How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape

My article How India and France are shaping a dynamic partnership in the changing global landscape appeared in Firstpost

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After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity

Nobody, not even the best soothsayers or experts, can explain why the world is suddenly changing so quickly, but remember the prophesy once sung by Bob Dylan, it seems to become true, “For the times, they are a-changin'”.
A sign of the changing time, France has a new prime minister, 34 years of age of a different sexual orientation as the head of the government.
Who could have imagined this a few years ago?
Of course, in India is difficult to understand that such a young ‘inexperienced’ leader, could lead a country with multiple problems, but how old were Adi Shankara or Swami Vivekananda when they changed India in so much depth.
One can’t compare the new French leader to the two above mentioned spiritual giants, but one can hope that fresh blood will be good for France in these ‘changing’ times.

Macron back in India
In the meantime, the French President Emmanuel Macron will be Chief Guest for Republic Day.
I still remember his last State visit in March 2018; addressing a French gathering in Delhi, the President spoke of the Chinese hegemony in the region and said that France was ready to work with India on the oceans: “France is a power of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans; we are present at the Reunion, we are also there in French Polynesia and New Caledonia. And we are a maritime power, it is often forgotten but France is the second maritime power in the world. We have a strong navy, we have nuclear submarines equipped like few other powers in the world; a maritime surveillance capability through our own satellites and technologies; it is obvious we are a military and intelligence power ranking us among the first nations in the world.”
This language was surprising at that time, but one can measure how much the world has changed and particularly the great powers’ views on the Middle Kingdom in the post-Covid era (and post-Eastern Ladakh confrontation for India).
Many more countries have today realized that China can’t be left free to engulf the oceans around.

Twenty Five Years of Strategic Partnership
The 90’s saw a a tremendous boost in bilateral relations with the visits of President Chirac in January 1998 and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s trip to Paris later in the year (incidentally, the new French prime minister is Mr. Attal, with two ‘t’, though the French will not pronounce differently)..
The most striking feature of 1998’s visit was the setting up of a framework for a strategic partnership.
Using a de Gaulle-like language, Jacques Chirac saluted India, “a nation which has affirmed its personality on the world stage”. He said that he had come to show that “France wanted to accompany India in its potent march [towards the future].”
Chirac’s words were not mere political niceties.
When India conducted its nuclear tests in Pokhran in May, France was one of the few countries which did not condemn Delhi (or impose sanctions). This was greatly appreciated in Delhi and when Prime Minister Vajpayee returned Chirac’s visit in October, the new strategic dialogue could take its first concrete steps.
These events set in motion a closer collaboration.

The Deals
The French government has recently submitted a response to India's Rs 50,000 crore tender to purchase 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets for the Indian Navy; according to India Today: “India has initiated the USD 6 billion deal with France for the acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine aircraft, aiming to enhance the Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier capabilities.”
The purchase of three new Scorpene submarines is also in the pipeline.
These deals are expected to be soon finalized.

Reciprocal Collaboration
The collaboration between France and India is multiple and reciprocal. For example, the Paris Region of France is calling for more investments from India.
Valérie Pécresse, President of the Paris Region, recently met Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and Tata Sons chief N Chandrasekaran in Mumbai and asked the Indian entrepreneurs to invest in her region. Pécresse told media: “We are on a charm offensive to win hearts and minds of Indian students, tourists, investors and film makers.”
Today Indians represent fraction of the 50 million tourists visiting Paris; for example, figures say that the number of Australians and Chinese visiting the French capital is far higher than Indians.

Local Collaboration
The collaboration is today getting delocalized. France recently set up an exclusive pavilion at the third edition of the Tamil Nadu Global Investors Meet (GIM), a two-day event from January 7, whose objective was to foster economic ties with India. The Consulate of France in Puducherry and Chennai coordinated the French participation; France was a country partner for the event. The French Pavilion showcased many Paris-based companies including Michelin, Precia Molen, Valeo, Cryolar and Numeric among others.
A communiqué explained: “France is a major source of foreign direct investment for India with more than 1,000 French establishments already present in the country. Tamil Nadu, boasting the second largest economy in India with a Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) exceeding USD 300 billion, stands out as India's most industrialised state, housing over 130 Fortune 500 companies.”

Student Exchange: the Future
Last July 14, during his visit as guest of honour of France during the National Day, Prime Minister Modi among other announcements, mentioned bilateral cooperation, research and higher education. He announced that Paris has accepted to welcome in France 20,000 Indian students by 2025 and 30,000 by 2030.
A roadmap said that the cooperation will be centered on ‘a union of forces’; it will make “sciences, technologic innovation and university cooperation [the] vectors for progress and independence for our two countries”.
A chapter of the roadmap is dedicated to ‘human partnerships’.
France and India are “determined to develop their university bonds and encourage exchanges between students”.
To give a concrete shape to the project, Mumbai University (MU) has decided to join hands with a French university for dual degree program. Students will have to spend six to nine months in France at the University of Troyes on fellowship training as per the dual degree program.
According to a MU communiqué: “The combined expertise from both institutions may lead to potentially groundbreaking research outcomes in nanoscience and nanotechnology. Students enrolling with the Department of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology at MU for postgraduation (PG) will now get dual degree — jointly awarded by the MU and the University of Technology of Troyes in France.”

The Ideal Partners?
During Macron’s 2018 visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of “Five S”, Samman (respect); Samvad (dialogue); Sahayog (cooperation), Shanti (peace), and Samriddhi (prosperity). Paris certainly still agrees with this.
Today, most commentators converge to say that France and India are the ideal partners; in US-based The National Interest, Don McLain Gill wrote: “Among Western countries, France has often been the first to illustrate a mature understanding of India’s position on varied issues ranging from nuclear tests to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.”
Shishir Gupta said in The Hindustan Times: “PM Modi and Macron share a very close chemistry. They often talk to each other about major positions. …When Macron comes to India, the centerpiece will be Atmanirbhar Bharat.”
Gupta mentions the joint research and development of small modular nuclear reactors: “These are nuclear reactors that produce less than 300 megawatts. These reactors are fundamental to nuclear energy. They are also fundamental to the green hydrogen project.”

Joint Development
After 25 years of ‘partnership’ India and France have reached an unparalleled level of trust and proximity; this should translate into something not easy to do, even for European partners, i.e. joint developments in new fields of science or technology.
Already public sector giant Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has opened a new design and test facility at its Aero Engine Research and Development Centre (AERDC) in Bengaluru which will be used to test helicopter engines to be co-developed between the French firm Safran and HAL; the engine is to be fitted in the new 13-tonne Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH), which will replace the Russian Mi-17 helicopters.
In February 2023 HAL and Safran had announced a tie-up to produce the engine for the 13-ton helicopter; HAL will participate in the design, development and production of the core engine components. Safran already has a joint venture with HAL to manufacture engines for the advanced light helicopter (ALH), weighing 5.5 tonnes.
Apart from the dream to develop together an engine for the Indian jets, high-tech drones could be another field of future collaboration. Recently, the Indian Navy received its first indigenous medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) built by Adani Defence and Aerospace at its Hyderabad facility (with Israeli transfer of technology).
Why can’t Paris and Delhi decide to develop the drones of tomorrow? Not an easy proposal, but perhaps worth trying.

PM Modi in Paris: How Indo-French ties have evolved into an epitome of strategic, economic and cultural cooperation

My article  PM Modi in Paris: How Indo-French ties have evolved into an epitome of strategic, economic and cultural cooperation appeared in Firstpost

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In the present turbulent times, the stability of the relation between Delhi and Paris is important for the world

This year, France and India are celebrating 25 years of their strategic partnership. The visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the chief guest for the parade on the French National Day (Bastille Day) in Paris will be the culmination of this momentous year. It will also witness a host of new agreements between the two nations.
One could believe that Narendra Modi’s decision to purchase 36 Rafale planes ‘off-the-shelf’, during his April visit to Paris in April 2015, was the true beginning of the partnership; it is true that it was a quick, pragmatic and smart move. Delhi brought the IAF’s ‘critical operational necessity’ to the negotiating table while dropping the cumbersome Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft framework. But it was far from being the first bilateral deal in terms of defence.
A letter sent by HS Malik, India’s Ambassador to France to prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru in October 1953 testifies that 70 years ago, France and India were already special friends.
At that time, India purchased 71 Ouragans (known in India as ‘Toofanis’) from the French firm, Dassault.
Though at that time the question of the French settlements in India was not solved; (the de facto transfer of Pondicherry and the three other settlements Yanon, Mahe and Karikal took only place a year later on 1 November, 1954), some trust was obviously already present.
Addressing Nehru, the Indian ambassador wrote: “All of us in the Embassy who have been working on the implantation of the contract with the Defence Ministry for the supply of Ouragan aircraft were greatly relieved and delighted when we got the news that our four pilots with the four Ouragans had reached Palam safely. This flight from France to India has involved a great deal of organizational work for which much credit is due to the team of the Indian Air Force Officers.”
Malik continued: “I venture to bring to your notice the wonderful cooperation that we have received both from the French officers of the Ministry of Defence, from the Cabinet Minister downwards, and from the French industry. We signed the contract only last June. Already four planes have reached India; another 35 are being sent on October the 30th on the aircraft carrier Dixmude, and the remainder, 32 aircraft, will be dispatched in January 1954. I think you will agree that this is indeed prompt execution of the agreement as embodied in the contract between us and the French.”
Malik added: “Our pilots who came here to learn to fly this type of aircraft, which was new to them, won the admiration and respect of the French Air Force and, generally speaking, …in spite of the language handicap, [the pilots] have made friends and won the respect of the people among whom they have lived.” These words speak for themselves.

Old and stable relations
The selection of the Toofanis or the Rafales was a hallmark of the partnership between Delhi and Paris.
Historians usually consider the period between 1947 and 1962 as the first phase of Indo-French relations. Year 1962 was for France the year it constitutionally departed from the subcontinent and for India.
As early as January 1947, though the relations were not too cordial between France and India due to the colonial burden, the French government asked for a 10-year extension of the 1945 agreement permitting military air ferries to fly across India. Nehru, the interim prime minister noted: “Public opinion in India is very much against the use of force by the French Government against the people of Indochina and anything which we do to facilitate the use of this force is bound to be resented and vigorously criticized”, but on 16 July, 1947 an agreement on air services between India and France was signed.
Soon after, an interesting development occurred. Nehru, then interested in the programme ‘Atoms for Peace’, was “anxious to help in every way in developing atomic energy in India”. He decided to unofficially send Homi J Bhabha to enquire about the possibility of collaboration for the peaceful use of atomic energy: “In view of the fact that India possesses very large resources of minerals suitable for the generation of atomic power, India is destined to play an important part in research on atomic energy in cooperation with other countries.”
Homi Bhabha had extremely cordial contacts with Frédéric Joliot-Curie and Raoul Dautry, the first heads of the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), founded by de Gaulle in 1945.
The French armament sales during this first phase were relatively large despite the factors mentioned above.
On 22 September, 1962, General de Gaulle received Nehru in Paris. Nehru first congratulated him for the settlement of the Algerian crisis as well as the ratification of the cession of the French Establishments in India. De Gaulle replied that he was happy to see that India had dealt successfully with some of the issues the West had doubts about at the time of independence.
Though the Indian Air Force did not directly take part in the conflict with China, Toofanis, as well as 110 Mystère and 12 Alizée (of Bréguet Aviation), were in service in 1962. Further, 150 AMX 13 light tanks were sold to India after an agreement was signed in 1957 (remember the battle of Chushul in November 1962).
With Dassault, the collaboration continued uninterrupted and in the 1980s India acquired the Mirage 2000.
If president François Mitterrand laid the foundation of a solid friendship with India, the regular dialogue was institutionalised during president Jacques Chirac’s visit in early 1998 through a ‘strategic’ partnership. This is still the base of the present trusted relationship. As for cultural relations, they will go on regardless of who is at the helm of India or France.

Modi in Paris
To be invited as the chief guest at the Bastille Day Parade is a rare honour. French Ambassador in India, Emmanuel Lenain told India Today that the visit would have “maximum impact and maximum outcomes”.
Lenain mentioned “the leaps in defence cooperation, which would be visible at the special military parade. We’re going to have Indian troops marching on the Champs-Elysées at the beginning of Bastille Day, and we have Indian Rafale participating in the fly past.” The ambassador added: “We provide the best technology to India as a close partner and ally. We also provide maximum content of ‘Make in India’, so we have made a good offer. The decision is now really in the hands of Indian authorities.”
The cherry on the cake could be the signature for Rafale-M; the Indian Navy is believed to have expressed a preference for the French fighter plane for its new aircraft carrier.
The Indian Navy is also interested in additional Scorpene-class submarines (six Kalvari submarines were built by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited with French transfer of technology), also in the pipeline, an Airbus deal to manufacture C-295 tactical transport aircraft in Gujarat.
But there is more, after the Indian prime minister managed to get Washington’s agreement for the transfer of jet engine technology; negotiations with Paris should materialise to co-develop a high-thrust engine for the country’s stealth fighter jet programme, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
According to India Today: “France’s Safran is believed to have agreed to completely share its jet engine technology with India to help develop the high-thrust 110kN engine. Safran has already co-developed a helicopter engine for India’s homegrown chopper fleet, and has been negotiating over the fighter jet engine for long.”
It is interesting to note that in recent years, France has emerged as a winner over Russia in defence purchases by India; with the Ukraine war, this trend can only increase.
In another interview with ANI, Lenain explained: “We work in the spirit of partnership, French companies have been the pioneers for years for make in India and now we totally understood the philosophy of Aatmanirbhar Bharat and they really want to share best technologies and to develop jointly in future.”
India and France will also be working on a roadmap for renewed cooperation for the next 25 years, which might be extremely challenging for the planet.
Indeed, India and France have gone a long way during the last 70 years (and especially after 1998). But it is important to remember that when India conducted its nuclear tests in Pokhran in May 1998, France was one of the few countries which did not condemn Delhi (or impose sanctions). This was greatly appreciated in Delhi and when in October 1998 prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee returned president Jacques Chirac’s visit to India, the new strategic dialogue could take its first concrete steps.
These events set in motion a closer collaboration and the indeed present partnership owes much to these two leaders.
From the ‘friendship’ mentioned by General de Gaulle in 1962, the relationship has become a true strategic, economic and cultural partnership.
In the present turbulent times, the stability of the relationship between Delhi and Paris is important for the world.

European naivety over?

My article European naivety over? appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.

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Even as Beijing managed to find a new ‘client’ in Italy, other European nations such as France and Germany are not convinced about its bonafide interest

On January 28, 1964, The New York Times reported: “General de Gaulle’s Government broke today with the United States (US) policy of isolating communist China and announced the establishment of diplomatic relations with Peking.” The US newspaper added: “France’s recognition of the communist regime was the first by any major power since the Korean War began nearly 14 years ago.” The US deeply regretted the French move at a time the Chinese communists were “promoting aggression and subversion.” So as French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron received the Chinese presidential couple  for an intimate dinner at Beaulieu-sur-Mer, a resort on the Riviera, the stakes have changed. China now has the upper hand.
In 1964, former French President Charles de Gaulle had affirmed: “La Chine est un grand pays” (China is a big country) but today it has become power No 2 on the planet after the US and Xi Jinping plans to dethrone America with his own dream. Fifty-five years later, the same New York Times reported the arrival of the Chinese President: “The Promenade des Anglais [in Nice] — the palm-lined beachside avenue that is the city’s premier attraction — was closed to traffic all weekend.” This never happened before.
In March last year, Xi made news when he was given a life-long term as President of China. The international Press then mainly noted the Emperor-for-life aspect, forgetting that Xi wanted to transform China into the No 1 world power. A year later, partly due to Twitter attacks from US President Donald Trump, Xi is not so self-assured and an economic crisis, looming large over China, has weakened the Middle Kingdom. Officially, its growth was only 6.5 per cent in 2018, the slowest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. Bloomberg noted: “Tariffs on Chinese exports to the US imposed by President Trump are starting to pinch the country’s factories.”
Xiang Songzuo, a professor at the Renmin University School of Finance, wrote that China’s GDP growth would only be 1.67 per cent and not 6.5 per cent in 2018. According to the website Chinascope, Xiang also warned that “nowadays, Chinese have become addicted to playing with debt and high leverage financing. This is actually a mirage and will collapse soon.”
L’Affaire Huawei has been a turning point for the Western views on the Middle Kingdom; the telecom equipment company has been at the centre of media attention for the wrong reasons; US officials charged the company with stealing technology from T-Mobile, one of its business partners and wanting to impose its own standards for the 5G, the latest generation of cellular mobile communications. This is the background of Xi’s visit to Italy, Monaco and France.
Chinese strategists were aware that Italy is the weakest link in the Europe Union (EU) and while more and more countries realise that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), so dear to Xi, is not offering free meals but often plunges the beneficiary nations into deep debts, Beijing managed to find a European “client.”
On March 23, Xinhua reported that Xi and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte jointly “elevated the China-Italy relations into a new era”. A Memorandum of Understanding to advance the construction of the Belt and Road was signed. In a diplomatic jargon, the Chinese news agency said that “the two countries have continuously deepened their communication and cooperation in various fields, which helped each other’s social and economic development.”
Xi urged the two sides to accelerate negotiations on a China-EU investment agreement, enhance synergy of the BRI and the EU’s development strategies. Conte answered the Chinese President: “Italy is glad to seize the historic opportunity in joining the Belt and Road construction.”
Other European countries were not amused, though Xi assured Italy that the BRI would be a two-way road for investment and trade. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Welt am Sonntag newspaper: “In a world with giants like China, Russia or our partners in the US, we can only survive if we are united as the EU …and if some countries believe that they can do clever business with the Chinese, then they will be surprised when they wake up and find themselves dependent.”
The EU’s German budget commissioner, Guenther Oettinger, told the Funke newspaper group that Europe should ensure it retains its autonomy and sovereignty when dealing with China.
French President Macron forcefully asserted that the time of European naivety over China was over: “For many years, we had an uncoordinated approach and China took advantage of our divisions,” he said. He called for stricter rules on Chinese investments in the EU; German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed similar views.
French Finance Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian remarked that “Silk Road cooperation must go in both directions”.
The French Press quoted  the Sri Lankan experience as “the dark side of the new Silk Road.” It mentioned the port of Hambantota and how in the mid-2000s Colombo agreed “to entrust Beijing with the construction of an ex-nihilo port in the town of Hambantota, in the south of the island. It is not yet a question of the Silk Road …but all the ingredients were there.”
Like for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Chinese funds, engineers and workers would build the infrastructure in partnership, supposedly becoming a ‘win-win’ venture. But Sri Lanka, like Malaysia and many other countries, has now discovered that it was in fact a lose-lose operation, with the new assets becoming Chinese as soon as the client state is unable to refund the ‘loans’.
Xi probably did not convince Macron, Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (the latter two joined Macron in Paris to meet the Chinese President) of Beijing’s bonafide, despite the Chinese President’s enigmatic words: “In politics, we should not only build a strong ‘dam’ of mutual trust, but also a ‘lighthouse’ of ideal.”
However, at the end of his visit, Xi left a small present for the European firm Airbus, a $35 billion jet deal, which included 290 A320-series narrow-body planes and 10 A350 wide-bodies. President Macron observed that Xi’s official visit was an “excellent signal” of the strength and reliability of relations between China and France. He added that the two countries are ready to build a “strong Euro-Chinese partnership, based on clear, strict and ambitious rules” …minus naivety.
Will it work?

Is France India’s naval ally in the Pacific?

My article Is France India’s naval ally in the Pacific? appeared last week in The Mail Today and DailyO


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A close Indo-French collaboration can only be a win-win proposition.

About a year ago, I attended a conference in Delhi; the topic was the Indo-Pacific, a fascinating topic, though at first I wondered, what is this “Indo-Pacific”? The dictionary tells us that the Indo-Pacific is “a biogeographic region of Earth’s seas...The term is especially useful in marine biology and ichthyology.” A conference on different species of fishes? No.

French power
On June 26, 2017, a joint statement issued by the US President and the Indian Prime Minister at the end of the latter’s visit to the US, enlarged the definition: “As responsible stewards in the Indo-Pacific region, President Trump and Prime Minister Modi agreed that a close partnership between the United States and India is central to peace and stability in the region.”
Amongst others, the objective of the Indo-US partnership was to increase free and fair trade and the strengthening of energy linkages: the new concept was clearly to counter the seemingly unstoppable Chinese advances in the South China Sea and elsewhere on the oceans.
At the time of the Conference, I wondered why France was not included as a participant: “nobody thought of it”, I was told. All this has changed after President Macron’s visit to India in March. Addressing a French gathering in Delhi, the dynamic President reminded his countrymen: “France is a power of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans; we are present at the Reunion, we are also there in French Polynesia and New Caledonia. And we are a maritime power, it is often forgotten but France is the second maritime power in the world. We have a strong navy, we have nuclear submarines equipped like few other powers in the world; a maritime surveillance capability through our own satellites and technologies; it is obvious we are a military and intelligence power ranking us among the first nations in the world.”
France was ready to work with India on the oceans. The same month, The Asia Times reported: “The French Jeanne d’Arc naval task force, integrated by British personnel and units, is heading for East Asia and the South Pacific. Paris and London say this five-month deployment is aimed at improving maritime cooperation between their navies. In reality, it can be read as a new initiative by the two European countries to support the United States in its freedom of navigation operations in the region against China’s military activism.”

Counter force
More recently, an article published in The South China Morning Post noted: “France is increasing its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, sending warships through the South China Sea and planning air exercises to help counter China’s military build-up in disputed waters.”
It is clear that France has definitively become a player to count on in the Indo-Pacific in the years to come.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, annually organised in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, an independent think-tank based in London, saw Prime Minister Modi giving the keynote address. It was also an occasion for France to express its interests. Florence Parly, the French Armed Forces Minister told the forum: “I am also delighted to be here, because this region, for us too, is home. It is good to remind that France has 9 million square kilometre of exclusive economic zone in the Indo-Pacific area; 1.5 million citizen in our five overseas territories, 200,000 expatriates, different sets of permanent military forces, and vital economic interests in the region.”
She announced that a French naval task group, together with British helicopters and ships, would soon be visiting Singapore “and then sail ‘into certain areas’ of the South China Sea.” But she made it clear that France was for ‘Raising the bar for regional cooperation’ (the theme of the Dialogue) but not raising’ regional competition.’

Global impact
A brochure published by the French ministry, made it clear that the respect of international maritime law was a serious issue for Paris: “In the South China Sea, the large-scale land reclamation activities and the militarisation of contested archipelagos have changed the status quo and increased tensions. The potential consequences of this crisis have a global impact considering that one third of the world trade transits through this strategic region.”
It observed that “France is rooted in the southern part of the Indian Ocean... and is also anchored in the Pacific Ocean... Our armed forces stationed overseas and our permanent military basing allow France to fulfil the security responsibilities of a resident power of the Indo-Pacific.”
Modi concluded his keynote address by mentioning “Five S”, Samman (respect); Samvad (dialogue); Sahayog (cooperation), Shanti (peace), and Samriddhi (prosperity). Paris can certainly agree with this. France will indeed be a major player in the region in the years to come; a close Indo-French collaboration can only be a win-win proposition. China has to realise that the Middle Kingdom can’t engulf the seas around it.

Macron in India: Ties that keep growing

My article Macron in India: Ties that keep growing appeared before the visit in The Asian Age and Deccan Chronicle.

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Indian and France are celebrating twenty years of partnership.
The accord signed in 1998 by President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister AB Vajpayee is one of the oldest, if not the oldest, ‘strategic partnership’.
It was inked during the French President’s visit to India: “Both countries share a perspective that the new world order has to be a genuine multi-polar world order. Our bilateral relationship is poised to grow in the coming months in a multi-faceted manner,” declared Chirac.
Over the last two decades, the partnership has steadily grown; no major political difference has darkened the sky between Paris and Delhi. France has constantly been supportive of India, particularly for a permanent seat for India in the UN Security Council and has shown comprehension for India’s nuclear policy. Though in recent years the term ‘strategic partnership’ has been devalued by the multiplication of such accords, in the Indo-French case, the 1998 momentum has been regularly sustained by new initiatives.
One is of course the Rs 59,000 crore deal for 36 Rafale fighters in September 2016; it will soon prove to be a game changer, partly due the offset clauses forcing the French to reinvest in India 50% of the total deal’s amount, but also for India’s western and northern fronts. China realizes this, its recent efforts to reinforce its air defence of the Western Theater Command, particularly on the Tibetan plateau, is definitily linked to the arrival of the Rafale in 2019.
As she arrived in India in October 2017, French defence minister Florence Parly stated in an interview to The Times of India that India was France’s‘major strategic partner in Asia’. She noted that the relationship was “the fruit of a long, shared history, grounded in an unshakable trust. We have always worked alongside India, in good times but also at difficult moments,” adding “our partnership is continuing to develop even more, including in very sensitive areas.”
These ‘sensitive’ areas make the difference.
Delhi knows that it needs to diversify its diplomatic relations if it wants to play a major role in the world. An example: for India’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific region, France could also be a crucial partner.
In an article for Carnagie India, C. Raja Mohan and Darshana Baruah wrote about Deepening the India-France Maritime Partnership: “Faced with growing geopolitical turbulence and more aggressive maritime maneuvering, India and France are eager to expand their strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific.”
The authors elaborated: “As maritime security acquires greater salience in India’s foreign policy, New Delhi is increasingly looking to leverage its strategic partnerships, particularly with Paris. Although India and France have joined forces on a number of issues since 1998, regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific has never risen to the top of the agenda. However, this may be about to change.”
The study cited a series of high-level discussions between New Delhi and Paris which focused on the prospects of a stronger maritime security partnership: “Central to the recent discussions has been the creation of a framework for strategic coordination in the Indo-Pacific. …As they explore their bilateral cooperation on regional security, the Indo-Pacific offers ample potential for such an enterprise.”
A highpoint of Macron’s visit could be a logistics accord allowing India access to the strategically important French base in the Reunion Islands near Madagascar. Another possibility is the opening of the French facilities in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa where India’s rival China has already a military base. This is part of India’s new maritime strategy.
Interestingly, another author, Emanuele Scimia wrote in The Asian Times about a new alliance emerging in the region. He cited the French Jeanne d’Arc’s naval task force, heading for East Asia and the South Pacific to practice with the British Royal Navy.
Though the objective of the five-month deployment is the improvement of the maritime cooperation between their navies, in reality, said Scimia, “it can be read as a new initiative by the two European countries to support the United States in its freedom of navigation operations in the region against China’s military activism.”
The task group consists of the Mistral-class helicopter assault ship Dixmude and the La Fayette-class frigate Surcouf.
Scimia further commented: “It is worth noting that the French-led task force will dock in countries at odds with China. Indeed Indonesia, Australia and Vietnam question Beijing’s claims to the South,” before concluding: “the prospective Quadrilateral (Quad) alliance among the United States, India, Japan and Australia to counter China’s military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific space could be extended to France and Britain.”
Does it mean a Quad + Two? India and France will probably prefer the bilateral way to start with.
Incidentally, in December 1954, a previous avatar of the Dixmude, arrived in Mumbai to deliver 20 aircrafts with ammunitions: “Dixmude will stop at Bombay only for 5 days. In view of large quantities on board and short time available for off loading French air Ministry has requested for facilities as special case to unload explosives at Jetty instead of at anchor outside harbor,” wrote the then Indian ambassador in Paris.
Four years later, 22 Mystere and 13 Ouragan (‘Toofanis’) would be again delivered by the same Dixmude.
Another important development: during the forthcoming presidential visit, a deal could also be signed between India and Safran (one of the partners of Dasault in the Rafale deal) to develop a M88 engine for the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas.
A report in The Tribune recently hinted that “the M88 engine would be used as the base engine to adapt it for the LCA program or it would be an altogether new development using Safran technology to create a new engine from the ground upwards.” The LCA Tejas, manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is presently equipped with a General Electric F404 IN20 engine. India is obviously keen to resurrect the Kaveri engine project which was originally started in the 1990s to develop an indigenous jet engine. Safran has now offered to collaborate on the Kaveri engine program as part of the 50% offsets for the Rafale deal.
Following Florence Parly’s visit, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian came to India in November; in Delhi he mentioned common bilateral interests such as “combating terrorism, maritime security, cooperation in the Indian Ocean – where France and India are two countries belonging to the Indian Ocean Rim – we have a complete commonality of views, which calls for the strengthening of our partnership.”
Macron’s visit was delayed for a few months due to the importance of an important joint initiative, the International Solar Alliance (ISA). Launched at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in November 2015, the ISA wants to create a coalition of solar resource rich countries and address each participant’s special energy needs.
Finally, twenty years after Chirac’s visit, it would make economic and strategic sense for India to partner with France in more futuristic research projects such as a fifth-generation combat plane or an armed drone.
Modi and Macron need to prepare the future.

Why French President Macron's India visit may make Justin Trudeau feel snubbed

My article Why French President Macron's India visit may make Justin Trudeau feel snubbed appeared in Mail Today and DailyO

Here is the link...

Over the last two decades, the partnership has grown steadily, with no major political differences darkening the sky between Paris and Delhi.

It is not easy to guess in advance how successful will be the visit of the head of a state in another country; there is, however, no doubt that the forthcoming visit of President Emmanuel Macron of France will be the opposite of Justin Trudeau’s, the Canadian prime minister, and this for many reasons.
First, the French President and his charismatic wife will certainly not waste their time parading around religious places or bringing along known separatists. But more importantly, the Indo-French relations are based on a twenty-year-old strategic partnership signed by the former French President Jacques Chirac and then Indian Prime Minister, Vajpayee; the latter then declared: “Both countries share a perspective that the new world order has to be a genuine multi-polar world order. Our bilateral relationship is poised to grow in the coming months in a multifaceted manner.”

No differences
Over the last two decades, the partnership has grown steadily, with no major political differences darkening the sky between Paris and Delhi. France has constantly been supportive of India, particularly for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council and has shown more comprehension than others in the nuclear domain. Though in recent years, the term "strategic partnership" has been devalued by the multiplication of such accords with all and sundry, in the Indo-French case, the 1998 momentum has been regularly sustained by new initiatives.
Then in September 2016, there was the Rs 59,000 crore deal for 36 Rafale fighters; though criticised by some political parties, it will soon prove to be a game changer, especially due the offset clauses. But there is more.
In October 2017, in an interview, the French defence minister Florence Parly stated that she had come to Delhi because India is "our major strategic partner in Asia". She noted that the relationship was “the fruit of a long, shared history, grounded in an unshakable trust,” adding “our partnership is continuing to develop even more, including in very sensitive areas.”
These "sensitive" areas make the difference. Macron’s visit was delayed for a few months due to the importance of an important joint initiative, the International Solar Alliance (ISA). Launched at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in November 2015, the ISA wants to create a coalition of solar resource-rich countries and address each participant’s special energy needs.
On January 25, 2016, the ISA’s interim Secretariat was inaugurated at the National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE) in Gurgaon by Modi and Hollande. A total of 56 countries have now signed the ISA Framework Agreement and 26 nations have ratified it. The ISA founding conference, co-hosted by India and France, will take place on March 11 at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
It was significant that the French defence minister travelled to Nagpur to launch a joint production facility between Dassault Aviation and Reliance to fulfill the Rafale deal’s offset obligation. Around Rs 20,000 crores need to be invested by the French. Madame Parly, along with Dassault Aviation chairman Eric Trappier and Reliance chairman Anil Ambani, laid the foundation stone of an aerospace park for the manufacture of aircraft components.

New offer
The Dassault–Reliance Joint Venture (JV) has already shortlisted a large number of vendors, mostly small and medium-sized enterprises, to be part of an indigenous supply chain for the Rafales; in other words, the "Make in India" programme.
During the forthcoming presidential visit, a deal should be signed between India and Safran (one of the partners of Dassault in the Rafale deal) to develop an M88 engine for the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas. A report in The Tribune recently hinted that “the M88 engine would be used as the base engine to adapt it for the LCA programme or it would be an altogether new development using Safran technology to create a new engine from the ground upwards.” Safran has now offered to collaborate on the Kaveri engine programme as part of the 50 per cent offsets for the Rafale deal.

Futuristic research
Florence Parly’s visit was followed by foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian’s trip. Again a launch pad in several fields; the minister mentioned common bilateral interests such as “combating terrorism, maritime security, cooperation in the Indian Ocean.”
Another highpoint of Macron’s visit could be a logistics accord allowing India access to the strategically important French base in the Reunion Islands near Madagascar. Another possibility is the opening of the French facilities in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa where India’s rival China has already a military base. This is part of India’s new maritime strategy.
It might also make economic and strategic sense for India to partner with France in more futuristic research projects like a fifth-generation combat plane or an armed drone.
It might not be for this visit.

Did the Young Horse tame the Dragon?

Chinese are known for their incapacity to pronounce foreign names; however Beijing tried to turn this to its advantage when the French President recently arrived on a State visit in China. In the Chinese press, Emmanuel Macron became ‘Ma Ke Long’ or the ‘Horse taming the Dragon’.
This was bound to immensely please the French President who started his three-day state visit in Xian in Shaanxi province.
Three main issues were on his agenda. First was the trade and economic cooperation with Beijing. France, like India, has a large trade deficit with China, which needed to be rebalanced.
Paris is keen to lower imports barriers for agricultural products, such as beef and wine; further it is keen on a better access to China’s markets and on fairer investment policies for the French companies operating in China.
Climate change was another issue to be discussed, though China has been a key supporter of the Paris Accord to tackle global warming. After President Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the pact, Paris and Beijing affirmed that they would form a ‘joint leadership’ to combat climate change.
Finally, Macron came to Beijing as the ‘ambassador’ of Europe. With Angela Merkel still struggling to form a government and thus temporarily out as a European spokesperson, Macron has become the main figurehead for the EU.
Before the visit, The South China Morning Post wrote: “France may step forward to take a much more prominent role. Macron will be hoping for a constructive and supportive relationship with China as France attempts to assert itself on the global stage.”
From the Chinese side, President Xi Jinping was keen to secure France’s (and Europe’s) participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
A day before the French President arrived, AFP analyzed: “France has so far been cautious about Beijing’s plans to revive trade along ancient land and sea routes but that could change as the French president seeks to rebalance a multibillion-euro trade deficit.”
Though the ambitious initiative is to connect Europe and Asia by road, rail and sea, European nations have not so far shown much excitement for the New Silk Road.
Business was however at the heart of the visit; Macron was accompanied by some 50 French CEOs keen to work with China.
According to the French Press, the French president indeed introduced himself as the Ambassador for Europe; Le Point commented: “This state visit began ‘symbolically’ in the north of the country in Xian, ancient capital of the Chinese empire that was the starting point of the Silk Road.”
Le Parisien reported the ‘lyrical’ speech delivered by Emmanuel Macron in which he addressed the Sino-French relations, the fight against global warming and multilateralism. The French leader asserted: “The world is a fragile silk fabric.”
He spoke about "a Franco-Chinese alliance for 'the future of the world' France is changing in depth and, with it, it is Europe that is back to build a balanced cooperation with China."
Beijing must have waited for his declarations on the BRI.
In Xian, addressing an audience of academics, students and businessmen at the Daming Palace, the royal residence of the Tang dynasty for more than 220 years, Macron affirmed that China and Europe should work together on the Initiative, but it could not be a ‘one-way’ project.
He elaborated: “After all, the ancient Silk Roads were never only Chinese,” adding: "By definition, these roads can only be shared. If they are roads, they cannot be one-way. They cannot be the roads of a new hegemony that will put the countries that they traverse in a vassal state. …Multilateralism means balanced cooperation,” Macron affirmed.
This may have not pleased his hosts.

About the EU-Chinese relations, after acknowledging there had been mistrust and ‘legitimate questions’ about China, as well as fears among Europeans, Macron hoped for a new start, based on ‘balanced rules’.
He was probably referring to the issue brought up by Hans Dietmar Schweisgut, the EU ambassador to China who said that the unity of the European Union “should be fully respected as countries from central and eastern Europe edge closer to China.”
“Responsibilities of the EU have to be fully respected,” Schweisgut asserted.
He was speaking of China-led 16+1 grouping, supposed to build ties with central and eastern European countries through investment and infrastructure deals. Since its launch in 2012, it has been extremely controversial within the EU, “amid concerns that Beijing is trying to create division by exerting its economic influence on smaller member states. Of the 16 European countries, 11 are members of the EU,” said the SCMP.
Will the Chinese leadership take into account EU’s core interests is an issue instead of trying to divide EU? This will need to be followed.
With his wife Brigitte, Macron later proceeded to Beijing where President Xi Jinping and First Lady Peng Liyuan hosted the French couple at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. During their first encounter, Xi affirmed said Macron's visit, as his first visit to Asia, showed that he was “paying high attention to the China-France relationship.”
Interestingly the First Ladies, Peng Liyuan and Brigitte Macron attended the meeting. It is rather unusual.
The Chinese president restated France was the first Western power to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in 1964: “Chairman Mao Zedong and General Charles de Gaulle made a historic decision with remarkable political foresight to forge diplomatic ties in 1964. …The decision not only changed the world pattern at that time."
Xi added: “In the new era, we should follow the spirit of being responsible for history.” He stressed that China wanted to build “a community with a shared future for mankind …France has similar views,” he said.
According to Xinhua, Macron said that “France would like to take an active part in the Belt and Road Initiative."
Xinhua quoted Xi saying that the world was facing great uncertainties and China would work closely with France on big international issues. It would also “strengthen cooperation under the framework of the belt and road.”
Macron answered that France would like to take part in China’s Belt and Road Initiative: “I came here to tell China my determination to get the Europe-China partnership into the 21st century,” but he reiterated: “I want us to define together the rules of a balanced relationship in which everyone will win. We must first decide on a frame together.”
Guess what the French President brought for his Chinese counterpart?
A horse from his elite French Republican Guard.
It does not mean that The Horse has tamed the Dragon.
One can however regret that the visit of the French President to India, scheduled in early December, was postponed. India with its affinities with France should have been the first country to receive the young dynamic French President. A missed opportunity?

Young President with many old challenges

President Macron En Marche?

My article Young President with many old challenges appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer


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It’s difficult to label Emmanuel Marcon as a Rightist or a Leftist. He himself would not wish to be categorised as it will hobble his functioning. India, meanwhile, has every reason to look forward to enhanced bilateral ties

France has decided. By default, some will say. After winning the most unexpected presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron is the new President of the French Republic. The 39-year-old former investment banker defeated Marine Le Pen of the National Front with more than 66 per cent of valid votes.
It is an extraordinary rise for Macron, France’s youngest-ever leader since Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte who was elected President in December 1848, at the age of 40. The leader of the En Marche! (‘On the Move!’) movement will also be the youngest among the G-20 leaders, before Justin Trudeau, who turned 45. By ‘default’, because the voters had not really a choice.
During the second round of the presidential election, more than 4.2 million electors (nearly 10 per cent of the 47.6 millions voters) who went to the booths, deposited a ‘white’ (blank) or ‘nul’ (invalid) ballot. A record!
On Sunday, just before 11 pm, Macron met his supporters near the glass pyramid of the world-famous courtyard of Le Louvre Palace in Paris. “Tonight, France won”, he solemnly declared. He told the jubilant crowd: “Merci mes amis!” (Thank you, my friends). He continued: “I want to thank those who voted for the defence of the Republic.” Then he addressed those who voted for Marine Le Pen, his unsuccessful rival: “I know our disagreements, I will respect them. You have expressed anger, disarray, sometimes conviction. I respect this.” Accepting her defeat, Marine Le Pen proposed a profound transformation of her xenophobic party, which will now have a new name.
In retrospect, it was the strangest French election campaign for decades. First novelty, primaries for the Left and the Central/Right were organised. Macron’s master-stroke was perhaps to have avoided the primaries… and a possible defeat against his former Socialist Party colleagues.
His political fate took a new turn in August 2015, while serving as the Minister for Economy and Industry in François Hollande’s Government, when he stated that he was no longer a member of the Socialist Party (PS).
On April 6, 2016, in Amiens in Northern France, he founded an independent political movement, En Marche!. He was then officially reprimanded by President Hollande (though some rumours say that the entire operation to get him elected may have been piloted from the Elysee Palace).
On August 30, 2016, Macron resigned from the Government, and on November 16 he formally declared his candidacy for the French presidency. He then promised to ‘unblock France’. Very few doubt that France needs to be ‘unblocked’. Despite the post-election euphoria, difficult times are awaiting the nation which invented the French Revolution.
Interestingly, this election saw the fading of the differentiation between the political Right and the Left. Symbolically, Macron the candidate, refuses to carry a label.  Though Macron’s party wants to challenge the entire political system, it might not be easy, knowing that he himself is a pure product of the establishment, having worked with Nicolas Sarkozy and Hollande.
Macron has been described a fervent European; in fact his victory gave an immediate boost to the Euro and the European stock exchanges. But which Europe?
Without being carried away like Le Pen who threatened to walk out of the Common Currency or even spoke of a ‘Frexit’, Macron will have to deal with a Europe needing more than a facelift. There is no doubt however that Macron’s victory created a sigh of relief in Europe; particularly the other side of the River Rhein. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was proably the first to call Macron to congratulate him.
It will be symbolic that at the time of Macron’s investiture in Paris, in a suburb of Beijing, China will be hosting a Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation attended by hosts of foreign heads of states and Governments. Chinese President Xi Jinping will preside over the summit in Huairou district’s Yanqi Lake area from May 14 to 15.  Though India may not be officially represented, Xi’s mega dream shows that the times have changed and dynamism has today shifted to the East.
Is there a place for Europe in the New Deal? Can a young President like Macron change the tide? But before this, he will have cross many hurdles.
The first one will be the nomination of a Prime Minister who has to be acceptable to a large political spectrum; then, soon after, a government will be announced. June might be the turning point with the holding of the legislative elections.
With its strange semi-presidential system, France may witness a ‘cohabitation’ when the President is from a different political party than the majority of the members of Parliament. The President has to name a Prime Minister acceptable to the parliamentary majority — in some cases, opposed to his policies. The Prime Minister must be acceptable both to the President and to the legislature. It is not an easy endeavour. This has happened a few times since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958, making governance difficult, to say the least.
At Le Louvre, Macron admitted that the future may be thorny: “I am aware that the task will not be easy, but I will tell you the truth … [but] I want the unity of our people, the unity of our country.”
Two days before the vote, hundreds of thousands of emails and documents stolen from Macron during his campaign were dumped online and then spread by WikiLeaks. How will the new President deal with this?
Through foreign policy had not been much discussed during the campaign, Macron will need to choose a path.
During Hollande’s presidency, the Russian President was made a demon. This absurd policy took such proportions that two Mistral-class helicopter carriers, which had been ordered (and paid for) by Moscow, were never delivered to the Russian Navy. There were finally sold to Egypt… with Saudi money.
Will Macron look at this afresh, or will his horizon be limited to Syria and Russia, with small incursions in Africa, like with his his predecessor?
And what about India? Soon after the result of the election, Prime Minister Modi tweeted: “Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron for an emphatic victory in the French presidential election. I look forward to working closely with [him] to further strengthen India-France ties.”
Now, much depends on the alchemy between Modi and the new French President. In any case, the strong strategic partnership between France and India will remain in place and several files such as those on Rafale and its offsets, the Scorpene, collaboration with a few smart cities or the Solar Alliance, are on track. Can it go beyond this, it is a million Euro question?

France has the Blues

Who will shift to the Elysée Palace in May?

My article France has the Blues appeared in Rediff.com


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'Who would have thought that Brexit would take place or Donald Trump would become US president or Kim Jong-un's madness could bring the prospect of nuclear war over Asia?'
'It is the time of the unexpected; the French elections should perhaps be seen in this perspective,' says Claude Arpi.

The world is going through strange times.
Is it not odd that so many unexpected things keep happening?
Who would have thought a few years ago that Brexit would take place or Donald Trump would become the President of the United States of America or Kim Jong-un’s madness could bring the prospect of a nuclear war over Asia. Indeed, it is the time of the unexpected; the French elections should perhaps be seen in this perspective.
Though eleven candidates are fighting hard to reside for the next five years, in the Elysée Palace, only one of them will ultimately make it.
Most electors agree that the ‘times are difficult’ for the nation which gave the triple Mantra of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity to the world (and too the Indian Constitution); today France has doubts about its future, ‘the blues’, one could say in Frenglish.
France is no longer in a revolutionary mood; during the last five years, a weak Presidency has demoralized the nation further. Francois Hollande, whose unpopularity popularity had beaten of the records, got the lowest rating any president of the 5th Republic; this is mainly due to his lack of charisma and some of his goof-ups (for example, getting caught by the paparazzis on a scooter visiting his girl friend).
General de Gaulle’s ‘grandeur de la France’ (France’s greatness) has long gone! Will France find a real leader to give again the nation a position in the world?
Another factor which is not limited to France, but has appeared elsewhere on the planet, is that the differentiation between the political ‘right’ and the ‘left’ does not mean much anymore. It is symbolic that the candidate, projected by the French media as the next president (Emmanuel Macron), refuses to carry a ‘rightist’ or ‘leftist’ label.
Regarding the opinion polls, there is today a quasi unanimity in the French public that they are manipulated either by the large ‘press groups’ or ‘influenced’ by powerful political parties; it is a fact the media today is unable to project what will happen on April 23.
I asked a mathematician friend of mine, who has worked on this issue, why the surveys were often ‘statistically’ wrong (Brexit, US elections, recent German by-elections, etc.); it was not the ‘fault’ of the theoricians, my friend said; but simply that the electors do not decide till the last minute for whom they are going to vote. A week before the first round, which will select the two candidates for a final round on May 7, 40% of French voters are still ‘undecided’. Further, the mathematician argues that in the recent elections, electors often change their preference at the last minute (this probably happens less in India).
One particularity of the present French presidential elections is that the ‘primaries’ were organized to select the candidates who will represent the ‘left’ and ‘centre/right’. On the socialist side, Benoit Hamon emerged as the winner, by defeating Hollande’s Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Unfortunately for Hamon, the two candidates from the ‘left’ who refused to participate in the primaries, are now far ahead in all polls.
First, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a hard core Communist who believes that Xi Jinping and modern China are examples to follow for France; his popularity has seen a unexpected surge, primarily because he is a good orator and having never been in power, has not been caught in any financial scams. Some are now projecting him to reach the second round for ‘la lutte finale’ (the final struggle). His present surge is probably boosted by the lack of credible candidates.
Macron is other candidate who refused to stand in the primaries (in the French political system, anybody who manages to collect 500 signatures from locally or nationally elected representatives can register his candidature.
Macron, the 38-year-old former Economy Minister of Francois Hollande (who earlier worked as an investment banker for Rothschild), wants to ‘bring optimism’ to the country; his party ‘En Marche!’ (‘On the Move!) challenges the entire political system. Though a pure product of the establishment, having worked first with Sarkozy, then with Hollande, Macron projects himself the anti-establishment candidate. Will he be the next President?
Millions already see him in the Elysée Palace with his wife, 20-years older than him. Cleverly, he has managed to remain vague on his program, trying to please the ‘right’ and the ‘left’ at the same time. Macron is however a fervent ‘European’, contrary to several other candidates who argue for a ‘Frexit’ or at least surgical reforms for the European Union.
Macron’s candidature has created a lot of confusion for the already confused left; Defence Minister Le Drian recently joined him, hoping to get a job in May and President Hollande is also said to be inclined to vote ‘Macron’, though the latter ‘deserted’ his Cabinet last year and subsequently criticized his government.
Confusion at its best …in the Land of Cartesianism.
During the primaries of the ‘right’, François Fillon, who served as prime minister under Sarkozy, defeated the ‘hyper’ former President and Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux, who had also served as Prime Minister in the past.
Each candidate has his own recipe to take the country out of the current depressing slump; the problem is, in France like in India or the US, will the candidate who makes it remember what he promised during the campaign? Doubtful. Macron is more honest; his promises are so vague that nobody can attack him later if he becomes president.
After the two ‘primaries’ most of the observers thought that it was ‘done’, Fillon would be the next President. His intentions of introducing drastic cuts in the bureaucracy to reduce the budgetary debts had made him rather popular, but…
But… the satirical weekly Le Canard Enchainé, published documents showing that for more than 30 years, Fillon’s wife, Penelope was employed by him as a Parliamentary Secretary ...while she was not working.
As the judiciary is looking into the accusations, Fillon has attributed it to a ‘Black Cabinet’ hosted in the Elysée. It is practically impossible for the former Prime Minister to come fully clean now; a small mercy for him, his direct opponent Marine Le Pen is facing the same accusations of having created ‘fictive’ jobs as a European parliamentarian. She has claimed parliamentary immunity and refused to appear before the judiciary. She also believes in a ‘Black Cabinet’ theory, which probably exists in a form or another (has any Indian leader in power snubbed the use of the IB or other agencies to promote their political purpose?).
While millions of voters apprehend the xenophobic policies of Marine Le Pen, many are attracted by her anti-migrants rhetoric, but can she expel all the illegal migrants or take France out of Europe?
The difficulties facing France in the volatile ‘banlieux’ (suburbs) and the wave of terrorist attacks in the name of Islam, not only in France, but also Germany and more recently Sweden, will get her votes in plenty.
Can she do it during Round 2 is the question that nobody can answer today.
It is why I say strange. There is even a candidate, François Asselineau, president of the Union populaire républicaine (Popular Republican Union) who speaks of Sri Aurobindo; unfortunately he does not seem to have grasped the integral philosophy of the Rishi; Asselineau has just one obsession …the Frexit.
Foreign policy has figured nowhere in the campaign.
If Fillon or Le Pen pass, there will certainly a rapprochement (a ‘rebalancing’ would be more correct) with theRussians. During Hollande’s presidency, Putin was made a demon. Fillon asserted that it was "ridiculous to portray Putin as a monster with hands full of blood". Filon and Le Pen would see Putin more as an ‘ally’ against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.
What about India?
India figures nowhere in the French periscope, though the sale of 36 Rafales brought some cheer in the morose economic landscape, what is happening in the subcontinent is of no interest of the electorate.
After winning the first round of the primaries, Fillon spoke of completely changing France’s ‘software’, but the hardware needs to be updated too.
This will be the job for the next president.
It is not clear who can undertake this task.