Sunday, April 24, 2011

Fast Trains to China's Periphery

In my book, Born in Sin, I consecrated a chapter to the "New Roads" built by China in the 1950's to link different parts of its territory. I wrote:
Soon after the PLA entered Lhasa, the Chinese made plans to improve communications and built new roads on a war-footing.  The only way to consolidate and ‘unify’ the Empire was to construct a large network of roads. The work began immediately after the arrival of the first young Chinese soldiers in Lhasa. Priority was given to motorable roads: the Chamdo-Lhasa , the Qinghai-Lhasa  and the Tibet-Xinjiang Highway (later known as the Aksai Chin) in the western Tibet. The first surveys were done at the end of 1951 and construction began in 1952. 
We already discovered that the construction of one of the feeder roads leading to Nathu-la, the border pass between Sikkim and Tibet had some strange consequences. India began feeding the Chinese road workers in Tibet, sending tons of rice through this route. John Lall, posted in Gangtok, witnessed long caravans of mules leaving for Tibet.
The official report of the 1962 China War prepared by the Indian Ministry of Defense  gives a few examples showing that the construction of the road cutting across Indian soil on the Aksai Chin plateau of Ladakh was known to the Indian ministries of Defense and External Affairs long before it was made public.
Fifty years later, Beijing has extended the scope of its strategic vision. Beijing's influence now reaches  'China's periphery' as this article published by Jamestown Foundation and Asian Times shows. But it is not through roads anymore, but with railway lines. 
I have often written about this worrying development, particularly about the most strategic railway lines (at least for India), the Qinghai-Tibet line which will branch to Xinjiang during the 12th Five-Year Plan.
China's neighbours should meet to discuss a true strategic partnership to counter the rise of China.
PLA on board an Orient express  
Asian Times
Christina Lin
China's rise on the international stage has been accompanied by an increase in its military's presence. Beijing's expanding ambition is prompting calls on the country's leaders to be more proactive in protecting its national interests. These calls by Chinese analysts have raised concerns about the military's capability to mobilize troops to defend the country's vast borders.
For example, in the aftermath of the April 2010 Kyrgyzstan crisis when violent protests forced the collapse of the government, Chen Xiangyang, an associate researcher at the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), called for a "Large Periphery" strategy to safeguard China's neighboring areas.
Chen's call was echoed by senior Chinese military leaders about possibly intervening in Central Asia. The Hong Kong-based Jing Bao in a January 2010 article argued that railways - and their military significance - need to be infused into Chinese leaders' strategic lens when exporting railway technology as they enhance military power projection.
Indeed, in applying this strategic vision, on November 17, 2010, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) took the Shanghai-Nanjing express train for the first time to return to their barracks after completing security duty at the Shanghai World Expo 2010.
According to the Military Representative Office of the PLA stationed at the Shanghai Railway Bureau, the Shanghai-Nanjing express railway is an inter-city railway that can run at a maximum speed of 350 kilometers (km) per hour. Some Chinese military analysts touted this as an ideal way for the PLA to project troops and light equipment in military operations other than war (MOOTW).
China has built rail lines to Tibet, is building connections to Nepal, and is planning high-speed rails to Laos, Singapore, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Burma (Myanmar). On November 15 last year, then Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced that Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan had agreed to cooperate with China to build a China-Iran rail link from Xinjiang, passing through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and finally arriving in Iran.
The longer plan seems to connect westward into Iraq (where China has large oil and gas investments), Syria, Turkey and onto Europe. This is based on an overall United Nations-sponsored Trans-Asia Railway (TAR) network to link China to Europe, using the Middle East as a transit hub.
Although the UN engineered the TAR agreement, China has done more than any other nation to re-forge trade and transport links to reestablish the Silk Route. Negotiations are already underway with 17 countries across Eurasia. With China's high-speed trains having clocked speeds as high as 486.1 km/h (302 mph) and the PLA aggressively upgrading its long-range combat capabilities by using rail as logistical support for its air force (PLAAF) and troop projection, this new "Orient Express" across the revived Silk Road will have important military and strategic implications for US and Western interests in the region.

Militarization of the Iron Silk Road
Military requirements are part of China's rail development, and the PLA actively participates in the design and planning of China's high-speed rail. For example, Chengdu Railway Bureau has 14 military officers taking lead positions in key departments at all major stations, are tasked to coordinate railway planning, design, construction, timing of requirements and track implementation.
Shenyang Railway Bureau, which is in the strategic location of Liaoning province next to North Korea, Inner Mongolia and the Yellow Sea, has also established a regional military transportation management mechanism with the PLA. According to the Military Transportation Department of the PLA General Logistics Department (GLD), over 1,000 railway stations have been equipped with military transportation facilities, thereby establishing a complete railway support network that enhances the PLA's strategic projection capability.
GLD had cooperated with the PRC's Ministry of Railway in 2009, and fulfilled over 100 military requirements for 20 odd railways in China with the capability of military transportation. In 2009, large sums of money were invested to build military transportation facilities for a few railway stations and military platforms for loading and unloading materials.
This investment was made to meet military requirements used for activities such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) Peace Mission in 2010. GLD is actively involved through the entire process of the railway construction, varying from the programming to the completion of the railways. For example, when building the railway from Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, to Nanning, capital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, in order to meet troop maneuver requirements the Ministry of Railway had to revise a partial route and prolong 12.4 km of railways at an increased cost of 1.55 billion yuan ($232.66 million).
With China's expansionist policy and infrastructure projects toward its neighbors, some analysts are beginning to sound the alarm on the militarization of these projects.

Central, Southeast and South Asia
For example, Konstantin Syroyezhkin, in Kazakhstan's Institute of Strategic Studies, points out the rapid development of road and railroad infrastructure in Central Asia with Chinese participation may be used for future PLA troop deployments in case of a serious conflict threatening China's security or strategic interests. This concern is corroborated by the recent SCO Peace Mission 2010 military exercise, whereby China transported troops to Kazakhstan by rail.
Likewise, other countries such as Vietnam, and India, as well as the Tibet Autonomous Region share the same concern. Vietnam for one rejected China's high-speed railway technology ($32.5 billion) in favor of Japan's Shinkansen technology ($55 billion) despite its higher cost.
On June 19, 2010, Vietnam's National Assembly voted down China's high-speed rail plan. According to Chinese language magazine Yazhou Zhoukan, some Vietnamese politicians oppose adopting Chinese high speed rail technology out of the fear that China might use it to transport PLA troops to invade Vietnam, in reprise of its 1979 Sino-Vietnam War.
In the Tibet Autonomous Region, China's high altitude Qinghai-Tibet railway that opened in 2006 is being used as a supply line to enhance PLAAF mobilization capability. On August 3, 2010, PLA Daily reported that a train loaded with important air combat readiness material for the PLAAF arrived in Tibet via the railway.
China is rapidly upgrading railways and airports in Tibet, with four operational airports and a fifth one under construction. During the March 2008 Tibetan protests, the Qinghai Tibet rail enabled rapid PLA deployment. Within 48 hours, at the start of Lhasa riots, T-90/89 armored personnel carriers and T-92 wheeled infantry fighting vehicles appeared on the streets - apparently from the 149th Division of the No. 13 Group Army under the Chengdu Military Regional Command.
This was indicated by the "leopard" camouflage uniforms specifically designed for mountain warfare operation from the 149th Division. Should Sino-Indian relations ever deteriorate to the verge of military confrontation and if riots in Tibet spread, the PLA's Mountain Brigades can rapidly deploy to the region via the railway. Indeed, railway and road construction have been China's Himalayan strategy for decades - as the PLA prepared to annex Tibet, Mao Zedong advised it "to advance while building roads".

China-Iran railway

In October 2010, the transport ministers of China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran signed an agreement in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to commence China-Iran railway construction. The railway from Xinjiang, China, would pass through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, arrive in Iran and split into a southern line to the Gulf and a western line to Turkey onto Europe.
Earlier in August, China and Iran had signed a $2 billion agreement on construction of the railway network in western Iran, which will continue westward into Iraq, eventually connecting with Syria, Turkey and the Mediterranean coastal countries.

China-Turkey railway
Around the same time, in October 2010, Turkey and China elevated their relations to one of "strategic partnership", signed deals for high-speed rails in Turkey to eventually link with China, upgraded their military ties, and participated in the traditional NATO air combat exercise of Anatolian Eagle - with China replacing Israel and the United States.
China will extend $30 billion to construct 7,000 km of high-speed rail lines across Turkey, as well as upgrading rail links between Turkey and Pakistan and planning a railway around Lake Van to Iran and Pakistan. Moreover, China has invited Bulgaria to join Turkey in its Eurasian high-speed rail plan. China offered huge loans for construction in return for the use of Bulgarian rivers, seaports and airports, as transit hubs onto Western Europe.
Given the Sino-Turkish strategic partnership and anticipation of future military exercises, Chinese railways could enhance PLA military projection and presence in the Middle East and wider Black Sea region. In addition to Chinese warplanes over the Black Sea region during the October 2010 Anatolian Eagle exercise, Chinese special op forces conducted joint exercises at a Turkey commando school in early November. With reports of PLAAF refueling in Iran en route to Turkey, high-speed rail could enable logistic support and transport of combat readiness materials in the future.

Missing links - Iraq and Afghanistan

While China is constructing railways across Eurasia, Iraq and Afghanistan still present significant missing links due to the security situation and large presence of US and NATO troops.
Yet, when the United States' draw down, China may try to push for UNPKOs to take over and deploy the PLA under blue berets to protect China's energy and strategic interests. It has a $3.4 billion investment in the Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan as well as various oil and gas fields in Iraq.
China will also likely use SCO to foment regional cooperation for constructing the railways through Afghanistan to Iran, eventually linking with Iraq. China and Iran are not interested in joining western-led initiatives, such as the Transport Corridor of Europe, Caucasus, and Asia (TRACECA), which is also known as the "new Silk Road". Rather, they want to forge their own projects and not be beholden to Western interests or sanctions.

China's ambitious high-speed rail projects across Asia and the Middle East have important strategic implications. It links up poorer regions with more prosperous regions, provides jobs during an economic downturn, and allows Chinese military and security services to better project power both within and outside the country's borders. While air transport is faster, it is limited to fewer people and lighter gear, whereas rail is a crucial means for moving soldiers and heavy equipment, and is much easier to sustain logistically.
As China's economic and energy portfolio continues to increase in the Greater Middle East, there may be future conditions under which the PLA might deploy troops using high-speed rails for MOOTW to protect its strategic interests. Indeed, in January 2011 there were reports that the PLA had deployed troops to the economic zone of Rajin-Sonbong in northeast North Korea in order to "guard port facilities China has invested in".
Whether this is a telltale sign of what may happen with China's interests in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere, will still remain a mystery for the future of the PLA's Orient Express.
Christina Y Lin, PhD is research consultant for IHS Jane's and former director for China affairs in policy planning at the US Department of Defense. Her 2008 paper linking Middle East and East Asia nuclear issues, "The King from the East" published by the Korea Economic Institute, was recently referenced in The Wall Street Journal.

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