Mr Xi, what have you gained in Ladakh?

My open letter to Chairman Xi Jinping (Mr Xi, what have you gained in Ladakh?) has been published by Rediff.com on the occasion of his 68th birthday (and one year of the Galwan incident)

'Why did your generals try to grab a few square kilometres of Indian territory in Ladakh?'
'And what happened to the hard work that you and Prime Minister Modi put into the Wuhan and Mamallapuram meets?'
Claude Arpi writes a letter to Xi Jinping, China's self-styled supreme leader, who turns 68 today, June 15.

Here is the link...

Comrade Xi Jinping
General Secretary, Communist Party of China’s Central Committee
President, People’s Republic of China,
Chairman, Central Military Commission (CMC)
Beijing, China

Dear Chairman Xi,
Greetings!
You may think it is presumptuous on my part to send a letter to you, the President of one of the two most powerful nations of the world, but being born in the country which invented Liberty, Equality, Fraternity and living in the one that believes in ‘Satyamev Jayate’ (‘The Truth will prevail’), it emboldened me to send you this letter.
I hope you will not misinterpret my audacity.

I was not sure how to address you, but here in India we see you first as the CMC Chairman, particularly since your Western Theater Command generals started an unnecessary confrontation with the Indian Army in Ladakh last year.
What has China gained from it? I don’t know.
What can the PLA gain in the future? Probably nothing.
In India, it has been taken very badly as it coincided with the chaos of the pandemic due to the COVID-19 which is said to have originated in Wuhan.
Till January 2020, ‘Wuhan’ was synonymous of ‘hope’: India and China could live together as partners in the changing world. It is why Prime Minister Modi invited you in Mamalapuram, to proceed on the sacred path of peace. It is no more the case today, after your generals forced India’s armed forces to spend a winter (and now a spring and a summer) in the previously paradisiacal and serene Himalayan mountains.
I am sure you realize that you lost a friend in the process.

A Community of Shared Future for Mankind
Mr Chairman, though I regularly read your speeches and follow your visits across your country, I must admit that I don’t always understand the actions of your Party.
Take your speech on the occasion of the New Year 2021.
Xinhua reproduced your article ‘Work Together to Build a Community of Shared Future for Mankind’ which had first appeared in the Qiushi Journal (the flagship magazine of the CPC’s Central Committee).
In it, you mention that “mankind is in an era of major development as well as profound transformation and change, and is also in an era of numerous challenges and increasing risks.”
Nobody can disagree with this.
When asked how to respond to this, you proposed “to build a community with a shared future for humanity and achieve shared and win-win development.” This is good.
You even added that “actions hold the key to building such a community, while  adding that “the international community should promote partnership, security, growth, inter-civilization exchanges and the building of a sound ecosystem.”
On this, everyone will agree with you in India; several thousand years ago, a rishi spoke of Vasudhaiva Kuṭumbakam (‘the world is one family’).
The Upanishad says:

One is a relative, the other stranger,
say the small minded.
For those who live magnanimously
the entire world constitutes but a family.

What I don’t understand is that if we share the same values, why did your generals try to grab a few square kilometers of Indian territory in Ladakh? What was the point that they were trying to make? Had they grasped the essence of your speeches?
And what happened to the hard work that you and the Indian Prime Minister put into the Wuhan and Mamallipuram meets?
Are you aware that the Ladakh episode has created a huge setback for the bilateral relations and that the Indian public will not forget soon?

About the Environment: the Irresistible Law
I wanted also to mention the all-important issue of environment
On April 30, 2021, you presided over a meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee.
You had the occasion to speak of the construction of an ecological civilization; it is said to be a prominent objective for the Communist Party; you insisted on “comprehensively strengthening the construction of ecological civilization, and integrating the management of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasses and sand, and carried out a series of fundamental and pioneering activities.”
You further observed: “Ecological environmental protection and economic development are dialectically unified and mutually reinforcing. The construction of ecological civilization and the promotion of green and low-carbon circular development can not only meet the people’s growing demand for a beautiful ecological environment, but also promote the realization of higher quality, more efficiency, and more Fair, more sustainable, and safer development, and a civilized development path featuring production development, affluent life, and good ecology.”
The Chinese media emphasized your role in this: “General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important exposition on the construction of ecological civilization, with a lofty purpose, rich connotation, and profound thinking, is for us to deeply understand the significance of the construction of ecological civilization, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, and correctly handle the relationship between economic development and ecological environmental protection.”
On another occasion you ‘profoundly’ stated: “Humans and nature are the community of life, and humans must respect, conform to, and protect nature. Heaven and earth live side by side, and everything is one …When mankind makes rational use of nature and protects nature in a friendly manner, nature's rewards are often generous; when mankind develops disorderly and rudely plunders nature, nature's punishment must be ruthless. Human damage to nature will ultimately hurt mankind. This is an irresistible law."
Hundreds of millions on this planet agree with this.
It is why I can’t understand the announcement in The Global Times in December 2020 that your government was planning to build a cascade of mega hydropower plants (HPP) on the Yarlung Tsangpo: “The head of Power Construction Corp of China (POWERCHINA) suggested the planned hydropower station - which is expected to have three times as much generating capacity as the world-leading Three Gorges power station - aims to maintain water resources and domestic security.”
The information was confirmed by the administration of Metok County (of Nyingchi City); the project would be built north of the Indian border; a series of nine hydropower plants in cascade, which will threaten the life of India’s entire North-East region.
This would create unbelievable havoc not only in Pemakoe, the sacred Tibetan realm in the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, but also downstream in Arunachal Pradesh (that you call ‘Southern Tibet’), Assam and Bangladesh. You are certainly aware that it is the most seismic area of the planet.
What will you achieve by going ahead with such a project?
You will certainly earn bad will from your neighbours while creating more anger, distrust, without speaking of the risk of a confrontation with India.

The Tibetan Issue
Mr Chairman, I am sure that you remember what your father the respected Xi Zhongxun wrote in The People’s Daily on February 20, 1989 after the untimely death of the revered Tenth Panchen Lama.
Your father condoled the death of the Tibetan leader: “Buddhist Master Panchen Lobsang Trinley Lhündrub Chökyi Gyaltsen died suddenly due to a heart ailment. The Chinese Communist Party has lost a loyal friend, and I have lost a colleague and intimate friend of 40 years standing.”
In the Panchen Lama’s obituary, your father noted “Over the past 40 years, the Panchen Lama and I established a deep friendship. Prior to his trip to Tibet to dedicate a statue at Tashilunpo Monastery, he took time to bid farewell to me and presented me with a khata (ceremonial silk scarf). It was his long-established habit to bid farewell to me when he left on trips, and to have a heart-to-heart talk with me when he returned. I knew him well. He was very enthusiastic, easily excited, and when he was working he could barely control his emotions. I advised him that because there was a severe lack of oxygen in this season in Tibet, he must be careful of his health, not get short-tempered, and that he should balance work and rest. He told me that he would die happy once his project was completed. I told him that Buddha didn’t want him to go yet, nor did Marx want him to go.”
That was the last time your father met the Tenth Panchen Lama.
In his long obituary, after mentioning the difficulties that both (him and the Panchen Lama) went through during the Cultural Revolution, your father wrote: “After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Communist Party Congress in 1978, the Panchen Lama and I reunited. When old friends meet, all kinds of feelings well up. When the Panchen Lama saw me, he said uneasily: Because of my ‘70,000-Character Petition’ I got you in trouble, I’m very sorry for that. I answered: No one got anyone in trouble. We all got physically tempered, endured challenges and increased our experience. The Communist Party understands you.” At that time, we all hoped for a new China under reformist leaders like your father. Unfortunately, it has not yet happened, especially for Tibetans and the Uyghurs.
Your father had concluded: “I grieve the sudden death of the Panchen Lama, I hope that he is reincarnated. We must complete …make new contributions to a united, prosperous and civilized socialist new Tibet, and to the common prosperity of all ethnic groups.”
Today, the opposite is happening. It is difficult to understand why.
You must be realizing that the Tibetan question has been sullying the image of People's Republic for 70 years now. Why can’t you find a durable solution agreeable to all, it would be a win-win outcome.
The Dalai Lama is a sincere leader. Do you think that you can find a better interlocutor to bring about a radical change in the relations between Hans and Tibetans? I don’t think so.
I could, of course, mention several other issues, but it is better to leave at that today.

Mr Chairman, I feel that China has lost (or is losing) a golden opportunity to play a respectable place in the world, and this despite your vision of a shared future for humankind.

Yours sincerely
Claude Arpi

2024 May Witness More Natural Disasters

My article 2024 May Witness More Natural Disasters apperaed in Rediff.com

Here is the link...

'The Weather Channel argues that India faces the gravest challenge: Climate change-induced health vulnerability.'
'This is an issue often neglected, alerts Claude Arpi: "Prolonged summers, unpredictable rains, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels are the harsh realities of climate change in the country. These factors increase the frequency and severity of illnesses, pushing people into poverty, and forcing migration".'

2023 has ended. It is time for reflection and resolutions: Time to take stock of the past 12 months and to look ahead to the coming year.
There is no doubt for anybody that the world is in turmoil.
Even Xi Jinping, the guarded Chinese president, recently told some 2,300 delegates at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, 'We must be prepared for the worst-case scenarios, and be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms.'
Apart from the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza, the environment has been the first casualty of planetary happenings.
There is no doubt that the future is not rosy; a few facts: first far away and then closer to us in India, though all are interlinked as there is only one Planet Earth.
 

The Arctic
The key findings of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) annual Arctic Report Card are significant: 'Rising temperatures in the Arctic have led to unprecedented wildfires that forced communities to evacuate, a decline in sea ice extent, devastating floods, food insecurity, and a rise in sea level.'
The report mentions that the 2023 summer has been the warmest on record in the Arctic; since 1979, the Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the globe.
Year 2023 was the sixth-warmest year since 1900 in this region, crucial for the wellbeing of the planet.
The report enumerates the probable consequences such as the thawing of subsea permafrost, which is the frozen soil beneath the seabed that contains organic matter.
It could result in food insecurity.
NOAA cites Western Alaska which recorded another year of extremely low numbers of Chinook and chum salmon -- 81% and 92% below the 30-year mean, respectively.
But also raging wildfires; Canada -- where 40% of the land mass belongs to Arctic and Northern regions -- was among the worst affected by wildfires.
Rising temperatures have led to dramatic thinning of the Mendenhall Glacier, also in Alaska; as a result, over the years, the meltaway water has annually caused floods in the region.
Finally, Greenland's ice sheet is melting faster and faster. The NOAA says that the ice sheet continued to lose mass despite above-average winter snow accumulation -- between August 2022 and September 2023, it lost roughly 350 trillion pounds of mass.
Let us not forget that Greenland's ice sheet melting is the second-largest contributor to sea-level rise.

The Hindu Kush
Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which keeps a close watch on the Hindu Kush, predicted that flash floods and avalanches would grow more likely in coming years if greenhouse gases are not sharply reduced: 'Melting of glaciers will cause dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayas,' says a ICIMOD report.
It adds that glaciers in Asia's Hindu Kush Himalayas are melting at unprecedented rates and could lose up to 75 percent of their volume by century's end.
The environmental organisation warns of 'dangerous flooding and water shortages for the nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of the rivers that originate in the mountainous region.'
Wherever one looks, the future is bleak, though very few politicians the world over are ready to take the issue seriously.
They mostly worship another God called 'development', who, they believe, can bring them more votes during the next elections.

The Himalaya
Another report by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), a network of senior policy experts working with governments, agrees that mountainous regions such as the Himalaya are facing the most severe effects from the climate change.
As the COP28's climate negotiations were getting underway in Dubai, it observed: 'Scientists are calling for more attention to be paid to the region.'
Beyond 2 degree Celsius, Earth will experience 'catastrophic loss' of mountain glaciers and snow, sea ice, and permafrost, notes the report.
ICCI also warns of 'severe consequences for millions -- as well as irreversible damage to glacial areas -- if the global average temperature rise reaches two degrees Celsius ...New developments in cryosphere research have led the report's authors to declare that the Paris Agreement's goal is outdated: 1.5 C (and not 2 C) is the only option.''
The Paris Agreement is an international agreement aimed at limiting global average temperature rise to 'well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.'
Under the Agreement, countries have agreed to reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change ...they are supposed to review these commitments every five years.

In India too
It is not that the world leaders have not been warned with hard facts and scientific reports.
In 2023, Northern Sikkim experienced a severe Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF); the South Lhonak Lake, a lake located at an altitude of 17,000 feet suffered a rupture as a result of continuous rainfall.
Consequently, water gushed into the downstream regions, causing flooding in the Teesta River, in turn severely impacting Northern Sikkim.
The Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA) said that it caused the Chungthang hydro-dam in Sikkim (on Teesta river) to breach, resulting in a large number of casualties.
A scientific report published in January 2023 by Nature explained: 'Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased.
'Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. ...15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs.
'Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with about 1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake.'
The Weather Channel, an American pay television channel based in Atlanta, argues that India faces the gravest challenge: Climate change-induced health vulnerability.
This is an issue often neglected: 'Prolonged summers, unpredictable rains, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels are the harsh realities of climate change in the country. These factors increase the frequency and severity of illnesses, pushing people into poverty, and forcing migration.'
And this without even mentioning the pollution in the big cities, which will in a long term, be responsible for millions of casualties.
For this too, politicians are good to shift the blame on the neighbourhood states or individuals.

The Weather Channel quotes from a new study published in Climatic Change, using 50 indicators across 640 Indian districts, researchers mapped exposure, sensitivity to the hot weather and adaptive capacities (ACs) to gauge health vulnerability.
The authors identified 38 districts with very high vulnerability, 306 with high vulnerability, 278 with moderate vulnerability, and 18 with low vulnerability.
States with the highest number of vulnerable districts include Uttar Pradesh (37), Rajasthan (15), and Madhya Pradesh (3).
The report concluded: 'India's climate crisis demands a radical shift in development thinking. The old models cannot protect millions facing health risks like never before.'
We could multiply the examples, but it is obvious that the future of the planet is bleak.
Year 2024 will probably witness more natural disasters, calamities, tragedies, either man-made such as the Silkyara Bend-Barkot tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand which caved in, while under construction, simply because proper environmental studies had not been conducted.

One could also cite the case of Joshimath, hit by a geological phenomenon known as land subsidence, resulting in gradual sinking of the surface due to the removal of water, oil, natural gas, or mineral resources from the ground; or the devastation in Mandi-Kulu-Manali area of Himachal Pradesh due to heavy rains and wild construction for tourism.
This will continue as long as men continue to worship only one God, 'Development' and forget to bow down another God (or Godess), Mother Nature.
But it is probably too difficult to understand for politicians who have other purposes in life; however unless Mother Nature is also on our Altar, the future will remain bleak.
Nations need to be ruled by a Diarchy, with Environment and Development together giving a lead to the planet.
If the latter is privileged, there will be a backlash by the former, with the dire consequences for us, human beings.
A last prediction: The Himalayas could witness serious earthquakes in 2024. Let us hope that it does not take place.

Creating havoc In Tibet and downstream

Xi Jinping lectures
During the recently held 7th Tibet Work Forum, President Xi Jinping pointed out that “protecting the ecology of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the greatest contribution to the survival and development of the Chinese nation.”

He said: “We must firmly establish the concept that green waters and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains, adhere to the attitude of being responsible for history, people, and the world, put the construction of ecological civilization in a more prominent position, and protect the life and trees of the plateau, the thousands of waters and mountains, and the Qinghai-Tibet The plateau has been built into a national and even international ecological civilization highland.”
Environment was one of his 'Ten Musts' for Tibet.
He further observed: “It is necessary to further advance the scientific investigation work of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, reveal the mechanism of environmental changes, accurately grasp the impact of global climate change and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and study and propose systematic plans and engineering measures for protection, restoration, and governance.”
He concluded: “It is necessary to improve the compensation method, promote the integration of ecological protection and the improvement of people's livelihood, better mobilize the polarities of all parties, and form a virtuous cycle long-term mechanism for building a good ecology and sharing a good life. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of border areas and adopt special support policies to help border residents improve their production and living conditions and solve their worries.”
Good, you may think!
But what about the mega hydropower plant (HPP) which will bring havoc in the pristine region of Pemakoe, near the Indian border?
Has the Chinese engineers forgotten that the area is earthquake prone and landslides are a regular feature?

Who remember the earthquake of August 15, 1950?
Here is a text published in The Time in London describing the August 15, 1950 earthquake, which had its epicenter in Rima in Tibet, just north of the McMahon Line in the Lohit Valley:

Seismographs the world over one day last fortnight registered an earthquake so violent that the record of its convulsions ran off the paper. Because of the incomplete recordings, seismologists were unable at first to determine the quake's location, later reckoned that it must have hit hardest in southeastern Tibet and in northern Assam (a province of India). Communications with this wild mountain region, always poor, had stopped abruptly; the extent of the damage done by the quake could only be guessed at. By last week, frightening evidence of the quake's dreadful work in Assam had begun to reach the outer world. Shipping on the lower Brahmaputra River (whose source is in the Himalayas) was dislocated by a tide of tens of thousands of uprooted trees and the bodies of tigers, elephants and other wild life borne down the river from the earthquake area. The waters of the Brahmaputra, blackened with sulphur that the quake had churned up from the earth's innards, cast up millions of dead and dying fish. Up in the mountains the river had been dammed by landslides. …Thousands of people and cattle were marooned on islands in flooded areas. Brahmin priests performed propitiation ceremonies to the goddess of earth and the god of destruction. The quake had not yet spent itself. Hills were still disappearing and new hills were rising out of the laboring earth. Peasants in the area sat in numb and sleepless terror, watching tumblers half-filled with water for signs of further tremors. At the slightest trembling of the water, they would rush frantically to open ground. At week's end New Delhi heard that the death toll was close to 5,000.”
The entire area north of Arunachal Pradesh is one of the most seismic regions in the world. To build such a mega HPP in this area seems sheared madness.

The Earthquake of 2017
In November 2017, an earthquake shook the area around Mt Namcha Barwa, near the Great Bend:  as a result, the Siang suddenly became black.
An excellent article ('Muddy Siang is sign of danger ahead, wake up call for Indian authorities') described the developments on the Yarlung Tsangpo/Siang/ Brahmaputra. It was published by the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP).
It says: “The current ongoing episode of Muddy Siang River water in Arunachal Pradesh is due to landslides in the upstream Tibet, triggered by the earthquakes starting on Nov 17, 2017 or possibly earlier. This is revealed by the satellite pictures and work of two researchers, first published in Arunachal Times on Dec 21, 2017. These landslides are partly blocking the Siang flow and could lead to massive floods in the downstream Arunachal Pradesh and Assam any day.”
The article raised two important questions.
Why the Chinese officials kept quiet for weeks, if it was ‘only’ a simple earthquake and why India remained ‘unaware’, when it was not too difficult to ‘know’ the facts with remote satellite imagery.
SANDRP questioned the role of the Indian officials in this.
According to the report quoted by SANDRP, a huge amount of debris accumulated and blocked three locations, forming natural dams on the river across a 12-kilometre stretch in Tibet. It was cause by a 6.4 (or 6.9) earthquake in the Great Bend region. It darkened the waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo.

The Earthquake
It was already known by the end of November 2017 that the area near the Great Bend had been affected by an earthquake; Xinhua quoting the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) reported that no casualty had occurred “after a 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Nyingchi, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region at 6:34 a.m. on November 18.”
The agency added that the quake caused "power failures and building damages in a number of villages in [around] the epicenter in Nyingchi City."
The epicenter was located at 29.75 degrees north latitude and 95.02 degrees east longitude; it struck at a depth of about 10 km and several minor aftershocks were felt.
Xinhua quoted Pasang Tsering, Communist Party chief in Tashigang Village of Lunang Township, saying that he could not stand still in his house when the quake struck: “Six houses in his village had damages from the jolt.”
Incidentally, Lunang (or Lulang), the newest tourist attraction in Tibet was built with a total investment of more than 3 billion yuan (436 million U.S. dollars): “Here tourists can enjoy splendid natural scenery, various traditions and high-level infrastructure,” wrote Xinhua.
According to the Chinese press agency: “The small town is 3,300 meters above the sea level and is surrounded by Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, Mt Namcha Barwa and many other scenic spots. It is known as the most beautiful town in Nyingchi.”
The state of the 'new' town was not made public.
Weeks later, Hua Chunying, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, admitted that China was ready to “maintain communication with India over the transboundary rivers in the wake of lakes and dams being formed on the Yarlung Tsangpo due to earthquakes in Tibet”.
Ms Hua stated: “According to verification by the relevant authorities, I can tell you that this lake is to the east section of the China-India boundary. It is caused by natural factors, it is not man-made." She added: “I noticed that Indian professional authorities have made an analysis and clarification on this. We hope the Indian media will not make a groundless speculation on this and the Chinese side will, through the existing channels, maintain communication with the Indian side on the cross-border rivers.”
The fact remains that the area is highly earthquake-prone and that China shares information with India only when it is compelled to.

The 2018 Landslides
Construction of the proposed railway between Sichuan and Tibet and a mega HPP could lead to similar disasters; ultimately, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam will have to bear the brunt of the destruction.
Happenings on the Tibetan plateau have serious implications for India; this is the case of the devastating landslide on the Yarlung Tsangpo in 2018.
On October 17, 2018, China Xinhua News twitted: “A barrier lake has formed after a landslide hit the Yarlung Tsangpo River in SW China's Tibet on Wednesday morning. The safe evacuation of local residents is being carried out.”
On October 11, Xinhua had reported that a ‘barrier lake’ had formed on a section of another river, the Upper Yangtze (Jinsha River in Chinese); the mishap was due a landslide which had taken place in Jomda county of Chamdo prefecture in the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Though no casualties were reported, the amount of water in the new lake reached about 100 million cubic metres in a short time.
Ten of thousands of people were evacuated by precaution.
The Chinese media affirmed: “the scale of the landslide is vast, clogging the main waterway of the Jinsha River, with several bridges, fields and villages affected."
Six days later, Xinhua mentioned the formation of a new lake on the Yarlung Tsangpo, not far from the Great Bend of the river due to another landslide: “A barrier lake has formed after a landslide struck a section of the Brahmaputra Valley near Pe Village of Mainling County,” said The Telegraph.
Pe (or Pai) is the departure point of the diversion for the mega HPP (and the new highway to Metok), where the landslide has taken place in 2018.
Just a coincidence?
This time, China’s water resources ministry immediately informed Delhi of the seriousness of the situation; emergency bells rang downstream, particularly in the Upper Siang district.
All this raised serious worries in India.
Xinhua commented that China (read Tibet) was one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. “…But its overall capability to respond to such extreme conditions is still relatively weak, and more should be done.”
An article in The Wall Street Journal indicated that a serious debate had been raging in the Middle Kingdom and Beijing was trying “to kick its habit of using big-ticket infrastructure spending to fuel the economy, a turning point from a growth model...”
However today, it is the Emperor who decides of everything.
Apart from the environmental problem in these ecologically-fragile areas, the other issue is: who will pay the cost of these pharaonic schemes?
And one of the questions never mentioned in the Chinese press is: can Beijing afford these mega projects today?
The 2018 landslides are an example of what could (will) happen if a mega HHP is constructed in this fragile zone, however a more ‘ecological’ approach is bound to drastically increase the cost of the project.
The cost factor can’t be neglected.
For India downstream, the 2017 and 2018 happenings on the Yarlung Tsangpo (and the Yangtze) are truly worrisome.
Is Xi ready to practice what he preaches (particularly at the 7th Tibet Work Forum? Future will tell us.

Bhutan's Gross National Happiness depends on 'finding ways to grow economically in a carbon neutral way'

My article Bhutan's Gross National Happiness depends on 'finding ways to grow economically in a carbon neutral way appeared in today's edition of Mail Today

Here is the link...

As the New Year approaches, happiness is on everyone’s mind.
Though its definition differs, a tiny (in size) nation has made the concept of ‘global happiness’ known worldwide: it is Bhutan.
The idea of a Gross National Happiness (GNH) was coined in 1972 by Bhutan's fourth King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck.
Bhutan’s culture is based on deeper values, instead of a material development it aims at a constant increase in the gross domestic product
Bhutan’s culture is based on deeper values, instead of a material development it aims at a constant increase in the gross domestic product
It was a stroke of genius, from a monarch who saw the Future.
Since then, the Land of Dragon continued to pledge to have an economy preserving Bhutan’s culture based on deeper values, instead of a material development aiming at a constant increase in the gross domestic product.
Bhutan might not be a world decider like the US, China or India, but the Himalayan nation was often cited during the recently-held COP21 ‘climate’ negotiations in Paris.

Walk the talk
In an oped in Kuensel, Bhutan’s national newspaper, Annette Dixon, Vice President of the World Bank for South Asia wrote: “Bhutan declared in 2009 that it would remain carbon neutral and has made the most ambitious pledges on cutting emissions at COP21.”
The WB official however adds: “But staying neutral as emissions from industry and transport rapidly rise will not be easy. It will require aggressively finding ways to grow economically in a carbon neutral or reduced way.”
Bhutan defined the four pillars of ‘Happiness’ as sustainable development, preservation and promotion of cultural values, conservation of the natural environment, and establishment of good governance.
GNH is officially part of Bhutan's five-year planning process, which guides the economic development of the nation.
Easier planned than done!

Though very few took note of the ‘happiness idea’ when it was first expounded, four decades later, things have changed.
Today, as the world starts looking back at the mess it has created, many believe that “after all, this GNH was perhaps not so naïve.”
In 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President commissioned a study of alternative gauges of economic welfare, while in 2010, the UK began measuring the ‘National Well-Being’.
The UN has already released its third World Happiness Report.
At the end of the Paris Conference, the European Union (EU) acknowledged Bhutan’s ‘extraordinary ambition’ in addressing climate change by signing a ‘declaration’, which recognizes “Bhutan’s unique situation as a land-locked and least developed country with a fragile mountainous environment.”
It recognises the special requirements necessary to cater for the nation’s sustainable development needs.
Today Bhutan is often cited as an example to follow.

The philosophy of Kingdom of the Dragon has indeed gone a long way since 1972. Yeshey Dorji, a renowned Bhutanese nature photographer recently wrote on his blog: “Bhutan is just too insignificant - considered from any point of view: we simply cannot make a difference, neither economically, technologically - in any way. But despite that…Bhutan does arouse some interest among world leaders and thinkers and policy makers.”
Yeshey is however not sure of the Future: “GNH is unlikely to work until we completely dismantle the present economic order - how and what we produce, how we consume, how we transport, how we market.”

Money matters
The world today being a Global Village, can a nation remain secluded and just play according to its own rules; in the case of Bhutan, without reference to its giant neighbours and their ‘development’ policies?
At the time of the Paris’ talks, The Wall Street Journal warned that while Bhutan “uses a unique barometer to measure economic progress, the message of the 2015 Gross National Happiness Index is a troubling one: Money isn’t buying enough contentment.”
With Bhutan becoming wealthier, will Happiness be consigned to the backstage for the sake of greater ‘wealth’?
The WSJ argued: “Never mind that Bhutan’s economy is growing at a healthy annual rate of nearly seven per cent. Officials here worry that modern life tends to throw things off-balance.”

Right models
The tourism industry is in part responsible for fuelling the mad race for ‘wealth’; though based on a ‘high value, low impact’ policy, ‘profit’ remains the main engine of growth.
Many in Bhutan are conscious that the nation is facing a hard choice; Kuensel suggests: “While Bhutan’s economy continues to grow and mature, different forms of economic system must be explored, studied and debated.”
While the capitalist economic system works on ‘profit’, it creates jobs and brings necessary tax revenues, does it automatically create happiness?
Observers feel that ‘finding the right kind of business model for Bhutan is worth exploring’, if the nation wants to keeps ‘happiness’ as its USP.

Another issue is the dams.
Take the Punatsangchhu-I Hydroelectric Project (PHPA I), the first stage of an initiative by the Royal Government of Bhutan and India in May 2008 to generate 10,000 MW of hydro electricity by 2020.
Apart from the fact that the hydropower project faces serious environmental glitches, most nature lovers believe that Bhutan’s rivers will be ‘killed’ by the projects.
Further, will the dams’ revenues bring more contentment to Bhutan? Only the future will tell us.
According to a survey conducted by the Royal Society for Protection of Nature, Bhutan has the highest population of the White-bellied Herons in the world.
If birds are happy, it is a positive sign, but Bhutan is nevertheless at a crossroad and unhappiness in the Dragon Kingdom would be a great loss for humanity.

Asia’s challenge

Srinagar (Garhwal) HEP

My article Asia’s challenge appeared in The Statesman today.

Here is the link...

There is no doubt that the most serious issue that Asia will have to face during the coming decades is the climatic change  and  the health  of the Tibetan glaciers and rivers which feed nearly 2 billion human beings says Claude Arpi

During a visit to Srinagar, Garhwal, in March this year, I was told that a total of 95 hydropower projects were being built or planned on different rivers converging in the Alaknanda and Bhagirathi basin of Uttarakhand.  Why so many dams, I asked? If the Centre does not go for dams and generate power, then Rs 10,000-15,000 crore would have to be annually released by Delhi as Central assistance, I was told. The Centre wants power and the State, hard cash; dams bring a win-win situation, they say. Projects currently underway were supposed to increase the hydropower capacity of the State to 12,235 MW.
Nobody really cared if environmentalists like former IIT professor, Dr GD Agrawal or before him Sunderlal Bahuguna were opposing the wild contagion of concrete infrastructures; they were just labeled as being anti-development by the authorities; ‘development’ being the new God worshiped in the Himalayas.
But the gods are neither crazy nor helpless. They showed it on June 16 and the following days, when torrential rains poured from the sky; the result: several thousands of humans left dead or missing, hundreds of roads cut, villages erased, hydropower plants destroyed, a State totally ruined.
It was predictable and had even been predicted. In 2009, after studying the hydro-electric projects (HEP) in Uttarakhand, a state audit of the Comptroller and Auditor-General admitted that, though most of the projects faced problems associated with land acquisition, forest clearances and enhancement in project capacities “...more grave is the total neglect of environmental concerns, the cumulative impact of which may prove devastating for the natural resources of the State.”
The auditors also remarked: “Negligence of environmental concerns was obvious as the muck generated from excavation and construction activities, was being openly dumped into the rivers contributing to increase in the turbidity of water.”
One visible consequence was seen in Vishnuprayag where the deluge coming down from the upper reaches of Alaknanda completely buried the 400 MWs hydropower plant.
Tragically, the same situation is bound to happen, probably on a larger scale, in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
What depressed me the most is that many swamis or ‘holy men’ were quite happy with the ‘development’ of their Himalayan environment; their ashrams were getting wealthier and they were getting more followers (they probably thought that it was a win-win situation!)
I was in this frame of mind when I came across a refreshing book written by the 17th Karmapa, Ogyen Trinley Dorje, entitled The Heart Is Noble: Changing the World from the Inside Out. It is obvious that the Karmapa has studied our modern world ‘inside out’. The background of the book is a month-long dialogue between the Lama (called by everyone ‘His Holiness’) and a group of American university students who visited him in May 2011 at the Gyuto Ramoche Monastery in Sidhbari near Dharamsala. It is there that the 29-year old Lama has found a ‘temporary’ refuge, surrounded by the majestic Dhauladhar range as a backdrop.
Though the Karmapa often tells the students (his ‘friends’) that he does not give them a ‘religious’ teaching, the Buddhist themes of ‘temporariness’, ‘interdependence’ or ‘compassion’ pervade the book.
The 12 chapters deal with subjects like ‘Our Shared Ground’; ‘A Meaningful Life: Anything Is Possible’, ‘Healthy Relationships: Orienting Ourselves toward Others’; ‘Gender Identities: It’s All in the Mind’ or ‘Consumerism or Greed: Contentment Is the Best Wealth’. One chapter elaborates on Karmapa’s favorite topic, “Environmental Protection: Cultivating New Feelings for the Earth”.
The young Lama often describes himself as an environmental activist. Born to a nomad family in Kham province of Eastern Tibet, he says that during his youth he experienced a rustic lifestyle which is unfortunately fast disappearing.
The Karmapa asks his visitors to try to realize their intimate dependence with the whole planet. He also sees a close affinity between the concept of ecology and the Buddhist views of interdependence.
His young US friends are warned not to confuse economic success with personal happiness: “Just because we have a market economy, does not mean we need to have a market society.”
In his book, he explains: “In recent years, we have gained a great deal of information about the impact of our actions on the environment. We human beings have tremendous intelligence, but it is clear that there remains a big gap between the brain and the heart. We seem to find it easy to process new information and generate new ideas, yet much harder to produce new feelings. …What we now need to go along with all our powerful new ideas about the environment are powerful new feelings.”
According to him, it is here that our noble heart should intervene. The message of the Karmapa is simple and ‘secular’ -
Page after page, one finds a mature and deep thinker; it is rather rare these days. There is a great lightness in his thought-process, which he is able to share with his young interlocutors.
Karmapa would certain support the Bhutanese ‘Gross National Happiness’ which seems now to have been rejected by the new government in Thimphu. Let us hope that the Land of the Dragon will not take Uttarakhand’s path. It would be such a pity!

The Karmapa likes to say: “If I have the opportunity, I would most like to restore the natural environment in the Himalayas and Tibet, and to especially protect the forests, the water and wildlife of this region.” His language always remains simple. He encourages his interlocutors by telling them that we, humans are far more powerful than we usually believe: “We individuals can become part of the solution, when we recognize this power and start to use it, together.”
For him, the starting point is ‘inter-dependence with others and the planet’; he believes that if each human being can increase his or her own love and compassion towards others, the planet will face much less conflicts.
In conclusion, he outlines what he calls ‘a kind of humanist spirituality’.
Interestingly, he was the first leader to issue a statement after Bodh Gaya’s recent tragic events. Though he was deeply saddened by the senseless violence perpetrated at the Mahabodhi temple, he appealed for compassion and understanding: “I am convinced that, as Buddhists, in responding to this situation, the best homage we can pay to Lord Buddha is to uphold his teachings on love and ahimsa (non-violence).”
There is no doubt that the most serious issue that Asia will  have  to  face  during  the  coming  decades  is  the  climatic change and the health of the Tibetan glaciers and rivers  which  feed  nearly  2  billion  human  beings.  Asia definitely needs more young, dedicated, intelligent, modern and  open-minded  leaders  like  Karmapa,  if it  wants  to avoid a doomed future.

inside each of us there is a noble heart. He tells the youth: “This heart is the source of our finest aspirations for ourselves and for the world. It fills us with the courage to act on our aspirations. Our nobility may be obscured at times, covered over with small thoughts or blocked by confused and confusing emotions. But a noble heart lies intact within each of us nonetheless, ready to open and be offered to the world.  …When we clear away all that blocks it, this heart can change the world.”

Life Extraordinaire

My review of the latest book of the 17th Karmapa appeared in The Pioneer under the title Life Extraordinaire


The book shows that the 17th Karmapa, Ogyen Trinley Dorje, has something to say, something important for the future of humanity, writes Claude Arpi

Do you still remember the Karmapa’s Great Escape?
On January 5, 2000, in the midst of the winter, a 15-year old monk arrived in Dharamsala, Himachal Pradesh after a Bollywood-type escape across the highest Himalayan passes; the 17th Karmapa, Ogyen Trinley Dorje, holder of a 900-year lineage drove straight to the Palace of the Dalai Lama who immediately received the red-face boy, offering him protection.
On his way to India, Ogyen Trinley may have dreamt that, once he would reach his destination, his life would be simple; he would meet his religious teachers and soon after return to his predecessor's seat, in Rumtek, Sikkim. It was not to be. The problem was not that simple, as his arrival in the Indian hill station got immediately entangled with the Sino-Indian relations.
When he had left his monastery of Tsurphu in Central Tibet a week earlier, he probably did not foresee these all difficulties.
Perhaps because the story was so unbelievable, the Indian government had some hesitation to grant him refugee status. Some even believed that he had been 'planted' by the Chinese to create confusion in Sikkim, the traditional seat of the Karmapa lineage.
Having closely followed the story for the start, when I opened the Karmapa’s new book (The Heart Is Noble: Changing the World from the Inside Out), the past obviously came to my mind; but as I begun to go through the first pages of this delightful book, I realized that the young monk has walked a long journey since 2000.
Pages after pages, one faces a mature and deep thinking, which it is rather rare these days. The difficulties and hurdles that the young lama had to go through in his personal life seem to have left no scar on his psyche; on the contrary, he has been able to ‘digest’ the toughest experiences and analyze them ‘inside out’; bringing a lightness in his thought-process which he is able to share this with his interlocutors.
The background of the book is a month-long dialogue between the Lama (called by everyone around him, His Holiness) and a group of American university students who visited him in May 2011 at the Gyuto Ramoche Monastery in Sidhbari near Dharamsala. It is there that the 29-year old Lama found a ‘temporary’ refuge, surrounded by relatively tight security, with the majestic Dhauladhar range as a background.
Though the Karmapa often tells the students (his ‘friends’) that he does not give them a ‘religious’ teaching, the Buddhist themes of ‘temporariness’ and ‘interdependence’ pervades through the book.
The message of the Karmapa is simple and ‘secular’: inside each of us there is a noble heart. He tells the students: “This heart is the source of our finest aspirations for ourselves and for the world. It fills us with the courage to act on our aspirations. Our nobility may be obscured at times, covered over with small thoughts or blocked by confused and confusing emotions. But a noble heart lies intact within each of us nonetheless, ready to open and be offered to the world.  …When we clear away all that blocks it, this heart can change the world.”
The 12 chapters deal with subject like ‘Our Shared Ground’; ‘A Meaningful Life: Anything Is Possible’, ‘Healthy Relationships: Orienting Ourselves toward Others’; ‘Gender Identities: It’s All in the Mind’ or ‘Consumerism and Greed: Contentment Is the Best Wealth’.
The Karmapa has deeply studied our modern world ‘inside out’.
His favorite topic is probably “Environmental Protection: Cultivating New Feelings for the Earth”.
He warns his friends not to confuse economic success with personal happiness: “Just because we have a market economy does not mean we need to have a market society.”
I think that the Karmapa would have voted for the Bhutanese ‘Gross National Happiness’ which seems to now been rejected by the new government in Thimbu. Such a pity!
We have seen recently the outcome of 'development' in Uttarakhand. But are the politicians read to listen the Karmapa’s message? He says: "I want it to have a long term visible impact and for it to be practical. If I have the opportunity, I would most like to restore the natural environment in the Himalayas and Tibet, and to especially protect the forests, the water and wildlife of this region.”
His language always remains simple. The first day, he told the US students: “My formal study has been in Buddhist philosophy and religion, so l may use some Buddhist terms on occasion. …Please do not take my words to be an authoritative representation of what the Buddhist texts say.”
His always encourages his interlocutors by telling them that we are all far more powerful than we usually believe: "We individuals can become part of the solution when we recognize this power and start to use it, together.”
Being the 17th of a long chain of reincarnations and the spiritual head of one of the major schools of Tibetan Buddhism, he admits that, as such, he has certain responsibilities, ‘because I received the name and position of Karmapa’, but he is quick to add “we all have responsibilities based on what we receive from the world.” But he never tries to promote his particular school; he sees the needs of a global society for the 21st century.
The starting point is the interdependence with others and the planet and he believes that if our own love and compassion increase, there will be certainly less conflict around.
In conclusion, he says that he tried to outline what he called ‘a kind of humanist spirituality’. Though he sometimes uses Buddhist concept (like temporariness or compassion), he believes that to look at the world and to live life that do not require any particular religious affiliation; his words and actions are only “a logical consequence of the interdependence that binds us to others and to the planet.”
I wish that one aspect of the Karmapa that I had the opportunity to experience myself, when I interviewed him a couple of years ago, had come more prominently: it is his great sense of humour.
Probably due to the format of the transcribed talks, his charming smile can be seen only to the cover of the book.
Through my interview, I had discovered a remarkable calm young man, deeply interested in Indian culture, in art and of course the environment of the Himalayas; he was able to see the deeper meaning of the controversies that have surrounded him since he fled from Tibet.
When I mentioned to him, that during a public function in Dharamsala, he had made everyone laugh and asked him what place he gave to humour in life, he answered: “There was nothing much left for me to say. I had to make some jokes (laughing).”
He later rectified: “No, no, no. But humour is important in life. To be too serious in life is not good; it can make life seem miserable.”
The book shows that the Karmapa has something to say; something deep and important for the future of humanity.
It should be compulsory reading for politicians and babus, though common men may benefit more immediately as for him, there is no fixed starting point to begin to accomplish what one aspires to achieve: “Changing the world for the good can start from right where you are, right now. …When you are dreaming of what is possible for your life, you should know that anything is possible. …Your life is subject to infinite revision.”

The Heart Is Noble: Changing the World from the Inside Out
by The Karmapa, Ogyen Trinley Dorje
Hardcover: 216 pages
Publisher: Shambhala (February 19, 2013)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1611800013
ISBN-13: 978-1611800012

Mining Sacred Places

On March 29, China’s State media reported that 83 miners had presumably died following a major landslide at the site of a gold mine in Gyama Valley, near the Tibetan capital, Lhasa. A few days later, 66 miners were confirmed dead and 17 were declared missing despite massive rescue efforts.
Reports from Tibet further stated that the miners (only two of them were Tibetans) were asleep in their tents when the tragedy occurred. They were buried by a 3-kilometre wide and 30 metres deep mass of rocks and debris.
An ignorant former French PM, Jean-Pierre Rafarin, a great friend of Communist China, recently told a Chinese journalist at the Boao Forum: “I have never been to Tibet. It is a region with high altitude.” But there is more than the altitude; in many ways, Tibet is a special place.
Beijing based writer and dissident Tsering Woeser, brings out another dimension of the tragedy in her blog: “I mention Songtsen Gampo often, always in the hope that those greedy cadres and companies would show some mercy.”
The Gyama Valley is one of the most sacred places in Tibet; it is the birth place of Songtsen Gompo, the founder of the Tibetan empire in the 7th century, the largest empire in Asia at that time. Till recently, several historical places such as the Gyelpo Khangkar, containing an image of the King and his two Chinese and Nepalese queens, were by visited large crowds of Tibetans pilgrims.
Woeser reminds her countrymen: “In Han Chinese culture, the birthplace of all former dynasties’ emperors is considered to be the treasured place of ‘fengshui’, referred to as ‘dragon’s pulse’. Gyama, with its many sacred and beautiful places, is where the ‘dragon’s pulse’ exists in Tibet and it should never have to endure such disemboweling hardship as it does today.”
Unfortunately, Chinese cadres are unaware of the ‘Tibetan pulse’. For Woeser, who visited the place in 2005, the landslide is: “not a natural, but a man-made disaster. Locals say loud and clear how crazy the mining has become there.” The mining project just shows “the lack of empathy by Chinese government towards Tibetan Culture and sentiment”, she bitterly complained.
Ironically, Xinhua had reported in June 2012: “A multi-metal mine in the birthplace of Tibetan King Songtsen Gampo has the potential to be among the world's 50 biggest mines of its kind by deposits and may generate an annual product value of 712 million US $ by the end of 2015.”
Jiang Liangyou, Party Secretary of the mine’s owner, Tibet Huatailong Mining Development (under the state-owned National Gold Group Corporation or CNGG), had then promised: “The prospecting results are subject to independent third-party verification overseas”.
It appears now that the foreign advices were not followed, triggering the tragedy.
As late as June 2012, Jiang had boasted: "Phenomenal changes will be brought to Tibet's economic and social development, because, after the expansion, Gyama Mine may generate tax revenue equivalent to one-sixth of the current fiscal revenue of the government of Tibet Autonomous Region.”
Xinhua however admitted: “Before the mining area was taken over by Huatailong in late 2009, a dozen private miners were caught up in a rat race for the rich ore supplies, ignoring their responsibilities to the local community and environment.”
Sun Zhaoxue, general manager of CNGG had publicly announced that Huatailong would honor its social responsibility and “bring local residents long-lasting benefits through environmental protection and community-building efforts.”
That was last year. He had then affirmed: “The answer, in our mind, is to build Jiama into a large, environmentally-friendly mine equipped with leading technologies.”
Ironically, the mine has been projected as the ‘Gyama Model’ by the Ministry of Land and Resources in Beijing, and many Chinese mine managers regularly visited the place ‘to learn from Huatailong's experiences’.
Nine months ago, another manager Teng proudly asserted:"The golden rule we have been following here is to always be responsibility-aware and harmony-aware.”
Today, a report prepared by the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) based in Dharamsala, Himachal Pradesh, believes that China's large-scale exploitation of mineral resources in Tibet caused the recent disaster.
Tenzin Norbu, the Head of the CTA’s Environment Desk says: "Tibet's rich mineral deposits have become a resource curse for the local residents and ecosystem. Since the late '60s, these mineral deposits have been exploited in various scales, mostly under poor environmental norms and regulations. …The minerals extracted, copper, chromium, gold, lead, iron and zinc are the minerals of greatest interest to Chinese and other foreign miners operating in Tibet."
Interestingly, the President Xi Jinping (then visiting Africa), Premier Li Keqiang as well as the entire Standing Committee of the Politburo personally expressed their grief over the tragedy and “gave important instructions for the rescue work”. The Party seems shaken by the incident; it seems to have become a prestige issue for Beijing. But will the new leadership be able to take the ‘yak’s pulse’? One can doubt in view of the precedents in Tibet.
One collateral: when the China National Gold Group Corporation acquired the rights from the previous owners in 2009, one of them was Rapid Results Investment based in …the British Virgin Island! Some 590 million US $ was paid to this company. The news came soon after the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) began leaking the details of 2 million emails and other documents on the famous fiscal paradises. Just a coincidence!

Guidelines for sustainable investment

This report in The Times of India states that the Tawang Administration has written to the Dalai Lama to request him to intervene and 'suppress the popular voice' against the construction of some dams.
Rather strange!
The District Administration is probably not aware of the Guidelines for Development and Sustainable Investment issued by the Dalai Lama's government a few years ago.
If Tawang wants guidance from Dharamsala, 'Tibet' can just be replaced by 'Tawang' and 'Tibetans' by 'Monpas'.
Here are the Guidelines issued by the Central Tibetan Administration:

BASIC PRINCIPLES:

• To enhance the capabilities of Tibetans to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of the future.
• To transform the whole of Tibet into a zone of peace with a democratic society.
• To create a future economic system based on a non-violent and equitable society.
• To restore and conserve Tibet’s extensive, fragile resource base and the environment.
• To reverse the process of marginalisation of Tibetans in Tibet and empower Tibetans to take control of developing Tibet [may not be applicable in the case of Tawang].
• To support not only the economic well-being of Tibetans, but also their social, cultural, spiritual and environmental welfare.

AID AND INVESTMENT GUIDELINES

• All development projects should be implemented only after conducting a thorough need-assessment of the Tibetan people through field visits and interviews.
• All development initiatives should be preceded by cultural, social and environmental impact assessments.
• Development projects should foster self-sufficiency and self-reliance of Tibetans.
• Projects should promote accountability of the development agencies to the Tibetan people and active participation of Tibetans in all project stages.
• Projects should respect Tibetan culture, traditions and the vast Tibetan knowledge and wisdom about their landscape and survival techniques.
• Agencies should have a local presence at all stages of the project to ensure that the intended target group benefits.
• Tibetan should be used as the working language of projects. It will be important for the development project staff to know the Tibetan language.

Peoples Party of Arunachal asks Tawang district administration not to suppress anti-dam stir
Times of India
April 11, 2012,
ITANAGAR: The Peoples Party of Arunachal (PPA) has appealed to the Tawang district administration not to suppress the popular voice and democratic movement of the people belonging to the border district against mega dams. The district administration recently wrote a letter to the Dalai Lama asking him to intervene and call on the people not to participate in anti-dam movements.
"Writing a letter for the intervention of the Dalai Lama to stop the anti-dam movement is unethical," the PPA said in a statement on Tuesday. "The Dalai Lama has no role in taking decision on how to use the natural resources of Arunachal Pradesh. People of Tawang should be allowed to decide if mega dams should be built or their land," the party observed.
The district administration's warning that they would "resort to preventive actions to contain the alarming situation" itself is undemocratic, the communique said, adding that people should be allowed to raise issues if their movements are democratic and does not violate the law.
Meanwhile, Bongleng Village Development Society (BVDS) supported the movement of Save Mon Committee (SMC) opposing coming up of power projects in Tawang. BVDS said that construction of so many projects would convert the religious township into a house of tunnel. It urged the authority concerned to treat the voices of people and take up alternatives for the betterment of the local people instead of destroying the landscape and flora and fauna by proposing so many projects.

The end of a world?

In the fall of 2012, China will witness a major leadership change during the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The present top leaders including President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and Chairman of the National People’s Congress Wu Bangguo are to retire. The Standing Committee of the Politburo will have 7 new faces (the present strength is 9). The process is said the most opaque in the world (it is clearer in North Korea where the Son always succeeds a Dear Leader). Will these tremendous solar explosion help to bring some ‘glasnost’ (transparency) in the proceedings in the Great Hall of People? End of 2012 is also said to be the end of a cycle in the Maya Calendar.Tremendous changes were expected by the Mesoamericans around that time. We have one and a half year to wait the results of all this.


Abrupt change 2012: problems with the Sun
by Ervin Laszlo on February 16, 2010
Physical changes in the intensity of solar radiation conspire with human impacts to stress the world system. Astronomers have noted that since the 1940s, and particularly since 2003, the Sun has become remarkably turbulent, with the exception of the last year or so. Solar activity is predicted to peak around 2012, creating storms of intensity unprecedented since the 1859 “Carrington event,” when a large solar flare accompanied by a coronal mass ejection flung billions of tons of solar plasma into the Earth’s magnetosphere.
Solar storms, capable of traveling at speeds up to 5 million miles per hour, could knock-out virtually every major technological infrastructure on the planet: transportation, security and emergency response systems, electricity grids, finance, telecommunications, including satellite and other wireless networks, and even household electronic equipment.
The solar storm of 1859 was the most powerful event of its kind in recorded history. On the 1st of September of that year the Sun expelled huge quantities of high-energy protons in a large flare that traveled directly toward the Earth, taking eighteen hours instead of the usual three or four days to reach our planet. It disrupted telegraph systems all over Europe and North America. Fires erupted in telegraph stations due to power surges in the wires; and the northern lights (aurorae borealis) were seen as far south as Florida.
The next solar storm on record, in March of 1989, melted the transformers of the HydroQuebec Power Grid, causing a nine-hour blackout that affected six million people in Canada. And the solar storms that reached the Earth between October 19th and November 7th 2003 disrupted satellites and global communications, air travel, navigation systems, and power grids all over the world. It also affected systems on the International Space Station.
The solar maximum forecast for 2012 could do greater harm than any before, since human life has become much more dependent on the global energy grid. According to “Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Economic and Societal Impacts,” a National Research Council report issued in the spring of 2009 by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, another Carrington event would induce ground currents that knock out 300 key transformers within 90 seconds and cut off power for more than 130 million people in the U.S. alone.  Its cost could be as high as 2 trillion dollars, and recovery time would be four to ten years.  An even worse impact would be felt in China, where the electrical grid is more vulnerable than in the West.
A major solar storm would cause the failure of electric power in most parts of the world. The above cited report of the National Academy of Science claims that this would have catastrophic consequences. People in high-rise apartments, where water has to be pumped up, would be cut off immediately. For most others drinking water would come through the taps for about half a day, but the flow would then cease without electricity to pump it from reservoirs. Transportation systems directly or indirectly dependent on electric power (which means practically all systems) would come to a standstill. Back-up generators would operate at some sites until their fuel ran out. For hospitals that would mean about 72 hours of essential care only services. Without power for heating, cooling and refrigeration, and with a breakdown in the distribution of medicines and pharmaceuticals, urban population would begin to die back within days.
Scientists forecast yet another disruptive event for the end of 2012: breaches in the Earth’s magnetic field. In the past this field protected living systems from the effects of solar storms and coronal mass ejections. Lately the magnetic field has diminished in intensity and holes and gaps have appeared. Scientists in South Africa measured cracks in the magnetic field the size of California, and in December of 2008 NASA announced that its Themis Project had found a massive breach that would allow a devastating amounts of solar plasma to enter the Earth’s magnetosphere.
The fluctuation of the magnetic field could also lead to the reversal of the planet’s magnetic poles. During the course of reversal the magnetic field would become still weaker, and the danger to life from solar and stellar radiation would greatly increase.
Another scientific report of relevance concerns the entry of our solar system into a highly energized region of space. This turbulent region is making the Sun hotter and stormier and has already caused climate change on other planets. According to Russian scientists the effects on Earth will include an acceleration of the magnetic pole shift, the vertical and horizontal distribution of ozone, and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events.
There is solid scientific evidence backing up the prophecy that the end of 2012 will be a turbulent epoch. Will we be ready for the abrupt shifts and disruptions it will bring, and ready to seize the opportunities that will open in their wake? We must now face this question. The answer to it is not yet in, but one thing is certain: we must wake up to both to the dangers and to the opportunities of the “WorldShift 2012” awaiting us.

The Chinese way to protect the environment

Can you believe this:
"Living in the mountains brought many difficulties to the villagers such as education, transportation, water supply, medical care and even marriage," said an official surnamed Zhao of the town of Zhenluoying in Pinggu district [in Beijing Municipality]. The Chinese official adds that the relocation will bring much convenience to their life and some job opportunities and it will also be good for mountain forestry.
It is difficult to understand how emptying the mountains of its traditional inhabitants will help 'mountain forestry'.
The same theory has been applied in Tibet where the chang-thang, traditionally the habitat of the Tibetan nomads has been emptied of its nomads to ...'preserve' the environment.
Last year a report of Xinhua News Agency affirmed that: "China has settled nearly 50,000 Tibetan nomads into sedentary communities in a drive to protect the remote alpine region's fragile ecology from their herds". The report continued: "49,631 people from nomadic families were settled over the past four years…[after being] relocated from a rugged region on the Tibetan plateau that is home to the headwaters of three of Asia's major rivers, the Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong."
Unbelievable! 
If the Chinese leaders are serious, they should do an operation à la Pol Pot and remove the inhabitants of the big cities like Beijing which are polluting much more than the nomads or the mountain folks. Such a non-sense!


Villagers told to descend
Global Times
April 28 2010
By Li Yanhui
Thousands of villagers in the city's mountainous areas must leave home in October to live down in the valleys.
Started in 2005, the mountainous villager relocation project has already moved 50,000 villagers, meaning 221 villages have disappeared off the map of the city, according to the Beijing Daily.
About 80 families of Zhangjiatai in Pinggu district are preparing to move to their new village at the foot of the mountain.
Some 6,000 other mountain villagers around Beijing will also be moved before No-vember to new homes.
"Living in the mountains brought many difficulties to the villagers such as educa-tion, transportation, water supply, medical care and even marriage," said an official surnamed Zhao of the town of Zhenluoying in Pinggu district.
"The relocation will bring much convenience to their life and some job opportunities."
Relocation will also be good for mountain forestry, she said.
The government has invested more than 1.2 billion yuan ($175.78 million) in new homes and infrastructure, according to the Beijing Daily.
Government previously had to invest large sums each year repairing roads and maintaining water and power supplies to these remote villages.
"Relocating a village can save more than 1.3 million yuan ($190,429) investment in infrastructure," an official at the Beijing Municipal Commission of Rural Affairs told the Beijing Daily.
An investigation carried out for the mountainous villager relocation project concluded that the 68,000 farmers living in mountainous areas faced daily living difficulties and threats from natural disasters such as rivers bursting their banks.
Some Liulitai villagers involved in the pilot project had doubts about the idea, as they had to invest about 200,000 yuan ($29,296.73) in a new home, said resident Liu Hai.
"I now have to walk about four kilometers to the farmland to take care of the fruit trees on the mountain," he said.
The move proved a success, he said, when families found they were able to repay their debt within two or three years by supplying accommodation to travelers.
The relocation project has also made 2,000 mu (133 hectares) of farmland available for planting trees, according to the Beijing Daily.

Damming the Mekong

It is only a beginning. The situation can only worsen in the years and decades to come. Of course dam builders and operators will say that it is not scientifically proven that the dams are responsible for such a situation.
In the meantime, the Chinese are still thinking of damming and diverting the Brahmaputra! 
What to say, except it is madness.
It is madness for Tibet, madness for Asia, madness for China (and India and Bangladesh will suffer the most). 
You can read a good report on the subject: Mountains of Concrete: Dam Building in the Himalayas

Southeast Asia Drought Triggers Debate Over Region's Water Resources
VOA
Ron Corben | Bangkok
25 March 2010
A drought across southern China and Southeast Asia has brought the Mekong River to its lowest level in 50 years. The drought has led to debate over the vital resource and the effects that economic development, especially dam construction, may have on the river flow.
In northern Thailand, the wide Mekong River is known as Mother River. It travels from headwaters in the Tibetan plains over 4,000 kilometers to the South China Sea.
But this year, the river has fallen to its lowest level in decades.
Julian Wright manages a guest house on the Mekong River's banks at Khon Kaen in northern Thailand. Wright says there are more sand banks visible in the river than in past years.
"I couldn't pronounce it being absolutely the lowest but it's certainly the lowest I've ever seen. The hopper that collects water from the town might find itself beached, then we might find we have a running water problem," he said.
The Mekong runs through China's southern Yunnan Province, through parts of Burma, Thailand and Laos, and then moves through Cambodia and Vietnam before reaching the sea.
This year, the dry season in Southeast Asia has been far drier than normal. And the southern Chinese provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan are suffering a severe drought. Over 20 million people face water shortages with some 6.5 million hectares of crops affected.
"This is a one in 50-year occurrence - with a return period of 50 years - so it's quite severe," says Ian Makin, an engineer and senior water resources management specialist with the Asian Development Bank. "Now the problem comes is that in the dry season most people that are cropping in the Mekong Basin are using pumps and when the water level drops further than normal they can't let water out into their fields and they're struggling to keep the crop alive."
In towns, water resource officials have asked communities to conserve water. Barges and ferries normally plying the river have been forced to halt services, because in some areas, the river is nearly dry. And in low-lying areas in Vietnam's fertile Mekong delta, the drought means salty ocean water can move onto farm land, damaging the soil.

Damming the Mekong River
Environmental and rights organizations in Thailand say dams on waterways in southern China contribute to the river's low levels.
The Save the Mekong Coalition, an alliance of environmental groups, criticizes China's management of the river and dams built in China. 
"It's not a natural drought - but it's also the impact from the large scale infrastructure which is the dam upstream and the fishermen and farmers have been suffering from the change of the eco-system of the Mekong River very much. And they suspect that this is because of the way the damming upstream controls the water flow," said  Pianporn Deetes, a coalition spokeswoman.
China has completed the Xiaowan hydroelectric dam, the second largest hydro-electric station in the country, on the upper reaches of the Mekong. Eight others are being built in Yunnan Province. 
Jeremy Bird heads the Mekong River Commission, made up of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. He dismisses concerns about the dams and blames the drought for the low water levels.
"Looking at the flow records that we have, we see no reason to suggest any operation of those projects upstream has made the situation worse. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest that if those dams had not been in place then the lower water levels may have been experienced even earlier in January," said Bird.

Possible water conflicts
Sensitivities over the Mekong's flows have led to talks between China and Thailand on how the dams may affect water levels. Chinese officials reject claims the dams contribute to low water levels.
Early next month, China will attend a summit of leaders from Mekong River nations in Bangkok. The leaders hope to find ways to better manage the river.
There are fears that rising populations will mean increased use of the Mekong for drinking water, farming, fishing and transportation. Smith Dhanrmasaroja, head of Thailand's National Disaster Warning Center, thinks Southeast Asia may eventually face conflicts over water.
"Of course they will fight. Each country they will fight for water. We will have a war, a water war in this region and people when they need to water to drink you know they will fight for everything. So conflict between Lao, Thai, Myanmar, Kampuchea (Cambodia), that thing is going to happen - we will wait and see," he said.
In a report released this week, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific expressed similar concerns about water security in the region.
The report warns that water shortages in the region are likely to be exacerbated by climate change.

Shrinking, shrinking, shrinking

This seems more reliable information than Patchauri's, and it is shrinking! Slowly, but surely!
The government should wake up and stop their per capita theory.



Himalayan glaciers shrank 16% in 50 yrs: ISRO
PTI, Mar 28, 2010,
BANGALORE: Himalayan glaciers retreated by 16% in the last nearly five decades due to climate change, investigations by India’s scientists in selected basins in four states has revealed. The retreat of Himalayan glaciers and loss in a real extent were monitored in selected basins in J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Sikkim, under a programme on space-based global climate change observation by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).
“Investigations on glacial retreat were estimated for 1,317 glaciers in 10 sub-basins from 1962. This has shown an overall reduction in glacial area from 5,866 sqkm to 4,921 sqkm since 1962, showing an overall de-glaciation of 16%”, says the latest annual report of Isro. Snow cover monitoring of all basin has been completed, it said.
Atlases for three years are ready and one for the fourth year is being prepared. Modeling response of Himalayan cryosphere to climate change has been initiated, Isro added. Meanwhile, a study on the impact of temperature and carbon dioxide (CO²) rise on the productivity of the four major cereal food crops — wheat, rice, maize and pearl millet — revealed that yield of all of them showed reduction with increasing temperature.
Assessment after taking field data showed that wheat was the most sensitive crop and maize the least sensitive to temperature rise among the four, Isro pointed out. Another study for climate change impact on hydrology was carried out using “Curve Number” approach to study the change in run off pattern in India at basin level. “Analysis shows there will be significant increase of run off in the month of June in most of the major river basins”, the 2009-10 report of the Isro said. Isro has also observed a strong correlation between agriculture vegetation (mainly rice areas) and methane concentration.

Border Roads to Tibet

It is easier for the PLA to built roads in Tibet than for the Border Road Organization in the Himalayas. 
One can't have everything in life: a democratic system, a vigilant judiciary and at the same time, the ruthless efficiency of a totalitarian regime.
I wonder how the Central Empowered Committee members managed to count the 14,018 herbs.



SC OKs building border road overlooking China
Times of India
Dhananjay Mahapatra,
March 28, 2010,
NEW DELHI: The Supreme Court has finally cleared the Army’s long-pending proposal to construct a strategic road near the trijunction of Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim. The clearance comes with certain conditions including a payment of 5% of the estimated project cost to the Sikkim government, which would use the money for compensatory afforestation.
The Army will construct two roads in the sensitive international border area in Sikkim, facilitating a strategic access route virtually overlooking China, a demand which had been pending clearance from the SC since 2005.
A Central Empowered Committee (CEC), constituted by the SC, went into the proposal as it involved Border Road Organization (BRO) constructing a new road between Flag Hill and Dokala passing through Pangolakha Wildlife Sanctuary. The Army said ‘‘the road is required for operational purposes and to meet strategic requirement of the nation’’.
After a site inspection by CEC members M K Jiwrajika and Mahendra Vyas, and amicus curiae A D N Rao, a report was submitted to a bench comprising CJI K G Balakrishnan and Justices S H Kapadia and Aftab Alam.
The report said: ‘‘The entire alignment of the proposed road passes through the high altitude alpine areas of the sanctuary [Pangolakha Wildlife Sanctuary] and would involve felling of 3,042 trees, 9,769 shrubs, 14,018 herbs and about 5,000 bamboos.’’

Why are the Tibetans not invited?

It seems to me that we are still living in the 19th century when the British could negotiate and sign treaties about Tibet without the participation of the Tibetans. 
Remember 1890, 1893, 1906, 1907  and then the infamous Panchsheel Agreement in April 1954. Why are the Tibetans are never invited to discuss their own fate, their own future?
Colonialist China probably think: 'It is not their business!' 
As the 21st Tibetan Task Force for Negotiations is meeting in Dharamsala, it should be the first topic on the agenda: a Tibetan participation to all conferences/study groups/seminars on the ecological future of the Tibetan plateau. 
Are we still living in the 19th century? What is the point to speak about 'autonomy' today, if the Tibetans are not even invited to discuss their future?

Int'l scientists to launch environmental studies on "Third Pole"
Xinhua, March 9, 2010
International scientists are preparing to launch a joint study on the environment of the "Third Pole" region centered on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and neighboring areas, a Chinese scientist said Monday.
Like the South and North Poles, environmental changes in the "Third Pole" has attracted increasing worldwide attention against the backdrop of concerns over global climate change, said Yao Tandong, director of the Institute of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research with the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The "Third Pole" region, covering more than 5 million square km at an average altitude of above 4,000 meters, is the birthplace of about 1,000 glaciers in tropical and sub-tropical regions, Yao said.
"The environmental changes in the 'Third Pole' will directly affect the economic and social development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and neighboring countries, and will directly or indirectly affect the livelihoods and even survival of the 1.5 billion residents there," he told Xinhua in an exclusive interview.
Yao, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), made the remarks while attending the ongoing annual session of the country's top political advisory body.
"Due to the global climate change, the 'Third Pole' is experiencing sensitive and marked changes, such as in cryosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere, which are exerting an influence on the social and economic development in the region," he said.
Under the "Third Pole Environment" (TPE) project initiated by Chinese scientists, a group of scientists and science organizations from countries in the region and western countries will gather to carry out joint studies focusing on the competing influences of water, ice, air, ecosystem and human activities in the region, Yao said.
"We hope to reveal the process and mechanism of environmental changes in the 'Third Pole' region, its response mechanism to global climate change, especially the monsoon system, improve the adaptation ability of human-kind for climate change, and help achieve harmonious development between human-kind and nature," he said.
Chinese scientists have conducted studies on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for decades, and will further improve their research methods to expand their studies to the "Third Pole" region, Yao said.
During the interview, Yao also offered some negative forecasts for the plateau region due to climate change and human activities.
It is expected that the glaciers in China, located mainly on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, would shrink by more than 45 percent in area by 2100, he said.
"In developing glacier tourism, we must protect the environment," he said.
In addition, the area of frozen earth on the plateau would decrease by about 8.8 percent 50 years later and would diminish "drastically" within the next century, he said.
"That will endanger the safety of the highways and railway on the plateau," he warned.
He proposed that the central government continue funding major highway and railway projects to eliminate hidden dangers in roadbeds on top of the frozen earth layer in a bid to ensure the coordinated development of society, economy and the ecosystem in Tibet.