Monday, November 7, 2011

The Only Way?

This article of The Hindu Business Line is quoting me, the author has however forgotten my conclusion: "If China wants again to ‘teach a lesson’ to India, it will be a Himalayan task, and in the process, the PLA may get a ‘bloody nose’, as they say in the Army."
On the last day of the G20 Meet in Cannes on the French Riviera, President Sarkozy had a one-to-one dinner with only one of his 19 colleagues, guess who?
No, not Manmohan Singh (to sell the Rafales?), but with Hu Jintao! 
One thing is sure, would China try again a '1962' on India, it will be the end of exclusive suppers for the Chinese leaders. 
Beijing knows that it would 'lose face' in the process. It is an important factor for the present Emperors.
Are they ready?

Bonding for peace is the only way
The Hindu Business Line 
 B. S. Raghavan
November 6, 2011 
Is a repeat attack on India still a live option in China's strategic calculations? No security analyst on the Indian side dares to say no. So deep is the hurt to the Indian psyche caused by the 1962 invasion. The assumption invariably is that China at some point will see it as the only means of asserting its power and dominance to elbow India out altogether in the global race for leadership and influence.
A research paper of India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, known for its hawkish propensity, moots a graded three-tier proposition: A Kargil-like limited war on a specific section of the border or line of control (LAC) of a limited duration amenable to a negotiated termination; a “territorial grab”, possibly of Tawang; or lateral or horizontal expansion of the conflict engulfing Ladakh, Central sector, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
Prof. J. W. Garver, the noted scholar specialising in Chinese studies, in his book, The Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century, also conceives of three scenarios which make an armed conflict “probable”: China intervening in an Indian-Pakistan war in support of the latter; a major uprising against its rule in Tibet in which China suspects India's hand; and the unresolved border dispute coming to a boil and getting out of hand.

Mohan Malik, expert on Asian security matters, in his book China and India: Great Power Rivals, considers the probability “extremely low”, but real, since China would want to “lash out against India” if it looks like surging ahead of China in economic growth.
The only counter to these Doomsday forecasts that I have seen is from Dr Claude Arpi, a respected Tibetologist. He bases his reasoning primarily on the cordial relations that exists between the local administration and the Indian armed and para-military forces, on the one hand, and the tribal leaders and the local population, on the other.
His impression, after a personal visit to the North-Eastern States, is that the local Monpa population is resentful of the description of their area as Southern Tibet and will never accept Chinese dominion over the region.
But these are intangibles, though they will conduce to the flow of accurate human intelligence, effective civil defence measures, security coordination and protection and maintenance of infrastructural assets.
The acid test will always be the preparedness of India to give a fitting response to any aggressor from across its borders. The one major difference between 1962 and now will be the certainty of India deploying the full strike capabilities of its Air force to attack China's supply lines and stop its advance before it begins.


However, published reports have always projected India as lagging behind China to a disturbing extent in respect of infrastructural development, manpower, equipment and even inventories and war wastage reserves.
Critical shortages are said to be worth Rs 60,000 crore, equivalent to 10 per cent of defence inventory in missiles, ammunition, heavy-lift helicopters, gunships, howitzers and modern communication systems. China's armed forces are seen capable of driving up to most theatres on the border on well-laid highways, and moving 34 divisions or over 400,000 soldiers in a month.
All this notwithstanding, China is most unlikely to start any armed conflict with India even on a limited scale. It is no longer the fanatically militant pusher of Marxist-Leninist ideology, ever on short fuse against fancied offence and insult. In the 50 years since 1962, it has mellowed considerably, and developed the restraint and sobriety of a self-confident achiever on the world stage, eager to retain its respectability as a quasi-capitalist economic giant.
India too has earned universal admiration for its success stories and doing one better than China as an impressive model of development while still nurturing the values of democracy. China knows that India is no push-over.
The entire world will be ranged against China if it makes any aggressive move. It is only by bonding for lasting peace and close friendship India and China can hope to achieve the levels of greatness and prosperity deserving of future world powers.

No comments: