What do we know so far about the French presidential elections

My article What do we know so far about the French presidential elections appeared in DailyO.

Here is the link...

It was indeed the strangest French election campaign for decades. First the novelty: primaries for the Left and the Centre/Right were organised. After Francois Fillon, who served as President Nicolas Sarkozy’s prime minister, emerged as the winner on the Right side of the checker board, many thought that the former would be the next president.
Fillon’s intentions of introducing drastic cuts in the bureaucracy to reduce the budgetary debts had made him popular. But the satirical weekly, Le Canard Enchainé, published documents showing that for more than 30 years, Fillon’s wife Penelope was paid by him as a parliamentary secretary while she was not working.

Candidates
Though his direct opponent, Marine Le Pen, faced the same accusations of having created "fictive" jobs as the European Union parliamentarian, she claimed parliamentary immunity, thus refusing to appear before the judiciary. On the socialist side, Benoit Hamon emerged as the winner by defeating Francois Hollande’s Prime Minister Manuel Valls.
Unfortunately for Hamon, two "leftist" candidates refused to participate in the primaries and they eventually scored much better than Hamon during Round 1.
First, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a hardcore communist who believes that Xi Jinping and modern China are examples to follow for France; his popularity has seen an unexpected surge, primarily because he is a good orator and having never been in power he has not been caught in any financial scams. His surge was probably boosted by the lack of credible candidates.
Emmanuel Macron is other candidate who refused to stand in the primaries (in the French political system, anybody who manages to collect 500 signatures from locally or nationally elected representatives can register his candidature). In Round 1, in which the first two qualify for Round 2, the race was extremely tight between four of the eleven candidates.
Ultimately, Macron emerged the winner (24 per cent) and made it for Round 2 on May 7 with Marine Le Pen, second with 21.3 per cent. Fillon came third with 20 per cent, while Mélenchon scored 19.6 per cent. The socialist Hamon was far behind with 6.3 per cent.
Retrospectively, one could question the usage of the "primaries"? Though electors voted en masse (77 per cent), times are difficult for the nation which gave the triple mantra of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity to the world.
During the last five years, a weak presidency has demoralised the nation further. Hollande’s unpopularity had beaten all records, mainly due to his lack of charisma and many goof-ups. General Charles de Gaulle’s "grandeur de la France" (France’s greatness) has long gone.
One factor is the fading of the differentiation between the political "Right" and the "Left". It is symbolic that the candidate projected by the French media as the next president (Macron), refuses to carry a "rightist" or "leftist" label. A Kejriwal-isation of French politics?

Xenophobia
While millions of voters apprehend the xenophobic policies of Le Pen, many are attracted by her anti-migrants rhetoric. But the question is: can she expel all the illegal migrants or take France out of Europe?
Lately, it appears that she has not been too sure about fulfiling her promises. Like Donald Trump, who spoke big about building a wall with Mexico or denouncing the Chinese as currency manipulators, but once elected, the electoral promises are faced with hard real-politics — or as the French say, “Mettre de l’eau dans son vin (dilute your wine with water).”
In any case, it is doubtful whether she can gather enough support between the two rounds to win on May 7. During her May 1 rally, she gave a speech which appeared to have been lifted from one of Fillon’s speeches. But the difficulties before France in the volatile "banlieux" (suburbs) and the wave of terrorist attacks in the name of Islam may get her votes in plenty.

Cohabitation
On Sunday night, Macron, the 38-year-old former economy minister of Hollande (who earlier worked as an investment banker for Rothschild), may became a president by default. Though his party, "En Marche!" (On the Move!) wants to challenge the entire political system, it might not be easy knowing that he is a product of the establishment, having worked first with Sarkozy, and then with Hollande.
But cleverly, he has managed to remain vague on his programmes, trying to please the "Right" and the "Left" at the same time. Macron is, however, a fervent European.
With the legislative elections due in June, there are good chances that the French semi-presidential system could witness a "cohabitation" which is specific to the French system. When the president is from a different political party than the majority of the members of Parliament, he has to name a prime minister acceptable to the parliamentary majority. The prime minister must be acceptable both to the president and to the legislature.
It is not an easy endeavour. This has happened a few times since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958, making governance difficult, if not unmanageable. Interestingly, foreign policy has figured nowhere in the presidential campaign and India is even less in the French periscope.
Though the sale of 36 Rafales brought some cheer in the morose economic landscape, what is happening in the subcontinent is of no interest to the French electorate.

France has the Blues

Who will shift to the Elysée Palace in May?

My article France has the Blues appeared in Rediff.com


Here is the link...

'Who would have thought that Brexit would take place or Donald Trump would become US president or Kim Jong-un's madness could bring the prospect of nuclear war over Asia?'
'It is the time of the unexpected; the French elections should perhaps be seen in this perspective,' says Claude Arpi.

The world is going through strange times.
Is it not odd that so many unexpected things keep happening?
Who would have thought a few years ago that Brexit would take place or Donald Trump would become the President of the United States of America or Kim Jong-un’s madness could bring the prospect of a nuclear war over Asia. Indeed, it is the time of the unexpected; the French elections should perhaps be seen in this perspective.
Though eleven candidates are fighting hard to reside for the next five years, in the Elysée Palace, only one of them will ultimately make it.
Most electors agree that the ‘times are difficult’ for the nation which gave the triple Mantra of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity to the world (and too the Indian Constitution); today France has doubts about its future, ‘the blues’, one could say in Frenglish.
France is no longer in a revolutionary mood; during the last five years, a weak Presidency has demoralized the nation further. Francois Hollande, whose unpopularity popularity had beaten of the records, got the lowest rating any president of the 5th Republic; this is mainly due to his lack of charisma and some of his goof-ups (for example, getting caught by the paparazzis on a scooter visiting his girl friend).
General de Gaulle’s ‘grandeur de la France’ (France’s greatness) has long gone! Will France find a real leader to give again the nation a position in the world?
Another factor which is not limited to France, but has appeared elsewhere on the planet, is that the differentiation between the political ‘right’ and the ‘left’ does not mean much anymore. It is symbolic that the candidate, projected by the French media as the next president (Emmanuel Macron), refuses to carry a ‘rightist’ or ‘leftist’ label.
Regarding the opinion polls, there is today a quasi unanimity in the French public that they are manipulated either by the large ‘press groups’ or ‘influenced’ by powerful political parties; it is a fact the media today is unable to project what will happen on April 23.
I asked a mathematician friend of mine, who has worked on this issue, why the surveys were often ‘statistically’ wrong (Brexit, US elections, recent German by-elections, etc.); it was not the ‘fault’ of the theoricians, my friend said; but simply that the electors do not decide till the last minute for whom they are going to vote. A week before the first round, which will select the two candidates for a final round on May 7, 40% of French voters are still ‘undecided’. Further, the mathematician argues that in the recent elections, electors often change their preference at the last minute (this probably happens less in India).
One particularity of the present French presidential elections is that the ‘primaries’ were organized to select the candidates who will represent the ‘left’ and ‘centre/right’. On the socialist side, Benoit Hamon emerged as the winner, by defeating Hollande’s Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Unfortunately for Hamon, the two candidates from the ‘left’ who refused to participate in the primaries, are now far ahead in all polls.
First, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a hard core Communist who believes that Xi Jinping and modern China are examples to follow for France; his popularity has seen a unexpected surge, primarily because he is a good orator and having never been in power, has not been caught in any financial scams. Some are now projecting him to reach the second round for ‘la lutte finale’ (the final struggle). His present surge is probably boosted by the lack of credible candidates.
Macron is other candidate who refused to stand in the primaries (in the French political system, anybody who manages to collect 500 signatures from locally or nationally elected representatives can register his candidature.
Macron, the 38-year-old former Economy Minister of Francois Hollande (who earlier worked as an investment banker for Rothschild), wants to ‘bring optimism’ to the country; his party ‘En Marche!’ (‘On the Move!) challenges the entire political system. Though a pure product of the establishment, having worked first with Sarkozy, then with Hollande, Macron projects himself the anti-establishment candidate. Will he be the next President?
Millions already see him in the Elysée Palace with his wife, 20-years older than him. Cleverly, he has managed to remain vague on his program, trying to please the ‘right’ and the ‘left’ at the same time. Macron is however a fervent ‘European’, contrary to several other candidates who argue for a ‘Frexit’ or at least surgical reforms for the European Union.
Macron’s candidature has created a lot of confusion for the already confused left; Defence Minister Le Drian recently joined him, hoping to get a job in May and President Hollande is also said to be inclined to vote ‘Macron’, though the latter ‘deserted’ his Cabinet last year and subsequently criticized his government.
Confusion at its best …in the Land of Cartesianism.
During the primaries of the ‘right’, François Fillon, who served as prime minister under Sarkozy, defeated the ‘hyper’ former President and Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux, who had also served as Prime Minister in the past.
Each candidate has his own recipe to take the country out of the current depressing slump; the problem is, in France like in India or the US, will the candidate who makes it remember what he promised during the campaign? Doubtful. Macron is more honest; his promises are so vague that nobody can attack him later if he becomes president.
After the two ‘primaries’ most of the observers thought that it was ‘done’, Fillon would be the next President. His intentions of introducing drastic cuts in the bureaucracy to reduce the budgetary debts had made him rather popular, but…
But… the satirical weekly Le Canard Enchainé, published documents showing that for more than 30 years, Fillon’s wife, Penelope was employed by him as a Parliamentary Secretary ...while she was not working.
As the judiciary is looking into the accusations, Fillon has attributed it to a ‘Black Cabinet’ hosted in the Elysée. It is practically impossible for the former Prime Minister to come fully clean now; a small mercy for him, his direct opponent Marine Le Pen is facing the same accusations of having created ‘fictive’ jobs as a European parliamentarian. She has claimed parliamentary immunity and refused to appear before the judiciary. She also believes in a ‘Black Cabinet’ theory, which probably exists in a form or another (has any Indian leader in power snubbed the use of the IB or other agencies to promote their political purpose?).
While millions of voters apprehend the xenophobic policies of Marine Le Pen, many are attracted by her anti-migrants rhetoric, but can she expel all the illegal migrants or take France out of Europe?
The difficulties facing France in the volatile ‘banlieux’ (suburbs) and the wave of terrorist attacks in the name of Islam, not only in France, but also Germany and more recently Sweden, will get her votes in plenty.
Can she do it during Round 2 is the question that nobody can answer today.
It is why I say strange. There is even a candidate, François Asselineau, president of the Union populaire républicaine (Popular Republican Union) who speaks of Sri Aurobindo; unfortunately he does not seem to have grasped the integral philosophy of the Rishi; Asselineau has just one obsession …the Frexit.
Foreign policy has figured nowhere in the campaign.
If Fillon or Le Pen pass, there will certainly a rapprochement (a ‘rebalancing’ would be more correct) with theRussians. During Hollande’s presidency, Putin was made a demon. Fillon asserted that it was "ridiculous to portray Putin as a monster with hands full of blood". Filon and Le Pen would see Putin more as an ‘ally’ against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.
What about India?
India figures nowhere in the French periscope, though the sale of 36 Rafales brought some cheer in the morose economic landscape, what is happening in the subcontinent is of no interest of the electorate.
After winning the first round of the primaries, Fillon spoke of completely changing France’s ‘software’, but the hardware needs to be updated too.
This will be the job for the next president.
It is not clear who can undertake this task.

Serene French Elections?

I had written this before the televised announcement by President Hollande that he will not stand for next year Presidential Election. 
His withdrawal does not change much the analysis.

The French are known for their revolutionary spirit. One could have expected a lots of patakas during the Primaries of the Republican Party (Les Républicains), knowing that the winner of the contest will have good chances to win the Presidential elections next April.
After having watched for months the ugliness of the US Presidential campaign, it was a bit of a surprise (and comfort) to see that the seven candidates engaged in the first round kept a rather decent attitude.
Not only did the main contenders: Nicolas Sarkozy, the energetic former president, Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux and François Fillon, who served as prime minister under Sarkozy, discuss their respective programs of how to take France out of the current depressing slump, in a composed way, but there was hardly any viciousness in the debate.
However, this time again, like during the US election or the Brexit vote, the surveys went completely wrong. They had predicted an easy victory for Juppé, with Sarkozy closely coming second.
But on the ‘E’ Day of the first round, Fillon, who had been catching up in the last leg of the campaign, won with a hefty margin against Juppé.
The former PM won 44 % of the votes, while Juppé obtained 28 %. Sarkozy came third with 20 %, while the four other candidates finished with less than 3 percent (the only lady, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, coming 4th with 2.6 %).
Sarkozy immediately accepted the verdict. It is probably the end to his political career. Voters were certainly ‘tired’ of Sarkozy’s ‘hyper’ style of functioning and his harsh words for those who did not agree with him (he once told someone who refused to shake hands with him, “get out of my way, poor asshole”).
While millions of voters apprehend the extreme right of Marine Le Pen, (who was not part of the Republicans primary), during the first round, the ‘anything but Sarkozy’ was prevalent: the former President is under several investigations, including over allegations of receiving funds from former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi for his 2007 presidential campaign.
As he was leaving the political scene, Sarkozy advised his supporters to vote for Fillon in the second round: “[he] seems to have understood best the challenges that France faces."
Thereafter, the second round was a formality for Fillon who gathered 67% of the votes to be the presidential candidate for Les Républicains.
He is now the great favorite for the ‘real thing’ in April next year. With his radical rightist, though softer program, he will appeal to a larger electorate and probably defeat Marine Le Pen.
President François Hollande’s Socialist Party is in total disarray and divided over who should run for the 2017 elections. Hollande has beaten all the records of unpopularity (only 4% of the French approve his policies). It is mainly due to his lack of charisma and some blatant mistakes; for example things that a president should not do: riding on a bike behind his bodyguard to visit his girl friend or confiding State secrets to journalists for a book. Though he does not want to quit, Hollande is considered a definite looser.
To compound the President’s problems, his Prime Minister Manuel Valls is a likely candidate to the Socialist primary, while Emmanuel Macron, a close protegé of Hollande not long ago, has already announced that he will be a candidate for the top job.
The 38-year-old former Economy Minister (who worked as an investment banker for Rothschild) believes that he has witnessed the ‘emptiness’ of France’s political system; he wants now to ‘bring optimism’ to the country. Today, Macron’s party ‘En Marche!’ (‘On the Move!) directly challenges Hollande’s candidature.
The Time wrote: “In his position as Economy Minister, which he resigned from in August, Macron becomes an unlikely champion to many ‘outsiders’, like youth, immigrants and minorities.”
However, he is considered by others part of the ‘establishment’ due to his banker’s past. His candidature has certainly created further confusion in the left.
After winning first round with a large margin, Fillon declared: “My project will trigger a new hope," adding: "everywhere my fellow citizens told me they wanted change, authority and being respected."
These three points may take him to Elysée Palace a few months from now.
What really differentiates him from his opponents (Juppé and Hollande in particular), are his views on Russia.
During Hollande’s presidency, the Russian President has been made a demon. Fillon asserted that it was "ridiculous to portray Putin as a monster with hands full of blood". The presidential candidate also called for an end of EU sanctions against Russia as he sees Putin as an ‘indispensable ally’ against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria, advocating that France should support Bashar al-Assad against IS while helping the Syrian Christians.
Hollande’s anti-Putin campaign had taken such proportions that two Mistral-class helicopter carriers, which had been ordered (and paid for) by Moscow were never delivered to the Russian Navy. The deal had been signed in January 2011 by …Alain Juppé, then Defence Minister.
Hollande decided to refund Moscow and eventually, the two Mistrals were resold to Egypt (did Saudi Arabia paid the bill?). The latest gossip is that Egypt will sell them back to Moscow because the ships were fitted to Russian specifications. What an irony it would be.
After the second round, Fillon told his electors: "I will take up an unusual challenge for France, to tell the truth and completely change its software."
He will probably succeed to become the next French President; to change the software may not be so easy.

Migrating to the Middle Kingdom: Globalization (cont'd)

An article on the website chinasmack.com tries to look at 'what will China be like in the future?'.
It discusses, with humour, the Laowais [foreigners] as migrant workers in 2050 China.
The answer is shown by the French photographer Benoit Cezard who recently traveled across the Middle Kingdom, taking a set of photographs titled “China 2050″.
What is strange, says chinasmack.come is that the people in these photographs are mostly blue-eyed, big-nosed Laowais.
According to Benoit Cezard: "As China rapidly develops, future China’s migrant workers will be replaced by westerners, so they have to get used to it in advance.”

Well it could also be in India.
To start with, the French are now daringly crossing the 'British' Channel.
Last week, a news item on BBC News affirms that London is France's sixth biggest city: "More French people live in London than in Bordeaux, Nantes or Strasbourg and it is now thought to be France's sixth biggest city in terms of population. What is attracting a new generation of young French professionals to the city? ...Today there are French people in every corner of London and their numbers have been growing, with the result that in next week's parliamentary election in France they - along with expats in Scandinavia - will be voting for a candidate to represent them in the National Assembly.
The French consulate in London estimates between 300,000 and 400,000 French citizens live in the British capital - many in London's cutting-edge creative hub, in the East End."
France will next week elect its new National Assembly (Lower House). For the first time, 11 seats will be reserved for MPs representing the French living broad. It shows the importance that the French government gives to its 'migrants'.
It is probably true that poor economic prospects in continental Europe will push more and more young French graduates outside the hexagon.  
But will they move to China as migrant workers?
We shall have to wait for 2050 to know. 
In the meantime, we may have millions of Chinese working on infrastructure projects in Europe.
Globalization seems irreversible.
While waiting for 2050, you can read some of the Chinese comments on Sina Weibo on the new 'migrants':

Wow! These migrant workers are so sharp!

Well, I think they’re thinking of replacing/taking over China, where it becomes all Westerners, right? Their thinking is of a world without China.

Again the “Powerful China” theory…This person has ulterior motives…

Naked mockery…

My ass, [it's because] Chinese people have all immigrated to the USA [by then]…

This is a reminder to white people, what the consequence of high welfare and laziness/complacency are.

There are still tricycles/three-wheeled vehicles in 2050?

Did you not see that he wrote “to get used to it/adapt to it in advance.”? These aren’t renderings of 2050, it’s just photos of them getting used to the [future, coming] situation in the present day.

Laowai, you are flattering China too much…

[They are just] using the opportunity to make fun of us…

Laowai sure are humorous.

He is Normal, situation isn't

One more article on the French elections and President Hollande, He is Normal, situation isn't appeared today in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.
Francois Hollande takes over as France's President at a critical time. The economy is low and people's expectations from him are high. He has to manage both.
Click here to read...

Not just France, Future of Europe too is at stake

One more article on Francois Hollande' elections.
It appeared in DNA in Mumbai.

Soon after the election of François Hollande as the President of the French Republic, many Indian friends asked me: “What will happen to Carla?” I frankly don’t know and it is irrelevant. More instructive is something which happened on Sunday night as the results were announced on French TV. In the studios of the main public channel, three senior members of the Socialist Party and 3 representatives of the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement) were present, waiting for the countdown.
When the digital clock showed 8:00:00 pm, the results appeared on the screens of tens of millions of French viewers: with nearly 52% of the votes, Hollande defeated Nicolas Sarkozy, the ‘hyper’ outgoing President.
Joy exploded on the Place de la Bastille, where the Hollande’s supporters had gathered in thousands, while gloom descended on La Mutualité, where the UMP had organized a political rally for Sarkozy.
What was striking was that the first person to comment on Hollande’s victory was his former companion, Ségolène Royale, the loser of the 2007 presidential battle against Nicolas Sarkozy. Hollande and Royale, who lived together for 25 years, have 4 children. They met while studying at the ENA (Ecole Normale d’Administration), the most select school in France producing the top bureaucrats, diplomats and CEOs. As the charismatic Ségolène beamed while congratulating her former companion, I thought: “Poor lady!”
Five years ago, she was tipped to be the first woman President of France; around that time, she separated from Hollande and five years hence, it is Hollande who is elected to the post she had dreamed of.
It was like a Greek tragedy: she smiled and warmly congratulated Hollande (who has since another companion). We would say here in India, what Karma!
It shows one thing: Hollande had been able to rally all foes and friends around him to defeat the flamboyant Sarkozy.
It is probably during his tenure as Socialist Party’s First Secretary that Hollande learned the trick of being a man of consensus; there, he had no choice, with all the different factions and ‘currents’ trying to express their divergent views, often threatening to pull apart the Party.
It is these qualities that he will require to govern France, par excellence an ungovernable country; and this since the time of the Gaullish tribes.
One serious issue that the new President will have to face in the coming weeks is the state of Europe.
The ‘Merkozy’ couple played an important role in shaping a policy of ‘austerity’, but the tide seems to be turning. One of the main divergences between Hollande and Sarkozy during the campaign was Paris’ position vis-vis Berlin. Sarkozy must have felt the wind: after all, the German Model might not save Europe.
At the end of his campaign, during a large meeting on the Concorde Square in Paris, Sarkozy attacked the European Central Bank (ECB) asserting that the ECB should do more to revive European economic growth: “On the question of the ECB’s role in boosting growth, we French are going to open the debate.” He affirmed that there should be ‘no taboos’ in discussing the rules of the Eurozone, including a more growth-oriented role for the ECB. It was a U-turn on the President’s declared policy.
There were reasons for this: Francois Hollande was addressing another rally of sympathizers from the large esplanade of the Chateau de Vincennes, the royal castle in Paris, which was razed during the French Revolution. Hollande hammered that the German Model based on austerity should be abandoned. France’s relations with Germany and the European Union are now bound to change.
Though German Chancellor Angela Merkel phoned Hollande soon after the announcement of the results saying that she was ready to receive him ‘with open arms’, her spokesperson clarified that there was no question to come back on signed treaties, particularly on ‘financial discipline’. But can Europe continue the German way?
Nobel Prize laureate Paul Krugman believes that the elections in France and Greece: “were in effect referendums on the current European economic strategy, and in both countries voters turned two thumbs down.” He adds: “It’s far from clear how soon the votes will lead to changes in actual policy, but time is clearly running out for the strategy of recovery through austerity — and that’s a good thing”.
Will Hollande be able to use his consensus qualities without breaking the Franco-German couple and drop the German Model, so dear to Sarkozy?
The Socialist candidate has often repeated that when he becomes President, he would put an end to “austerity everywhere, austerity that brought desperation to people throughout Europe". One of the problems of ‘austerity’ is that it creates a depressive mood. Hollande has perhaps a chance to change the tide.
During the coming weeks, Hollande will travel to Washington at the invitation of Obama and to Berlin. His first foreign trips need to be closely followed; the future of France and Europe is at stake.

Can Hollande deliver a miracle for France?

Another article on Françcois Hollande's victory, Can Hollande deliver a miracle for France? This time posted on Sify.com.
Click here to read...

Hollande and Indo-French Relations

With nearly 52% of the votes, François Hollande, the Socialist candidate defeated Nicolas Sarkozy, the ‘hyper’ outgoing President in the French presidential elections.
One of the main characteristics of this campaign was the total lack of interest in foreign affairs; perhaps because both candidates are not too apart as far as France’s foreign relations are concerned.
Take Afghanistan, both Hollande and Sarkozy agreed to withdraw the French troops. The difference was just a question of timing; Hollande promised the departure of the French forces before the end of current year, while Sarkozy preferred to wait one more year.
There are also some divergences on the integration of the French Army in NATO. The main difference remains Paris’ position vis-vis Berlin. Some adjustment will have to be made by both ‘partners’ if the French-German ‘couple’ is to continue to give a lead to Europe.
Let us remember that the President of the French Republic is the elected Head of State with extended powers in the fields of defence and foreign affairs and some control over a Prime Minister nonetheless answerable to the Parliament.
In the field of foreign affairs, a turning point occurred just a week before the first round, when Sarkozy fired his last ammunitions at a large meeting attended by 100,000 participants (according to the organizers) on the Concorde Square in Paris (some observers counted only 25,000 people). The ‘news’ was Sarkozy’s attack on European Central Bank (ECB); he asserted that the ECB should do more to revive the European economic growth: “On the question of the ECB’s role in boosting growth, we French are going to open the debate.”
He affirmed that there should be ‘no taboos’ in discussing the rules of the Eurozone, including a more growth-oriented role for the ECB.
The mention of the ECB was a U-turn on the President’s previous policy. There were reasons for this: his main opponent Francois Hollande was addressing another rally of sympathizers (guess how many, also 1,00,000) from the large esplanade of the Chateau de Vincennes, the royal castle in Paris, which was razed during the French Revolution. Hollande said he could feel the country was on the brink of change: “I feel a great hope mounting from the depths of our country. A calm, firm, lucid hope of a change for the better."
After Sunday’s election of François Hollande, the relations with Germany and the European Union are bound to change.
The Socialist candidate has often repeated that when he becomes President, he would put an end to “austerity everywhere, austerity that brought desperation to people throughout Europe".

Relations with India
Many in India ask the question: will the election of Francois Hollande as President of the French Republic change Indo-French relations?
The answer is, probably not.
The word ‘India’ did not appear a single time during the entire campaign.
But to understand Hollande’s probable position, it is worth quoting an article published in Le Monde on May 22, 1981 titled: “India chooses the Mirage 2000 to modernize its Air Force”.
A day earlier, Francois Mitterrand had become the first elected Socialist President of the 5th Republic. At that time, Pakistan was trying hard to acquire F-16 fighter planes from the US; India’s purchase of 150 Mirage 2000 from France on this historic day had a symbolic implication.
In April 1982, a few months before President Mitterrand’s first State visit to India, the final agreement was signed. Though eventually all the Mirages were not delivered, the collaboration between Dassault Aviation and India has continued till date and during his last visit to India in December 2010, President Sarkozy signed an agreement for the ‘refitting’ of some 52 Mirages for about 2 billion dollars.
Before President Mitterrand’s second visit to India in February 1989, France concluded a contract for the feasibility study of the construction of an aircraft-carrier in the dockyards of Cochin for the Indian Navy; this project never fructified, but the intention was good.
One can expect President Hollande to follow in the footsteps of his political guru (Mitterrand) and ensure that the contract for the 126 medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) will be concluded at the earliest. It is in the interest of both France and India.
The selection of the Rafales (meaning a 'gust of wind') and their induction in the IAF will certainly mark a new beginning in the long and trusted partnership, started in the 1950's, between France and India.
While President Mitterrand laid the foundation of a solid friendship; the regular dialogue was institutionalized during President Chirac’s visit in 1998 through a ‘strategic’ partnership. Practically, it meant:

•  A Strategic Dialogue at the level of National Security Advisors (Sherpa) providing both sides an opportunity to review the evolution of the overall global security situation and emerging challenges in various parts of the world.
•  A High Level Committee for Defence at the level of Defence Secretaries, works through its three specialized sub-committees, dealing with issues related to defence cooperation.
•  A Joint Working Group on Terrorism has been established to cooperate in the fight against terrorism
•  Annual consultations between the two foreign ministries are held at the level of Foreign Secretaries.
•  A Joint Committee for Economic and Technical Cooperation at the level of Ministers of Commerce
•  Joint Naval Exercises
•  Aerial Exercises
•  Joint Research and Development

Whoever becomes President Hollande’s Sherpa (equivalent to the Indian NSA), these institutionalized mechanisms will remain in place.

Civil Nuclear Cooperation
In September 2008, France was the first country to sign a civilian nuclear deal with India.
In December 2010, President Sarkozy visited India for a second time. The main feature of his visit was the decision of Delhi and Paris to build two European Pressurized Reactors (also known as Evolutionary Power Reactor or EPR) of 1650 MW each for an estimated cost of about 9.5 billion dollars. A ‘framework agreement’ was signed. Due to the complexity of the project between Areva and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), it will take some more time for the project to reach its final conclusion.
The Jaitapur site in Maharashtra will ultimately have six reactors and produce 10,000 MW of power, a boon for ‘developing’ India. The Joint Declaration rightly says that “the signing of the General Framework Agreement between NPCIL and Areva represents a significant milestone.”
Will President Hollande honour these agreements?
Let us have a look at Candidate Hollande’s electoral promises in the nuclear field? There are 3:

• To reduce the share of the nuclear in electricity production from 75% to 50% by year 2025.
• To close down the Fessenheim, the first French nuclear plant dating from the 1950’s
• To pursue the construction of the EPR in Flamanville

No doubt that President Hollande will vigorously pursue the Indo-French collaboration in Jaitapur by giving all necessary assurances to the Indian authorities and public about the safety of the ‘evolutionary’ plants.

Education
One domain where a lot needs to be done is the field of educational exchange.
Mrs. Valerie Pécresse, a former French Minister for Higher Education had announced in 2007 a target of 4000 Indian students going to France for higher studies. Two years later, when President Sarkozy visited India, the objective had not been reached.
At that time, collaboration between IIT Jodhpur and France was started with much fanfare. The scheme is today progressing at a slow pace. According to The Indian Express: “France has termed the IIT Jodhpur academic environment and faculty rather unimpressive and the IIT in turn has said what the French are offering them is far too little for an institute of its stature.”
There is a lot to be done in this field, which could a crucial element to lay a more sustainable foundation for the partnership.
Let us not forget that during the past 5 years, a large number of French companies such Michelin, Renault, Alstom, etc. have put up factories in India and they need to employ French-speaking Indian graduates.
President Hollande or his Education Minister will have to work hard on the issue.
As for cultural relations, they will go on regardless of who is at the helm of India or France.
There is however no doubt that a solid political relation with France could balance India’s foreign relations which have often tilted towards the United States or Russia.

Bye Sarko, Hullo Hollande: What France's new president means for India

My article on François Hollande's elections as the next President of France, Bye Sarko, Hullo Hollande: What France's new president means for India is posted on  Rediff.com.

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A Change of French Guard

France has a new President.
Francois Hollande with nearly 52% of the votes defeated the outgoing flamboyant President, Nicolas Sarkozy.
The turning point of the campaign was the TV debate between the two candidates of the final round: Nicolas Sarkozy, the outgoing President and Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate. It was watched by more than 19 million people in France (on a population of 63 million).
After the debate, The Independent in London summed it up: “something unusual happened. François Hollande became the president; Nicolas Sarkozy became the challenger.”
In fact for the last few months, Sarkozy’s problem was that he was in the challenger’s position, not a single survey poll having credited him with figures allowing him to spend five more years in the Elysée Palace.
While some of Sarkozy’s friends had boasted that he would "tear Hollande to shreds", it did not happen and the UMP’s (Union for a Popular Movement) candidate had to be more and more aggressive, with Hollande playing “Mr. Cool”.
Between the two rounds, a blogger rightly analyzed: “Now Sarkzoy has to wake up those who did not vote, activate their fears and harden his stance against Hollande.” The outgoing President was condemned to conduct a virulent campaign, and by contrast, it reinforced the coolness and peacefulness side of Hollande’s campaign à la Obama (“The Change is for Now” is Hollande’s motto).
During the 3 hour debate, a jumpy Sarkozy, with his usual tics and body movements, called Hollande a ‘liar’ several times; especially when the candidates did not agree on figures about employment or immigration. This did not help his image.
Then, Hollande used what the Americans call a ‘zinger’. The dictionary gives an example: “she tried to think of some killer of an argument, a real zinger that would disarm all opposition”.
He started a long tirade (more than 3 minutes, each second of the debater being rigorously counted) in a regal tone (or more correctly a presidential voice): “Moi, President de la République, je …(I, President of the Republic, I…). He repeated 16 times the zinger: “I will do this…, I will not do this…” taking examples of actions, decisions or declarations when Sarkozy had obviously been wrong (like for example interfering in the judicial system or not being above petty politics).
That was it.
The most surprising perhaps, was that Sarkozy did not interrupt Hollande; he listened silently. It was as if he was at the end of a too long journey during which he had relentlessly spent his energies ‘to save France’ from a fate similar to Greece.
Hollande had won the last round of a fight which lasted for several months and which should give a new direction to France, in internal affairs at least, if not in external ones.
But can it really be different?
The style, no doubt will be different. It is ‘Sarko’s style’ more than his political decisions which have been rejected by the voters on Sunday.
The first round of the French 2012 presidential elections held on April 22 did not bring any great surprise. Francois Hollande, passed the post first with 27.6% of the votes, followed by the seating President, Nicolas Sarkozy who obtained 26.1%; the third contender was far-right Marine Le Pen with 17.9%. Communist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon who was predicted to reach the 16% bar, only got 11%, nearly 7 points behind Le Pen.
The international press mainly commented on the good score of Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the veteran extreme-right provocateur. A few months ago, she thought that she could topple Sarkozy and reach the second round; she nonetheless did well, sending shivering waves down the spine of the pollsters.
Interestingly, the rightist party always gets more votes than forecast in the surveys for the simple reason that many voters do not want it to be known that they support the National Front and its xenophobic policies.
One remarkable feature of the first round was the 80% turnabout.
Let us recall that the President of the French Republic is elected for five years with extended powers in the fields of defence and foreign affairs and some control over a Prime Minister answerable to the Parliament.
A common feature is that most of the electors very much doubted whether the future President would be able to solve the economic problems facing the country; this was reflected in Round One’s results: for the first time, the outgoing President did not get the top score. Another characteristic of these 2012 elections is the boredom of the campaign.
The problem is that nobody has the panacea to sort out the economic and social problems facing the country. More than 75 % of the French believe today that globalization is something negative and that the concurrence from countries like India or China will further affect employment. People are also disappointed by the role of the European Union in national affairs. Many like Le Pen believe that a solution would be to walk out of an EU, too bureaucratic in their eyes.
Traditionally, France does not witness massive shifts of votes between the two rounds and the forecast before the first round usually come true two weeks later: it is why it was nearly impossible for Sarkozy, the outgoing President to retain his job on May 6.
A day after the first round, Le Monde titled, “Hollande and Sarkozy in quest of the National Front votes”; the centrist newspaper tried to analyze how the two contenders could manage to convince those who voted for Le Pen to shift their preference to their own candidature. It did not work. Marine Le Pen called for ‘blank’ votes.
The problem of Sarkozy was that once a hyper-President, he has partially lost his shine. He even had to apologize for his ‘people’ (Page Three) period during the first years of his Presidency and the rude words he used against some of his countrymen. The (in)famous “Casse toi, pauvre con” (get out of my way, asshole) remained particularly stuck to his image. Further, less and less electors believe that he can deliver fresh miracles despite his hyperactivity.
One journalist who covered the election explained that the Sarkozy style of functioning has ‘stressed’ the French. Though his image of a man in a hurry and ‘doing things’ had fascinated during the first years of his mandate, many are now tired with his ‘hyper’ aspect. The mottos of Sarkozy’s election campaign however remained, “Only I can get France out of the crisis” “I am fighting for a ‘France Forte’ (powerful)”.
It is not that Hollande was an exciting postulant; further he does not have the charm and the charisma of his ex-companion, Ségolène Royal, Sarkozy’s rival in 2007; but the Socialist candidate has the advantage of incumbency. This does not make the campaign thrilling.
Will Hollande be unable to fulfill his promises of creating 60,000 teaching posts, partially roll back the pension age from 62 to 60 and tax the rich, charging them an income-tax rate upto 75% of their revenue? It has to be seen.
One issue which came up during the two rounds is France’s relation with Germany. What about the Merkozy couple? Will we see the emergence of a Merhollande? It may take some time.
The German Chancellor's agenda of forcing austerity programs all over Europe is not acceptable to François Hollande.
One of the key questions for the financial markets is the relations between France and Germany. Sarkozy's relationship with Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor has not always been easy, but it worked and gave a lead to Europe when the Euro Zone was in a bad shape.
What may aggravate the situation is the fact that the German Chancellor has blatantly sided with the outgoing President during the campaign. Even after the first round, putting on a brave face, her spokesman declared: “the Chancellor continues to support President Sarkozy.”
This has certainly not been appreciated in Hollande’s camp which believes that Germany places too much emphasis on budget cuts, and not enough on national growth. Hollande has often stated that when he becomes President, he will put an end to “austerity everywhere, austerity that brought desperation to people throughout Europe".
But it is easier said than done.
Can he really assure the French of a brighter future?
In a few years from now, we will know.

Sarkozy set to lose race

My article Sarkozy set to lose race appeared in The Pioneer.
Click here to read...

French presidential elections: A lacklustre affair.

My article posted below appeared yesterday in the DNA under the title French presidential elections: A lacklustre affair.
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Non, Non, Non

Charlotte is a very sweet baby, but she always says ‘no’.
Her video uploaded in December 2010 on YouTube immediately went viral: it has been watched 14 million times.
She has now a French avatar; the chubby baby who always says ‘no’, has been adapted for the sake of the forthcoming French presidential elections.
The interviewer asks Charlotte: “Tu votes pour Nicolas Sarkozy?” (Do you vote for Sarkozy?” Charlotte says “Non!”. For François Hollande? “Non!” For Jean-Luc Mélenchon (the Communist Party’s candidate)? Non!” For Marine Le Pen (the aspirant of the far-right National Front? “Non!” Francois Bayrou? ‘Non!’
And so on, for all the 10 candidates! The 2012 two-round French presidential election will be held on April 22 and May 6; the two first candidates on April 22 being selected for the second round.
The President of the French Republic is the elected Head of State with extended powers in the fields of defence and foreign affairs and some control over a Prime Minister nonetheless answerable to the Parliament.
Charlotte has a point: since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has never witnessed such boring elections.
The new Constitution of the Fifth Republic which replaced the old parliamentary system, undoubtedly brought a stability to the institutions;, a majority of the electors is however aware that the future President will not be able to solve all the tough problems facing the country.
Sarkozy, once the hyper-President, has lost his halo. He even had to apologize for his ‘people’ (Page Three) period during the first years of his Presidency while less and less electors believe that he can deliver new miracles.
Hollande has never been an exciting postulant; further he does not have the charm of his ex-companion Ségolène Royal, Sarkozy’s rival in 2007; the Socialist candidate remains ahead in all surveys and will in all probability be the next President. He has the advantage of incumbency. But this does not make the campaign thrilling.
Bayrou, the eternal looser is unable to bring enthusiasm to a campaign becoming duller by the day; Bayrou, who wants to be the ‘alternative’ has been downgraded to the fifth place in the surveys.
Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the veteran extreme-right provocateur, Jean-Marie Le Pen is not doing as well as she expected. A few months ago, she thought that she could topple Sarkozy and reach the second round. She now arrives in the fourth place behind Mélenchon, the only candidate who keeps progressing, probably thanks to his wild populist promises. But one can’t expect a modern country to return to a Bolshevik system à-la-Chinese.
The less one speaks of the other candidates, the better.
Will the last days of the race, become more ‘sexy’ or at least slightly less boring? No, no, no would say Charlotte.
The real issue is that nobody has the solutions to sort out the economic and social problems facing the country. There is no readymade panacea.
More than 75 % of the French believe today that the globalization is something negative and that the concurrence of countries like India or China will affect further employment.
Very few believe today that a solution will come from the European Union, which is ‘too bureaucratic’ and excessively centralized in its decision process.

The British press never misses an occasion to make fun of the French. The Economist calls France 'A Country in Denial'. The cover story points out: “What is most striking about the French election is how little anybody is saying about the country’s dire economic straits. The candidates dish out at least as many promises to spend more as to spend less. Nobody has a serious agenda for reducing France’s eye-watering taxes. Mr Sarkozy, who in 2007 promised reform with talk of a rupture, now offers voters protectionism, attacks on French tax exiles, threats to quit Europe’s passport-free Schengen zone and talk of the evils of immigration and halal meat.”
Hollande will probably be unable to fulfill his promises “to expand the state, creating 60,000 teaching posts, partially roll back Mr Sarkozy’s raise of the pension age from 60 to 62, and squeeze the rich” charging them with an income-tax rate upto 75% of their revenue?
Many thought the gruesome killings of military personnel and Jewish kids in Southern France could bring some spice into the campaign, or at least open a real debate. Though each candidate presented his own recipe to tackle this tricky issue, the barometer of the surveys did not move.
When candidates have not much to promise, what is left to say?
In India, it is easier, you can always promise a fridge, a cycle (or a motorbike), a laptop or a grinder, but the French already have all this.
So what to promise? A brighter future?
But who can be certain to deliver the goods? 
One should ask Charlotte!

Atypical Terrorism?

Do you know how Rasputin died? Guseva, a prostitute, planted a knife into Rasputin's abdomen and screamed, "I have killed the antichrist!" Tsar Nicholas II’s Machiavellian advisor however recovered. Later, he was served cakes and red wine with cyanide; he still did not die. He was later shot ‘dead’, but managed to escape. Several more bullets would be necessary to finish him off.
The RAID (Research, Assistance, Intervention, Deterrence), the crack commandos attached to the French police responsible to arrest 23-year old Mohamed Merah compared the young French of Algerian origin to Rasputin.
After the deaths of three French paratroopers, three Jewish schoolchildren and a rabbi, shot dead at a 4-day interval in the Southern cities of Montauban and Toulouse, Merah became the most-wanted person in France
When after a 32-hour standoff, the elite commandos entered his house, in which Merah had barricaded himself, they were received by volleys of bullets. The RAID had no choice but to return fire.
Merah received some 30 bullets, mostly in the arms and legs (a few of them piercing through his bullet-proof jacket) before he finally collapsed.
During the early negotiations with the Police, Merah had agreed to surrender, but later the RAID discovered that he had used these ‘talks’ to meticulously plan the fortifications in his house, particularly the shower where he rested during the night to be prepared for the final assault.
A neighbour had informed the Police: “he is like a cat, he practiced jumping over cars.” One of the commandos who participated to the assault told Secret Defence, a well-informed defence blog, “He was physically extremely impressive. He was shooting very fast (with three guns), moving at the same time. I have never seen such an efficient guy, except amongst us (RAID commandos).”
The entire episode however raises several questions.
In recent years, no event has stunned France as much as the awesome killings of military personnel and the Jewish kids. The precision, the ‘skills’ of these cold-blooded murders sent the French Government into a frenzy.
Further these events occurred only a few weeks before the crucial Presidential elections in which the outgoing President is far from the favorite.
Any faux-pas could have proved fatal for both Sarkozy or Hollande, the main contenders. Retrospectively, one can say that the 10 declared candidates have kept a decent posture, unanimously condemned the killings in the strongest terms and supported the police action.
Many thought that the incident and the 24-hour media spotlight on Toulouse could help boost the chances of Sarkozy to come back in the pre-poll surveys. It may not be the case, mainly due to what experts called the goof-up of the RAID. I still remember, one Indian commando, speaking on Indian news channels during the operations of 9/11 in Mumbai, explaining, “we are trained to kill”. It is not the case of the 168-personel RAID force; they are taught to catch terrorists alive. One can easily understand that a live jihadist will give more information than a dead one; Mohammed Ajmal Kasab is the best example.
From this angle, the RAID operations were a failure, but could it have been otherwise with the highly trained and heavily armed Merah? The comparison with Rasputin speaks for itself.
Should the Intelligence agencies, mainly the DCRI (Central Direction for Internal Intelligence) have been more vigilant?
Many voices, including the Foreign Minister, Alain Juppé, have raised some concern: “I understand that the question can be asked, was there a flaw or not, one should bring some light on this”.
The DCRI answers that since 2011 they had a file on Merah; one official told Le Monde: “Cases like Merah’s, are most difficult for us”. Merah apparently went through a ‘self-radicalization’ after several trips to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2010 and 2011, but he did not belong to any known networks.
When in November 2011, he was interrogated by the DCRI about his trips to Af-Pak, he showed the officer ‘touristic’ pictures.
Intelligence agencies believe that if this type of individual encounters known jihadist groups, the surveillance level needs to be upgraded. According to the DRCI, hundreds of young Westerners visit the tribal zone, without automatically being a hard core terrorist.
While Merah’s brother, Abdelkader had the perfect physical and moral profile of a jihadist (he has also been arrested), Mehra had a more atypical profile; he was even seen in a night-club a couple of weeks before the attack. That is why, tighter tailing was not considered necessary. It is at least the justification of the DRCI whose close links with Sarkozy can explain their retrospectively guarded approach: “one can’t illegally watch someone who has not demonstrated his dangerousness”, an expert told Le Monde.
The fact remains that after being arrested in Kandahar, Merah was on a U.S. no-fly list kept by the FBI forbidding him to fly to the US.
Probably a serious slip-up for the French Intelligence; but a more worrying perspective is the emergence of atypical terrorists on the jihadist scene!