Serene French Elections?

I had written this before the televised announcement by President Hollande that he will not stand for next year Presidential Election. 
His withdrawal does not change much the analysis.

The French are known for their revolutionary spirit. One could have expected a lots of patakas during the Primaries of the Republican Party (Les Républicains), knowing that the winner of the contest will have good chances to win the Presidential elections next April.
After having watched for months the ugliness of the US Presidential campaign, it was a bit of a surprise (and comfort) to see that the seven candidates engaged in the first round kept a rather decent attitude.
Not only did the main contenders: Nicolas Sarkozy, the energetic former president, Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux and François Fillon, who served as prime minister under Sarkozy, discuss their respective programs of how to take France out of the current depressing slump, in a composed way, but there was hardly any viciousness in the debate.
However, this time again, like during the US election or the Brexit vote, the surveys went completely wrong. They had predicted an easy victory for Juppé, with Sarkozy closely coming second.
But on the ‘E’ Day of the first round, Fillon, who had been catching up in the last leg of the campaign, won with a hefty margin against Juppé.
The former PM won 44 % of the votes, while Juppé obtained 28 %. Sarkozy came third with 20 %, while the four other candidates finished with less than 3 percent (the only lady, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, coming 4th with 2.6 %).
Sarkozy immediately accepted the verdict. It is probably the end to his political career. Voters were certainly ‘tired’ of Sarkozy’s ‘hyper’ style of functioning and his harsh words for those who did not agree with him (he once told someone who refused to shake hands with him, “get out of my way, poor asshole”).
While millions of voters apprehend the extreme right of Marine Le Pen, (who was not part of the Republicans primary), during the first round, the ‘anything but Sarkozy’ was prevalent: the former President is under several investigations, including over allegations of receiving funds from former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi for his 2007 presidential campaign.
As he was leaving the political scene, Sarkozy advised his supporters to vote for Fillon in the second round: “[he] seems to have understood best the challenges that France faces."
Thereafter, the second round was a formality for Fillon who gathered 67% of the votes to be the presidential candidate for Les Républicains.
He is now the great favorite for the ‘real thing’ in April next year. With his radical rightist, though softer program, he will appeal to a larger electorate and probably defeat Marine Le Pen.
President François Hollande’s Socialist Party is in total disarray and divided over who should run for the 2017 elections. Hollande has beaten all the records of unpopularity (only 4% of the French approve his policies). It is mainly due to his lack of charisma and some blatant mistakes; for example things that a president should not do: riding on a bike behind his bodyguard to visit his girl friend or confiding State secrets to journalists for a book. Though he does not want to quit, Hollande is considered a definite looser.
To compound the President’s problems, his Prime Minister Manuel Valls is a likely candidate to the Socialist primary, while Emmanuel Macron, a close protegé of Hollande not long ago, has already announced that he will be a candidate for the top job.
The 38-year-old former Economy Minister (who worked as an investment banker for Rothschild) believes that he has witnessed the ‘emptiness’ of France’s political system; he wants now to ‘bring optimism’ to the country. Today, Macron’s party ‘En Marche!’ (‘On the Move!) directly challenges Hollande’s candidature.
The Time wrote: “In his position as Economy Minister, which he resigned from in August, Macron becomes an unlikely champion to many ‘outsiders’, like youth, immigrants and minorities.”
However, he is considered by others part of the ‘establishment’ due to his banker’s past. His candidature has certainly created further confusion in the left.
After winning first round with a large margin, Fillon declared: “My project will trigger a new hope," adding: "everywhere my fellow citizens told me they wanted change, authority and being respected."
These three points may take him to Elysée Palace a few months from now.
What really differentiates him from his opponents (Juppé and Hollande in particular), are his views on Russia.
During Hollande’s presidency, the Russian President has been made a demon. Fillon asserted that it was "ridiculous to portray Putin as a monster with hands full of blood". The presidential candidate also called for an end of EU sanctions against Russia as he sees Putin as an ‘indispensable ally’ against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria, advocating that France should support Bashar al-Assad against IS while helping the Syrian Christians.
Hollande’s anti-Putin campaign had taken such proportions that two Mistral-class helicopter carriers, which had been ordered (and paid for) by Moscow were never delivered to the Russian Navy. The deal had been signed in January 2011 by …Alain Juppé, then Defence Minister.
Hollande decided to refund Moscow and eventually, the two Mistrals were resold to Egypt (did Saudi Arabia paid the bill?). The latest gossip is that Egypt will sell them back to Moscow because the ships were fitted to Russian specifications. What an irony it would be.
After the second round, Fillon told his electors: "I will take up an unusual challenge for France, to tell the truth and completely change its software."
He will probably succeed to become the next French President; to change the software may not be so easy.

A French paradox of the economic kind

La République Square in Paris

My article A French paradox of the economic kind appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.

Here is the link...

On the one hand, rolling labour strikes and a poor business environment has made France less attractive to foreign investors. But on the other, key industries like ship-building, defence and tourism are growing strong

'C’est la lutte finale’ (This is the final struggle/the internationale unites the human race): These words are often heard in Paris these days. In France, May is traditionally the month of pleasant weather, but also the period when the French go on strike. I witnessed it again when I recently paid a visit to my family.
This year, the new wave of strikes is against a new labour Bill, known as the El Khomri law after the lady Minister who introduced it. For the General Confederation of Labour, the hardline trade union, like every spring, the ‘rolling strikes’ are a ‘make-or-break’ situation. Why? President François Hollande had dared to invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the Government to bypass Parliament to get the new labour law through.
The Government used this rare procedure because part of the ruling Socialist Party was ready to vote against its own Government and like in India, whenever the Government proposes a reform, the Opposition does everything to block it just for the sake of opposing something they would have liked to propose themselves.
A ‘rolling strike’ is a French specialty: It is when truckers, rail workers, dockers, airport staff, teachers, etc, go on strike one after the other without prior notice. These ‘strikes’ have, however, serious consequences.
A recent study on attractiveness across Europe shows that while the old continent is generally improving, France is left behind. The report published by the respected firm EY (formerly Ernst and Young), does not agree with President Hollande’s statement that France is “doing better”. The report says that there are worrying signs for the French economy: Of the 15 countries included in the survey, France was the only one to see an overall drop in ‘attractiveness’ in 2015.
While some 600 new foreign investment projects were started in France in 2015, there was an overall drop of two per cent compared to 2014. At the same time, the UK and Germany saw a rise of 20 per cent and nine per cent respectively, with Hungary achieving a 104 per cent increase. Even if France did well in some sectors, this did not translate into actual investments and less than a quarter of investors were planning new projects in France for 2016.
During the present outbreak of strikes, President Hollande, whose popularity has rock-bottomed in recent months, has remained firm: “Too many Governments have given in, that’s why the country was in the state we found it in 2012. A compromise has been reached, a balance has been found, the pro-reform unions and the majority of Socialist supporters are behind this reform,” he said in an interview, though more than 1,000 protesters have already been arrested and 300 people have been hurt in clashes with the police.
There is, however, a French paradox: The country is doing better in several fields. The largest cruise ship in the world was built in the western port town of Saint-Nazaire. It took 32 months in the French shipyard to construct the 362 meters long, 16-deck the floating city which has some 2,500 rooms, 20 dining venues, 23 swimming pools and a park with more than 10,000 plants and trees. The one-billion-dollar Harmony of the Seas has 6,360 passenger capacity.
In April, MSC Cruises signed with STX of Saint-Nazaire, for four new cruisers. The 2,00,000 tonne ships, based on next generation technology, should be delivered in 2022. Australia has also selected DCNS, the French ship-building giant, to build 12 ship submarines. Many analysts were caught by surprise as the state-owned company — which is building six scorpène class submarines in India with the Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited — was in competition with the Japanese as well as Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. The contract is said to be for $38 billion.
And of course, there is the Rafale combat aircraft which has done rather well last year: Twenty-four planes were sold to Egypt and 24 to Qatar, and hopefully soon 36 pieces will be sold to India. Despite the long process (probably due to political considerations after the publicity around the Augusta-Westland scam), Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has now announced that the deal should be signed this month.
Incidentally, companies like the Saint Nazaire dockyards, after near-death experiences a few years ago, have special agreements with their trade unions. This probably explains their performance.
Despite these examples, France, however, is hardly attractive for foreign, particularly Indian, investments. A few months ago, Business France, the national agency helping the international development of France’s economy, released its annual report for 2015. It analysed foreign investments in France and their contribution to the French economy.
Though over 120 Indian companies are operating in France, employing some 7,000 people, it is not much, despite companies like Aequs, a Belgaum-based company specialising in developing and producing engineering solutions for the aerospace, automotive and oil sectors, acquiring the Besançon site of the French company Sira which employs 320 people.
Besides the seasonal strikes, several factors are responsible for this low performance: A tough French visa policy, the difficulty of the language (compared to the UK for example) or the lack of knowledge about India in general. As a result the general investment climate is not rosy.
To aggravate this there is a severe brain drain. The daily Le Monde recently published a study showing that this is becoming an inescapable trend. Prepared by the Council of Economic Analysis, a report entitled “Préparer la France à la mobilité internationale croissante des qualifies” (Prepare France for qualified people’s mobility) speaks of the exodus of French brain power. According to the National Institute of Statistics, between 3.3 million and 3.5 million people, born in France and aged between 25 years and 55 years, live abroad.
The rate of expatriation has doubled between 1980 and 2010. Though emigration is less than in countries like Germany, and the emigration and immigration of qualified people more or less balance each other, the worrying aspect is that the incoming brains do not settle in France for long — they usually return to their country after a few weeks.
But douce (sweet) France is the world’s top tourist destination (with 84.7 million foreign tourists in 2013) — and tourism is a key sector of its economy, accounting for more than seven per cent of the gross domestic product and two million direct and indirect jobs.
There are indeed many great culinary goodies in France which we can’t advertise in these columns, and though the state of Emergency is still in force after the terrorist attacks of November 2015, the picturesque villages, the old manors, the quiet rivers and the inimitable capital, Paris, with its cafes, museums and shows, remain special.
Despite the seasonal strikes, and even if France if not always Innovative France, it is still Charming France — the best proof is in the large number of Chinese tourists clicking selfies around the Eiffel Tower.

France strikes again

In France, May is traditionally the month of pleasant weather, but also the period when the French go on strike.
Considering that as a student I lived through the momentous month of May 1968, I should not have overlooked this detail when I booked a ticket to visit my family.
This year, the French confront a new wave of strikes; this time it is against a new Labour bill, known as the ‘El Khomri Law’ after the lady minister who introduced it.
For the CGT, the hard-line trade union, like every spring, the ‘rolling strikes’ are a ‘make-or-break’ situation. Why?
Francois Hollande’s government has invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing the government to bypass the parliament to get the new labour law through.
The Government used this rare procedure because part of the ruling Socialist party were ready to vote against their own government and like in India, whenever the Government proposes a reform, the opposition does everything to block it …for the sake of opposing something they would have liked to propose themselves.
You may ask what a ‘rolling strike’ is.
It is a French specialty, when truckers, then rail workers, then dockers, then airport staff, etc, go on strike one after the other.
President Hollande, whose popularity has rock-bottomed in recent months, has remained firm: “Too many governments have given in, that’s why the country was in the state we found it in 2012. A compromise has been reached, a balance has been found, the pro-reform unions and the majority of Socialist supporters are behind this reform,” he said in an interview, though more than 1000 protesters have already been arrested and 300 people have been hurt in clashes with the police.
But despite the periodical turbulences and the seasonal depression, France is doing ‘better’, in Hollande’s words.
Not everybody is convinced, but some facts speak for themselves.
Take the order from MSC Cruises, signed in April with STX of Sant-Nazaire, for four new cruisers. The 200,000 tons ships will be able to carry 5,400 passengers each; the first one, based on a next-generation technology, will be delivered in 2022.
Then Australia selected DCNS, the French shipbuilding giant, to build 12-ship submarines. Many analysts were caught by surprise as the state-owned company — which is building 6 scorpene submarines in India with the Mazgaon docks — was in competition with the Japanese and Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). The contract is said to be for US $38 billion.
In his April 26th announcement, the Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said that the decision was ‘unequivocally’ in favour of the French: “This was the absolutely unambiguous recommendation from the Department of Defence that came through the competitive evaluation process.”
And of course, there is the Rafale combat aircraft which has done rather well last year: 24 planes were sold to Egypt and 24 to Qatar, and despite the prevarication of the Modi Sarkar (probably due to political considerations after the publicity around the Augusta-Westland scan), Delhi will sign for 36 pieces.
France however remains hardly attractive for Indian investments. A few months ago, Business France, the national agency helping the international development of France’s economy, released its 2015 Annual Report: Foreign investment in France. It analyzed foreign investments in France and their contribution to the French economy. Though over 120 Indian companies are operating in France, employing some 7,000 people, it is not much despite companies like Aequs, a Belgaum-based company specializing in developing and producing engineering solutions for the aerospace, automotive and oil sectors, acquiring the Besançon site of the French company Sira which employs 320 people.
Due to several factors such as the tough French visa policy, the labour laws (pre the 49.3 procedure), the difficulty of the language (compared to UK for example), and also the lack of knowledge about India in general, the investment climate is not rosy.
Another sign: last week, the daily Le Monde published a study showing that the brain-drain from France is becoming an inescapable trend.
Prepared by the Council of Economic Analysis, a report entitled “Préparer la France à la mobilité internationale croissante des qualifies” (Prepare France for qualified people’s mobility) speaks of the exodus of French brain power. According to the National Institute of Statistics, between 3,3 and 3,5 million people, born in France and aged between 25 and 55, live abroad.
The rate of expatriation has doubled between 1980 and 2010, and though the emigration is less than in countries like Germany and the emigration and immigration of qualified people more or less balances, the worrying aspect is that the incoming brains do not settle in France for long; they usually return to their country after a few weeks.
Despite all this, France is the world’s top tourist destination (with 84.7 million foreign tourists in 2013) and tourism is a key sector of its economy, accounting for more than 7% of GDP and two million direct and indirect jobs.
There are indeed many great eatable and drinkable goodies which we can’t advertise in these columns, and though the state of Emergency is still in force after the terrorist attacks of November 2015, the picturesque villages, the old manors, the quiet rivers and the inimitable capital, Paris with its cafes, museums or shows, remain very special.
My country of origin (and Asterix’s too) remains “Douce France, doux pays de mon enfance’’ (Sweet France, Sweet Country of my childhood). My parents’ generation loved these lyrics of the famous French crooner Charles Trenet.
Changing France, even if not always innovative France (mainly due to the seasonal strikes), remains charming France.

It’s a horror!

My article It’s a horror! appeared in The Asian Age and The Deccan Chronicle today.

Here is the link...

Can Old Europe continue with the present policy towards migrants? What is the future of the Schengen Agreement? Will we see a return to a Europe with borders?

"Terrorist Massacre in Paris”, “The Horror”, “Carnage in Paris”, “The War in the Centre of Paris” — On Saturday morning I woke up to these headlines in the French press when all I wanted to know was the result of the football match played in the Stade de France in Paris between France and Germany. Usually, this match resembles a Test match between Pakistan and India, the brother-enemies thrashing out their differences on the field. This time, however, it was more than a “friendly” match — during the first half of the game, many in the stadium heard three loud explosions.
It was only when the match was over that the spectators got a fuller picture and realised that four people had died in the proximity of the stadium, three out four casualties were suicide bombers themselves.
French President Francois Hollande, present in the stadium, had to be immediately escorted away to attend an emergency Council of Ministers meeting and to address the nation. While the spectators in the stadium were still dispersing in a relatively calm atmosphere, Mr Hollande announced a state of emergency over the entire territory of France.
During the following two hours, at least five more venues, in different areas of Paris, were struck. Everyone still carried in their mind the morning of January when two brothers, Saïd and Chérif Kouachi, entered the offices of the French satirical weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris.
Armed with assault rifles, they killed 12 people and injured 11 others. They identified themselves as members of the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda. While leaving, they shot a police officer posted outside the building. A while later, several other attacks took place in the Île-de-France region. Five more were killed and 11 wounded.
Two days later, the brothers were shot dead by police commandos outside a factory in Dammartin-en-Goële in Paris’ suburbs.
This triggered a tremendous popular reaction in France and, on January 11, about two million people, including more than 40 world leaders, marched down the streets of Paris
This was hardly 11 months ago.This time some 130 people have been killed and more than 200 injured — the worst terror attack in France’s history.
In his televised intervention, Mr Hollande said, “Terrorist attacks of an unprecedented level are underway across the Paris region. It’s a horror.”
He was referring to the attack in the Bataclan, a popular concert hall in Paris. It was packed with 1,500 people for a concert by the US band Eagles of Death Metal. One hour into the concert, four gunmen in all black walked onto the stage and calmly and methodically started firing at the concertgoers. A radio presenter who was present first thought it was part of the show, “but we quickly understood. They were just firing into the crowd.” It soon turned into “a bloodbath”, another witness later said.
One attacker told the crowd, “It’s the fault of Hollande, it’s the fault of your President, he should not have intervened in Syria.”
According to the latest reports, the four assailants were later killed when the riots police stormed the Bataclan, “three by activating their suicide vests and a fourth shot dead”.
The tally is horrific: Four casualties near the Stade de France, five dead at rue de la Fontaine au Roi; 12 dead at rue Bichat; one terrorist killed on boulevard Voltaire; 19 persons died at rue de Charonne and more than 80 in Bataclan.
To understand what happened, it is important to look at an event that occurred three days earlier. Bernard Cazeneuve, the French home minister, announced that a terrorist attack had been thwarted in Toulon, the naval base in southern France.
Toulon hosts important naval installations and is also where the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is based.On October 29, Hakim, a 25-year-old resident of the city, was arrested and charge-sheeted for planning a terrorist attack on some French naval personnel.
Since the summer of 2014, Hakim was being monitored by the Directorate-General for Internal Security (DGSI), the branch of the French police responsible for anti-terrorist fight. They had got wind of Hakim’s plan to leave for Syria to fight on the side of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
A few months earlier, he had been noticed by the DGSI sleuths after he had posted violent jihadist messages on Facebook.
Hakim was at that time in contact with 21-year-old Mustapha Mokeddem, an ISIS recruiters living in Toulon who had been arrested in September 2012, after he sent threats to Charlie
Hebdo for publishing cartoons of Prophet Mohammad. A usual scenario followed: Hakim met Mokeddem who convinced him to join the “jihad”, but Hakim failed to leave for Syria in October and December 2014. Two months later, Hakim was banned from leaving the French territory and his passport confiscated. Then, encouraged by Mokeddem, he decided to “act in France”.
When he received two parcels containing some assault weapons and hoods, the police arrested him. Apparently, his target was some of the 12,000 personnel working for the French arsenal in Toulon. He told the French police that since a few months the ISIS had been telling new recruits that if they are unable to join the “Caliphate”, they should prepare attacks in France. In one video, Salim Benghalem, an ISIS member, was seen exhorting his “brothers” to become “solitary wolves” and to fight the “infidels”. “Kill them with knives, spit in their face as much as you can,” were his injunctions.
The attacks in Paris seem to have been coordinated with a new level of sophistication, without the DGSI and other intelligence agencies getting wind of it. What is particularly worrying is the large amount of arms and ammunition used by the terrorists.
This raises serious questions for Old Europe: Can it continue with the present policy towards migrants? What is the future of the Schengen Agreement, which provides free circulation for people and goods within the area? Will we see a return to a Europe with borders?
That would be very sad indeed.Even when the state of emergency is lifted, these questions will probably have not found answers.
In India, a lot has been said recently about “intolerance”, but on November 13, France experienced “intolerance” with its blood (like India did in 2006). Year 2015 will indeed remain a dark year for France.

Modi’s ‘Yugantar’ moment

My article Modi’s ‘Yugantar’ moment appeared in The Asian Age and The Deccan Chronicle.

Here is the link...

It was perhaps the first time that a PM considered the defence procurement priority of the country over the babus’ and other considerations... and over his own pet project ‘Make in India’, which will now be delayed for years

It was perhaps the first time that a PM considered the defence procurement priority of the country over the babus’ and other considerations... and over his own pet project ‘Make in India’, which will now be delayed for years
Official visits by heads of state or government are like vital surgical operations — if you come out of the operation theatre alive and are back in your room, it is deemed a success. However, it is only with the passing months or years that the quantum of success can really be determined.
At the end of the second day of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France, the suave ministry of external affairs spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin said, “…the visit was extremely successful. It met all the key goals that were targeted and we hope this will enhance our ties with France and take them to the next level.”
Mr Akbaruddin mentioned the nuclear front, “a wide variety of issues including defence”, the railways, the “Make in India” programme and visas “within 48 hours” for Indian tourists wanting to go to France. All this is good, but not special.
The spokesman also spoke of “smart cities”. It is true that in India, very few (apart from the Prime Minister) care about smart cities; we know too well that local politicians would first have to become “smart” themselves: a difficult proposition.
But what was “smart” was the unexpected Rafale deal.
It was perhaps the first time that a Prime Minister considered the defence procurement priority of the country over the babus’ and other considerations… and over his own pet project “Make in India”, which will now be delayed for years, at least as far as the technology transfer for the Rafale is concerned.
The move was particularly smart as it will cost India much less. To buy 36 “off-the-shelf” Rafales will come to some $4 billion, which means one-fourth or one-fifth the original plan to “Make in India” 108 planes with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), a government undertaking always prone to delays and over-costs.
Though there is nothing about the multi-role combat aircraft in the 20-point “list of agreements/initiatives/announcements” inked during Mr Modi’s visit in Paris, the French and Indian media were unanimous in saying that the main outcome of the Hollande-Modi encounter was the “purchase” of 36 Rafales for the Indian Air Force (IAF).
Only the joint statement issued at the end of the meeting between the French President and Indian Prime Minister mentioned the Rafales. Point 14 says: “The Government of India conveyed to the Government of France that in view of the critical operational necessity for multi-role combat aircraft for Indian Air Force, Government of India would like to acquire (36) Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible.”
The fact that (36) is in bracket shows that the agreement about the number was arrived at the very last minute.
The interesting point is that “the two leaders agreed to conclude an inter-governmental agreement for supply of the aircraft… the delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF,” and the plane will be in the same configuration “as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force.”
In other words, a separate “inter-government” contract will be signed. So is the Rafale deal really done? Probably. In December 1981, the purchase of 150 Mirage 2000s was announced to counter the American F-16 ordered by Pakistan, but the final agreement was for 40 planes only, although a preferential credit rate of 9.25 per cent was then offered to India. At that time too, the IAF needed the fighter aircraft quickly. Defence minister Manohar Parrikar later clarified that India took the government to government (G2G) route because three years’ negotiations for the transfer of technology produced no results. His hope is that the Rafales would be inducted in the IAF in two years’ time.
The 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) scheme is clearly defunct. The tragedy is that India has lost years to reach the decision to buy “off-the-shelf”. The initial request for information had been issued in 2001, 14 years ago! It was only six years later that the request for proposal (RFP) was published, as the then defence minister, A.K. Antony, wanted to add new clauses, such as the total life-cycle costs, in the Indian defence procurement policy.
Five years later, in January 2012, Dassault Aviation was selected for supplying to the IAF after a long competitive process, which lasted five years with the American F/A-18 and F-16, Russian MiG-35, European Eurofighter and Swedish Saab Gripen in the race. Why so many years to come back to the starting blocks?
Because of the complicated and tortuous defence procurement policy drafted by the former “honest” defence minister. The inter-governmental agreement will put the last nail into the MMRCA deal. Considering that until the time the Indian delegation arrived on Thursday ahead of the Prime Minister, tough discussions were still on for the 126 planes (the bone of contention being the 108 to be manufactured in Bengaluru), it was a quick, pragmatic, “out of the box” and smart move to bring the “critical operational necessity” of the IAF on the negotiating table and dropping the MMRCA framework.
The modalities, number and delivery framework could not be completed in time to be included in the joint statement, but the French were relieved when the Indian Prime Minster confirmed the “deal” during his joint press conference with Mr Hollande. The IAF and the Indian finance minister, Arun Jaitley, must be relieved too.
A French defence blog wrote that till the time Mr Modi spoke, the French had been like Saint Thomas wanting to “see” before believing. The rest is history.
When Mr Modi visited the Airbus headquarters, he was told that the European company is ready to increase their sourcing from India by 500 per cent during the next five years (from $400 million today to $2 billion in 2020). It was a cherry on Mr Modi’s “Make in India” programme.
A touching moment was the visit to a World War I memorial in Neuve Chapelle, near Lille in northern France. Mr Modi spoke about the 10,000 Indians who lost their lives while fighting alongside France: “India is known as the land of sacrifice and devotion.” He reiterated that Indians never fought to expand their territorial boundaries, but for justice: “India is a nation that has always believed in world peace.”
The French persons of Indian origin, assembled in the Carrousel du Louvre, Paris, were delighted to hear the Prime Minister say: “From my experience I can say that India has no reason to remain poor.”
A special event was the visit to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation where Mr Modi spoke on Indian and universal values. Before reaching the main auditorium, he bowed in front of Sri Aurobindo’s statue installed outside the building.
An Indian agency said that he paid tribute to Rabindranath Tagore. Despite the lapsus, the great poet had an immense admiration for the rishi. After visiting Puducherry in 1928, Tagore wrote: “Rabindranath, O Aurobindo, bows to thee! O friend, my country’s friend, O voice incarnate, free, of India’s soul.” The poet added, “You have the word and we are waiting to accept it from you. India will speak through your voice to the world. Hearken to me!”
The message of India not only as a great economic, but also civilisational nation is slowly percolating to foreign countries.
This also helped to make the visit a success.

The benefits of having a Gujarati prime minister

My article The benefits of having a Gujarati prime minister is posted in Rediff.com.

Click here to read...

Narendra Modi knows how to calculate and remain pragmatic.
Take the unexpected Rafale deal -- perhaps the first time a PM has considered the country's defence procurement as a priority, over the considerations of the babus' and over his own 'Make in India' project,' says Claude Arpi.

The advantage of having a Gujarati prime minister is that he knows how to calculate and he remains pragmatic.
Take the unexpected Rafale deal agreed in Paris during Narendra Modi's visit. It is perhaps the first time that a prime minister has considered the country's defence procurement a priority, over the considerations of babus' and over his own pet project 'Make in India', which will now be delayed for years, as far as the technology transfer for the Rafale is concerned.
The move was particularly pragmatic because it will cost less to India's exchequer. Buying 36 Rafales 'off-the-shelf' will cost some 4 billion Euros, which means one-fourth or one fifth the original plan to 'Make in India' 108 planes with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, a government undertaking always prone to delays and over-costs.
Further, it will bring the required 'oxygen' for the Indian Air Force which faces two rather aggressive neighbours with a rapid depletion of its fleet.
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, who did not accompany the prime minister on his trip (Modi travelled without a single minister, the senior-most member of his delegation being Ajit Doval, the national security advisor), said that it is a 'great decision.'
He hoped that the Rafale will be inducted into the IAF in two years time, adding that: 'India has finally broken the ice over the deal which has been pending for the last 17 years.'
Parrikar had it wrong, it is 14 years, but that is a detail.

To continue reading, click here...

Bon appetit Mr Modi!

My article Bon appetit Mr Modi! appeared in Rediff.com

'Make in India' will be central to Mr Modi's visit to Europe and Canada. It is difficult to predict what will happen with the Rafale deal, but if it goes through, it will undoubtedly become the 'Mother' of all 'Make in India' projects,' says Claude Arpi.

Remember when President Xi Jinping landed at Ahmedabad in September 2014? Prime Minister Narendra Modi was determined to give Xi and Peng Liyuan, his beautiful wife (and renowned former opera singer), a genuine taste of ModiLand.
The two leaders took a stroll down the picturesque Sabarmati riverfront with Madame Peng and sat on a traditional Gujarati swing; it set the stage for difficult bilateral talks.
Similarly, French President Francois Hollande will give a taste of Douce France (Sweet France) when Narendra Modi arrives in Paris.
The Elysee Palace has planned a romantic evening boat ride on the river Seine in Paris, the first stop of Modi's three-nation trip to Europe and Canada which begins on April 9.
Diplomatic sources quoted by The Hindustan Times affirmed: 'A boat ride on the Seine river will not only make the trip memorable but bring the two leaders closer to pushing for a bilateral partnership.'
The strategic partnership signed in 1998 during President Jacques Chirac's visit to India will need a 'push' because a lot of water has flowed under the 37 bridges over the Seine (in Paris only) since then.
Mr Modi is now determined to sell his flagship 'Make in India' scheme soon after it was launched, many foreign investors discovered they were already doing this, without realising it, it was indeed encouraging.
At the time he embarks on his European visit (after France, the prime minister will open the Hanover Fair with German Chancellor Angela Merkel), this should be helpful.

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Modi’s visit to France and ‘The Make in India’ project

Narendra Modi will dine on a péniche on the river Seine

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is embarking on a 9-day tour abroad during which he will visit France, Germany and Canada. His first stop will be in Paris (April 9-12).
A few comments on his visit to France:

The good news first
On April 6, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar ‘undocked’ the first of the six Scorpene submarines to be built in collaboration with France under Project 75, at the Mazagon Docks Limited (MDL).
The ceremony for ‘floating out' the first Scorpene submarine was an occasion for Mr. Parrikar to review the progress of the Project 75, in collaboration with DCNS of France.
After the ‘undocking’, for the first time the submarine entered into waters (with the help of a pontoon).
An Indian Navy official told the media: “While the launch would be a more significant event, the floating out of Scorpene will commence its sea trials and more importantly, clear the dry dock that it presently occupies for the construction of the next one.”
It is a promising progress for the ‘Make in India’ scheme. It is also shows that despite the difficulties and the delays, it is possible.

The ‘refitted’ Mirages
Perhaps as an appetizer for the Rafales deal, the IAF got its first two upgraded Mirage-2000 with new avionics and weapons at the end of March.
An ‘acceptance’ ceremony for the IAF’s Mirage 2000 I/TI was held at Istres, in South France on March 25. Among those present were Arun K. Singh, ambassador of India to France, Eric Trappier, chairman and CEO, Dassault Aviation and Pierre Eric Pommellet, executive vice president of Thales. The contract for ‘refitting’ the IAF's Mirage 2000 was signed in July, 2011. The upgrade ‘kit’ provided by Thales comprised new radar, electronic warfare suite and mission computer.
An official told The Times of India: “The upgraded Mirages have been stripped down and virtually re-built with state-of-the-art avionics, radars, mission computers, glass cockpits, helmet-mounted displays, electronic warfare suites and long-range missiles.”
Of course, the appetizer can’t replace the main course (Rafales), but one has to remain patient.

The ‘Maitri’ project
An important decision was recently taken by the Defence Acquisition Council: it approved the ‘Maitri’ project for the co-development of a Short Range Surface-to-Air Missile (SR-SAM) by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) with MBDA of France.
The project has been ‘pending’ since 2007 and apparently, Delhi will now go for the marine version as the DRDO’s Akash missile system satisfies the Indian Army and the Air Force.
The ‘Maitri’ project, like the ‘Brahmos’ with Russia, could become a success story for the ‘Make in India’. The signature on the SR-SAM deal could be the ‘main dish’ of Modi’s present visit.

Coastal Surveillance Radar System
According to The Economic Times (ET), India and France are expected to discuss the sharing of radar data in the Indian Ocean as part of their strategic talks during Narendra Modi's visit to Paris.
India is setting up a grid of coastal surveillance radars in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) which should help monitoring the region. France has apparently expressed an interest in sharing data from its surveillance systems.
The ET says that “the modalities of sharing maritime domain awareness data from at least three French monitoring sites in the Indian Ocean is set to be on the agenda. French territories in the region include the Reunion Islands and Mayotte, besides military bases in UAE and Djibouti.”
Apparently, the Indian Navy is keen on the French proposal and would like it to be part of an ambitious plan to set up a 24-nation radar grid in the IOR to monitor all traffic, civilian and military. “As part of the plan, India could also lend financial aid to littoral nations for setting up radars. In the future, surveillance data from other military sites, including the American base at Diego Garcia, could be integrated,” says the ET.
It is however doubtful if France will agree to ‘counter’ China in the region.
On April 3, Chinese and French military officials reached a consensus in Beijing “on enhancing cooperation in exchange of ship visits, joint drilling and countering terrorism at sea.”
Gen. Fang Fenghui, chief of general staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) met with Admiral Bernard Rogel, chief of staff of the French Navy in Beijing.
According to Xinhua, Admiral Bernard Rogel during his recent visit to China, declared that the rapid development of Chinese Navy's armaments and the excellent personnel quality left a deep impression on him: “He pledged to deepen mutual understanding and enhance cooperation with the Chinese side in the aspects of fleet visits, joint drilling and training as well as fighting against maritime terrorism.”

‘Varuna’ Joint Exercices with the Charles de Gaulle Carrier
The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which has recently been inducted against the Islamic State from the Persian Gulf, will participate in the Indo-French exercises ‘Varuna’ later this month.
Varuna will be held for 10 days in the Arabian Sea between the French and Indian Navies. It will also involve India's aircraft carrier, the INS Vikramaditya as well as other Indian warships and a submarine.
During the exercises, the French Navy will use Rafales (M), the ‘navalised’ version of the Rafale currently under negotiations with Delhi.
The exercise will begin on April 23 and continue till May 3. The French will also bring two destroyers and a support ship.
The Indian media reported: “The navalised version of the aircraft is adapted to land and take off from carriers. The Indian Navy's main fighter jet is the Russian MiG29K. The fleet is being integrated with the Vikramaditya.”
The French side is keen to expose the Indian Navy to the Rafale (M), with the hope that a first-hand experience of the fighter jet, may convince the Indian Navy, if not the MoD, to add a few Rafales (M) in India’s wish list.

Visit to ToulouseOne highlight of the PM’s trip will be the visit to Airbus Industries headquarters in Toulouse. At stake in Toulouse, a $2-billion contract for eight Airbus A-330 MRTT mid-air refuelers, a deal pending for over two years. There is also a proposal for buying two Airbus A-330 aircraft for the IAF which is keen to acquire AWACS (Airborne warning and control system). India’s ‘eye in the sky’ could be mounted on Airbus A-330 with Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)-developed rotodome radar fitted on it.
The Prime Minister will probably be shocked when he discovers that the Chinese recently bought the Toulouse Blagnac airport.

What is the ‘Make in India’ scheme?
Mr. Modi’s ‘Make in India’ dream is something which should kept in mind while analyzing the significance of the Prime Minister to France (and Germany).
I witnessed the new craze during the recent Aero India 2015, organized at Yelahanka Airport in Bangalore (‘Make in India’ was the theme of the event).
Most of the foreign participants, even the Americans, were effusively enthusiastic about the scheme.
Foreign investors understood that the government was serious when, in August 2014 , Delhi notified an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) limit to 49 % in the defence sector. The move was aimed at boosting India’s domestic industry and creating confidence amongst eventual investors.

A Policy Change
In Bangalore, the Prime Minister had the opportunity to clarify that India is ready for a major change in direction: “I am confident that India will emerge as a major global centre for defence industry. We want to develop an industry that is dynamic.”
The Indian Prime Minister wanted to end India's status as the world's number one defence importer; India’s objective is to have 70 % (from the current 40 %) of hardware manufactured domestically by 2020.
Mr. Modi explained: “We have the reputation as the largest importer of defence equipment in the world, that may be music to the ears of some of you here. But this is one area where we would not like to be number one."
‘Make in India’ will undoubtedly be central to the Prime Minister’s visit to Europe.
But there is a long, long way to go.

A Civil Nuclear Deal?
Apart from French investments in India, space and civil nuclear cooperation, infrastructure investment, terrorism and other security issues, will also be on the table. Narendra Modi has redrawn his week-long tour of Europe-Canada tour to make Paris the first stop, before proceeding to Hannover.
In September 2008, India and France signed the first civilian nuclear agreement and consequently, a General Framework Agreement between Areva and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) for the construction of 6 European pressurized reactors (EPR) at Jaitapur in Maharashtra was inked in December 2010 during President Sarkozy’s visit to India.
An Indian diplomat told The Hindustan Times: “The supply of EPRs will be on top of PM Modi’s agenda but much depends on the closure of commercial negotiations between the two companies.”
The finalization of the plans however depends on the economic and technical viability of these nuclear plants and as important, on an accord about ‘nuclear liabilities’.

The Indo-French Economic Cooperation
The French investments in India are progressing rather well with the total investment stock of French companies in India reaching nearly $19 billion.
French Embassy sources believe that in the next to 4 to 5 years, the stock of French investments in India will significantly increase with the consolidation and extension of existing investments, and the influx of new French companies in India. A Special Representative for Indo-French Economic Relations (Paul Hermelin, the CEO Capgemini) has been appointed by the French President for the purpose.
Today 950 French companies (350 companies and 400 subsidiaries, as well as 200 individual entrepreneurs) are said to be implanted in India; they employ some 3,00,000 skilled Indian workers.
French Embassy sources say that these French companies have brought their know-how and technology and many have begun opening research and development centres in India (already employing between 15,000 and 20,000 persons).

France and ‘Make in India’
Last September, more than 20 French companies attended the launch of the ‘Make in India’ campaign; to cite a few: Alstom, Dabon-Bongrain, Danone, Faurecia, Lafarge, Legrand, L’Oréal, Michelin, Renault, Roquette, Safran, Sanofi Pasteur India, Schneider Electric, SEB, SERAP, Saint-Gobain, Total, Valeo and Vicat.
Let us look at a few examples: Renault-Nissan has begun production in May 2010 on a 640-acre integrated plant in Chennai, with an investment of €700 million. It has now an annual capacity of 480,000 units with a workforce of more than 15,000 employees.
Michelin set up a 290-acre campus, 50 km north of Chennai; it already manufactures a wide range of radial truck/bus tyres.
Last October, Safran, a world leader in aerospace, defence and security, which provides the engine of the Rafale (through its subsidiary SNECMA) signed two agreements with Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi, and Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore, to develop advanced pattern recognition algorithms for complex data and advanced computing platform for the next-generation avionics applications.
Another case is Saint-Gobain’s modern manufacturing facility in Rajasthan. A French press release says: “this state-of-the-art, fully automated float line covers a surface area of 27 acres and has a manufacturing capacity of close to 1000 tons of glass per day (3,00,000 metric tons per year). Once the plant is fully operational (by mid-2015), Saint-Gobain will have a total installed production capacity of 9,000 tons of glass per day.”

The French presence in South India
The French presence in South India, particularly in Chennai and Pondicherry is worth noting; more than 100 enterprises are implanted in the South.
Apart from Renault and Michelin already mentioned, large French groups such as Alstom, Saint-Gobain, Lactalis have set up factories in Chennai. Interestingly, the management of these large companies is progressively transferred to local cadres, while the French personnel continue to focus on quality control and over-all financial management.
The main focus is presently automobiles and transport (such as Alstom Transport which produces metro bogies) and energy like Sicame (electric material), Schneider, Cryolor (cryogenic tanks), Legrand and Socomec (UPS). Saint-Gobain also has a large factory in Chennai.
In Pondicherry, the focus is more on hospitality, tourism as well as Internet editions and web design.

Cooperation in the field of Education
During the visit of President Hollande in India in February 2014, some 15 Memoranda and Letters of Intent were signed in the field of education. An example: the MOU between the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore and the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris was inked aiming at cooperating ‘within any field of mutual interest related to science and technology’. This series of MoUs not only deepens the Indo-French academic relations, but will have long-term consequences for the over-all relations between the 2 countries.
More recently, an 'Advanced Masters Course in Air Navigation Service Provider Management' was launched at the CATC (Civil Aviation Training College) facilities in Hyderabad. It is a joint project of ENAC (Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile), CATC and AAI (Airports Authority of India). The objective is to train a new generation of AAI Managers to ensure airport security and safe operations.
Hopefully, other such projects will see the light during Mr. Modi’s visit to France.

Indian companies in France
One usually forgets that some 100 Indian companies are today operating in France. In December 2012, according to the Banque de France, their investment-stock was $ 565 million.
The main investments in France are in textile, clothing and accessories (25%), software and IT services (13%), aerospace, naval and railway (13%), consulting, engineering and business services (13%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnologies (13%), metalworking (13%).
More than 50 % of these investments are located in 2 regions (Paris- Ile-de-France and Nord-Pas de Calais).
It is usually not known that 4% of all foreign R&D investment projects in France come from Indian companies.
Sintex Industries (chemicals, plastics), Tata Steel, Tata Sons (IT Services) and Deltronix and Motherson Sumi Systems (both automotive industry) are the largest Indian employers in France.

Brussels: the visit that never was
It is unfortunate that the visit of Prime Minister Modi was cancelled due to the callousness of the Brussels bureaucracy; they just forgot to answer the PMO about a date for the visit.
The EU had earlier hoped for a 'political push' to restart the stalled talks for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as well as “sticky issues relating to intellectual property rights (IPR), data security for IT services and tariff in the automobile sector,” said PTI.
The EU has been India's largest trading partner and the two-way commerce reached $ 101.5 billion in 2013-14.
A small positive step: the EU has recently lifted the ban imposed on the import of Indian mangoes. In April last year, the EU had temporarily banned import from India of Alphonso mangoes and four vegetables, taro, bitter gourd, snake gourd and eggplant, for which the ban has still not been lifted. More positive signs will have to come from Brussels to start meaningful talks.
India is active and keen to open new avenues. For example, in October 2014, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the Indian Minister for Food Processing Industries, visited France and reiterated the need to strengthen Indo-French cooperation in the agro-processing sector. She inaugurated the Indian Pavilion at the SIAL 2014 (Salon International de l’Alimentation) Food Fair. It was for her an occasion to discuss further collaboration with Stephane Le Foll, her French counterpart.

Nuclear Fusion Collaboration
International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the six-country scientific collaboration to generate nuclear fusion energy in France, will get its heart from Gujarat.
The Institute of Plasma Research (IPR) in Gandhinagar is responsible for the fabrication of the reactor's crucial parts — the cryostat and the vacuum vessel, at a L&T plant in Hazira near Surat.
IPR director Dhiraj Bora, speaking at the recently-held Gujarat Science Congress in Ahmedabad explained: “The cryostat and the vacuum vessel of the ITER Tokamak fusion reactor is the heaviest, the largest and the most central component. The reactor intends to produce 500 megawatts of power from 50 megawatts input. The plant would start first experiments by 2020.”
Bora added: “We have started fabricating it at L&T Hazira and it will be taken to ITER site in Cadarache (near Saint-Paul-lès-Durance in South France) where we have a workshop to integrate the components."
The first consignment is scheduled to be shipped out in December.
India has started participating in the project in 2005, joining the EU, China, Japan, S Korea, Russia and the United States in the mega-project.

Space Collaboration
The Indo-French cooperation in the domain of space is one of the oldest and most stable facets of the ‘strategic’ relationship, even if not the best-known. In May 1964, France's Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) embarked upon a programme of continuing cooperation in space research of mutual interest for peaceful scientific purposes.
The DAE agreed to manufacture, under license in India, the Belier and Centaure types of sounding rockets developed by the French firm Sub-Aviation. CNES eventually supplied to DAE four Centaure rockets with payloads used for vapour cloud experiments. The programme started at the end of 1964. The main protagonists were the legendary Professor Jacques Blamont of the Aeronautic Laboratory of the Centre National de la Research Scientifique and Dr P.D. Bhavsar of the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabad.
Since then, the collaboration has continued flawlessly.
On February 25, 2013, ISRO launched, from the Satish Dhawan Space Center at Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh, an Indo-French satellite called SARAL. The satellite was placed on a perfect orbit in the presence of President Pranab Mukherjee and the Chairman of CNES.
The Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle PSLV-C20 first dropped the Indo-French satellite before placing into orbit 6 other mini and micro satellites from different countries.
For the Indian launcher, PLSV with its 230 tons and 44.4 meters, it was its 23rd mission (and the 21st successful one)
Encouraged by the financial and technical performances of the Indian launcher, France asked ISRO to send a 717 kg-observation satellite, SPOT-7 into orbit. This was done by the PSLV-C23 on June 30, 2014 in presence of the recently-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In the years to come, space will continue to play a prominent role in the strategic partnership between France and India.
Incidently, Narendra Modi will visit the headquarter of the CNES while in Toulouse and a MoU on Space between France and India will be signed.

Smart Cities
According to The Hindu, Mr. Modi will get “a first look at the future of his plan for ‘100 smart cities’ during his visit to France, when he travels to the city of Toulouse.”
Will the French President Francois Hollande and Mr Modi discuss some French investment for the Indian government’s pet project? We will know very soon.
Apparently, Puducherry and Chandigarh are top contenders for development as a smart city. French Ambassador Francois Richier told The Hindu, “I am happy that we would be able to put our energies together for a smart city project, which would allow us to bring together our understanding of urban development, preserving heritage and attracting tourism for such places.”
It is easier said than done. It is indeed difficult to see Pondicherry (where I have lived for 40 years) becoming smart.
And let us hope that the airport will not be sold to China like in Toulouse.

Addressing the French PIOs
On April 10, Prime Minister Modi will address the Indian Diaspora from Paris. Interestingly, many will listen to him via videoconference from overseas French territories (‘departements’) where the majority of the French PIOs live.
A senior government official told The Telegraph: “India's consulates and Diaspora organisations will broadcast Modi's Paris speech live in the Reunion and Mayotte islands in the southwest Indian Ocean and in Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana in Latin America.”
Via the video link, Modi will have an opportunity to see them; he could eventually answer questions of the PIOs watching the mini ‘Madison Square Show’ from their far-away ‘departements’.
France has five overseas territories and spread across two continents. Together they are home for over four lakh people of Indian origin, while about one lakh French PIOs live on the French mainland.
Modi had never the opportunity to visit a country where most of the Indian Diaspora community is based overseas.

The Rafale Deal
The Rafale deal could of course become the ‘mother’ of all ‘Make in India’ projects and herald many new win-win situations for India and her partners.
In the long-delayed $20-billion deal to supply to India 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircrafts (MMRCA), 108 planes will be manufactured in India; it is probably the largest transfer of technology of the decade.
In January 2012, Dassault Aviation of France had won the right ‘for exclusive negotiations’ with the Ministry of Defence for the supply of these combat aircrafts.
The complexity of the ‘Deal’ explains the 3 long years of negotiations. Can a ‘political’ decision be reached before the arrival of Mr. Modi in Paris? It is not certain.
Recently a major obstacle was crossed when Dassault Aviation and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) reached an agreement to share the responsibility of the 108 Indian-built aircrafts. Eric Trappier, the Chairman of Dassault stated in France: "This is the first time Dassault agrees to be a co-contractor. Dassault and HAL will both take responsibility for the part they will each build on the Rafale aircraft made in India." He asserted that this arrangement was in line with the Indian government’s initial tender (request for proposals or RFP).
The final cost of the ‘Deal’ still needs to be finalized.
In the meantime, President Francois Hollande said there will be no news on the sale of Rafale to India before the arrival of Narendra Modi in Paris: "There will be no announcement on the Rafale sales before the visit of Prime Minister Modi in France and I do not want the Indian premier's visit to be put in the context of a contract. We are working on it," said the French President.

Goût de France/Good France
And now the desert!
As a prelude to the Prime Minister’s visit to France, India participated in the French “Goût de France/Good France” project to celebrate French gastronomy worldwide under the Three Star Chef Alain Ducasse’s supervision. In India, 48 restaurants participated in the culinary feat.
One can hope that after Mr. Modi’s visit to France, a “Goût de l’Inde” festival will soon be held in France. French people are quite fond of Indian Tastes.
Bon appétit Mr. Modi!

President Xi in Paris

As President Xi Jinping arrives in Paris, I wonder if he will  receive a reception like his predecessor, Hu Jintao got during Sarkozy's presidency.
Watch this video.
Can you believe it?
And don't say France is poor country!

It’s not the last word on a First Lady

My article It’s not the last word on a First Lady appeared on the Edit Page of The Pioneer today.

Here is the link...

On one side we have a ‘Kejriwalisation' of society in which the common man is king and can do whatever he wants. On the other, is the ‘People-isation' of the world where only the rich and beautiful attract attention

The Chinese are organized people, particularly, the Communist Party of China. For example, if they want to transfer a senior cadre to a less powerful position, either the person is kicked up to some grand-sounding position where he will hibernate or the Party organizes a foreign jaunt with stays in Five-Star hotels and ‘important’ meetings with foreign dignitaries. It is a sort of Golden Handshake.
Has the French President learnt from the Chinese? Probably not, he has too many problems to think about with the stagnating economy and the increasing joblessness in France. However, the fact remains that the visit of the outgoing French First Lady is reminiscent of the Golden Jaunt.
In the middle of the night, Valerie Trierweiler emerged from an Air France flight and disembarked at Chhatrapati Shivaji International in Mumbai where she was quickly whisked away in a waiting limousine. On her way to the car, she was ‘swamped’ by photographers.
British ‘people’ magazine wrote about a ‘Princess Diana-style charity trip’, though she is neither a princess, nor a First Lady anymore.
Her webpage has been removed from the official Elysee Palace website, her official Twitter account is inaccessible and her office at the Elysee is being been shut down. Her passage to India nevertheless raises serious issues.
First, does France need a First Lady? It is for the French public (the Common Man) to answer this question. Bernadette Chirac, wife of former president Jacques Chirac, during a recent Europe I radio program found it ‘ridiculous’ that the wife (or partner) of the French head of state should be considered as the ‘First Lady’. In the past, French presidents’ wives (not to speak of live-in companions) never held this exalted status, although they would regularly accompany the President during his local and foreign trips.
Let us not forget that the French Revolution promulgated a Declaration of Human Rights and the Citizen: “Men are born and remain free and equal in rights. Social distinctions may be founded only upon the general good.”
Well, that was long ago, before Kejrival era; but the guiding principles of the French Revolution and the triple mantra ‘Liberty, Equality, Fraternity’ were quite sound (that’s why they are still engraved in the Indian Constitution).
True, the days of ‘Yvonne Aunty’, as the wife of Charles de Gaulle was affectionately known, are gone; we live now in the era of breaking-news and tweeting. In the West, large sections of the media only survive on spicy information forcing the rulers to adapt their image.
The problem of Madame Trierweiler is that she has been the most unpopular resident of the Elysee Palace. Her famous tweet supporting a Socialist candidate battling against Hollande’s former partner Ségolene Royal made her loose the respect of Hollande’s four kids (with Royal) as well of the French public, not accustomed to this type of nasty outburst even during the ‘bling-bling’ Sarkozy days.
It is not that the majority of the French approve of their President’s scooter escapades to meet Julie Gayet, an actress who has been rumoured to be his ‘partner’ for a couple of years (the ‘First Lady’ was undoubtedly in the know).
The details of the story delighted a British press, (French bashing is an oft-indulged sport on the northern side of the Channel) and l’Affaire Gayet was one of the rare occasions when personal stories splashed on the front pages of even serious French newspapers. French politicians’ private life is not usually made public (President Francois Mitterrand could have a decades-long affair and even an ‘illegitimate’ daughter without anybody bothering).
Trieweiler’s jaunt brings forward a more serious question about the image of India, a country not doing enough for nutrition and poverty. The former French President’s companion came to India for a ‘charitable’ purpose, to promote an aid group ‘Action Against Hunger’. She was seen cuddling and kissing children in a pediatric ward, thus projecting a ‘poor India’ where children are starving.
My questions are: does India need her children to be saved from hunger and poverty by foreign NGOs? Does India not have enough resources to look after her own kids? How can a mediatized first class trip to Mumbai, with a stay in a Five Star hotel help solve the issue of hunger or poverty?
It clearly cannot, though it will certainly bring some publicity to the organizers. The real issues are: if only 50% of the grants allotted under different Government schemes would reach their target, poverty would certainly disappear. What about Indian funds hidden in Swiss coffers? If repatriated, it would make a huge difference.
If Mrs Trierweiler is keen to experience ‘misery’, she should visit the ‘banlieux’ (the suburbs) of Paris or other large French towns, she will meet true poverty there; she should remember that nobody in France has the means to book Versailles Palace for a wedding, like a rich Indian did a few years ago.
To make it worse, the event was organized by another French actress Charlotte Valandrey involved in promoting organ donations and transplants. To mix ‘poverty’ and organ donation in India is indeed in bad taste, especially when sponsors include the Champagne brand Moet and Chandon.
We are living in a strange world, on one side we have a ‘kerjivalisation’ of the society, in which the Common Man is King and can do whatever he feels is right and on the other is the ‘peoplelisation’ of the world where only the rich and the beautiful attract the attention of the media.
Where to grasp for fresh air in between?
It is of course wrong for the French Presidency to mix private and state affairs, but moralists have never solved any problems. In India too, there is a tendency to make fun of Hollande’s sentimental misadventures, one usually forgets that Nehru’s relation with Edwina Mountbatten cost India a large chunk of J&K State. But that is secret!
By the way, after her stay in the hospital (following the revelations of Hollande’s affair), the former ‘First Lady’ spent a few days at the presidential retreat in Versailles. Before the Revolution, the place used to be a hunting lodge, known as La Lanterne. Unfortunately, it has a strong Revolutionary connotation, the sans-culottes would sing ‘les aristocrates à la lanterne!’ (‘the aristocrats to the lamp lost’ or ‘Hang 'Em High’). Francois Hollande should think of changing the name of the retreat, the days of ‘hanging’ are no more.
In the meantime in China, Xu Zhiyong, the activist of the New Citizens Movement has been sentenced to four years behind bars for public order offences. He was found guilty of ‘gathering a crowd to disturb public order’; he had wanted ‘social justice’ and advocated ‘transparency’. This is not well seen in today’s China.
Indeed, we are living in a strange world.

Charge of the fight brigade dissipates

My article Charge of the fight brigade dissipates appeared in The Pioneer today.

Here is the link...

The sabre-rattling by the US and France over Syria has, thankfully, receded after the Presidents of the two countries discovered they had to battle a groundswell of opposition to their desire for war

“On y va? On n’y va pas?” (“Shall we go? Shall we not go?) Where? To Syria, of course! Why? To avenge the victims of an alleged chemical weapons attack that caused the deaths of hundreds of people on August 21, near Damascus in Syria.
The Americans and the French immediately declared that they had proof that President Bashar al-Assad’s forces were behind the attack. Soon, French President François Hollande became ‘François , le justicier’ (the Dispenser of Justice). “C’est pas possible” (It’s not possible), Mr al-Assad has to pay, “the chemical killing cannot go unpunished”. The new crusader was so shocked that he was ready to go to Syria alone, (provided Washington, DC, followed Paris, of course). The belligerent French President realised nonetheless that Syria was not Mali and France did not have the means to go to the battlefield without a proper mandate.
On August 30, in an interview with the daily, Le Monde, the French President confirmed his position: “The chemical massacre of Damascus cannot and must not go unpunished. Otherwise, it would risk an escalation that would trivialise the use of these weapons and threaten other countries.... I think a halt must be brought to a regime that commits the irreparable on its people”. Mr Hollande was still not keen to seek an international mandate: “If the Security Council is unable to act, a coalition can be formed. It should be as broad as possible. It will rely on the Arab League which condemned the crime. It will have the support of the Europeans. But there are few countries that have the capacity to impose a sanction by appropriate means. France is one. She is ready.” Wishful dreaming, especially after the tide turned!
At first, the French President was not too much bothered by the refusal of the British Parliament to go for Mr al-Assad: “Each country is sovereign to participate or not in operation”, he said. Then on August 31, President Barack Obama decided to seek the green light from the US Congress. To say the least, this was a let-down for Mr Hollande. What should be France’s next steps if even its good European friends were not on board to Damascus? The Time commented: “France seems isolated in its desire to ‘punish’ the Syrian regime quickly... the French head of state has become the preferred partner to the White House since the surprise of the House of Commons vote on 29 August”.
In the meantime, public opinion in France was more and more against an intervention. An analyst in Le Monde hit hard at the presidential plans: “Is schizophrenia, with dissociation in the thought-process provoking contradictory actions, looming large for François Hollande? We have a President who is a tightrope walker in the French internal scene, and a trapeze artist in the international arena; when it comes to govern France, he is careful, though sometimes not too straight, but he is martial, even brutal, when it comes to intervene in foreign land; an adept of alternative medicine in France and shock therapy abroad,” he said.
After most of the European countries and the BRICS nations showed their lack of interest for the US-French project, Mr John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, tried to convince the French public. Appearing on French TV with his French counterpart Laurent Fabius, he made an impassioned plea in fluent French; Mr Kerry spoke of Western Europe’s past and its decision to go to war against Adolf Hitler. “This is our Munich moment”, he said, adding that, “This is not the time to be silent spectators to slaughter”. The Time commented: “Kerry’s words were intended to sway people in Paris, a city which suffered under Nazi occupation and which narrowly averted widespread destruction during Hitler’s final days.” But Mr Kerry’s appeal didn’t move the French.
According to a survey of the IFOP, the serious survey institute, published by Le Figaro, almost two-thirds of French (64 per cent) were opposed to an intervention, only, 36 per cent declared themselves in favour; in a survey conducted a week earlier, 55 per cent were against.
Mr Pierre Charasse, a former French Ambassador to Pakistan, now retired in Mexico, sent a satiric letter illustrating the public mood, to Mr Hollande. “Mr President, you have taken the lead of a large global movement on behalf of the ‘Duty to Protect’ …this was the vocation of France [which] does not fail in his duty. Your exemplary determination should quickly convince your trembling European partners and the cowards in the public opinion… of the merits of a surgical military intervention in Syria”.
The former Ambassador says that “we are confident that our weapons will not fall into the hands of jihadist fighters of the Al-Nusra Front, which are part of the rebel coalition” and that Al Qaeda should get your strong messages: “It is important… to reach out to those who want our destruction.” The letter continues on the same tone: “If Americans are struggling to identify targets, French intelligence services will be pleased to provide them all the information they have, so that the operation is short and scathing.”
Mr Charasse suggests next time sending forces to Mexico where 70,000 people died (with 26,000 missing) of violence during President Felipe Calderón’s tenure (2006-2012) alone: “Logically with figures like this, the Mexican civilian population should be eligible for benefits of the ‘Duty to Protect’.”  Mr Charasse may exaggerate when he writes: “World public opinion, the unemployed in Greece, Portugal, Spain, France and elsewhere would presumably appreciate surgical strikes on the IMF, the European Central Bank, the City of London or some ‘non-cooperative’ fiscal paradise”, but it is a fact that there could be several other possible targets on this planet.
There are indeed many injustices or wrong-doings the world over, whether it is in North Korea where Kim Jong-un regularly starves his own people, in China where the Communist Party mistreats its ‘minorities’ or elsewhere. Shall these countries also be bombed? Why is only ‘small’ Syria in question?
It is a positive sign if Mr Hollande’s and Mr Obama’s plan fails. War can’t bring a sustainable solution to complicated and intricate issues such as the Middle East is witnessing. Ultimately, the international community should be strong enough to impose a ‘punishment’, but individual nations can’t decide on their own whom to punish or exempt. Let us hope that the latest Russian proposal to ‘chemically’ disarm Syria will mark a step forward.
On the positive side (though not related), India and France have begun a joint military exercise called Shakti in Bourg Saint-Maurice in the French Alps. For 11 days, the Five Kumaon Regiment will practice with the French Chassseurs Alpins (13th Alpine Battalion). Their objective is to conduct joint counter insurgency platoon operations in a mountain environment… under the United Nations Charter!

France-India: Special Relations

One French presidential visit to India follows another and although they can’t be more different in style and appearance, the essence of the Indo-French relations remains the same, based on trust and history.
Nine months ago, François Hollande became President of the French Republic. He took over from the flamboyant and hyperactive Sarkozy justifying the French press calling the new President, ‘Mr. Normal’.
It turns out that after all, Hollande is not that ‘ordinary’. As France was busy with a hot debate over gay marriages, Hollande suddenly became a chef de guerre, a Commander-in-Chief when he sent French troops to Mali.
Moreover, the new President had scored over his predecessor even before reaching Delhi. While Carla Bruni did not get the coveted status of ‘spouse’ during Sarkozy’s first visit in January 2008, Hollande's partner, Madame Valerie Trierweiler, was treated as such during Hollande’s State visit to India, being officially received at Rashtrapati Bhavan.
But the Indo-French relations go far beyond society gossip or the tight MEA protocol.
In December 2010, as I was in the bus with the French journalists returning from Hyderabad House (where Sarkozy and Dr. Manmohan had issued a Joint Statement) to the Media Center in the Maurya Center, everyone was busy with calculators to check the ‘total’ of the agreements signed. President Sarkozy’s tally reached 17 billion Euros; this was including 9 million for two Areva nuclear plants in Jaitapur, Maharashtra (not yet started), the refitting of the Mirage 2000 and other sundries.
This time, there was no big money contract ‘signed’ during Hollande’s visit, but the new President took time to speak to his interlocutors, whether they were businessmen, researchers, journalists or ordinary French citizens. Never, did I got the impression of a man in a hurry, a big difference with his predecessor.
The four agreements, signed at Hyderabad House after a meeting with the Indian Prime Minister, included initiating a Cultural Exchange Programme between India and France (exchanges between artists, architects, cultural stakeholders, students, teachers, researchers, etc.); a Letter of Intent on the Intensification of Cooperation in the Fields of Higher Education and Research; a Statement of Intent for long-term cooperation in Space; and a Joint Statement to strengthen co-operation in the railway sector.
The agreements signed are not as ‘tangible’ as those inked by Sarkozy in December 2010, but signal a close and long-term partnership in diverse fields such defence, civil nuclear energy, space, economic and scientific exchange or culture.
What emerged clearly from the presidential visit is that the relation between France and India is ‘historic’, old, stable and based on trust. This was repeatedly mentioned during his two-day stay in Delhi and Mumbai.

The Defence Sector
In the critical domain of defence, the Joint Statement affirms: “the Leaders noted that the projects for the Scorpene submarine and upgrade of the Mirage 2000 are moving forward and steps are being taken for early finalization of the SRSAM Project [between MBDA and DRDO]. Both sides noted the ongoing progress of negotiations on the MMRCA [Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft] programme [Rafales] and look forward to their conclusion.”
‘The mother of all deals’, the supply of 126 MMRCA to the IAF, for which the Rafale of Dassault Aviation has been selected, was, of course, at the heart of the visit.
Someone noted that if Dassault’s karma is good, the deal may be signed before the summer. A week earlier at the Bangalore airshow, the Indian Air Chief had confirmed that the file would be sent to the Finance Ministry sometime in April/May and if it comes back with favorable notings, the deal may be signed soon after.
The main issue seems to be a lack of ‘understanding’ between Dassault and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL). News had circulated that Dassault was keen to have a deal with Reliance Industries to build 108 Rafales in India (18 will be directly supplied from France). Defence Minister A.K. Antony had to clarify that Dassault could not decide on the quantum of work taken up by HAL in the deal, as the tender mentions that HAL will be the Indian partner of the French firm. The Anglo-Italian choppergate will certainly not incite the Government to change the rules of the game.
As per the Joint Statement, the two nations have decided “to promote an ambitious and balanced Free Trade Agreement between India and the EU; establish an annual bilateral dialogue on economic and financial issues; facilitate and support investments from French companies into India and Indian companies into France; foster people mobility between the two countries and twining of higher education institutions...”
It is rather ambitious.
President Hollande even spoke of Bollywoood; a joke which was lost to many: he asked: “who invented cinema, is it France or India?” and added that it would be finally decided during the next Cannes Festival which will be consecrated to the 100th anniversary of Indian Cinema.

Economic perspectives
An important part of the State visit was consecrated to economic cooperation. On the first day, addressing the Economic Forum held at the Taj Hotel, President Hollande gave a business perspective to the Strategic Partnership between the two nations.
Hollande pointed out that France is ranked 9th as an investor in India, “It is not enough”, he said, adding, “…India is ranked 13th as an investor in France, it is far too little.”
He regretted that the bilateral exchanges have been stagnating at 7.5 billion Euros, the objective of 12 billion (fixed by Sarkozy in 2008) not having been reached. In his own style, he asserted: “Me, I don’t want to fix objectives with figures, but what I know is that we have large domains of collaboration, great potentials and [possibility] of common development”.
He mentioned amongst others, the fields of energy, transport, audiovisual, culture and large retailing.
On the second day, the French President travelled to Mumbai where he toured the Lafarge Research and Development Centre and later addressed a number of CEOs of Indian companies. He told them: “Mumbai is India’s economic heart; I can feel it pulsating at high speed. It is India’s industrial, commercial and financial centre; the first port of your great nation. It is therefore the privileged place to speak about the future economic relations between France and India”.
The Mumbai leg of the visit was clearly to invite businessmen of both countries to develop closer contacts and eventually invest in each other’s economies. Indian CEOs were told: “More than ever we have to be partners, partners for growth.”
A day earlier, The Times of India had asked the President why France trails other European countries in trade with India? He had answered: “In France, as in India, we wish to boost growth. The development of our bilateral trade must contribute to that goal. But to state things frankly, Indian customs duties are very high in certain areas, such as the food-processing sector. The entire challenge of the Free Trade Agreement under discussion between the EU and India is to give fresh impetus to our trade both ways.”
Several times, Hollande mentioned Europe: “Our interests are linked. We, in Europe, want to create stability, trust, but also growth. You, here in India, like every important emerging nation, you should take part in the world’s growth.
He firmly added: “I can tell you, the crisis in the Euro zone is over”, but [to grow] France needs the help of the great emerging economies like India.”
A few days later, Prime Minister Cameron would speak the same language, minus mentioning Europe, of course.
While pointing out that French companies employ more than 2,40,000 skilled Indian workers, Hollande said that the trade should be balanced and mutually beneficial.
During the two days, whenever he had the occasion, the President invited Indian companies to invest in France: “You are welcome. You will find the best technologies in France, very good infrastructure, a workforce of exceptional quality”.
During a working breakfast, when senior heads of the Indian industry asked him if investing in France could be a window on Europe, he answered (in English, can you believe it!): “it is not a window, it is an open door”.
He insisted that he was not only addressing the large enterprises, but also the medium and small-scale industries.
He introduced to the audience the Special Representative for economic relations with India, Paul Hermelin, the Chairman of the large IT firm Capgemini. Hermelin’s job will be to try to bring some vitality to the relatively slow economic relations.
Hollande recalled several times that there are today 750 French companies working in India; he particularly mentioned the Banque Nationale de Paris which came 150 years ago to Mumbai.
But everything is not rosy. It is not always easy for French companies to ‘settle’ in India (that is perhaps why Dassault seems nervous). Take Snecma, a French multinational aircraft engine manufacturer based in France. For several years, Snecma worked with Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE), a lab under the DRDO for the joint development of the Kaveri engine for India's Light Combat Aircraft. The Business Standard recently reported that the Ministry of Defence “will no longer ask French aircraft engine builder Snecma to help it in resurrecting the indigenous Kaveri jet engine, which has reached a dead end in development”.
Despite the goodwill and the trust, joint or single ventures are bound to face difficulties.
It is however worth mentioning an issue which has remained rather discreet, but which is the oldest collaboration between India and France; it is the cooperation in space.
During their discussions at Hyderabad House, President Hollande and Dr Manmohan Singh mentioned: “the success of Megha-Tropiques satellite launch in October 2011 and the upcoming SARAL satellite launch. Both satellites contribute significantly to environmental and maritime survey purposes.” The SARAL satellite was successfully launched on February 25 from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh.
The maiden visit of President Hollande in Asia could be best described as more than ordinary; it reveals a meaningful and trusted partnership. It does not mean that the road will not be bumpy.

Indian Space Mission: The French Connection

My article on the Indo-French collaboration in space, published on the occasion of the State visit of President François Hollande in India is posted on Rediff.com.
During François Hollande's visit, one of the 4 agreemnents signed between India and France was a "Statement of Intent for long-term cooperation in Space".
It was inked by Yannick d’Escatha, President, Centre National d'Études Spatiales and Dr. K. Radhakrishnan, Chairman, Indian Space Research Organisation.
It says: "ISRO and CNES have jointly identified the following means to pursue further cooperation including possibilities through Missions, Payloads and Applications; exchange of young Scientists and Professionals in France and in India; conducting thematic workshops etc..."

My Rediff Article:
Indo-French cooperation in the domain of space, which began in the 1960s, is one of the oldest and most stable facets of the relationship, even if not the best-known, says Claude Arpi, as French President Francois Hollande begins his first official visit to India..
As French President Francois Hollande arrives in India on Thursday, February 14, many will remember his predecessor's first visit in January 2008.
Even serious newspapers, without the famous page 3, speculated: Would President Nicolas Sarkozy's first companion be on the presidential plane? Would she join 'Sarko' for a memorable and romantic darshan of the Taj Mahal.
After the visit, I remember writing: 'In this sense, the presidential visit was a great success; whether or not orchestrated, Sarkozy's trip got hundred-fold more publicity than Francois Mitterrand's in 1982 and 1989 or Jacques Chirac's in 1998 and 2006.' Thank you, Carla!
One could have thought that returning to India, the French president would rush to Agra with Ms Bruni, now Madame Sarkozy.
No, he first landed in Bangalore and visited the Indian Space Research Organisation's Satellite Centre. This stop-over at ISRO, before the Taj visit, always intrigued me.
I later realised that Indo-French cooperation in the domain of space is one of the oldest and most stable facets of the relationship, even if not the best-known.
In May 1964, France's Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales and India's Department of Atomic Energy 'embarked upon a programme of continuing cooperation in space research of mutual interest for peaceful scientific purposes.'
The DAE agreed to manufacture, under license in India, the Belier and Centaure types of sounding rockets developed by the French firm Sub-Aviation. CNES eventually supplied to DAE four Centaure rockets with payloads used for vapour cloud experiments. The programme started at the end of 1964.
The main protagonists were the legendary Professor Jacques Blamont of the Aeronautic Laboratory of the Centre National de la Research Scientifique and Dr P D Bhavsar of the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabad.
The CNES and DAE wanted not only to encourage exchanges of scientists and engineers between the two countries, but also to share scientific and technical information for some joint (cooperative) experiments.
It was none other than Homi Jehangir Bhabha, the celebrated Indian nuclear physicist and founding-director of the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, who signed the first agreement for India; the Department of Space had not yet been created.

Read on ...