« La succession du dalaï-lama n’est pas qu’une question spirituelle, c’est un levier géopolitique »

My article in Le Monde
Claude Arpi, spécialiste du Tibet : « La succession du dalaï-lama n’est pas qu’une question spirituelle, c’est un levier géopolitique »

Here is the link...

Alors que le chef spirituel bouddhiste doit fêter ses 90 ans le 6 juillet, l’historien et tibétologue appelle, dans une tribune au « Monde », la communauté internationale à ne pas rester passive face à la mainmise de la Chine sur le Tibet.

Les célébrations pour le 90e anniversaire de Tenzin Gyatso ont débuté cette semaine à Dharamsala, en Inde, et une prise de parole du quatorzième dalaï-lama est attendue mercredi 2 juillet. Figure mondiale de la paix, défenseur infatigable de la non-violence, il incarne depuis plus de soixante ans la mémoire vivante du Tibet libre et la conscience spirituelle de millions de bouddhistes. Mais cet anniversaire symbolique met en lumière une question cruciale et largement ignorée du grand public : sa succession.

Traditionnellement, le dalaï-lama est reconnu comme la réincarnation d’un bodhisattva – un être éveillé voué à la compassion envers les êtres humains. Sa désignation ne relève ni du hasard ni d’une élection politique, mais d’un processus religieux complexe fondé sur la reconnaissance de signes spirituels. Cette transmission a toujours été assurée par les autorités religieuses du Tibet.

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Dalai Lama in the US: 5 Burning Questions | in conversation with Claude Arpi | News9 Plus Show

My interview with News9

Dalai Lama in the US: 5 Burning Questions | in conversation with Claude Arpi | News9 Plus Show
 
The US on June 12, 2024, passed the Resolve Tibet Act that urges Beijing to re-engage with Tibetan leaders for a peaceful resolution with China. The Act is awaiting President Joe Biden's signature. Will there be fresh tensions between the US and China over Tibet? Analysing the scenarios are News9 Plus Editor Sandeep Unnithan along with Claude Arpi, a Tibetologist. Watch this topical discussion and don’t forget to like, share and subscribe for more such geopolitical discussions.

Can US Pressure Xi on Tibet?

Programme on News9

As India continues to grapple with Chinese aggression along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, a high-profile delegation of US lawmakers, led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has met with the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala. This visit comes as the US House of Representatives has passed the Tibet Resolve Bill, which calls on Beijing to resume dialogue with the Dalai Lama and other Tibetan leaders about the governance of Tibet.

In this video, we explore the potential implications of this development and whether India can leverage the "Tibet card" to offset the pressure it faces from China on the border. Joining us to discuss this are Claude Arpi, a renowned author and Tibetologist, and Dr. Rajan Kumar from the Jawaharlal Nehru University, along with our in-studio expert, Deepak Bhadana.

Tune in to this insightful discussion as we analyze the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and the potential opportunities for India to assert its position on the global stage.

With China willing to discuss 'Dalai Lama’s future', Tibetan fate hangs in balance

When Modi was Chief Minister of Gujarat

My article With China willing to discuss 'Dalai Lama’s future', Tibetan fate hangs in balance appeared in Firstpost

Beijing has not called Dalai Lama a ‘separatist’ leader; instead, it has shown interest in discussing his ‘personal future’
With China willing to discuss 'Dalai Lama’s future', Tibetan fate hangs in balance

On May 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a public meeting in Mandi to support Bollywood actress and BJP candidate Kangana Ranaut. In the course of his speech, he mentioned Tibet, something he rarely does. According to a press release from the PMO, Modi asserted: “The Congress government was so timid that it was afraid to even mention the name of Dalai Lama Ji. I frequently engage in discussions with Dalai Lama Ji. He is a stalwart of our rich heritage. India is the land of Buddha, and the Modi government has been actively promoting this heritage.”
The ‘frequent discussions’ are not in the public domain; we only know that from time to time, a phone call is made from Delhi to Dharamsala on the Dalai Lama’s birthday.
This statement, however, raises the issue of Tibet, which seems to have been dormant for years.
The political head of Tibet’s government-in-exile, Penpa Tsering, recently visited the United States and Canada. Everywhere, the Sikyong conveyed the urgent situation in Tibet “highlighting China’s efforts to eradicate Tibet’s distinct culture and identity and assimilate the Tibetan people”.
During an encounter with the Tibetan Diaspora, Penpa Tsering noted that the priorities and policies of his government were to enhance the stability and efficiency of departments within the Central Tibetan Administration and implement the Dalai Lama’s Middle Way policy.
He admitted that he was in contact with Beijing; according to Firstpost, the Sikyong stated: “We have had back-channel engagement since last year. But we have no immediate expectations from it. It has to be a long-term one.” Penpa Tsering, however, insisted that the talks were “very informal”.
PTI quoted him, saying, “I have my interlocutor who deals with people in Beijing. Then there are other elements also trying to reach out to us.”
Beijing was quick to retort: “[We] will talk only with the representatives of the Dalai Lama and not the officials of the Tibetan government-in-exile.”
The positive side was that Beijing did not call the Dalai Lama a separatist and instead said it was ready to discuss his “personal future”.
This has been Beijing’s position for the past four decades: the discussions can only be about the Dalai Lama’s future.

The Future
This, however, raises the issue of the future of Tibet and the Tibetan people.
In the early 1980s, the Dalai Lama envisaged a Middle Path approach, probably based on the “One Country, Two Systems” slogan coined by Deng Xiaoping at the end of the 1970s.
The Tibetan leader elaborated his vision for the future in two documents, a Five-Point Peace Plan in 1987 in Washington, DC, and his Strasbourg Proposal in 1988.
The first of the five points was “transformation of the whole of Tibet into a zone of peace”, a concept certainly appealing for India; another point was “respect for the Tibetan people’s fundamental human rights and democratic freedoms”.
The ‘Zone of Peace’ would soon be dropped, and the riots in Lhasa in 1989 and the subsequent imposition of martial law demonstrated the limits of the second.
In his Strasbourg Proposal, the Dalai Lama spoke of “the whole of Tibet known as Cholka-Sum (U-Tsang, Kham and Amdo) should become a self-governing democratic political entity founded on law by agreement of the people for the common good and the protection of themselves and their environment, in association with the People’s Republic of China”.
This was before the events of Tiananmen Square; before June 1989, there were probably chances that China could join the concert of democratic nations and be a normal state.
Ten rounds of negotiations took place between the Dalai Lama’s representatives (the CTA’s representatives have always been banned in Beijing) between 2002 and 2010. This led nowhere.

China, a Great Power
Things have changed since then; China has become the second most important economic player in the world, while the situation within the Middle Kingdom has grimly deteriorated since 2012, at least in terms of individual liberty.
Today, after the recent events in Hong Kong and the military threats against the ‘renegade island’ (Taiwan), ‘One Country, Two Systems’ cannot be envisioned anymore. This makes the situation in Tibet (and in Xinjiang, the other Chinese colony) more precarious than ever.

Taiwan
In February, a Chinese writer living in exile, Yuan Hongbing, revealed that China planned to use the Kuomintang’s (KMT’s) influence in Taiwan’s legislature to boost its United Front strategy. Yuan said that the information came from a “princeling” (son of a Chinese revolutionary leader) whom Xi Jinping does not dare to challenge. According to Chinascope, a US website carrying information on the Mainland, “the CCP is not just using military intimidation to destabilise Taiwan; it is also using propaganda, the deployment of agents, and the expansion of the KMT’s legislative power to override the Taiwanese administration.”
Last week, Chinese military spokesperson senior Colonel Wu Qian told a press conference that China’s reunification is an irreversible trend in history and that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is ready to take resolute actions to counter any “Taiwan independence”.
Soon after Lai Ching-te took charge as Taiwan’s president on May 20, the Chinese military warned Taiwan that “independence” would mean “war” and Beijing would thwart any foreign interference in support of “separatist activities” in the democratic-ruled island.
The recent military drills that followed were more to ‘scare the chicken’ than a rehearsal, as an ‘influence’ takeover will certainly be less costly and risky for Beijing. Yuan added that “the CCP’s Taiwan policy has shifted from coercion and enticement to psychological warfare, aiming to demoralise Taiwanese.”

Deterioration in Hong Kong
Around the same time, the BBC reported that a court in Hong Kong “found 14 pro-democracy activists guilty of subversion in the largest use yet of a China-imposed National Security Law. They included former lawmakers Leung Kwok-hung and Helena Wong, journalist-turned-campaigner Gwyneth Ho, and ordinary Hong Kongers who joined the mass protests of 2019, such as nurse Winnie Yu”.
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee took Beijing’s side and declared that his government will do its “utmost to prevent, suppress, and impose punishment” for any activities “endangering national security”.

Situation in Tibet
In Tibet, the situation is also rapidly deteriorating. A report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) noted, “Since 2016, the Chinese government has dramatically accelerated the relocation of rural villagers and herders in Tibet. The government says that these relocations—often to areas hundreds of kilometres away—are voluntary.” The Chinese rationale was to “improve people’s livelihoods and protect the ecological environment”.
Using over 1,000 official Chinese media articles between 2016 and 2023, as well as government publications and academic field studies, HRW said that China’s own media reports showed that participation in “whole-village relocation” programmes in Tibet is in fact compulsory. “In one case, 200 households out of 262 in the village did not initially want to relocate to a new location, which was nearly 1,000 kilometres away. In another village scheduled for relocation, all the residents except for a Chinese Communist Party activist initially disagreed with the plan to move the village,” said the report.
HRW could not find a single case where a village scheduled for relocation was able to avoid being moved.
What is left of the ‘genuine autonomy’ the Dalai Lama was dreaming of in the 1980s? Probably not much today.

Another Report

The Washington-based International Campaign for Tibet reported in May that the Buddhist Association of China (BAC), a non-political organisation, “is becoming a key instrument in the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy to assimilate and transform Tibetan Buddhism, particularly in relation to the search for and recognition of reincarnate lamas”.
When it speaks of the ‘sinification of Buddhism’, Beijing is obviously thinking of the succession of the Dalai Lama.
Since President Xi Jinping’s announcement of his intent to sinify all the religions in China, the BAC has been “mandated as the tool to implement campaigns that will contribute to its fruition, particularly in connection with Tibetan Buddhism”.
Founded in 1953, the BAC’s charter was amended in 2020 to include “Sinification of Buddhism in China”, one of its objectives in order to “support the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the socialist system, study and implement Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and adhere to the direction of the Sinification of Buddhism in China”.
During the recent Two Sessions held in Beijing in March 2024, Wang Huning, the Party’s chief ideologue, mentioned that the BAC “carried out 10 research and inspections in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Tibet-related counties in Sichuan Province on promoting the sinification of Tibetan Buddhism”.
In the present circumstances, hopes for a better tomorrow are presently limited.

One can only hope that when the Indian prime minister calls the Dalai Lama on July 6 to wish him on his 89th birthday, the Tibetan leader will be able to convince PM Modi that the fates of Tibet and India are intimately linked, in particular as far as the boundary between them is concerned.

From Tibet To India: Looking Back At Dalai Lama’s Journey

The program of Nitin Gokhale ('Simply Nitin') of StatNewsGlobal quotes me.
Here is the Video...

It was this week sixty-five years ago that will remain etched in the minds of Tibetans as a watershed. On March 31, 1959, His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, entered India to seek refuge. It was a particularly troublesome month for the Tibetan administration when Chinese troops marched into Tibet and took control. The Dalai Lama was barely 23 then and there was a sense that he could be arrested by PLA troops.

On March 17, 1959, the Dalai Lama, his family members and some of his close associates left the Potala Palace in Lhasa. They travelled south towards the McMahon Line (which separates Tibet from India) and the destination was India, the North East Frontier Agency or NEFA (which is now Arunachal Pradesh).

The Dalai Lama was dressed as an ordinary Chinese soldier. The journey took about a fortnight, through inhospitable terrain and mountain passes. They also had to watch out whether Chinese soldiers were on their trail.

In one of his blogs, noted Tibetologist and author Claude Arpi gives a vivid description of what followed.

Sixty Five Years Ago: The Dalai Lama crosses over to India

An article written five years ago...

At a time when China says that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is not his ‘personal decision’, but that he should follow the ‘Communist Party’s instructions’, it is important to remember the momentous event which took place sixty years ago in the North East Frontier Agency (NEFA), today’s Arunachal Pradesh.
On March 31, 1959, the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet crossed the Indo-Tibet border at Khenzimane in the NEFA’s Kameng Frontier Division, north of Tawang; a couple of kilometers south, he met a detachment of the Assam Rifles waiting to welcome him at Chuthangmu.
Since then, he has been an honoured guest of India.
Four days earlier, the 24-year-old Tibetan leader had sent a message to Jawaharlal Nehru, the Prime Minister of India: “Ever since Tibet went under the control of Red China and the Tibetan Government lost its powers in 1951, I, my Government officers and citizens have been trying to maintain peace in Tibet, but the Chinese Government has been gradually subduing the Tibetan Government.
He further stated: “The Tibetans have great love for and faith in Buddhism and their religion is more precious to them than their lives. In order to root out Buddhism, the Chinese published some articles in the press against Lord Buddha’s teachings and circulated them widely. This has created [an] unhappy atmosphere amongst the Tibetans and they have started disliking intensely the Chinese Administration.”
The Dalai Lama told Nehru about the circumstances of his departure: “On March 17 at 4 pm, the Chinese fired two shells in the direction of my residence. They could not do much damage. As our lives were in danger, I and some of my trusted staff managed to escape the same evening at 10 pm.”
The party headed south and reached Lhuntse Dzong, north of the NEFA on March 26, after what has been termed as the Escape of the Century. The Dalai Lama observed: “India and Tibet have had religious relations for thousand years and they are like brothers without any differences;” he then requested Nehru for asylum: “In this critical situation we are entering India via Tsona [last town north of Tawang]. I hope that you will please make necessary arrangements for us in the Indian territory.”
Ever since, India has looked after the Tibetan leader’s welfare.

The Arrival in India
On March 27, TS Murty, the Assistant Political Officer was told to rush from his headquarters in Tawang to the border; on March 31 in the morning, he reached Chuthangmu in time to receive the Tibetan Lama.
The Dalai Lama’s advance party, under a junior officer, had already come two days earlier; they had informed the Assam Rifles that the main group consisted of the Dalai Lama, his family, his two tutors and three ministers; they were expected to enter India soon. Indian officials were also told that there was no sign of a Chinese pursuit; the party only needed more porters once they entered India.
A secret report sent to Delhi observed: “At 1400 hours on March 31, the Dalai Lama and his party reached Kenze Mane [Khenzimane] which demarcates the frontier in Chuthangmu area. His Holiness was riding a yak and was received by the Assistant Political Officer, Tawang. They proceeded to the checkpost without halting at the frontier.”
It was agreed that all porters, who had come from Tibet, would be sent back and that porterage arrangements thereafter would be made by the Government of India; the report continued: “It was also agreed that all pistols and revolvers, except those in possession of the Dalai Lama, his family and ministers (excluding their servants), and all rifles would be handed over to us for safe custody and that these could be collected at the frontier by those members of the body guard who were to return to Tibet after escorting the Dalai Lama to the plains or that alternatively, we would keep that in our custody and obtain disposal orders from the Government.” It is doubtful if the Dalai Lama himself had a pistol.
A reply from the Prime Minister to the Dalai Lama’s message was received through KL Mehta, Advisor to the Government of Assam on April 3: “I received Your Holiness' message only yesterday on my return to Delhi. My colleagues and I welcome you and send you greetings on your safe arrival in India. We shall be happy to afford the necessary facilities for you, your family and entourage to reside in India. The people of India who hold you in great veneration will no doubt accord their traditional respect to your person.”
Sixty years later, the veneration remains.

The Dalai Lama’s account
Let us come back a few days earlier.
In his memoirs, Freedom in Exile, the Dalai Lama narrated his last days in Tibet: “From Lhuntse Dzong we passed to the small village of Jhora and from there to the Karpo pass, the last before the border. Just as we were nearing the highest point of the track we received a bad shock. Out of nowhere, an aeroplane appeared and flew directly overhead. It passed quickly - too quickly for anyone to be able to see what markings it had - but not so fast that the people on board could have missed spotting us. This was not a good sign. If it was Chinese, as it probably was, there was a good chance that they now knew where we were. With this information they could return to attack us from the air, against which we had no protection. Whatever the identity of the aircraft, it was a forceful reminder that I was not safe anywhere in Tibet. Any misgivings I had about going into exile vanished with this realisation: India was our only hope.”
As the party was spending its last night in a small village called Mangmang; it suddenly began to rain: “This was on top of a week of appalling weather, which threw blizzards and snow glare at us by turns as we straggled along. We were all exhausted and it was the last thing that we needed, but it continued torrentially throughout the night,” remembered the Dalai Lama.
Though the young leader was very sick, he decided to move on: “I now had the difficult task of saying goodbye to the soldiers and freedom fighters who had escorted me all the way from Lhasa, and who were now about to turn and face the Chinese. There was one official too who decided to remain. He said that he did not think that he could be of much use in India, therefore it would be better to stay and fight. I really admired his determination and courage.”
It is how the Dalai Lama arrived in India sixty years ago: “After bidding these people a tearful farewell, I was helped on to the broad back of a dzomo, for I was still too ill to ride a horse. And it was on this humble form of transport that I left my native land.”
On the back of a yak!

A Report from the Political Officer
Har Mander Singh, the Political Officer (PO) of the Kameng Frontier Division received the Tibetan leader in Lumla, south of the border, mid-way to Tawang.
Har Mander informed Delhi that after crossing to India, the Dalai Lama had moved south, passed the historical Gorsam Stupa, reached Shakti village the next day and Lumla on April 3.
Here the PO had long discussions with the Tibetan officials and the Dalai Lama: “the [Tibetan] Foreign Minister [Thupten Liushar] briefly recounted the circumstances under which the Dalai Lama was forced to leave Tibet. About the relations between China and Tibet, he said: “…The Government of Tibet was, however, in possession of documents refuting Chinese claim of suzerainty over them and in support of theirs being an independent country.”
Liushar said that the Dalai Lama himself had felt that he should work in harmony with the Chinese: “Indeed during his visit to India [in 1956] he was advised by the Indian Prime Minister himself to cooperate with the Chinese in the interest of his country.”
In spite of the Dalai Lama’s effort to accommodate the Chinese viewpoint, “the Chinese interfere in the religious affairs of the Tibetans... They had desecrated several monasteries in Kham Province and had also killed several incarnate Lamas,” wrote the PO.
The Indian officials were informed how the Dalai Lama had decided to escape via the Southern route as the only Chinese garrison (of about 600) on the way was in Tsethang where the Chinese: “were surrounded by the rebel [guerilla] troops and Tibetan Government forces and could not, therefore, interfere with the movement of the party.”
Before moving on to India, the Dalai Lama had established an exile Government in Lhuntse Dzong.
Later, on the way to India, the Tibetans mentioned the aircraft flying over them near Tsona; it could well have been an Indian airplane from Squadron 106, mentioned by Wing Commander ‘Jaggi’ Nath in a recent interview to Rediff.com.
The Tibetan ministers informed the Indian officials that: “The policy of the Chinese was becoming increasingly anti-religious; the masses of Tibet were restive and he was no longer able to make them put up with the Chinese rule; the Chinese had attempted to endanger [the Dalai Lama’s] person; Tibet should be free; his people would fight to win their freedom; he was confident that India’s sympathies are with the Tibetans; the seat of his Government had shifted from Lhasa to Lhuntse Dzong.”
The program of the party was briefly discussed, reported Har Mander Singh: “The Foreign Minister indicated that they might like to stay up to ten days in Tawang. I explained briefly the disadvantages of their prolonged stay in Tawang and said that we could perhaps make them more comfortable in Bomdi La. I made it clear, however that we were prepared to accede to the Dalai Lama’s wishes. The Foreign Minister said that it would be possible to cut down their stay in Tawang to about three days.”
Har Mander Singh assured Liushar that India would provide all facilities for travel beyond Tawang to all persons accompanying the Dalai Lama, but there was danger that stray persons escaping from Tibet may take this opportunity and come in along with the main party. He wanted a full list of persons entering India, as comprehensive and accurate as possible, he said.
During the following weeks, 12,000 refugees would cross the border; the exodus will continue for several years.
The rest is history.

Crossing the border

Assam Rifles Guard of Honour in Tawang

The Dalai Lama's Mother in Bomdila

With PO Har Mander Singh

In Tawang

In Siliguri with PN Menon, former Indian Consul general in Lhasa

Rahul Sankrityayan’s Tibet connect debunks false Chinese narrative

Mahapandita Rahul Sankritayan and Gedun Choepel

My article Rahul Sankrityayan’s Tibet connect debunks false Chinese narrative appeared in Firstpost

Sankrityayan’s four visits to Tibet are fascinating as they are a vibrant proof of the century-old linkages between India and Tibet—a fact denied by Communist China today—and a proof that Tibet is truly a child of Indian civilisation

Here is the link...

During the annual ‘Two Meetings’ in Beijing, it was announced that China’s defence budget for 2024 would be $231.36 billion, an increase of 7.2 per cent from the previous year (about thrice the size of the Indian defence budget); it is a large increase, especially when one knows that official figures are only a fraction of the actual spending by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
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Li Jie, a Beijing-based naval expert, told the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece The Global Times: “By 2027, the Chinese military will have the ability to effectively deal with threats brought by hegemonism and power politics in the western Pacific region, including issues relating to the Taiwan question and the South China Sea, as well as border tensions between China and India.”
It is clear that the increase in the Chinese budget is targeting not only Taiwan, the ‘rebel island’, but also India.
In these circumstances, it is necessary for Delhi to think ‘out of the box’.

One of the many alternatives is to supplement military preparedness with ‘Historical Warfare’; this would not cost much to the exchequer and would help refocus and motivate the defence forces on the border.
It would also put the boundary question in its proper historical perspective; for millennia, Northern India has been contiguous to Tibet, an independent nation till the end of the 1950s, not to China; the same is true for Eastern Turkestan (now called Xinjiang).
In this context, I recently became acquainted with the fascinating life of Mahapandita Rahul Sankrityayan, one of the greatest Indian scholars who wrote some 130 books.

He was a great wandering scholar, spending 45 years of his life away from home on Asian and Western roads.
Rahul Ji, as he was known by his followers, was born Kedarnath Pandey to an Orthodox Hindu Brahmin family in Pandha village of Azamgarh district in Uttar Pradesh on April 9, 1893. He was the eldest child of six siblings. Though he only received a formal education up to grade eight (in Urdu language in his village), Sankrityayan later mastered some 34 languages.
His maternal grandfather, Ram Sharan Pathak, an ex-soldier, with his innumerable tales of valour and adventure, planted the seed of love for travelling in him; already at the age of 9, he ran away from home ‘to see the world’ and only after having visited Calcutta and Varanasi did he return to complete his middle school.
One of his biographers wrote: “Sankrityayan’s life, work, and ideas were steeped in and spread through many cultures, disciplines, and geographies. Born in a Sanatani Brahmin family, he lived variously the life of a Vaishnava sadhu, an Arya Samaji polemicist, a Buddhist monk, an antiquarian and scholar of Buddhism, a political activist jailed for anti-colonial speeches (1920 and 1923–1925) and beaten up by the henchmen of landlords in a peasant movement in Bihar (1939), a self-professed communist, a progressive writer, a novelist, a historian, a biographer, a language activist, a linguist, lexicographer, and so forth.”

Sankrityayan indeed lived multiple lives in one, always ready to change his worldview while remaining profoundly human.
From 1914 till 1930, he lived as a Vaishnava sannyasi; in 1939, Rahul Ji converted to Buddhism; this did not stop him from participating in the freedom movement, and between the years 1936 and 1944, he was actively involved in the peasant movement. During this period, he spent 29 months in jail (1940–42) for being a member of the Communist Party of India.
When free, he extensively travelled to Sri Lanka, the Soviet Union, the Far East, Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, and Western Europe.
Sankrityayan’s four visits to Tibet are fascinating as they are a vibrant proof of the century-old linkages between India and Tibet (a fact denied by Communist China today) and a proof that Tibet is truly a child of Indian civilisation (as the Dalai Lama likes to put it).
It is important in the present tense context of Sino-Indian relations to not forget this.
During his trips to Tibet, this polymath managed to bring back to their land of origin some 1,619 valuable manuscripts and thankha paintings; he employed 16 mules to bring the precious loads to Bihar, where they are today kept in a special section of the Patna Museum.

In Tibet, Rahul Ji met his Tibetan ‘counterpart’, probably the greatest Tibetan scholar of the first part of the 20th century, Gendun Choepel. Rahul Ji called him ‘Geshe’ (‘Kalyanamitra’ in Sanskrit) or ‘Brother in the Dharma’. In Tibet, Geshe denoted a high degree of knowledge and was equivalent to a PhD in Buddhist studies.

The Mahapandita recounted: “My first meeting with Geshe took place in Lhasa. He was a disciple of Geshe Sherab, the most learned pandit of Drepung, the largest monastery in Tibet. Geshe Sherab was an authority on philosophy; thus, his disciple would also be a student of the same subject.”
However, Gedun was not only a student of philosophy; he was also a poet and had mastered traditional and modern Tibetan painting: “As a talented artist, he could live a comfortable life in Lhasa. However, Geshe never aspired to a comfortable life.”
Like Rahul Ji, Gedun was a wanderer, an adventurer, with an insatiable thirst for knowledge, always wanting to acquire more knowledge.
Sankrityayan recalled: “[In 1934> I realised that his depth of classical learning combined with his artistic background would be invaluable to me in the search for ancient MSS [manuscripts>… On his part, he wanted to accompany me to India and see and learn more. We became friends from that time onwards.”
Thus started the search for the lost manuscripts of Nalanda and the other great viharas of Northern India; the two pandits wanted to rediscover the centuries-old linkage between India and Tibet.
They first visited the ancient monasteries north of Lhasa, then they went to Reting monastery, established in the 11th century: “Tibet has a scanty rainfall, and at the time of our arrival, richly painted thangkas had been hung out for an airing. Geshe’s heart leapt at the sight. They were of Indian workmanship, and it is also possible that they had been brought from India.” They copied them.
In his memoirs, Rahul Ji noted: “My Tibetan journeys were a combination of bitter-sweet experiences—the bitterness as extreme as the sweet. Sometimes, animals to carry us and our goods were as readily provided as a householder’s hospitality. Sometimes, though we ourselves were willing to walk, we could not hire porters, and it was difficult to get a yard of space to rest ourselves.”
His following visit to Tibet was a great success: “I saw many dozens of ancient Sanskrit MMS. I was able to photograph many of them and copy down many by hand.”
The day of May 25, 1936, was memorable: “We were informed by Dolma Phodrang [one of the temples in Sakya monastery> that they had received the key to Chakpe Lhakhang… I had very little expectation that I would find a Sanskrit manuscript there. After arriving, I turned to the left and found the first stockroom. The door and doorframe seemed centuries old. Who knows how many years of dust must have been collected? On one occasion, dust spread so profusely that the whole stockroom was blanketed as if in smoke.”
The Mahapandita continued his exploration: “We waited a little and then moved in. There was also enough dust on the floor to make footprints. We found hundreds of scriptures there, some wrapped in cloth, while others had been left uncovered. Among them, we found scriptures as old as seven and eight hundred years. These were the texts that had been written and read by great ancient Tibetan masters and scholars. They were precious jewels of Tibetan literature and history.” They had found the lost manuscripts.
Rahul Ji continued to explore the room: “I was searching for palm leaf manuscripts in Sanskrit. After browsing here and there, I found one which was not wrapped in cloth. One, two, three, four… I found twenty manuscripts in all. I opened one and began to look at it. I was overjoyed.”

This discovery symbolises the age-old relationship between Tibet and India.
Today, it is important to remember these ancient linkages (there are many others), which bear testimony to the deep connections between the people of India and Tibet.
If these connections could be revived in any way, it could completely change the perspective of the conflict with China and Beijing’s erroneous narrative for the border ‘dispute’. In the meantime, Beijing should be reminded that Tibet has been (and is still geographically) India’s northern neighbour.
And real heroes like Mahapandita or Geshe should not be forgotten; on the contrary, they should be honoured, and a young generation of historians should be encouraged to boldly follow in the footsteps of the wandering scholars

The only question is can Xi Jinping and his advisors be swift and agile enough to change the tide and restore the trust in the ailing Dragon?

My article The only question is can Xi Jinping and his advisors be swift and agile enough to change the tide and restore the trust in the ailing Dragon? appeared in Firstpost

Year of the Dragon: China's economic challenges and surging uncertainty ahead

Here is the link...

We are entering the Year of the Dragon. It is said that the next 12 months will be energetic; the year may give rise to celebrations and grandiose projects and may even be auspicious for marriage, birth and new beginnings, but it may also be a time of surprises when opportunities can be grasped or lost. Natural disturbances can also be expected.
The element presiding over the coming year is Wood which: “gives an animal mobility and vitality, a supple and balanced creative power, and a quality of softness. Wood years are years of transformation," say the astrologists.

What does it mean for the Middle Kingdom?
We shall not go for any predictions but look at some facts. The Dragon Year will certainly see some great surprises and disturbances in the coming year in China and first in the economic domain.

China’s growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently noted that “uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy is high. The organization expects the world’s second-biggest economy to grow by 4.6% this year and slow down to 4% in 2025,” adding that “the ongoing housing sector crisis could further dampen private demand and confidence and lead to budget strains.”
Last year, the Chinese economy officially grew by 5.2 per cent, but the figures coming from Beijing are most of the time exaggerated.
The IMF report also warned: “Deeper-than-expected contraction in the property sector could further weigh on private demand and worsen confidence, amplify local government fiscal strains, and result in disinflationary pressures and adverse macro-financial feedback loops. Staff estimate that, in such an adverse scenario which entails a deeper and more prolonged contraction in the property sector, GDP in 2025 could be 1.8% lower compared to the baseline (of 4%).”
The IMF believes that weaker exports and lending could exert greater strain.

Housing is an issue
According to The Nikkei, China is grappling with the aftermath of its bursting housing bubble: “Given weak sales and an inventory build-up in the sector, it is now expected to take more than five years for the country to shed excess stock.”
As China’s housing demand will likely fall further due to a shrinking population and rising living standards, the world is bracing for a surge in exports of cheap building materials from the country.
The Tokyo-based publication explained: “Intense price-cutting competition is underway as the country’s housing market becomes saturated. The level of excess stock, calculated by subtracting all the residential floor space sold from the total area of homes built, reached just under 5 billion sq. meters at the end of 2023. Assuming each home has a floor space of 100 sq. meters and three family members, China now has excess space to house 150 million people, equal to about 50 million homes.”

 Gold purchase
Another sign of the weakening of the economy is that gold purchases have soared 30 per cent, mainly because of the businesses’ anxiety.
In another article, The Nikkei said: “Chinese gold purchases rose 30% in 2023, as the country’s central bank bought the commodity to replace its dollar holdings amid tensions with the US and individual investors sought a haven for their assets as the economy stumbled.”
It quoted data from the World Gold Council’s 2023 Gold Demand Trends report: “The world’s central banks acquired 1,037 tonnes of gold last year on a net basis, the second most in data going back to 1950 behind only the 1,082 tonnes for 2022. The People’s Bank of China’s net purchases totaled 225 tonnes, the highest since 1977, the earliest data available for the country.”
The article cited geopolitical risks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which drove up gold purchases in countries like Poland, which bought 130 tonnes last year, and Libya, which acquired 30 tonnes.
It perhaps explains that gold ingots have become popular even with Chinese individual investors.

Deflation
Citing the National Bureau of Statistics, Wion News Channel observed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 0.8 per cent year-on-year drop, marking the most significant decline since September 2009, following a 0.3 per cent decrease in December: “China encountered its deepest deflationary threat since 2009 as consumer prices witnessed a severe decline in January, highlighting the persistent challenges for the world’s second-largest economy in its struggle for recovery.” The news channel further commented: “The persistent deflationary pressure depicted in China’s CPI data underscores the urgency for decisive and swift actions by policymakers to prevent the entrenchment of deflationary expectations among consumers.”
There is no doubt that the post-COVID recovery has been lacklustre.

Foreign companies
On 24 January, the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad published a survey which found that 46 per cent of German companies operating in China believed that their Chinese competitors will become leaders in their respective industries within the next 5 years: “About 83% of German companies surveyed believe that China’s economy is declining, though 64% anticipate this downward trend being just a temporary 2-3 year slowdown.”
The next day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singaporean Chinese-language newspaper said that the Germans found that “the number of German companies withdrawing or considering abandoning the Chinese market has doubled in the past four years. The survey’s findings, which come as China’s economy continues to weaken, highlight the challenges facing German companies operating in China. Top concerns cited by German companies include increased competition from local Chinese companies, unfair restrictions on market access, economic headwinds and geopolitical risks.”
The same Singapore publication commented on the vacancies of office place in Beijing; it observed: “Demand for office space in Beijing has fallen as China’s economy weakens and companies are becoming more conservative about expansion.”
Citing the Chinese economic publication Caixin.com, it added that the vacancy rate for Beijing office space has hit a 13-year high of 20.4 per cent, the first time in recent years that the rate has goes over 20%: “The shrinking technology industry in Beijing, coupled with conservative growth strategies and cost-cutting measures adopted by companies facing stiff economic headwinds, have combined to dampen office rental demand.”
The Caixin explained that the trend was attributable to companies relocating their headquarters out of Beijing, downsizing and taking less rental space, and an overall lack of new demand to replace surrendered office space.

Not overtaking the US
In an interview quoted by Reuters, Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad pointed out the fact that China’s economy “faces a variety of fragilities” and the Middle Kingdom’s economy may not overtake the US’ soon. “The likelihood of the prediction that China’s GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining,” said Eswar Prasad, who served as an IMF official in charge of China.
When asked about his forecast, Prasad answered: “China faces a variety of fragilities, including undesirable demographics, a collapsing real estate market, deteriorating investor sentiment at home and abroad and the lack of clarity over a new growth model. Even a 4 per cent-5 per cent growth rate will be difficult to sustain over the next few years. The likelihood of the prediction that China’s GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining.”
It is a fact that the Chinese stock market has been continuously declining since mid-2023, reaching new lows as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,700 points on 2 February.

How to vent frustration?
On 3 February, the Epoch Times noted an interesting development; many investors who suffered heavy losses flooded the comments section on the official Weibo account of the US Embassy in China.
As the official propaganda machinery controls the Chinese Net, they found a way to vent their frustration, some even imploring the United States to take over the Chinese stock market.
One Chinese investor commented: “We know they are lying, and they know they are lying. They know we know they are lying, and we know they know we know they are lying. But they still keep lying. Can you tell me which ‘glorious era’ this description refers to?”
Another post by the US embassy about the Third Anniversary of the Military Coup in Myanmar was flooded with messages from Chinese stock investors asking for help from the US: “America, please come and rescue the hundreds of millions of A-share investors in deep trouble,” another wrote “Save the poor Chinese stock investors. I love America,” while someone said: “The official media doesn’t let us speak. I come here to request rescue.”
It is certainly not the US which will save the Chinese investors; the only question is can Xi Jinping and his advisors be swift and agile enough to change the tide and restore the trust in the ailing Dragon? One can seriously doubt it.

How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape

My article How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape appeared in Firstpost

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After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity

Nobody, not even the best soothsayers or experts, can explain why the world is suddenly changing so quickly, but remember the prophesy once sung by Bob Dylan, it seems to become true, “For the times, they are a-changin'”.
A sign of the changing time, France has a new prime minister, 34 years of age of a different sexual orientation as the head of the government.
Who could have imagined this a few years ago?
Of course, in India is difficult to understand that such a young ‘inexperienced’ leader, could lead a country with multiple problems, but how old were Adi Shankara or Swami Vivekananda when they changed India in so much depth.
One can’t compare the new French leader to the two above mentioned spiritual giants, but one can hope that fresh blood will be good for France in these ‘changing’ times.

Macron back in India
In the meantime, the French President Emmanuel Macron will be Chief Guest for Republic Day.
I still remember his last State visit in March 2018; addressing a French gathering in Delhi, the President spoke of the Chinese hegemony in the region and said that France was ready to work with India on the oceans: “France is a power of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans; we are present at the Reunion, we are also there in French Polynesia and New Caledonia. And we are a maritime power, it is often forgotten but France is the second maritime power in the world. We have a strong navy, we have nuclear submarines equipped like few other powers in the world; a maritime surveillance capability through our own satellites and technologies; it is obvious we are a military and intelligence power ranking us among the first nations in the world.”
This language was surprising at that time, but one can measure how much the world has changed and particularly the great powers’ views on the Middle Kingdom in the post-Covid era (and post-Eastern Ladakh confrontation for India).
Many more countries have today realized that China can’t be left free to engulf the oceans around.

Twenty Five Years of Strategic Partnership
The 90’s saw a a tremendous boost in bilateral relations with the visits of President Chirac in January 1998 and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s trip to Paris later in the year (incidentally, the new French prime minister is Mr. Attal, with two ‘t’, though the French will not pronounce differently)..
The most striking feature of 1998’s visit was the setting up of a framework for a strategic partnership.
Using a de Gaulle-like language, Jacques Chirac saluted India, “a nation which has affirmed its personality on the world stage”. He said that he had come to show that “France wanted to accompany India in its potent march [towards the future].”
Chirac’s words were not mere political niceties.
When India conducted its nuclear tests in Pokhran in May, France was one of the few countries which did not condemn Delhi (or impose sanctions). This was greatly appreciated in Delhi and when Prime Minister Vajpayee returned Chirac’s visit in October, the new strategic dialogue could take its first concrete steps.
These events set in motion a closer collaboration.

The Deals
The French government has recently submitted a response to India's Rs 50,000 crore tender to purchase 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets for the Indian Navy; according to India Today: “India has initiated the USD 6 billion deal with France for the acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine aircraft, aiming to enhance the Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier capabilities.”
The purchase of three new Scorpene submarines is also in the pipeline.
These deals are expected to be soon finalized.

Reciprocal Collaboration
The collaboration between France and India is multiple and reciprocal. For example, the Paris Region of France is calling for more investments from India.
Valérie Pécresse, President of the Paris Region, recently met Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and Tata Sons chief N Chandrasekaran in Mumbai and asked the Indian entrepreneurs to invest in her region. Pécresse told media: “We are on a charm offensive to win hearts and minds of Indian students, tourists, investors and film makers.”
Today Indians represent fraction of the 50 million tourists visiting Paris; for example, figures say that the number of Australians and Chinese visiting the French capital is far higher than Indians.

Local Collaboration
The collaboration is today getting delocalized. France recently set up an exclusive pavilion at the third edition of the Tamil Nadu Global Investors Meet (GIM), a two-day event from January 7, whose objective was to foster economic ties with India. The Consulate of France in Puducherry and Chennai coordinated the French participation; France was a country partner for the event. The French Pavilion showcased many Paris-based companies including Michelin, Precia Molen, Valeo, Cryolar and Numeric among others.
A communiqué explained: “France is a major source of foreign direct investment for India with more than 1,000 French establishments already present in the country. Tamil Nadu, boasting the second largest economy in India with a Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) exceeding USD 300 billion, stands out as India's most industrialised state, housing over 130 Fortune 500 companies.”

Student Exchange: the Future
Last July 14, during his visit as guest of honour of France during the National Day, Prime Minister Modi among other announcements, mentioned bilateral cooperation, research and higher education. He announced that Paris has accepted to welcome in France 20,000 Indian students by 2025 and 30,000 by 2030.
A roadmap said that the cooperation will be centered on ‘a union of forces’; it will make “sciences, technologic innovation and university cooperation [the] vectors for progress and independence for our two countries”.
A chapter of the roadmap is dedicated to ‘human partnerships’.
France and India are “determined to develop their university bonds and encourage exchanges between students”.
To give a concrete shape to the project, Mumbai University (MU) has decided to join hands with a French university for dual degree program. Students will have to spend six to nine months in France at the University of Troyes on fellowship training as per the dual degree program.
According to a MU communiqué: “The combined expertise from both institutions may lead to potentially groundbreaking research outcomes in nanoscience and nanotechnology. Students enrolling with the Department of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology at MU for postgraduation (PG) will now get dual degree — jointly awarded by the MU and the University of Technology of Troyes in France.”

The Ideal Partners?
During Macron’s 2018 visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of “Five S”, Samman (respect); Samvad (dialogue); Sahayog (cooperation), Shanti (peace), and Samriddhi (prosperity). Paris certainly still agrees with this.
Today, most commentators converge to say that France and India are the ideal partners; in US-based The National Interest, Don McLain Gill wrote: “Among Western countries, France has often been the first to illustrate a mature understanding of India’s position on varied issues ranging from nuclear tests to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.”
Shishir Gupta said in The Hindustan Times: “PM Modi and Macron share a very close chemistry. They often talk to each other about major positions. …When Macron comes to India, the centerpiece will be Atmanirbhar Bharat.”
Gupta mentions the joint research and development of small modular nuclear reactors: “These are nuclear reactors that produce less than 300 megawatts. These reactors are fundamental to nuclear energy. They are also fundamental to the green hydrogen project.”

Joint Development
After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity; this should translate into something not easy to do, even for European partners, i.e. joint developments in new fields of science or technology.
Already public sector giant Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has opened a new design and test facility at its Aero Engine Research and Development Centre (AERDC) in Bengaluru which will be used to test helicopter engines to be co-developed between the French firm Safran and HAL; the engine is to be fitted in the new 13-tonne Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH), which will replace the Russian Mi-17 helicopters.
In February 2023 HAL and Safran had announced a tie-up to produce the engine for the 13-ton helicopter; HAL will participate in the design, development and production of the core engine components. Safran already has a joint venture with HAL to manufacture engines for the advanced light helicopter (ALH), weighing 5.5 tonnes.
Apart from the dream to develop together an engine for the Indian jets, high-tech drones could be another field of future collaboration. Recently, the Indian Navy received its first indigenous medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) built by Adani Defence and Aerospace at its Hyderabad facility (with Israeli transfer of technology).
Why can’t Paris and Delhi decide to develop the drones of tomorrow? Not an easy proposal, but perhaps worth trying.

Claude Arpi | Why Pak politicians need to study Kashmir history

My article Claude Arpi | Why Pak politicians need to study Kashmir history appeared in Asian Age and Deccan Chronicle

Pakistan’s politicians started crying foul over J&K's status, saying that the Indian government’s decision had “no legal value”.

On December 11, 2023, India’s Supreme Court upheld the August 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, which revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and bifurcated the state into two Union territories of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir. Pakistan’s politicians immediately started crying foul, saying that the Indian government’s decision had “no legal value”.
Jalil Abbas Jilani, a minister in the country’s caretaker government, said that “Kashmiris have an inalienable right to self-determination in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions.” Mr Jilani, like most of his colleagues, has probably never read the relevant UN resolutions: we shall soon come to that.
The Pakistani media too believed that this was a “grave injustice” and an “unjust verdict”. On December 12, Dawn said that it was an attempt to rewrite history: “The court’s decision may strengthen India’s stranglehold over Kashmir, but it cannot extinguish the Kashmiris’ strong desire for freedom and dignity.”

So let us speak about history.
While working on the Nehru papers a few years ago, I came across a “Top Secret” note written in the early 1950s by Sir Girja Shankar Bajpai, then secretary-general of the ministry of external affairs and Commonwealth affairs. It was entitled “Background to the Kashmir Issue: Facts of the Case”; and it made fascinating reading.
It starts by a historical dateline: “Invasion of the state by tribesmen and Pakistan nationals through or from Pakistan territory on October 20, 1947; the ruler’s offer of accession of the state to India supported by the National Conference, a predominantly Muslim though non-communal political organisation, on October 26, 1947; acceptance of the accession by the British Governor-General of India on October 27, 1947, under this accession, the state became an integral part of India; expression of a wish by Lord Mountbatten in a separate letter to the ruler the fulfilment of which was to take place at a future date when law and order had been restored and the soil of the state cleared of the invader, the people of the state were given the right to decide whether they should remain in India or not.”
The note also mentioned the invasion of the state by Pakistan regular forces on May 8, 1948; the conditions were clear and in two parts: first the Pakistani troops or irregulars should withdraw from the Indian territory that they occupied and later a plebiscite could be envisaged.
Commenting on the entry of Pakistanis on Indian territory, the note said: “One of the grounds for this [Pakistani] military operation, as disclosed by Pakistan’s foreign minister himself, was a recommendation of the commander-in-chief of Pakistan [a British national] that an easy victory for the Indian Army was almost certain to arouse the anger of the invading tribesmen [raiders] against Pakistan.”
The note also observed: “Pakistan, not content with assisting the invader, has itself become an invader and its army is still occupying a large part of the soil of Kashmir, thus committing a continuing breach of international law.”
Pakistani politicians (and many others) often quote the UN resolutions; very few have read them. The UN resolutions of January 17, 1948, August 13, 1948, and January 5, 1949 (UNCIP Resolutions) made it amply clear that “Pakistan cannot claim to exercise sovereignty in respect of J&K”.
In 2019, the abrogation of Article 370 by the Indian government had triggered a lot of comments from Indian as well as foreign journalists. Most of the scribes were ill-informed about the legality of the issue; while the Indian press dealt with the subject rather decently, it was not so with the foreign press. Why this perennial misinformation or disinformation?
The Government of India is probably to be blamed; the external affairs ministry should have long ago “educated” the media by giving a full historical briefing on all facets of the issue.

But there is yet more: the case of Gilgit.
An interesting announcement appeared in the 1948 London Gazette mentioning that the King “has been graciously pleased… to give orders for… appointments to the Most Exalted Order of the British Empire…” The list included “Brown, Major (acting) William Alexander, Special List (ex-Indian Army)”. Who was this officer?
Maj. Brown is infamous for illegally “offering” Gilgit to Pakistan in 1947.
The British paramountcy had lapsed on August 1, 1947, and Gilgit reverted to the Maharaja’s control. Lt. Col. Roger Bacon, the British political agent, handed his charge to Brig. Ghansara Singh, the new governor appointed by Maharaja Hari Singh. Maj. Brown remained in charge of the Gilgit Scouts.
Despite Hari Singh having signed the Instrument of Accession and joined India, Maj. Brown refused to acknowledge the orders of the Maharaja under the pretext that some leaders of the Frontier Districts Province (Gilgit-Baltistan) wanted to join Pakistan.
On November 1, 1947, probably under order from the British generals, he handed over the entire area to Pakistan.
At the time, the entire hierarchy of the Indian and Pakistan Army was still British. In Pakistan, Sir Frank Messervy was commander-in-chief of the Pakistan Army in 1947-48 and Sir Douglas Gracey served in 1948-51; while in India, the commander-in-chief was Sir Robert Lockhart (1947-48) and later Sir Roy Bucher (1948). It is only in June 1948 that Gen. K.M. Cariappa took over. Let us not forget that Sir Claude Auchinleck (later elevated to Field-Marshal) served as the supreme commander (India and Pakistan) from August to November 1947.
Who can believe that all these senior generals were kept in the dark by a junior officer like Maj. Brown?
It is obvious that Maj. Brown’s British bosses were aware of his “gift” to Pakistan. The fact that he was appointed to the OBE is further proof. The King does not usually appoint “deserters” or “rebels” to the august order.
Amazingly, six years ago, the British Parliament passed a resolution that confirmed Gilgit-Baltistan was part of Jammu and Kashmir. The motion was tabled on March 23, 2017 by Bob Blackman of the Conservative Party. It reads: “Gilgit-Baltistan is a legal and constitutional part of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India, which is illegally occupied by Pakistan since 1947, and where people are denied their fundamental rights, including the right of freedom of expression.”
It incidentally also means that the agreement signed on March 2, 1963 between Pakistan and China about the Shaksgam Valley of the Gilgit Agency being transferred to China is also legally invalid. In 2024, Beijing should plainly be told this and Pakistani politicians should learn their history.

Revisiting 1962

The Namkha chu which witnessed the first battle in October 1962

A recent visit in the forward areas of the Tawang sector opened my eyes wider. Though I have been studying different aspects of the 1962 border war with China for years, it is only by seeing the terrain of the tragic confrontation which turned into a debacle for the 7th Brigade of Brigadier John P. Dalvi, that one can realize the utter incompetence of some of the ‘political’ generals who conducted the battle of the Namkha chu on behalf of the senior leadership in Delhi.
Two conclusions came immediately to mind: first, the disaster wass entirely of the Indian political leadership’s making, particularly from Prime Minister Nehru and a small clique of sycophants around him (such as VK Krishna Menon, BN Mallik, Gen PN Thapar or Lt Gen BM Kaul).
Seeing the scene of the battle, makes you understand that a similar defeat can’t happen anymore. I shall further elaborate on this later.

Escaped Unpunished
What is flabbergasting is that the ‘culprits’ of 1962 never bore any consequences. In his Himalayan Blunder, Brig Dalvi wrote: “General Pran Nath Thapar resigned on ‘grounds of health’ - the hackneyed euphemism for what the British call ‘the bowler hat’. He was rewarded with the Ambassadorship to Afghanistan. Lt Gen BM Kaul, the Commander of the ill-conceived and ill-fated IV Corps, was compelled to seek premature retirement - a bitter pill for Mr. Nehru to swallow - as Kaul was widely believed to have been his protégé and military confidant.”

The Forward Policy
One often speaks of the Forward Policy decided by the government in 1961, as being the trigger for the war; according to Dalvi, during a meeting in the autumn of 1961: “at which Mr. Menon, General Thapar and General Kaul were present. Studying a map showing recent Chinese incursions, Mr. Nehru is reported to have said that whoever succeeded in establishing a post would establish a claim to that territory, as possession was nine-tenths of the law. He then asked if the Chinese could set up posts why couldn't we?”
Gen Kaul later claimed that “(Nehru) was told that owing to numerical and logistical difficulties, we could not keep up in this race with the Chinese. …China with her superior military resources could - operationally make the position of our small posts untenable.”
But wisdom did not prevail.
Seeing the narrowness of the gorge between the Hathungla and the Thagla ridges and the small nallah (the Namkha chu) running between the two giant massifs even a child would understand that the Himalayan stream was not the best defensive place (or even offensive). But Delhi stuck to its guns: “Chinese have to be evicted.”
In his Himalayan Blunder, Brig Dalvi recalled: “My appreciation of September 1962 is a pivotal document. It is capable of various interpretations by different people. Gen Kaul has used copious extracts to weave a claim of reprieval for his impatience and haste between 5th and 10th October (1962). He has manipulated passages to insinuate that he was on occasion a helpless spectator of events …and that he was compelled to implement the defective plans devised at the tactical level.”
The politicians (including the ‘politician’ generals) are masters are justifying their foolishness and blunders, Dalvi recalled: “(Kaul) has muted his role in moving 7th Brigade to the Namka Chu. …He omits the antecedents of the Appreciation and how it came into being, but quotes excerpts to achieve his ends. He has attributed some parts to Gen Umrao [33 Corps Commander] and others to the Brigade Commander.”
Kaul later justified his decision for accepting to be associated with what he called the Government's final desperate gamble: “I was thus expected to perform a miracle and begin operations immediately. I could hardly start bickering (sic) about the obvious handicaps at a time when India found herself in a precarious situation and therefore decided to cross my fingers, make the best of my lean resources (one brigade) and face the situation as best I could.”
The truth was that to force the 7th Brigade to set up posts near the nallah and hope to defend India’s position from there, was criminal.

Tree planted by the Dalai Lama as he arrived in India
on March 31, 1959

Chinese Tactics
Kaul and his patrons in Delhi did not know anything about the Chinese tactics.
The Chinese author Jianglin Li, who has masterfully recorded the movement of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, wrote: “By analyzing many memoirs, autobiographies and biographies, openly published, classified or semi-classified, I found out that the 12 large scale battles fought in central Tibet from March 1959 to early 1962 were in fact conducted as a thoroughly organised military training, beyond the actual requirements of a counter-insurgency operation …commanders were testing the battle strategies best suited to the terrain.”
She cited battles which were clearly fought to gain “experience of fighting with the large unit encircling tactic and carrying out policies in pastoral regions. …It has been proved by many experiences that carrying out encirclement is the most effective method to wipe out large numbers of rebel bandits.” Encirclement was extensively used by the PLA during the border war with India, but Kaul had never heard of this and insisted on climbing the Thagla ridge from the narrow nallah (using log bridges).

Flying Orders
Beginning of October 1962, orders were flying over the ridges, “have all the troops of 7 Brigade moved to Tsangdhar?” asked Kaul. Tsangdhar was a high altitude plateau used as a dropping zone.
When the officer answered, "Not yet, Sir", Kaul demanded: "Why not? It was my definite order that the troops must be in position by the evening of 7th October [1962].”
The newly-appointed Corps Commander then threatened: "How dare you disobey my orders, you are the Brigade Major. I have given an assurance to the Prime Minister that I will carry out the operation.”
In these conditions, it was difficult for Brig Dalvi to ‘disobey’ and realign his forces to better strategic positions, for example on the top of the Hathungla.

Why things are different today
The debacle of 1962 will not be repeated for several reasons.
Today, a brigade commander can take an immediate ‘strategic’ decision on the spot; as the chain of command is clear and respected, the brigade commander first refers to his Division commander who in turn will consult the Corps and Army commanders. Eventually final orders will have to come from the Army HQ in Delhi and the Ministry of Defence.
Today, there is no question of being ‘friends’ with the Prime Minster.
Further, India has tremendously invested in the infrastructure (though the Chinese side has an easier access to the LAC). Having visited the area for the first time in 1996, I have witnessed the unbelievable changes; in a couple of months time, the tunnel below Sela pass will be opened, shortening the journey between Assam and Tawang by one hour.
Another factor is that the Air Force (IAF) will be used; it was recently reported in the aftermath of the Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, that the Indian Air Force airlifted more than 68,000 army soldiers and a variety of military equipment to Eastern Ladakh along the LAC); PTI commented: “This swift deployment was facilitated by a combination of strategic airlift capabilities and increased surveillance measures.”
Would China adventure to cross the LAC, it would have to deal not only with the Indian Army but with the IAF too.
A visit to the historic spots of the 1962 tragic events convinces you that China cannot advance even a few meters without being inflicted heavy casualties. Is Xi Jinping ready for this? Certainly not.
After all what did the Emperor gain in Eastern Ladakh?
Did the Darbuk–Shyok–DBO Road get blocked or stopped? The answer is ‘no’.
Did China gain strategic advantages in Galwan or Pangong tso areas? No.
Did Beijing manage to intimidate India with their Information Warfare? No.
Did the Ladakh ‘adventure’ bring any economic gain to China? The answer is again ‘no’.
Did the operations of May 2020 enhance the prestige Chairman Xi or the PLA? Not in India at least.
The above explains that it is today difficult for Beijing to walk out of the imbroglio and return to prior to the beginning of the confrontation.
Perhaps the Chinese leadership did not expect that the Indian Army would conduct negotiations; Indian soldiers know the value of even a few meters on this range or that ridge.
In conclusion, a look at the terrain and at today’s defence preparedness as well as the change of mindset makes you confident that 1962 debacle cannot and will not be repeated. The incident in the Yangtse sector in December 2022 is another proof of this.

PM Modi in Paris: How Indo-French ties have evolved into an epitome of strategic, economic and cultural cooperation

My article  PM Modi in Paris: How Indo-French ties have evolved into an epitome of strategic, economic and cultural cooperation appeared in Firstpost

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In the present turbulent times, the stability of the relation between Delhi and Paris is important for the world

This year, France and India are celebrating 25 years of their strategic partnership. The visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the chief guest for the parade on the French National Day (Bastille Day) in Paris will be the culmination of this momentous year. It will also witness a host of new agreements between the two nations.
One could believe that Narendra Modi’s decision to purchase 36 Rafale planes ‘off-the-shelf’, during his April visit to Paris in April 2015, was the true beginning of the partnership; it is true that it was a quick, pragmatic and smart move. Delhi brought the IAF’s ‘critical operational necessity’ to the negotiating table while dropping the cumbersome Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft framework. But it was far from being the first bilateral deal in terms of defence.
A letter sent by HS Malik, India’s Ambassador to France to prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru in October 1953 testifies that 70 years ago, France and India were already special friends.
At that time, India purchased 71 Ouragans (known in India as ‘Toofanis’) from the French firm, Dassault.
Though at that time the question of the French settlements in India was not solved; (the de facto transfer of Pondicherry and the three other settlements Yanon, Mahe and Karikal took only place a year later on 1 November, 1954), some trust was obviously already present.
Addressing Nehru, the Indian ambassador wrote: “All of us in the Embassy who have been working on the implantation of the contract with the Defence Ministry for the supply of Ouragan aircraft were greatly relieved and delighted when we got the news that our four pilots with the four Ouragans had reached Palam safely. This flight from France to India has involved a great deal of organizational work for which much credit is due to the team of the Indian Air Force Officers.”
Malik continued: “I venture to bring to your notice the wonderful cooperation that we have received both from the French officers of the Ministry of Defence, from the Cabinet Minister downwards, and from the French industry. We signed the contract only last June. Already four planes have reached India; another 35 are being sent on October the 30th on the aircraft carrier Dixmude, and the remainder, 32 aircraft, will be dispatched in January 1954. I think you will agree that this is indeed prompt execution of the agreement as embodied in the contract between us and the French.”
Malik added: “Our pilots who came here to learn to fly this type of aircraft, which was new to them, won the admiration and respect of the French Air Force and, generally speaking, …in spite of the language handicap, [the pilots] have made friends and won the respect of the people among whom they have lived.” These words speak for themselves.

Old and stable relations
The selection of the Toofanis or the Rafales was a hallmark of the partnership between Delhi and Paris.
Historians usually consider the period between 1947 and 1962 as the first phase of Indo-French relations. Year 1962 was for France the year it constitutionally departed from the subcontinent and for India.
As early as January 1947, though the relations were not too cordial between France and India due to the colonial burden, the French government asked for a 10-year extension of the 1945 agreement permitting military air ferries to fly across India. Nehru, the interim prime minister noted: “Public opinion in India is very much against the use of force by the French Government against the people of Indochina and anything which we do to facilitate the use of this force is bound to be resented and vigorously criticized”, but on 16 July, 1947 an agreement on air services between India and France was signed.
Soon after, an interesting development occurred. Nehru, then interested in the programme ‘Atoms for Peace’, was “anxious to help in every way in developing atomic energy in India”. He decided to unofficially send Homi J Bhabha to enquire about the possibility of collaboration for the peaceful use of atomic energy: “In view of the fact that India possesses very large resources of minerals suitable for the generation of atomic power, India is destined to play an important part in research on atomic energy in cooperation with other countries.”
Homi Bhabha had extremely cordial contacts with Frédéric Joliot-Curie and Raoul Dautry, the first heads of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), founded by de Gaulle in 1945.
The French armament sales during this first phase were relatively large despite the factors mentioned above.
On 22 September, 1962, General de Gaulle received Nehru in Paris. Nehru first congratulated him for the settlement of the Algerian crisis as well as the ratification of the cession of the French Establishments in India. De Gaulle replied that he was happy to see that India had dealt successfully with some of the issues the West had doubts about at the time of independence.
Though the Indian Air Force did not directly take part in the conflict with China, Toofanis, as well as 110 Mystère and 12 Alizée (of Bréguet Aviation), were in service in 1962. Further, 150 AMX 13 light tanks were sold to India after an agreement was signed in 1957 (remember the battle of Chushul in November 1962).
With Dassault, the collaboration continued uninterrupted and in the 1980s India acquired the Mirage 2000.
If president François Mitterrand laid the foundation of a solid friendship with India, the regular dialogue was institutionalised during president Jacques Chirac’s visit in early 1998 through a ‘strategic’ partnership. This is still the base of the present trusted relationship. As for cultural relations, they will go on regardless of who is at the helm of India or France.

Modi in Paris
To be invited as the chief guest at the Bastille Day Parade is a rare honour. French Ambassador in India, Emmanuel Lenain told India Today that the visit would have “maximum impact and maximum outcomes”.
Lenain mentioned “the leaps in defence cooperation, which would be visible at the special military parade. We’re going to have Indian troops marching on the Champs-Elysées at the beginning of Bastille Day, and we have Indian Rafale participating in the fly past.” The ambassador added: “We provide the best technology to India as a close partner and ally. We also provide maximum content of ‘Make in India’, so we have made a good offer. The decision is now really in the hands of Indian authorities.”
The cherry on the cake could be the signature for Rafale-M; the Indian Navy is believed to have expressed a preference for the French fighter plane for its new aircraft carrier.
The Indian Navy is also interested in additional Scorpene-class submarines (six Kalvari submarines were built by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited with French transfer of technology), also in the pipeline, an Airbus deal to manufacture C-295 tactical transport aircraft in Gujarat.
But there is more, after the Indian prime minister managed to get Washington’s agreement for the transfer of jet engine technology; negotiations with Paris should materialise to co-develop a high-thrust engine for the country’s stealth fighter jet programme, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
According to India Today: “France’s Safran is believed to have agreed to completely share its jet engine technology with India to help develop the high-thrust 110kN engine. Safran has already co-developed a helicopter engine for India’s homegrown chopper fleet, and has been negotiating over the fighter jet engine for long.”
It is interesting to note that in recent years, France has emerged as a winner over Russia in defence purchases by India; with the Ukraine war, this trend can only increase.
In another interview with ANI, Lenain explained: “We work in the spirit of partnership, French companies have been the pioneers for years for make in India and now we totally understood the philosophy of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and they really want to share best technologies and to develop jointly in future.”
India and France will also be working on a roadmap for renewed cooperation for the next 25 years, which might be extremely challenging for the planet.
Indeed, India and France have gone a long way during the last 70 years (and especially after 1998). But it is important to remember that when India conducted its nuclear tests in Pokhran in May 1998, France was one of the few countries which did not condemn Delhi (or impose sanctions). This was greatly appreciated in Delhi and when in October 1998 prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee returned president Jacques Chirac’s visit to India, the new strategic dialogue could take its first concrete steps.
These events set in motion a closer collaboration and the indeed present partnership owes much to these two leaders.
From the ‘friendship’ mentioned by General de Gaulle in 1962, the relationship has become a true strategic, economic and cultural partnership.
In the present turbulent times, the stability of the relationship between Delhi and Paris is important for the world.

China in suspense as Xi, 70, has junked succession plan

My article Claude Arpi | China in suspense as Xi, 70, has junked succession plan appeared in Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle

Here is the link...

After Xi Jinping was given a third five-year term as China’s president in March 2023, AP News commented that he was “on track to stay in power for life at a time of severe economic challenges and rising tensions with the U.S. and others. The endorsement of Xi’s appointment by the ceremonial National People’s Congress was a foregone conclusion for a leader who has sidelined potential rivals and filled the top ranks of the ruling Communist Party with his supporters since taking power in 2012.”
While a number of analysts like to make predictions about the succession of the Dalai Lama and its immediate implications, very few think of a sudden departure of the ‘Core Leader’ of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
However in a book entitled Party of One, The Wall Street Journal reporter Chun Han Wong documented what could happen in case of Xi’s sudden death or purge.
But before analyzing Wong’s conclusion let us have a look at the death of Zhou Enlai who should have succeeded Mao, the Great Helmsman, …if it was not in China.
By the end of 1975, both were suffering from cancer, but Mao was keen to see his Premier to leave this world before him as the Premier was more ‘popular’ than him with the masses.
Dr Li Zhisui, the Chairman’s private physician remembered that as Zhou Enlai was dying, Mao never went to see him in the hospital.
On November 29, 1975, when Dr Li visited the Premier, Zhou was too weak to even lift his hand: “That was the last time I saw him. Zhou Enlai died on January 8, 1976,” noted Dr Li.
The doctor remembered that there was hardly any reaction in Group One, Mao’s close guard: “Many of the doctors on Mao’s medical team had also treated Zhou, and they wanted to visit the 305 Hospital [in Beijing] to pay their last respects. When I presented their request to Zhang Yaoci [the commander of the Central Garrison Corps.], his response was swift and stern. The doctors were not permitted to go, and no one was to wear the black armband of mourning.” Mao was jealous of Zhou’s popularity.
Dr Li continued: “As Chinese New Year approached, Zhang Yufeng [Mao’s Secretary and female companion] wanted to celebrate. She suggested that Zhang Yaoci set off firecrackers outside Mao’s residence. Zhang was happy to please her, …the area suddenly swarmed with guards and soldiers from the Central Garrison Corps. Zhongnanhai had long had a ban against firecrackers. … [at the same time] a rumor began circulating that the Chairman was celebrating Zhou’s death with firecrackers.”
This shows that succession is always simple in China.
In Axios China, Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian analyzed: “After the death of Chinese dictator Mao Zedong in 1976, which resulted in years of instability at the party's highest levels, party leaders eventually developed a relatively stable model of succession in which each top leader served for two five-year terms, with a clear successor already waiting in the wings. …But Xi dismantled that system by abolishing term limits, not designating a successor and assuming a third term.”
That is a serious issue for China today.
Wong believes that a drama looms once again: “Xi confronts a timeless conundrum that scholars call the ‘Successor’s Dilemma’. Dictators prefer to choose their own successors, but Xi has so far avoided this path.”
The WSJ correspondent further elaborated: “as the designated successor tries to build power, the political elite will naturally start realigning their loyalties — a process that can undermine the incumbent leader, who may come to fear that the heir apparent is plotting to usurp power.” This happened with Mao’s once heir-apparent, Lin Biao who disappeared in a mysterious plane accident.
It is also probably why the one-time heir apparent Hu Chunhua was dropped during the last Party Congress.
Wong’s conclusion is: "By remaking the party around himself, Xi may have become the weakest link in his quest to build a Chinese superpower.”
On June 15, Xi will be 70 year old.
According to Wong: “The uncertainty over his succession plans keeps the party elite on their toes. …But keeping the suspense for too long could backfire, alienating protégés and antagonizing enemies enough to undermine the leader or even sow the seeds for a coup d’état.”
The WSJ journalist has a point.
Today China is a country with the world’s second-largest population (behind India) and economy (behind the United States).
Further it has one of the most powerful militaries which could be tempted to grab the power in case of a crisis.
A 2010 study, political scientists Alexandre Debs and HE Goemans looked at the fate of some 1,800 political leaders worldwide: “from the late 1910s to the early 2000s. Some 41% of the 1,059 autocrats suffered exile, imprisonment or death within a year of leaving office, compared with just 7% of 763 democratic leaders,” they noted.
On May 26, Wang Junzheng, Party Secretary of the Tibet Autonomous Region gave a speech in Lhasa. Wang asked all cadres to study and implement of Xi Jinping's important instructions on Tibet …and defend the ‘two establishments’, resolutely enhance the ‘four consciousnesses’, firmly stand by the ‘four self-confidence’, achieve ‘two safeguards’, …and promote the strict governance of the Party, in order to vigorously promote the ‘four creations’ and strive to achieve the ‘four leading positions’ and the ‘four in the forefront’.” All this to bring peace and stability on the snowy plateau.
You may not understand this type of Communist jargon, but it hides a real problem, what will happen if the supreme boss goes; this nobody knows.
Ko Wen-je, nominee for the Taiwan's People's Party (TPP) for the next presidential election, recently declared that Xi Jinping's rule over China will not last forever: "If we believe in universal values, then why do we think China will never have democracy and freedom?"
It is fine thought, but it may not happen soon.
Xi himself recently spoke of the complexity and severity of national security problems faced by China: “We must be prepared for worst-case and extreme scenarios, and be ready to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms.”
The fact remains that the system put in place by the ‘Core Leader’ seriously aggravates the already difficult internal and external situation.
India and the World should be prepared for the worst.