How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape

My article How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape appeared in Firstpost

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After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity

Nobody, not even the best soothsayers or experts, can explain why the world is suddenly changing so quickly, but remember the prophesy once sung by Bob Dylan, it seems to become true, “For the times, they are a-changin'”.
A sign of the changing time, France has a new prime minister, 34 years of age of a different sexual orientation as the head of the government.
Who could have imagined this a few years ago?
Of course, in India is difficult to understand that such a young ‘inexperienced’ leader, could lead a country with multiple problems, but how old were Adi Shankara or Swami Vivekananda when they changed India in so much depth.
One can’t compare the new French leader to the two above mentioned spiritual giants, but one can hope that fresh blood will be good for France in these ‘changing’ times.

Macron back in India
In the meantime, the French President Emmanuel Macron will be Chief Guest for Republic Day.
I still remember his last State visit in March 2018; addressing a French gathering in Delhi, the President spoke of the Chinese hegemony in the region and said that France was ready to work with India on the oceans: “France is a power of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans; we are present at the Reunion, we are also there in French Polynesia and New Caledonia. And we are a maritime power, it is often forgotten but France is the second maritime power in the world. We have a strong navy, we have nuclear submarines equipped like few other powers in the world; a maritime surveillance capability through our own satellites and technologies; it is obvious we are a military and intelligence power ranking us among the first nations in the world.”
This language was surprising at that time, but one can measure how much the world has changed and particularly the great powers’ views on the Middle Kingdom in the post-Covid era (and post-Eastern Ladakh confrontation for India).
Many more countries have today realized that China can’t be left free to engulf the oceans around.

Twenty Five Years of Strategic Partnership
The 90’s saw a a tremendous boost in bilateral relations with the visits of President Chirac in January 1998 and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s trip to Paris later in the year (incidentally, the new French prime minister is Mr. Attal, with two ‘t’, though the French will not pronounce differently)..
The most striking feature of 1998’s visit was the setting up of a framework for a strategic partnership.
Using a de Gaulle-like language, Jacques Chirac saluted India, “a nation which has affirmed its personality on the world stage”. He said that he had come to show that “France wanted to accompany India in its potent march [towards the future].”
Chirac’s words were not mere political niceties.
When India conducted its nuclear tests in Pokhran in May, France was one of the few countries which did not condemn Delhi (or impose sanctions). This was greatly appreciated in Delhi and when Prime Minister Vajpayee returned Chirac’s visit in October, the new strategic dialogue could take its first concrete steps.
These events set in motion a closer collaboration.

The Deals
The French government has recently submitted a response to India's Rs 50,000 crore tender to purchase 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets for the Indian Navy; according to India Today: “India has initiated the USD 6 billion deal with France for the acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine aircraft, aiming to enhance the Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier capabilities.”
The purchase of three new Scorpene submarines is also in the pipeline.
These deals are expected to be soon finalized.

Reciprocal Collaboration
The collaboration between France and India is multiple and reciprocal. For example, the Paris Region of France is calling for more investments from India.
Valérie Pécresse, President of the Paris Region, recently met Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and Tata Sons chief N Chandrasekaran in Mumbai and asked the Indian entrepreneurs to invest in her region. Pécresse told media: “We are on a charm offensive to win hearts and minds of Indian students, tourists, investors and film makers.”
Today Indians represent fraction of the 50 million tourists visiting Paris; for example, figures say that the number of Australians and Chinese visiting the French capital is far higher than Indians.

Local Collaboration
The collaboration is today getting delocalized. France recently set up an exclusive pavilion at the third edition of the Tamil Nadu Global Investors Meet (GIM), a two-day event from January 7, whose objective was to foster economic ties with India. The Consulate of France in Puducherry and Chennai coordinated the French participation; France was a country partner for the event. The French Pavilion showcased many Paris-based companies including Michelin, Precia Molen, Valeo, Cryolar and Numeric among others.
A communiqué explained: “France is a major source of foreign direct investment for India with more than 1,000 French establishments already present in the country. Tamil Nadu, boasting the second largest economy in India with a Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) exceeding USD 300 billion, stands out as India's most industrialised state, housing over 130 Fortune 500 companies.”

Student Exchange: the Future
Last July 14, during his visit as guest of honour of France during the National Day, Prime Minister Modi among other announcements, mentioned bilateral cooperation, research and higher education. He announced that Paris has accepted to welcome in France 20,000 Indian students by 2025 and 30,000 by 2030.
A roadmap said that the cooperation will be centered on ‘a union of forces’; it will make “sciences, technologic innovation and university cooperation [the] vectors for progress and independence for our two countries”.
A chapter of the roadmap is dedicated to ‘human partnerships’.
France and India are “determined to develop their university bonds and encourage exchanges between students”.
To give a concrete shape to the project, Mumbai University (MU) has decided to join hands with a French university for dual degree program. Students will have to spend six to nine months in France at the University of Troyes on fellowship training as per the dual degree program.
According to a MU communiqué: “The combined expertise from both institutions may lead to potentially groundbreaking research outcomes in nanoscience and nanotechnology. Students enrolling with the Department of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology at MU for postgraduation (PG) will now get dual degree — jointly awarded by the MU and the University of Technology of Troyes in France.”

The Ideal Partners?
During Macron’s 2018 visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of “Five S”, Samman (respect); Samvad (dialogue); Sahayog (cooperation), Shanti (peace), and Samriddhi (prosperity). Paris certainly still agrees with this.
Today, most commentators converge to say that France and India are the ideal partners; in US-based The National Interest, Don McLain Gill wrote: “Among Western countries, France has often been the first to illustrate a mature understanding of India’s position on varied issues ranging from nuclear tests to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.”
Shishir Gupta said in The Hindustan Times: “PM Modi and Macron share a very close chemistry. They often talk to each other about major positions. …When Macron comes to India, the centerpiece will be Atmanirbhar Bharat.”
Gupta mentions the joint research and development of small modular nuclear reactors: “These are nuclear reactors that produce less than 300 megawatts. These reactors are fundamental to nuclear energy. They are also fundamental to the green hydrogen project.”

Joint Development
After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity; this should translate into something not easy to do, even for European partners, i.e. joint developments in new fields of science or technology.
Already public sector giant Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has opened a new design and test facility at its Aero Engine Research and Development Centre (AERDC) in Bengaluru which will be used to test helicopter engines to be co-developed between the French firm Safran and HAL; the engine is to be fitted in the new 13-tonne Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH), which will replace the Russian Mi-17 helicopters.
In February 2023 HAL and Safran had announced a tie-up to produce the engine for the 13-ton helicopter; HAL will participate in the design, development and production of the core engine components. Safran already has a joint venture with HAL to manufacture engines for the advanced light helicopter (ALH), weighing 5.5 tonnes.
Apart from the dream to develop together an engine for the Indian jets, high-tech drones could be another field of future collaboration. Recently, the Indian Navy received its first indigenous medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) built by Adani Defence and Aerospace at its Hyderabad facility (with Israeli transfer of technology).
Why can’t Paris and Delhi decide to develop the drones of tomorrow? Not an easy proposal, but perhaps worth trying.

Rafale row: How India's pain is now China and Pakistan's gain?

My article Rafale row: How India's pain is now China and Pakistan's gain? appeared in Mail Today/DailyO

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Amid political blame game, the IAF suffers and will continue to suffer.

A lot of ink has recently flowed over the Rafale (‘gust of wind’ in French) planes, but to understand the issue, it is necessary to go back a few years.
In February 2013, during the biannual Aeroshow at Yelahanka in Bangalore, the main topic was the supply of 126 Rafale fighter planes by Dassault Aviations to the Indian Air Force.
A few weeks earlier, news had circulated that the French company was keen to have a deal with Reliance Industries to help build 108 Rafales in India; Dassault and Reliance Industries had apparently already signed a partnership for the purpose.

Private player
During a press conference, AK Antony, the then defence minister, was categorical; he did not want to hear about a private player in the deal.
Observers felt that Antony continued to live in the Soviet era where the defence industry must be owned by the state.
If Boeing, Dassault, Safran, Lockheed-Martin or Rafael of Israel are able to serve their respective countries well, why can’t the Tatas or Reliances and others do so in India?

Two points need to be noted.
First, the association between Reliance and Dassault predates the arrival of Modi at the Centre (though at that time, the collaboration was with Mukesh Ambani, and not Anil as today) and second, why did Dassault select Reliance?
Simply because the French companies (with Thales for the avionics and Safran providing the engine) needed a strong Indian industrial group which could facilitate the transfer of technology and help manufacture the fighter planes in India; none of the industrial players had ‘experience’, mainly due to the ‘socialist’ policies of the government.

The situation is different today.
In the new deal, there is no transfer of technology, though there is an offset component. Some 50 per cent of the entire contract needs to be reinvested in India; it explains why an Indian partner is required for Dassault.
In 2015, the negotiations between Dassault and HAL had reached an impasse when PM Narendra Modi unlocked the situation; on April 9, he looked into the possibility to purchase 36 planes ‘off-the-shelf ’.
It was a pragmatic move. While dropping the former framework, India considered primarily the national interests and the IAF’s ‘critical operational necessity’.
Eighteen months later, after tough negotiations, the deal was finally signed to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets.
The details, obviously secret, were contained in several thousand pages of the inter-governmental agreement. It would give a breathing space to the IAF (which has been systematically and sadly forgotten in the present debate).
The saga started in 2001 and could have lasted decades more if Antony’s MMRAC (medium multi-role combat aircraft) formula had been stuck to. Air Marshal BK Pandey, one of India’s best experts, explained: “Dassault lacked confidence in the capability of Hindustan Aeronautical Ltd (HAL) with respect to Quality Standards, Time Lines and Cost, the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer, i.e. Dassault) was not prepared to partner with HAL and risk their reputation.”

Serious question
The Congress tweeting “chor, chor” every day, without any understanding of the situation and without proof to corroborate the accusations, raises a serious question: can an issue of supreme national importance be discussed on the public stage via Twitter?
The normal course would be to let the CAG find out if there is indeed a scam. Why can’t the CAG be trusted to meticulously go through the details of the inter-governmental deal?
But with the elections approaching, ‘national interests’ are shelved. In any case, politicians do not care much for such niceties; they want quick political gains. Unfortunately, the present ‘debate’ may jeopardise future defence procurements.
In April, the defence ministry issued a Request for Information (RFI) for the purchase of 114 new jets. Under the proposed scheme, 18 jets will come in ‘a flyaway condition’ (like the 36 Rafales); the rest will be produced in India under the new ‘strategic partnership’ policy, i.e., a joint venture between the selected foreign aviation major and its Indian partners. It is feared that the present noise around the 36 planes from France could be a precedent to question each and every defence acquisition.

India’s interest
Air Marshal Pandey feels that there is an apprehension “that the fresh move termed as MMRCA 2.0 could meet with the same fate (as the present deal). This will be a big disaster for the IAF which will be left with no choice but to depend largely on the LCA Tejas and the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, a hypothetic HAL project) if it does become a reality.”
To make things murkier, former French President François Hollande claimed that the Modi government suggested industrialist Anil Ambani’s company as an offset partner.
It was apparently later denied by Hollande, with AFP reporting that during a visit in Canada, Hollande declared that he was unaware and “only Dassault can comment on this”.
In the meantime, the harm was done, though the Indian and French governments, as well as Dassault, categorically denied any truth in Hollande’s first statement. The French press reported that it was linked to funds received from the Ambanis by Hollande’s girlfriend. Though in France nobody takes Hollande very seriously, even as President, he had the lowest approval rate that a French leader has ever had, the Indian politicians jumped on the occasion.
Ultimately, it is India’s defence preparedness and the IAF, which suffers and will continue to suffer. But the problem is that many politicians seem not to care much for India’s interests. And who is laughing today? China and Pakistan.

Are the Rafales, Mirages?

Air Chiefs Raha and Mercier in front a Rafale

The first dog fight on the French multi-purpose combat aircraft is on in full swing. It is not a battle in the air, but through communiqués, articles by ‘experts’, information and disinformation, and more importantly, tough negotiations which have been facing complex technical hurdles.
Negotiators need to find solutions for something which has never been attempted before in India, at that level of technology.
It is also true that India has the reputation to be a country which lives in ‘eternity’; it has serious drawbacks when it comes to defence procurement.
Take Egypt. Field Marshal Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi, the Egyptian President wanted a few Rafales to show off at the forthcoming inauguration of the Suez Canal: the ‘negotiations’ with Dassault Aviation were completed in just 3 months. He bought 24 Rafales from Dassault Aviation; it included 5 to be delivered in time for the function in August. Egypt agreed to shell out the price paid by the French Air Force for its fighters, explained Eric Trappier, the CEO of Dassault. A similar ‘quick’ procedure may happen in the coming weeks with Malaysia and Qatar.
In India however, everything is different. First the political set-up is not the same, one person can’t take the decision on his own (Sissi personally negotiated the deal with the French Defense Minister), but also from the start, Delhi wanted to ‘Make in India’, through a large transfer of technology.
Indeed, everything always takes more time in India. In this case, the process started 14 years ago. The initial Request for Information dates from 2001, while the Request for Proposal (RFP) was only issued in 2007 and as the then minister, AK Antony wanted to add new clauses in the Indian defence procurement policy, such as the Total Life-cycle Costs, the process got further delayed. ‘Complications’ then started.
In January 2012, the French firm Dassault Aviation was selected for supplying 126 Rafales Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) to the Indian Air Force (IAF). The Rafale fighter (in French, ‘rafale' means a 'gust of wind') had gone through a long competitive process which lasted five years, with the American F/A-18 and F-16, Russian MiG 35, European Eurofighter and Swedish Saab Gripen in the race.
Out of the 126 aircrafts to be supplied to the IAF, 18 planes are to be manufactured by the French supplier, Dassault Aviation, from its facilities near Bordeaux in France, while the remaining 108 planes have to be built in India, under a Transfer of Technology agreement, by Hindustan Aeronitical Ltd. (HAL). It is here that serious differences between Dassault and Delhi have appeared.

The complexity of the deal

Exercises over Jodhur

The complexity of the ‘mother of all deals’ partially explains the delay.
Trappier recently explained that once the contract is signed, France would continue for some time to build the subsystems, which will be shipped to India for assembly in Bangalore: “Over time the manufacture, including the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, will be phased over to Indian partners. The timetable is part of the negotiations,” he said.
“Dassault is patient and tenacious in its pursuit of the Indian deal for 126 fighters,” Trappier admitted. It is normal as the deal is important to France …but to India too.
A lot has been written in India about ‘liabilities’ to be incurred during the process of manufacturing 108 aircrafts in India. Should it be entirely the French supplier's responsibility? Indian Defence Minister Parrikar made it clear that he wanted the same quality for the 108 ‘Indian’ ones, as for the 18 French.
On February 9, Laurent Collet-Billon, the boss of the Armament Procurement Agency (Direction générale de l’armement or DGA) of the French Ministry of Defence for the first time gave a hint of a possible compromise: “Dassault will not be responsible for the whole contract. It is a co-management setup.”
Collet-Billion also admitted: “A lot of progress has been made since 2012.”
This was before the deal with Egypt for 24 Rafales.
By the way, the contract with Egypt is interesting in the sense that one of the main arguments of the anti-Rafale lobby has been that Dassault has not exported any plane so far. Now, this argument is not valid anymore.
At the end of February, a few days after the Aero Show 2015 was held in Bangalore, in which 3 Rafales participated, the French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian met his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar “to salvage the multi-billion Rafale contract”, said the press.
An official not wanting to be identified told PTI: “This visit was a serious attempt to thrash out the issues that continue to dog the deal.”
Two months earlier the French Minister had already visited India and met Parrikar to put the negotiations on the ‘fast track’.
The main issue was the cost of manufacturing 108 planes in India, which is probably not easy to calculate, considering that many technologies will be new for HAL.

Dwindling number of squadrons
In a meantime in India, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence recently expressed grave concern “over the dwindling number of fighter squadrons in the Indian Air Force. The squadron strength has come down to 25 from the sanctioned 42.” The Committee’s report which was tabled in the Parliament, stated that the Indian Air Force (IAF) required at least 45 fighter squadrons to counter a ‘two-front collusive threat’, while the government has sanctioned 42 squadrons only: “The revelation is astonishing, and the committee feels that the paradox in the required and sanctioned strength needs to be rectified at the earliest,” commented the Committee.
The AIF should maintain 32 squadrons of 18 aircrafts each. The committee noted: “Moreover, 14 of these squadrons are equipped with MiG-21s and MiG-27s, which will retire between 2015 and 2024. Thus the strength will be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024. Our capability has already come down.”
The Committee added that though the IAF has inducted several ‘force multipliers’, such as airborne early warning systems (AWACS), mid-air re-fuellers and tactical airlift aircraft, the dwindling fighter strength operationally means that the supremacy that India has enjoyed over its neighbours is fast eroding. There is no doubt that India needs the MMRCA deal, (the Sukhoi SU-30 is not a multi-purpose aircraft, as Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha reminded the press during the Air Show in Bangalore).

The latest progress
On March 4, during a visit to Dassault’s factory near Bordeaux, Eric Trappier, who accompanied French President François Hollande declared that Dassault Aviation and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) will be the ‘joint prime contractors’ to manufacture 108 Rafale fighters in India. This helped clarified the issue of responsibility for the timely delivery and quality of the 108 aircraft manufactured in India.
During a press conference on March 11, Trappier further explained that it was a ‘new development’ (probably arrived at during Le Drian’s visit to Delhi at the end of February). He added: “This is the first time Dassault agrees to be a co-contractor …Dassault and HAL will both take responsibility for the part they will each build on the Rafale aircraft made in India." He asserted that this was ‘in line with the Indian government’s initial request for proposals’. He also confirmed that Dassault’s price offer remains the same. This is less clear: does Trappier speak for the 18 manufactured in Bordeaux or for the 108 in Bangalore?
The will to conclude the deal seems present on both sides. No doubt that compromises have to be found and as often in these type of deals, a political intervention at the highest level will be required (for example in the case of Egypt, when Hollande requested French banks to participate). One more occasion to fill up the remaining gap(s) will be the forthcoming visit of Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar to Paris; officially, he will be there to prepare Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in April, but there is no doubt that the Rafales will be on the table too; it is in the interest of both India and France to have the contract signed at the earliest.
An Indian website Defencenews.com summarized the issue: “By choosing Rafale, India also gains access to cutting-edge technology to advance its aerospace and defense industries. …The entire rationale behind the Rafale deal wasn't to get the least expensive fighter to meet India's needs, but the aircraft that would best satisfy the nation's long-range military needs as well as its industrial interests.”
Even if it is not said, it is also important for Delhi to diversify its procurement of fighter planes; India can’t afford today to put all its eggs in the Russian basket.
Perhaps as an appetizer, the IAF will get its first two upgraded Mirage-2000 with new avionics and weapons before the end of March.
An official told The Times of India: “The upgraded Mirages have been stripped down and virtually re-built with state-of-the-art avionics, radars, mission computers, glass cockpits, helmet-mounted displays, electronic warfare suites and long-range missiles.”
Let us hope that we will not have to wait too long for the main dish.

Research in China

My article Research in China has been published by Uday India.

It was recently reported that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was extremely unhappy about the state of affairs at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
According to The Times of India, when he visited the DRDO headquarters on August 20, Modi “has asked the tardy organisation to shape-up in the face of competition from the private sector”.
Modi asked the defence minister to conduct a detailed review of the DRDO, and eventually come out with a white paper.
Modi also asked the officers to give up their ‘chalta hai’ (lackadaisical) attitude.
It appears that 15 top DRDO scientists, including Director General Avinash Chander are on extension; Chander holds three posts — Secretary (Defence) R&D, DG (DRDO) and Scientific Advisor to the defence minister.
A senior defence ministry official told The Times of India: "The PM was not happy about [this]. As per a department of personnel and training (DoPT) ruling, only the best scientists of international stature should be considered for extensions. He asked for all the details. He was told about the high attrition rate among the younger scientists."
The daily remarked: “DRDO spokesperson Ravi Gupta could not be contacted for a comment”; ‘Missing in Action’ in Army terms.
In the meantime, China takes giant strides to catch up with the US in the field of military innovations.
Xinhua reported that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would soon take delivery of a new generation’s aerial drone.
CCTV showed a test flight of the Rainbow 4 (CH-4), a hunter-killer drone, which successfully hit a target with a missile. The new CH-4 has been developed for reconnaissance and military strikes by the China Aerospace Science and Technology.
Li Pingkun, the head of the CH-4 project, told CCTV that the new drone could fly long-distance and hit a target with a error margin of less than 1.5 metres. Li explained that the precision was due to several new original ways to guide the missiles (or smart bombs) to their target.
The South China Morning Post, quoting some reports in the mainland, said: “The Rainbow 4 was developed as the PLA's answer to the MQ-9 Reaper, a hunter-killer drone mainly used by the US military for reconnaissance and high-precision air strikes”.
The nine metres long CH-4 has an 18-metre wingspan. With its 40-hour autonomy, it can carry four missiles, while its ground control centre can be fitted on two trucks.
Can the CH-4 catch up with the US Reaper in terms of targeting precision, flight length and payloads? Certainly not as yet, though intense efforts are being put in the project by Chinese scientists.
If today the Reaper can fly at 740km/h, the Chinese drone’s maximum speed is 235km/h, but the Chinese project is progressing fast.
But that is not all.
Have you heard of 'supercavitation' technology?
During the cold war, Soviet scientists had developed a technology called ‘supercavitation’, by which a submerged vessel would proceed inside an air bubble to avoid water drag.
Theoretically, a supercavitating vessel could reach the speed of sound, and this underwater; it would reduce the time for a transatlantic underwater cruise to less than an hour and for a transpacific journey to about 100 minutes.
Today, it may be science-fiction, but the Chinese scientists are working hard to solve the many technical hurdles.
The South China Morning Post explains: “China has moved a step closer to creating a supersonic submarine that could travel from Shanghai to San Francisco in less than two hours.”
It is hard to believe, but a team of scientists at Harbin Institute of Technology's Complex Flow and Heat Transfer Lab has made some breakthrough which should help a submarine, or a torpedo, to travel at extremely high speeds underwater.
Li Fengchen, professor of fluid machinery and engineering, announced that the new technology “could create the complicated air ‘bubble’ required for rapid underwater travel.”
Well, it is not done, but China is working on it.
Li affirmed that his team has found innovative means of addressing some of the unresolved problems: “Our method is different from any other approach, such as vector propulsion, or thrust created by an engine. By combining liquid-membrane technology with supercavitation, we can significantly reduce the launch challenges and make cruising control easier.”
In future the supercavitation technology will not be limited to military use only; it could also be utilized for civilian projects.
Professor Wang Guoyu, of the Fluid Mechanics Laboratory at Beijing Institute of Technology admits huge scientific and engineering challenges: “The size of the bubble is difficult to control, and the vessel is almost impossible to steer. While cruising at high speed during supercavitation, a fin could be snapped off if it touched the water because of the liquid's far greater density.”
There is more. The Chinese press recently conducted the second flight test of a new, ultra-high-speed missile. Analysts believe that it is part of a global system of attack weapons capable of striking the United States with nuclear warheads.
The flight of the new hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) or Wu-14 took place August 7 at a missile facility in western China.
The Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Jeffrey Pool stated: “We routinely monitor foreign defense activities, however we don’t comment on our intelligence or assessments of foreign weapons systems.”
He however confirmed a first test of the Wu-14 in January, though declined to provide a similar confirmation on the second test.
According to The South China Morning Post: “The first flight test of the Wu-14 took place January 9 and flew at speeds of around Mach 10, or 10 times the speed of sound—around 7,680 miles per hour. Hypersonic speeds pose severe guidance and control challenges for weapons engineers and produce extreme stress to metal and components.”
The US intelligence circles see this as an emerging hypersonic arms race.
The Chinese press did not mention the August 7 test, but reports about the presumed Wu-14 launch appeared on Internet which mentioned a missile launched from the Jiuquan satellite launch facility located in the Gobi Desert. Further, reports and photos posted online indicated that the booster rocket used in the test crash landed in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The booster crash is consistent with a hypersonic test.
Hypersonic glide vehicles travel in near space and thus the rocket that launched it may not have left the atmosphere.
The Pentagon has tested several hypersonic weapons platforms such as the X-37B Space Plane, the Lockheed Hypersonic Technology Vehicle-2 or the Boeing’s hypersonic craft known as the X-51 WaveRider.
What worries the US defence establishment are the sharp Pentagon budget cuts which may strike the funding for U.S. hypersonic craft.
In the meantime, President Xi Jinping (who is also Chairman of the Central Military Commission) spoke a ‘new military revolution’: "The new military revolution has provided China with opportunities and challenges at the same time and we must have foresight to adapt to changes in warfare.”
He was addressing his 24 colleagues of the Political Bureau
Xi asked Communist Party members to devote more attention to military issues, national defense and military development and military preparedness, and to support national defense and military reforms. The message is clear. Further, according to Xinhua, Xi said: “The changes will include developing new military strategies, technologies, doctrines, combat forces and management models with military informatization being central to modern combat.
Xi also mentioned four principles of comprehensive planning for military ‘renovation’. The Party should formulate an overall strategy to enhance its military strength:

• by developing a new mindset for the different military departments
• by uniting under a coherent strategy,
• by adopting a coordinated approach to innovation, and
• by fostering independent innovation.

The CMC Chairman added: “The new military revolution is developing at a pace so fast and with its impact so broad and profound that has rarely been seen since the end of WWII. The Chinese military must make great leaps in development and innovation so as to close the gap with its better-developed peers in the world.
He further urged the integration of military and civilian innovation “so that the two can accommodate each other and develop together”.
It is time for DRDO (and HAL) to wake up from their slumber. The world is moving; China is progressing fast, India will be left behind.
A solution might be to split DRDO into several autonomous projects with orders to deliver the goods.

Pray that we have the sense to read China

Shenyang J-11 over Tibet

My article Pray that we have the sense to read China appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer today.
Here is the link...

The Pioneer
June 20, 2013
in Edit Page
Perhaps Saint Antony can deliver us from the dilemma: How do we tackle an increasingly belligerent Beijing without ruffling its oh-so-sensitive feathers? As we debate, our neighbour adds more strength to its air power

In Europe, there is a belief that if you have lost something, whether it is a material object or a dear one who can’t be traced, or even if you face too many hurdles in a particular project, the best way to solve your predicament is to pray to Saint Antony, who is venerated for his many miracles and his capacity to redeem any lost situation.
India seems to have lost its capacity to stand up to China; most defence deals are missing (not even in action) in the dust of babudom; further, the country has misplaced its capacity to innovate. Can Saint Antony intervene?
Why should there be such an urgency to pray to the saint of Padova?
While India is struggling to modernise its armed forces, China has never been so innovative (helped by ‘borrowing’ from others, in President Barack Obama’s opinion); the Middle Kingdom is fast-moving in all domains, but particularly in ‘defence preparedness’, forcefully advocated by President Xi Jinping. And when Beijing can’t innovate, it acquires.
On June 6, the Chinese edition of The Global Times reported that a Chinese delegation was in Moscow to discuss with Russian arms export officials the purchase of the latest Sukhoi SU-35 fighter jet. A day earlier, the Russians had given the Chinese delegation, a grand demonstration of the multipurpose jet’s capacities. The Global Times said: “The primary mission of the visit was to determine and assess the technical capabilities of the new multifunctional fighter jet.” While both sides refused to reveal the number of jets in the deal, a Russian official hinted that it would be a “very sizable” number. Interestingly, Russian Government officials have also confirmed that this would be a ‘supply contract’ and no manufacturing license would be given to China. The Russian media said that the political decision had already been made, the two parties were just negotiating the payment schedules which should not be too much of a problem.

As the pressure on India keeps increasing, news agencies announced that France will start delivering its first Rafales to India by 2016. If true, this is good news for New Delhi and Paris. The financial daily, Les Echos, quoted French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as saying that Dassault will stop production of Rafale for 18 months — from 2013 for an export contract (Read: For the IAF).
Let me explain. France has a Defence Planning Law called ‘Loi de Programmation Militaire’. it is a five-year plan which takes care of the country’s military requirements. The French Budget said that in 2016, the Directorate General of Armament and the Ministry of Defence have planned to acquire only four Rafales (leaving 11 for India). Dassault Aviations, the manufacturer of the Rafale, has an order with the French Air Force for 180 Rafales, out of which 119 have already been delivered. The factory produces some 11 planes in a year, though there is an agreement that if Dassault gets an export order, the delivery of Rafales to the French Air Force may be stopped to enable the delivery chain to work for the export.
If one considers that it takes three-and-half years to produce a Rafale, and the delivery of the first of the 18 planes to be built in France is scheduled for 2016, one can deduct that the production of the ‘Indian’ Rafales will have to start latest by the end of this year. Can Mr Le Drian manage a miracle à la Saint Antony and accelerate the negotiation process between the Ministry of Defence and Dassault Aviation when he visits India in July? It is a one-billion Euro question!
Under the proposed deal, Dassault is to supply 18 Rafales in ‘fly-away’ (off-the-shelves) condition; then the Government of India undertaking Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will manufacture the remaining 108 planes in Bangalore (or elsewhere in India). But from the start, Dassault had some doubt about the ‘indigenous’ capacities of HAL. Hence, separate contracts for the 18 and the 108 have apparently been proposed by Dassault. This may not be acceptable to the Indian Government which is aware that a ‘middle path’ solution needs to be found. During a Press conference at the Aero Show 2013 in February in Bangalore, Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne spoke of a possibility: HAL would outsource parts of the ‘assembly’ of the plane to Indian private companies, but would keep the overall monitoring of the project. But is this agreeable to South Block babus?
Last week, Mr Eric Trappier the chairman of Dassault, said in an interview: “We are actively working on the Indian contract...  But it does not mean just selling planes; we have also to conclude an agreement for license production... The discussions are about ‘who does what’, ‘who is responsible for what’.”
It is not that the Russian contract for the SU-35 to China is without hurdles. Russia wants to protect its intellectual property rights over the 117S engine of its fighter jet, especially after Beijing is suspected to have borrowed engine technology from the Su-27SK to produce its J-11 jet. This time, China appears to have made concessions and dropped the technology transfer, while Russia may agree to sell China 24 Su-35s, rather than 48, the threshold for an ‘economical’ transfer. The Russian Federation will probably demand further guarantees from China; a Russian Ministry of Defense official told Kommersant, a business publication: “Moscow is not only aiming to ensure its presence on the Chinese market but also attempting to prevent the potential copycat production of Russian aircraft for subsequent sales to third parties with predatory pricing.” Even China’s friends do not always trust the PLA! But for Moscow as well as Beijing, the Su-35 contract demonstrates the new strategic co-operation reaffirmed during President Xi’s visit to Russia in March. The new Chinese Defence Minister told his Russian counterpart that bilateral defence co-operation was a key part of Sino-Russian relations.
What should truly worry New Delhi and add to the urgency of signing the Rafale deal are the repeated Chinese air exercises on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Last year, news agencies reported that China tested its multi-role J-10 fighter jets for the first time at high altitude. According to Chinese media, in March 2012, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force conducted a first of its kind ground attack training on the Tibetan plateau. The PLA Daily published some photos showing the ground crew of J-10 regiment fuelling the fighters and loading ammunition at an altitude of 3,500-meter-high with temperatures below -20 C. The Chinese jets could attack targets with conventional as well as laser-guided bombs, it says.
In two or three years’ time, Sukhoi 35, far superior to the J-10, will probably be seen in the Himalayan sky. Will India then be able to match China with a few Rafales? If it is New Delhi’s desire, it should move now. The French prayers to Saint Antony may not be enough to seal the Rafale deal; Indian gods will probably have to be called in for the finalisation of the contract.