1 billion yuans (about 169 million U.S. dollars), up by 18.49 percent compared to the previous year.
Mainland’s travel agencies promote package such as “Three-day tour to Nyingchi for enjoying peach blossoms”, “Three-day tour to Mt. Qomolangma (Everest)”, “One-day tour to Namtso”, etc.
The promotions tell the tourists that they will not only “enjoy beautiful scenery but also visit local families and taste unique Tibetan delicacies.”
With more serious consequence for India, Bayi’s Tourism Bureau announced that the district received more than 174,000 tourists from January to March in 2016, up by 53.23 percent.
Bayi lays just at India’s doors.
Bayi (it translates by ‘8-1’, meaning that the area belongs to the People’s Liberation Army whose anniversary fall on 8-1 or August 1) is located north of Indian border of Arunachal Pradesh.
During the same period, the tourism revenue for the area reached 157 million yuans (about 24.13 million U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of 37.3 percent.
Xinhua says “Tourism is developing steadily and rapidly”.
An understatement!
The Chinese government promotes "Pure Land, Beautiful Nyingchi" or the “The Switzerland of Tibet” or the gorges of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra).
Beijing says that the area: “enjoys unique ethnic culture, biological culture and beautiful scenery. Bayi District has developed rural tourism, folk custom tourism and other forms of tourism.”
In the meantime, the Indian Government sticks with its archaic mindset; an antiquated ‘Inner Line Permit’ dating from the Raj still prevails and there is no will to change this in Delhi. India is unable to emulate China (in this field at least).

Infrastructure Development
In order to welcome millions of tourists, the infrastructure has developed at fast pace on the plateau.
On May 23, China Tibet Online asserted: “News World's most beautiful highway, Lhasa-Nyingchi Super Highway”
A spectacular picture is captioned. “Ecology corridor, green gallery, landscape avenue ...stunning scenery of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Super Highway attracts lots of people.”
And of course, the road leads to the Indian border.
Then, China plans a new railway between Chengdu and Lhasa.
The Economist recently wrote: “Plans for a new railway line into Tibet pose a huge technological challenge—and a political one.”

The London-based publication noted: “A COLOSSAL roller-coaster is how a senior engineer described it. He was talking about the railway that China plans to build from the lowlands of the south-west, across some of the world’s most forbidding terrain, into Tibet. Of all the country’s railway-building feats in recent years, this will be the most remarkable: a 1,600-kilometre (1,000-mile) track that will pass through snow-capped mountains in a region racked by earthquakes, with nearly half of it running through tunnels or over bridges. It will also be dogged all the way by controversy.”
The Economist added: “It will be just under half as long again as the existing line to Tibet, but will take three times longer to build. The second line’s estimated cost of 105 billion yuan ($16 billion) is several times more than the first one. Lhasa is about 3,200 metres (10,500 feet) higher than Chengdu, yet by the time the track goes up and down on the way there—crossing 14 mountains, two of them higher than Mont Blanc, Western Europe’s highest mountain—the cumulative ascent will be 14,000 metres.”
It does not seem to be a problem for the Chinese planners.
Once the railway is functional, the ‘Middle Path’ approach of the Dalai Lama will have no meaning as the entire plateau will be integrated to the Mainland and 100 million Chinese tourists will pour into the Roof of the World every year.
Is the new Kashag of Dharamsala aware of this?

Other developments
In parallel to the new railway line, smaller projects are going on.
For example, the Gonggar Railway Station at the Lhasa Airport, now under construction.
Xinhua reported: “At present, station projects of Gonggar Railway Station in Tibet Autonomous Region of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway is stepping up its construction, and expected to be completed by the end of 2016.”
The news agency adds that the new station will be adjacent to 101 Provincial Highway, 15 km distance from Gonggar/Lhasa Airport, “It will provide convenience for many domestic and overseas tourists in and out of Tibet after the completion of the railway station.”
The building of a sophisticated electricity grid is also progressing at fast pace.
According to China Tibet Online: “Key western development projects—the Qinghai-Tibet networking project has been in operation for 5 years, withstanding the cold, low atmospheric pressure, high winds and sand, and other harsh environmental tests. Operations have remained safe and stable, bringing benefits to the people along the ‘bright, heavenly road’ in Qinghai and Tibet.”
The National Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company provided some data: since its inception, the Qinghai-Tibet networking project has already conveyed 3.3billion kW/h to Tibet, equivalent to 416,900 tons of standard coal transport, which is a reduction in carbon emissions of 1.03 mlillion tons.
More interestingly: “The Qinghai-Tibet D.C. power system successfully carried out reverse-carry loads. The Tibet power grid achieved 332 million kW/h of hydropower delivery during the high water level periods, all of which was consumed within Qinghai Province.”
It means that once a few dams, now under construction are operational (particularly on the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra), Tibet will be able to supply China with electricity.
The Chinese website further describes the project: “The Qinghai-Tibet networking project is a key western development project. It is also the world’s highest D.C. electricity transmission project and the longest transmission line across frozen ground. Located mostly in a low atmospheric pressure area with a lack of oxygen, cold, high winds, and radioactive hot spots, at an average elevation of 4,500 meters high, the highest elevation point is at 5,300 meters high. More than 900 kilometers of the line are located in areas above 4,000 meters high.”
All this has important strategic implications for India.
Why?

Implications for India
In an article titled “Across China: Heavenly road brings the high life to Tibetan Plateau”, Xinhua explains the reason.
The article is about the Xinjiang-Tibet Highway, known in China as National Highway 219 and in India by his infamous name ‘the Aksai Chin road’. Infamous because the Nehru government took more than 5 years to discover that the PLA had built a road on Indian territory.
Xinhua remarks: “It is the melon season in neighboring Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, fresh fruit is stacked up at the roadside, waiting to be ferried through the Kunlun Mountains and up to the plateau along the Xinjiang-Tibet Highway.”
This road has not only linked the two most strategic (and restive) provinces of China (Tibet and Xinjiang) but also helped to tremendously cut the cost for the occupation Western China by the PLA.
Xinhua takes an example: “Less than a decade ago, a kilogram of melon could sell for 60 yuan (about 10 U.S. dollars) on the plateau.”
It then quotes Zhang Lei, head of an armed police transport detachment stationed in Ritu County along the highway: “Last year the price was just a little over 10 yuan.”
National Highway 219 is built at an average altitude of over 4,500 meters and is the world's highest motorable road.

The Chinese news agency gives a historic background: “Originally covered by gravel in 1950s, the 2,340-kilometer highway was almost fully paved by 2013, slashing the travel time between Yecheng County in southern Xinjiang and Ngari Prefecture in Tibet from 15 days to just one day, with another day to reach Lhasa. Accidents and fatalities also decreased dramatically.”
Song Shibing, chief of a transport police troop, says that the area has seen dramatic changes in the lifestyles of local people: “Back in 2003, he tried to buy an axe from a herdsman for 100 yuan (several times the price of an axe in a shop), but the herdsman refused his money and brandished an empty 5-liter bottle instead. He wanted diesel.”
The article concludes: “The highway today looks to me like an airport runway -- wide, flat and smooth - a heavenly road, indeed.”
It is certainly a great boon for the PLA and China’s border management in general.
Xinhua explains: “With a safe, modern highway, transportation costs from Yecheng to Ngari have fallen by 55 percent, leading to cuts of about 40 percent in the price of commodities in the Tibetan town. Better yet, the number of tourists in Ngari has surged five-fold.”
In other words, the ‘Indian front’ will get its supplies faster and cheaper.
The time has perhaps come for Delhi to wake up and study what is happening on the other side of the LAC.
It is particularly important at a time, when the 2 fronts facing India (in Ladakh and Arunachal) have been merged into one Western Theater Command, greatly improving the management of the borders with India.
A telling image: last week photos of 15th Airborne's Corps exercising in Tibet appeared on the Chinese Net.
A caption says: “a mechanized regiment of 15th Airborne Corps, conducted a battalion size rapid deployment into the Tibetan Plateau. Pictures from this ‘independent action’ exercise.”
China is clearly getting ready.
Watch the 15th Airbone Corps practicing on the plateau.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'Rude China’ is driven by sense of power

My article 'Rude China’ is driven by sense of power appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.

Here is the link...

Chinese arrogance is worrisome for India because China remains and will remain a hegemonic state, even if benevolently hegemonic. The Modi regime should speak a firmer language…with (sweet) characteristics

While speaking at a garden party at Buckingham Palace, Queen Elizabeth said that certain Chinese officials had been ‘very rude’ during President Xi Jinping’s State visit to UK in October 2015; it was supposed to herald a ‘Golden Era’ in the bilateral relations.
When introduced to the Queen, Lucy D'Orsi, a senior police officer responsible for the security during Xi’s visit, described her dealings with Chinese officials as ‘quite a testing time’, the 90-year-old Queen retorted: "They were very rude to the ambassador."
The video of the monarch, who never makes political comments, went instantaneously viral. Though termed as a ‘gaffe’ by the media, the clip was made public by the Palace.
The Queen spoke a truth that not many heads of state can afford to utter; in fact the Chinese always get away with it.
Why are the Chinese so rude?
Simply because Beijing believes that China is the greatest world power with the United States …and that there is no harm in showing it.
As China’s economic clout vanishes, one of the most serious problems that Xi Jinping will be facing in the years to come is to show that the Middle Kingdom is a ‘normal’, not a rude, nation.
Beijing today speaks of the ‘new normal’ to describe the fact that the Chinese economic machine runs slower than earlier; however, as far as Beijing’s behavior is concerned, it may take decades for China to be ‘normal’.
What is happening in the South China Sea will convince even hard-core sinophiles. In its recently-published annual report to the US Congress, the US Defence Department described how China, with its rapid military growth, is using ‘coercive tactics’ to foster regional tensions.
Can China become normal? In modern times, it is one of the most fascinating evolving political scenarios to watch.
The leadership in Beijing is clearly aware of the dichotomy: the impossibility to become a ‘normal’ State and simultaneously continue to bully the rest of the planet, excepting a few nations (mainly the US and in a few cases, India).
After the Buckingham incident, The Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, said it would be ‘truly boorish and rude’ if British officials had intentionally leaked the video; it added that the Western media is “full of reckless 'gossip fiends' who bare their fangs and brandish their claws and are very narcissistic, retaining the bad manners of barbarians."
But counteraccusations, mainly for internal consumption, do not help restore Beijing’s image.
With its declining economical power, what is the way forward for China to command ‘respect’?
One way is to reform the military and make Beijing truly a bully.
The last war fought by China (against Vietnam in 1979) showed the weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA); since then the situation has further deteriorated with corruption creeping in: during the last 2 years, more than 50 officers of the rank of major general and above have been purged.
Xi Jinping, who cumulates all the positions in the Party, the State and the PLA, knows that if China wants to be taken seriously (and the rudeness ignored), it needs to be strong, very strong. It is not the case today.
On May 12, the Central Military Commission (CMC) released a 13th five-year military development plan (2016-2020). Xinhua said that China’s aims were to complete military reforms and have armed forces capable of informationized warfare by 2020. It asserted that in the next five years, the PLA will realize a significant increase of key combat capabilities.
All the resources will be directed to projects that “enhance combat readiness, facilitate major reforms and improve benefits for servicemen and women,” says the paper.
The Chinese President often speaks of the Chinese dream: “a dream for harmony. Unfair and unreasonable old international order which has not been fundamentally changed is the most important cause of world chaos and dilemma.”
Though according to Xi, the new world order will be based on peaceful settlements of global disputes, the Middle Kingdom will be at the center of these new arrangements.
It is worrying for India, because China remains and will remain a hegemonic State, even if benevolently hegemonic.
Last week, The Global Times mentioned the new importance of the Tibet Military Command’s (TMC), which will now function directly under the jurisdiction of the PLA Army, the ground forces’ central command; the TMC won’t be a district of the defunct Chengdu Military Command Areas (MAC) anymore.
An ‘analyst’ told The Global Times: “China continues to strengthen its military presence in the autonomous region and aims to allow the military command to shoulder more combat assignments.”
Against whom? India?
China Youth Daily had earlier reported that the TMC's political level will be elevated to a higher rank than the other provincial military commands; it added that it marks a "new journey for the Tibet military command's construction."
What does it means for India?
The first radical change was the remoulding of the 7 MACs into 5 Military Theater Commands, with the entire Indian front, from Arunachal to Ladakh coming under the same command (Western Theater), instead of two MACs (Chengdu and Lanzhou MACs).
The Global Times noted that border disputes between China and India have not been completely resolved, though last month Chang Wanquan, the Chinese Defense Minister, reacted positively about setting up a military hotline with India when Manohar Parrikar visited Beijing.
Song Zhongping, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Party’s mouthpiece that the TMC promotion “will significantly improve the command's ability to manage and control the region's military resources, as well as provide better preparation for combat."
Song added that the TMC has the great responsibility to prepare for possible conflicts between China and India, and currently it is extremely difficult to secure all the military needed resources: "Military action in the TMC requires specialist mountain skills and long-range capabilities, which need the deployment of special military resources."
The ‘expert’ further noted: "The promotion of the command's authority level shows the amount of attention China places on the defense of its southwestern borders. The higher the authority level, the more military resources the command can mobilize."
Zhao Zhong, deputy director of the Political Work Department of the TMC, remarked that the move to place the TMC directly under the PLA Army, “suggests that the command may undertake some kind of military combat mission in the future."
This shows that the raising of the Mountain Corps should be a priority for India, despite the financial constraints.
In the meantime, Beijing will probably continue to be rude, when required, with its friends and foes. The Queen’s remarks should be emulated and fingers should be pointed at China when its behavour is not acceptable.
The Modi Sarkar can certainly speak a firmer language …with Indian (sweet) characteristics.

Gen Zhao Zongqi lands on the plateau

Gen Zhao Zongqi, the new Western Theater Commander
receives the flag from Chairman Xi Jinping

According to China Military Online, President Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) yesterday presided  over a ceremony to unveil five new Military Theater Commands (MTCs).
“The five MTCs are named by their strategic location in north, south, east, west and central China, replacing the current seven Military Area Commands (MAC) headquartered in Beijing, Nanjing, Chengdu, Jinan, Shenyang, Lanzhou and Guangzhou”, says the Chinese website.
The purpose of this major reform is to restructure the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) to better manage the armed forces and boost their combat capabilities.
According to The PLA Daily, Chairman Xi told the new commanders and political commissars that the MTCs should “shoulder the responsibilities of responding to security threats, safeguarding peace, [and work on] war containment [and be able to win] wars in each strategic direction.”
China had already unveiled the military reform blueprint in November 2015 with the formation of a three-tier command system (CMC - MTC – Troops): "an administrative system running  from the CMC, through various services down to the troops has been developed.”
Of course, Xi urged the new MTC’s commanders to “unwaveringly follow the leadership of the CPC and faithfully carry out instructions and orders from the CPC Central Committee (CC) and the CMC.”
He also asked them to study how to win modern wars, by using efficient joint theater command management.
Xi presented the flags of the new MTCs to the new Commanders: General Liu Yuejun, Commander of the Eastern Theater and General Zheng Weiping, the Political Commissar; General Wang Jiaocheng, Commander of the Southern Theater and General Wei Liang, the Political Commissar; General Zhao Zongqi, Commander of the Western Theater and and General Zhu Fuxi, the Political Commissar; General Song Puxuan, Commander of the Northern Theater and General Chu Yimin, the Political Commissar; and Lt Gen Han Weiguo, Commander of the Central Theater and Lt Gen Yin Fanglong, the Political Commissar.
According to the same source, Xi called on the MTC’s commanders “to keep their duties in mind and resolutely implement the country's military strategies.”
In the new structure, the CMC will look after the overall military administration, while the MTCs will focus on combat.
Xi said that the move to establish five theater commands and form a joint battle command system is a Party’s strategic decision in view of realizing the Chinese dream of a strong military: “It is a landmark progress in implementing the military reforms and building the PLA's joint battle system.”
Xi added that “the five theater commands are responsible for dealing with security threats in their respective strategic scopes, maintaining peace, containing wars and winning wars”.
He noted that the pivotal role of the commands “in safeguarding the country's overall national security and military strategies.”
Xi also said that the new commands should concentrate on fighting battles.
The commanders were asked “to study the mechanism of winning modern wars, grasp the law of employing military forces, speed up the development of a strategy for the theater commands and enhance the training of joint operations and command in order to win the initiative in future wars.”
The new commands “should be prepared to fight at any time and always be ready to act in response to the call of the people and the Party.”
Xinhua News Agency commented that, under the CMC's leadership, the MTCs should focus on engagement, while the PLA army, navy and air force will concentrate on developing their respective forces.
Fang Bing, a professor at the PLA National Defense University told The Global Times, the Party’s mouthpiece that more senior officers from the navy and air force will be assigned in the future as top leaders of the theater commands.
The Global Times also reported that though official details have not as yet been revealed about the exact areas covered by each theater command, analysts believe that the new commands are likely address the new challenges faced by China as a growing world power.
According to Song, a Beijing-based military expert, the Western MTC will have to shoulder more responsibilities in counterterrorism (read separatism in Xinjiang and Tibet), while the eastern and southern commands will face more threats from the East and South China Seas - each requiring a different style of joint battle command:

The different strategic locations will require an adjustment of different PLA forces inside each theater command. The PLA army, which formerly had a larger proportion in the previous military area commands, is likely to see a reduced proportion, while other forces - including the navy, air force and the rocket force - will see a bigger role.

All this will take time and is bound to create frictions within the PLA.
Chinese defense ministry spokesperson, Yang Yujun asserted that the establishment of the MTCs marks a historic progress in the PLA construction of a joint battle command system: “The PLA has also adjusted its different forces under the theater commands based on the functions of the PLA navy and air force, as well as previous military area commands.”
The spokesperson added that the new arrangement is in line with the practices of the world's leading military powers:

The previous mechanism with seven military commands was set up when China was under heavy military pressure from the north, but the nation's security environment has changed over the decades, hence requiring a re-drawing of area commands addressing different strategic locations.

Though it was denied that China's military reform meant more muscle-flexing, the future only will tell us if this is true.
The spokesman reiterated that China's defense policy is defensive in nature and its military strategy features active defense: “The Chinese military intends to seek more military cooperation and make greater contribution to safeguarding world peace.”
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) commented that commanders with battle experience have been posted in areas with ‘high risk of war’, though the selections for the central command reflect concerns about 'maintaining stability'.
In fact, this is also true for the Western MTC, which not only faces India, but also is responsible for the ‘instability’ in Xinjiang and Tibet.
While the new commanders and political commissars will look after the territorial defence of those areas, "they will no longer directly administer the troops in each region, but focus instead on joint command of the ground, naval, air and all other forces", added the Hong Kong newspaper.
The Commanders have also been reshuffled regionwise, for example, former Lanzhou MR’s chief, General Liu Yuejun has been transferred as the head of the Eastern MTC, while General Wang Jiaocheng goes from Shenyang MR to the Southern MTC and Jinan region commander General Zhao Zongqi becomes head of the Western MTC (General Zhao however served in Tibet for many years, as reported on this blog); and former Beijing region commander General Song Puxuan becomes head of the Northern MTC.
Retired colonel Yue Gang told the SCMP that it was making a big change and the leadership had to be cautious.
There is no doubt that the battle is not won for Chairman Xi, who will continue to take ‘cautious’ steps.
One indication is that several political commissars (of Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Shenyang) have been kept and reposted as the commissars of the new commands.
The South China Morning Post points that the exception is the Central MTC, where Lt Gen Han Weiguo has been promoted Commander (he is not a full general or even a member of the Central Committee), and Lt Gen Yin Fanglong, former deputy chief of the General Political Department is the new commissar (he too is a Lt Gen, though a CC’s Alternate Member).
Col Yue commented: “Commanders with battle experience have been put in areas with a high risk of war but the selections for the central command reflect more concern about maintaining stability.”
It is only the beginning of a long process.
India should watch carefully, especially now that the entire northern border will be dealt by one command only; it will certainly improve its efficiency. Further General Zhao Zongqi, the new Western MTC’s Commander has a good knowledge of the situation on the Tibetan plateau, having been posted in Tibet for several years.

Theater Command	Commander	Commissar
North	Song Puxuan	Chu Yimin
South	Wang Jiaocheng	Wei Liang
East	Liu Yuejun	Zheng Weiping
West	Zhao Zongqi	Zhu Fuxi
Central	Han Weiguo	Yin Fanglong

Interestingly, on the day of the announcement of the new MTCs, a series of photos of J-11 fighter planes operating on the plateau were published. These planes will now be under the direct command of Gen Zhao Zonhqi.

Take a deep breath: councelling in Tibet required

Councelling in Shigatse

At the beginning of the year, The Global Times wrote a commentary on the recent reforms in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA): “With a strong army, China can be more politically appealing, influential and persuasive, and will make it easier to network. As we gain more trust from other countries, many of them will no longer be dependent on the US for security.”
The article further asserted: “The army will be more capable of using the equipment and soldiers’ morale will be boosted.”
However, the morale of PLA officers and troops does not seem very high right these days.
The Global Times concluded: “The latest military reform sets a lofty target and involves a wide range of aspects, it will meet many challenges and difficulties in the process.”
One of the problems is about ‘releasing inner discomforts and welcoming new challenges.’
A few days ago, China Tibet Online published photos, taken in Central Tibet, of a group of new recruits playing “a group psychological counseling game under the guidance from psychological counselors”.
The mouthpiece of the Communist Party in Tibet reported that on December 28, a detachment of Tibet’s border defense troops in Shigatse organized a group training activity, themed around ‘releasing inner discomforts and welcoming new challenges’.
The exercise was meant for the new recruits, who experience inner and outer discomforts, while being posted on the Tibetan plateau.
The website explained that the course was designed “to help new recruits alleviate psychological pressure, improve self-regulation ability and ensure they pass the ‘second adaptation period’ smoothly.”
In May 2013, I mentioned on this blog that the Tibetan Centre for Human Rights and Democracy (TCHRD) in Dharamsala had got hold of a fascinating manual exposing the psychological trauma faced by the People's Armed Police (PAPF) in Tibet.
At that time, I spoke of the case of young Han soldiers posted on the border with India: “Though not confronted with violence like the PAP in Sichuan or Gansu, the young Han soldiers must have a traumatic psychological life, just because their political bosses in Beijing insist on grabbing a few sq. kilometers more of Indian land.”
I then commented on the Tibetans, who too are suffering: “It is easy to redo the world with 'ifs', but 'if' China was a normal country, 'if' China was a normal neighbour, its leaders would allow others to dream, like President Xi is now exhorting his countrymen to do. Today in Tibet, Tibetans can't dream.”
If China was a normal country, it would be great for the poor PAP's soldiers who do not understand what they are doing in Tibet. It would also be good for China's finances (let us not forget that Beijing's budget for 'internal security' is higher than the Chinese Defence budget). It would be good too for China's image and good for the Tibetans who only aspire to some 'normal' basic freedoms.

Take a deep breath
During the recent Shigatse ‘counseling’, the detachment’s counselors, Zhang Yan and Li Linfu, “fully played to their strengths by using plain language to explain to the new recruits how to alleviate their own psychological pressure. They also organized group psychological behavioral training in a relaxed, heuristic and cooperative manner. The new recruits participated actively and were enthusiastic, coordinated and willing to try,” said China Tibet Online.
The article concluded: “This activity not only helped recruits relieve psychological pressure and relax their minds, but also strengthened their team spirit and collective consciousness. It increased troop cohesion, solidarity and fighting capacity and laid a solid foundation for new recruits in their new jobs.”
This also means that so many years after the ‘Liberation’ of Tibet in the early 1950s, the Chinese soldiers are still not at home on the Roof of the World.
But with the ambitious extent of the new ‘reforms’, it is not only on the Plateau that officers and troops are experiencing discomfort.

The 'discomfort' of the reforms
Many generals and senior officers, who will soon lose their jobs, need ‘to release their discomfort’.
This probably explains why the youngest serving PLA Corps Commander was recently dismissed, after he went out for a binge drinking party with some officers who had served under him.
China News Service reported that Zhang Yan, Commander of the Shandong-based 26th Group Army (Corps), went for a drinking party with two former subordinates and one died soon after.
The report says that the two lower ranking officers belonged to the 39th Group Army based in Shenyang, where Zhang was earlier posted.
There is no information about when and where the binge drinking took place.
In April 2014 (well before the ‘reforms’), The China Youth Daily had affirmed that nine government officials in China had died from excessive drinking between January 2013 and April 2014.
With the tempo of the reforms accelerating, counseling for retiring generals (and troops) will probably be required on a larger scale.
And these officers should not be sent to Tibet, life is too uncomfortable on the Plateau. It could only aggravate their case.

The PLA: The Great Reform Season

Gen Li Zuocheng, commander of the PLA Army
receives the new fag from President Xi

President Xi Jinping may not have a rosy Year 2016.
In fact, it is certain that he will face serious challenges in 2016, principally after undertaking a series of in-depth reforms in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
On November 7, The People's Daily carried a commentary calling on military authorities to win the ‘battle of military reforms’. Today, the battle is far from being won.
The Communist Party’s mouthpiece reiterated the Party's absolute leadership over the military and asked the armed forces “to remain consistent with the central authorities' decisions.”
It probably means that some elements in the PLA are not ‘consistent’ with the Party. The People’s Daily warned: “Senior leading departments and officials should play a guiding role in the process. They must back the central authorities' decisions and oppose political liberalism. They must not act on their own, gossip or make irresponsible remarks.”
The entire PLA reorganization could prove a perilous exercise.
But Xi is decided to shake up the system, establish a joint operational command structure for the land forces and reduce the seven Military Areas Commands (MACs) into five combat or strategic zones.
The South China Morning Post commented: “The restructure is part of Xi’s massive military overhaul, which aims to shift the PLA from an army-centric system towards a Western-style joint command, in which the army, navy and air force are equally represented.”
Last month, in a long speech carried by Xinhua, Chairman Xi gave a rather detailed report on the planned reforms. Xi asserted: "Under the leadership of the Communist Party, our military has gone from small to big, from weak to strong, from victory to victory. On this road, reform and innovation steps have never stopped."
On the eve of the New Year, The South China Morning Post reported that new Service Chiefs of the PLA Navy, Air Force and the land force command have already been selected.
Two Deputy Commanders of the PLA General Staff Department, Admiral Sun Jianguo, 63, and Lt Gen Yi Xiaoguang, 57 should respectively take over the PLA Navy and Air Force, while Gen Li Zuocheng, 62, commander of the Chengdu MAC, is to become the first chief of a newly-formed land force command.
The three new Chiefs will automatically become members of the CMC.
Amongst the reforms, ‘PLA Inc’ will stop its song and dance troupes, hospitals and other profit-making activities. Whether this will help solving the problem of deep corruption within the Chinese defence forces, is another question. The PLA, which once upon the time was a Peasants’ Army, has indeed become corrupt and incompetent.
The South China Morning Post commented: “For decades, the PLA has profited from accepting civilian patients at military hospitals, leasing military warehouses to commercial firms, hiring PLA song and dance troupes for public events, outsourcing military construction companies.”
But there is yet more.
In September during a visit to Washington, President Xi promised that the PLA “will not conduct or knowingly support online theft from U.S. business networks”. In recent years, the US accused the PLA of stealing billions of dollars’ worth of intellectual property from the US.
Reuters commented: “The troop cuts are part of long-mooted reforms to simplify and further professionalize the military, especially command and leadership structures that are still largely run along Soviet lines.”
What is the objective of this exercise apart from cutting the corruption rampant in each Department?
The declared purpose of the exercise is to have, by 2020, a military setup ‘capable of winning information-age warfare’.
‘Efficiency’ is clearly the new mantra.
It is obvious that if China wants to pick a fight with the US or Japan or even with its smaller neighbours, its armed forces need to be ready. Today, they are not.
Streamlining and downsizing the military will start from the CMC. By focusing on major functions and merging similar functions, the multiple-department CMC should become more efficient to supervise and coordinate the defence forces.
Even the intelligence setup will be changed. Peter Mattis, a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation commented: “The wide-ranging scope of the new PLA reforms will have many unforeseen second- and third-order consequences [for the Chinese intelligence]. If the Chinese military implements every single one of the announced proposals, this round of reform could wind up being as significant as the reforms undertaken in the early 1950s.”
The ratio between the Army, Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force (the strategic forces) will be rebalanced to take care of “the increasingly complicated global situation faced by the world's largest rising power,” wrote The Global Times.
As a large number of staff will be out of jobs, particularly in the Political Department, how to cool the resentment of the generals and troops?
The Ministry of National Defence spokesman explained that “veterans are valuable to the Party and country, as they have completed strict training and important tasks, and will be granted special job placement policies upon transfer or retirement.” Easier said than done!
The PLA Daily recently called for those who will lose their positions to “jump out of the box of self-interest …those with ulterior motives, officers and soldiers must maintain their ideological and political convictions.” It acknowledges that it will require that the high-level authorities and senior cadres provide the example.
One of the signs that all is not well for Chairman Xi is the visit of the entire CMC to the headquarters of The PLA Daily; Xi called on the journalists to play a leading role in strengthening the military and to innovate. Xi said the Daily should uphold Party principles and ‘unswervingly’ embrace the CPC leadership.
Xi also asked the publication to explain the military reform to the officers and soldiers and ‘guide’ the officers and soldiers to support and take part in the reform.
Another sign of the difficult times ahead is the fact that Xi did not manage to promote one of his protégés, Gen Liu Yuan who has just retired as the Political Commissar of the PLA’s Logistics Department. Liu, the son of former President Liu Shaoqi, greatly helped Xi in his campaign to cleanse the ‘flies and tigers’ in the PLA ranks; with two CMC’s vice-chairmen being investigated, Liu was expected to be appointed secretary of a Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) to be setup within the CMC. The fact that he did not get the job tends to show that Xi does not have full control.
What do these reforms mean for India?
On December 31, Senior Colonel Yang Yujun, the spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense commented on the situation in the China-India border; he said: “The two militaries have strengthened border defense contacts and through institutionalized channels in the border area …The Chinese side is ready to work with the Indian side …to jointly maintain peace and stability in the border region.”
In the coming year, China will try to keep the situation on the border stable, but in longer terms, the Chinese defence forces will become fitter, better prepared and far more coordinated.
Militarily, reforms make sense for China; it also implies that India has a few years to prepared itself (with the new Mountain Strike Corps for example).
In the past in China, regional level military commanders have enjoyed warlord-like status over their respective military regions, making it difficult to exercise a centralized control which is today necessary …to win a war. This may change.
Though the PLA’s reforms are a clear message to China’s neighbours to get ready, Chairman Xi will undoubtedly faces innumerable hurdles on the way to make the PLA a fighting force in 2016.

The Army that we must watch out for

My article The Army that we must watch out for appeared in  the Edit Page of The Pioneer today.

Here is the link...

President Xi Jinping is faced with a daunting task to reform his Army. While he will have to face hurdles, India must get ready as Chinese defence forces will become fitter and better prepared for any eventuality

Chairman Xi, as the Chinese President is known in the defence circles in China (he chairs the all-powerful Central Military Commission), will face his most serious challenge in the weeks to come as he has undertaken to ‘reform’ the People’s Liberation Army.
On November 7, The People’s Daily carried a commentary calling on military authorities to win the ‘battle of military reforms’. It clearly means that the battle is not won. The Communist Party’s mouthpiece reiterated the party’s absolute leadership over the military and asked the Armed Forces “to remain consistent with the Central authorities’ decisions.”
One reform is to cut the troops by 300,000 by 2020.  The People’s Daily warned: “Senior leading departments and officials should play a guiding role in the process. They must back the Central authorities’ decisions and oppose political liberalism. They must not act on their own, gossip or make irresponsible remarks.”
Under the new rules, ‘PLA Inc’ will stop its song and dance troupes, hospitals and other profit-making activities. Will this help solving the problem of deep corruption within the Chinese defence forces, is another question. It is indeed a fact that the PLA, which once upon the time was a Peasants’ Army, has become corrupt, very corrupt and incompetent.
The South China Morning Post commented: “For decades, the PLA has profited from accepting civilian patients at military hospitals, leasing military warehouses to commercial firms, hiring PLA song and dance troupes for public events, outsourcing military construction companies, and opening military academies and institutions to public students.”
The Hong Kong daily cites the case of senior Naval officers sending warships abroad to smuggle home appliances and cars. This will change now.
Mr Xi has decided to shake up the PLA’s different branches by establishing a joint operational command structure for the land forces by year end and restructuring the seven Military Areas Commands into five combat or strategic zones.
The Jinan MAC, for example, is said to be ‘finishing its historical mission’; it would be dismantled along with the other MACs on December 20.  The South China Morning Post commented: “The restructure is part of Xi’s massive military overhaul, which aims to shift the PLA from an Army-centric system towards a Western-style joint command, in which the Army, Navy and Air Force are equally represented.”
Last month, in a long speech carried by Xinhua, Mr Xi gave a rather detailed report on the planned reforms. Mr Xi asserted: “Under the leadership of the Communist Party, our military has gone from small to big, from weak to strong, from victory to victory. On this road, reform and innovation steps have never stopped.”
Reuters commented: “The troop cuts are part of long-mooted reforms to simplify and further professionalise the military, especially command and leadership structures that are still largely run along Soviet lines.”
What is the objective of this exercise apart from cutting the corruption rampant in each department? The declared purpose of the exercise is to have, by 2020, a military setup ‘capable of winning information-age warfare’. ‘Efficiency’ is clearly the new mantra.
It is obvious that if China wants to pick a fight with the US or Japan or even with its smaller neighbours, its Armed Forces need to be ready. Today, they are not.
Streamlining and downsising of the military will start from the CMC. By focusing on major functions and merging similar functions, the multiple-department CMC should become more efficient to supervise and coordinate the defence forces.
The ratio between the Army, Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force (the strategic forces) will need to be re-balanced to take care of “the increasingly complicated global situation faced by the world’s largest rising power,” said The Global Times.
Apparently, a large number of staff will be out of jobs, mainly in the political department. How will the retirees take this?
The Ministry of National Defence spokesman explained that “veterans are valuable to the party and country, as they have completed strict training and important tasks, and will be granted special job placement policies upon transfer or retirement.” Easier said than done!
The PLA Daily recently published a commentary: “Whether one gets to stay or is retired, officers and soldiers will inevitably have their own thoughts and may become unstable.”
It called for those who will lose their positions to “jump out of the box of self-interest …those with ulterior motives, officers and soldiers must maintain their ideological and political convictions.” It acknowledges that it will require that the high-level authorities and senior cadres provide the example.
It was also announced that a new branch of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will be setup within the CMC. All officers may not welcome this. Already on November 18, before the ‘reforms’ were announced, The Trend magazine, published in Hong Kong mentioned a gunshot fight between a military law enforcement team and some corrupt officers of the Shanxi Military Region.
The general staff and the general political departments had sent a joint military inspection team to the Region’s Entertainment Club. During the unexpected visit, the inspectors ordered some officers ‘having-good-time’ to show their IDs. The officers resisted and started to threaten the law enforcement staff, who had to fire warning shots. After it failed to scare the corrupt officers, the law enforcement team tried to arrest an officer, who was inciting the others.
This shows that Mr Xi’s task is not going to be easy. What do these reforms mean for India? First and foremost, corrupt and untrained Chinese defence forces will become fitter and better prepared for any eventuality, including a conflict with India.
Further, the Indian border will probably come under one MAC instead of two as today; it will greatly improve the efficiency of the Chinese ‘border’ forces.
When General Zhang Yang, a member of the CMC visited Ngari (Western Tibet) after ‘celebrating’ the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan Autonomous Region in early September, he was accompanied by Lt Gen Xu Yong, Commander of the Tibet Military District. It was particularly surprising as Ngari falls under the jurisdiction of the Lanzhou MAC, while General Xu is posted in the Chengdu MAC.
Militarily, it makes sense for China; it also implies that India has a few years to be ready (with the new Mountain Strike Corps for example).  In the past, regional level military commanders have enjoyed warlord-like status over their respective military region, making it difficult to exercise a centralised control which is today necessary… to win a war. This may change.

Reforms in the PLA

From 7 to 4 Military Regions

According to the new reforms recently announced by President Xi Jinping, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) should soon be out of business.
Under the new rules, ‘PLA Inc’ will stop its song and dance, hospitals and other profit-making activities.
Will this help solving the problem of deep-corruption within the Chinese defence forces, is another question.
It is indeed a fact that the PLA, which once upon the time was a Peasants’ Army, has become corrupt, very corrupt and incompetent.
The South China Morning Post commented: “For decades, the PLA has profited from accepting civilian patients at military hospitals, leasing military warehouses to commercial firms, hiring PLA song and dance troupes for public events, outsourcing military construction companies, and opening military academies and institutions to public students.”
Yang Yujun, the Ministry of National Defense’s spokesman told a press briefing: “Bringing a full end to the PLA’s paid services to external parties will purify the military ethos and maintain the nature and the true colour of the people’s army.”
As the Hong Kong daily explains: “The PLA was extensively involved in economic affairs until the late 1990s, when the central leadership realised that the army’s profit-seeking operations had resulted in PLA top brass abusing their special privileges and power by promoting their business interests.” It cites the case of senior naval officers sending warships abroad to smuggle home appliances and cars.
This may change. For the defence forces which represent the most traditional segment of the Chinese society, the new catchword is ‘reforms’.
Beijing seems decided to shake up the PLA’s different branches by establishing a joint operational command structure by 2020 and reducing the existing Military Areas Commands (MACs) from 7 to 4.
In a long speech carried by Xinhua, the Chinese President gave a rather detailed report on the planned reforms. He also reiterated his September pledge to cut by 300,000, the number of the ground forces.
Xi asserted: "Under the leadership of the Communist Party, our military has gone from small to big, from weak to strong, from victory to victory. On this road, reform and innovation steps have never stopped."
Reuters commented: “The troop cuts are part of long-mooted reforms to simplify and further professionalize the military, especially command and leadership structures that are still largely run along Soviet lines.”
What is the objective of this exercise apart from cutting corruption rampant in each Department?
The declared purpose of the exercise is to have, by 2020, a military setup ‘capable of winning information-age warfare’.
It is clear that ‘efficiency’ is the new mantra.
According to Yang Yujun: “The reform plan will focus on the improvement of the leadership and management system, restructuring of CMC’s departments by function reallocation; [and setting up] a joint operational command organization and system to coordinate battle zone commands.”
It is obvious that if China wants to pick up a fight with the United States or Japan or even with its smaller neighbours, its armed forces need to be ready. Today, they are not.
Yang said the streamlining and downsizing of the military will start from the CMC. By focusing on major functions and merging similar functions, the multiple-department CMC should become more efficient to supervise and coordinate the defence forces.
The ratio between the Army, Navy, Air Force and strategic forces (known as Second Artillery Force) will need to be rebalanced to take care of “the increasingly complicated global situation faced by the world's largest rising power,” said The Global Times.
Major General Xu Guangyu, a senior consultant of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association told the Party’s mouthpiece “Establishing a joint operational command system …coupled with the setting up of battle zone commands, could enable the military to conduct operations more efficiently.”
Again, ‘efficiency’!
General Xu further explained: “The joint operational command system will empower battle zone commands, which focus on operations, to deploy troops of all services and arms.”
Rear Admiral Yang Yi of the PLA navy, told the same publication that the reforms will help “training troops of all services in coordination from the very beginning, to ensure that they can work together closely in combat.”
Apparently, a large number of staff will be out of jobs, mainly in the Political Department. How will the retirees take this?
The Ministry of National Defence spokesman explained that “veterans are valuable to the Party and country, as they have completed strict training and important tasks, and will be granted special job placement policies upon transfer or retirement.” Easier said than done!
It was also announced that a new branch of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) will be setup within the CMC. All officers may not welcome this. Already on November 18, before the ‘reforms’ were announced, The Trend Magazine, published in Hong Kong mentioned a gunshot fight between a military law enforcement team and some corrupt officers of the Shanxi Military Region.
The General Staff and the General Political Departments had sent a Joint Military Inspection and Law Enforcement Team to the Region’s Entertainment Club. During the unexpected visit, the inspectors ordered some officers ‘having-good-time’ to show their IDs. The officers resisted and started to threaten the law enforcement staff, who had to fire warning shots. After it failed to scare the corrupt officers, the law enforcement team tried to arrest an officer, who was inciting the others. At that point in time, some of the corrupt officers attacked the inspectors with gunshots.
This shows that Xi’s task is not going to be easy.

What do these reforms mean for India?
First and foremost, corrupt and untrained Chinese defence forces will be fitter and better prepared for any eventuality, including a conflict with India.
Further, the Indian border will probably come under one MAC instead of two as today; it will greatly improve the efficiency of the Chinese ‘border’ forces.
When General Zhang Yang, a member of the CMC visited Ngari (Western Tibet) after ‘celebrating’ the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan Autonomous Region in early September, he was accompanied by Lt Gen Xu Yong, Commander of the Tibet Military District. It was particularly surprising as Ngari falls under the jurisdiction of the Lanzhou MAC, while General Xu is posted in the Chengdu MAC. Why was Xu in Ngari?
It probably means that the reorganization of the MACs has already started.
Militarily, it makes sense for China; it also implies that India has 5 years to be ready (with the new Mountain Strike Corps for example).

Another sign of the forthcoming changes
A few days later, Yu Zhengsheng, a member of the Politburo’s Standing Committee (No 4 in the Party) attended the commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Accompanied by General Zhao Keshi, head of PLA's General Logistics Department, Yu visited the troops posted in the restive region.
Yu spoke of a 'protracted war' against terrorism. Reuters, quoting The PLA Daily, noted that the PLA in Xinjiang are at the ‘centre of the storm’ when it comes to fighting militants and separatists: “Their job is more than just fighting,” said the article, “pointing to the thousands of activities they have arranged in the last five years going into villages to ‘explain the party’s ethnic and religious policies ... and refute rumours.”
This could be one more reason why Beijing is thinking of bringing the entire Tibet and Xinjiang under the same MAC. It is however a fact that operational integration of complex and disparate systems across the command structure will be a major challenge.
In the past, regional level military commanders have enjoyed warlord-like status over their respective military region, making it difficult to exercise a centralized control which is today necessary …to win a war. This may change.
In any case, the ‘reforms’, even if they face difficulties, are a clear message to China’s neighbours: get ready!