Follow the Party: but where are the Tibetans' allegiance?

On July 4, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China's (CPC) Central Committee, called on the CPC members to implement “the Party's organizational line for the new era and make the Party stronger.”
Efforts were required to break new ground in "the great new project of Party building,” he said.
Xi added: “In order to uphold and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, our party must have the courage to carry out self-reform to make the Party stronger."
The Chairman of the Central Military Commission spoke of the importance of fostering competent officials who are loyal to the Party, have moral integrity, and demonstrate a keen sense of responsibility: “all measures should be taken to attract excellent, patriotic, and devoted people.”
Xi insisted on the principle of “selecting officials on the basis of both integrity and ability, with priority given to integrity.”
‘Integrity’ means, "follow the Party line".

Taking oath to follow the Party for life
In this context, ‘oath taking’ ceremonies were organized all over Tibet on occcasion of the 97th Anniversary of the Communist Party’s Foundation.
The CPC was founded in 1921, chiefly by Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao. The party grew quickly, and by 1949 after driving the nationalist forces, the Kuomintang (KMT) from mainland, Mao established the People's Republic of China.
Let us remember that the world's largest armed forces, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) which has among other tasks to man the Indian border, is the Army of the Party.
During the recent ceremonies, the stress was put on education, including ‘patriotic’ education for the masses (known as the ‘Four Standards and Four Loves’).

In Ngari

All-over Tibet
In Ngari Prefecture, the People's Armed People (PAP) conducted a 'One-Week Oath Taking' program. A opening function was organized to mark the occasion.
The First Division of TAR’s PAP took oath to put their life (till death) at the Service of the Party.
In other places, oath-taking ceremonies/functions were organized too.
In Purang, near the Nepal-Tibet-India trijunction, the Border Security and Inspection Forces took the oath of Service to Party.
In Lhasa, the Military leadership sang Revolutionary songs in front of Potala Palace.
The 11th Committee of the China's Steel Road Construction Company Office retook Oath of Service to Party in Chusur county (of Lhasa City) on June 29.

In Chongye

In Nyingtri (Nyingchi) City, the Party organized various program of songs and dances ‘praising the graciousness of Party’ and urging people to follow the Party line.
In Ratoe village in Nyethang town, Chusur County in Lhasa City, Party cadres and Party officials also took the Oath of Service to Party.
The Gyatza county of Lhoka Prefecture also celebrated the ‘One Week’ program. Newly resettled Tibetans from other areas (an euphemism for displaced nomads) were welcome.
Group songs were presented by county Gyatza county Artist Association.
In Chongye in Lhoka Prefecture, the Publicity (Propaganda) Bureau’s officials marked the 97th CPC’s Anniversary by retaking Oath of Service to Party.
An audience of farmers and nomads were explained by Publicity Bureau’s officials, the meaning of the ceremony.

In Tsona

Near Indian Border
Even near the Indian border in Tsona (north of Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh), Wang Kaibing, a member of the Standing Committee of the County Party Committee and other officials went to a grazing point near the border “to carry out the theme of the Party”, i.e. the villagers are “sacred land keepers and the builders of happy homes”.
Officials were accompanied by the Armed Police personnel stationed on the border.
All party members faced the Party flag and retook the Party's Oath.
One Pema Tsering urged the participants to first remember their identity as Party members, to be loyal to the Party, to work actively and fight for Communism for the rest of their life.
All party members spoke of jointly studying the spirit of the 19th Party Congress and promoting the ‘Four Standards and Four Loves’.
Pema Tsering, who belongs to the Border Temporary Party Branch, gave a report on the development on the border.
Wang Kaibing spoke highly of the work done by the Temporary Party Branch and urged to strengthen the political leadership in the border areas: “We will strengthen the education of the ideals and convictions of the farmers and herdsmen in the border areas, educate and guide the farmers and herdsmen to strengthen their ideals and convictions, and actively maintain a high degree of unity in the ideological and political actions with the Party's Central Committee, and resolutely safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core.”
He spoke of:

• Standardizing the life of the Party's organization
• Strengthening the awareness of 'serving the people'
• Strengthen the construction of Party by listening to the stories of the old party members about their ‘counterattacks’ (against India in 1962):
• Knowing the Party, Listening to the Party, Following the Party, and Establishing a sense of pride as a Chinese citizen.

The Five-Point Peace Plan
In 1987, the Dalai Lama presented his Five-Point Peace Plan to the US Congress.
His third Point spoke of the “fundamental human rights and democratic freedoms must be respected in Tibet. The Tibetan people must once again be free to develop culturally, intellectually, economically and spiritually and to exercise basic democratic freedoms. …While Tibetans in exile exercise their democratic rights under a constitution promulgated by me in 1963, thousands of our countrymen suffer in prisons and labour camps in Tibet for their religious or political convictions.”
The democratic freedoms mentioned by the Dalai Lama seem so far today.
Under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has greatly intensified the Rule of the Party.
Even populations on the Indian borders have to take oath to serve the Party ...for life.
But can it last forever?
Are the people ‘following’ the Party on their free will?
One test would be to allow the Dalai Lama to return to Tibet for a short visit.
We could probably see the real allegiance of the Masses.
China will not take this risk, they know too well where are the ‘Loves’ of the Tibetans people.

In Nyingtri

In Lhasa

The Gyatsa county

Gyatza county

 

In Chusur county

In Nyingtri

In Purang

In Ngari

The Communist High-Mass

The High-Mass of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has started.
Every five years, it follows the same precise ritual. The outgoing CCP’s General Secretary (in the present case, Xi Jinping), gives a 3 hour long speech, describing the internal and external changes facing the country, which the party needs to address.
Everything is scripted.
First, the election of 2287 delegates to the 19th Congress which took place months ago, among 40 ‘electoral blocs’ – representing each of China’s 31 provinces as well as the central party organs, national State institutions, the People’s Liberation Army, etc.
There are two types of delegates, the ‘big shots’ who will make it to the 200-odd member Central Committee (CC) and the ‘grass-root’ delegates which count for nearly half of the delegates; and five or seven ‘big ones’ who will eventually reach the Communist Paradise, the Politburo’s Standing Committee.
The Party Congress has three main purposes.
First, it establishes a new party line to be followed for five years; the Congress is the authoritative body to do so. The ‘draft’ read by the General Secretary has been seen and commented by thousands and hundreds of amendments have already been incorporated.
Alice Miller, one of the best experts in CCP’s affairs wrote: “Over the course of its session, a party congress sets down a consensus evaluation of the party’s work over the five-year period since the preceding congress and an assessment of the party’s present situation, and it sets forth general guidelines—the party’s line—for the party’s priorities, emphases, and tasks for the coming five-year period until the next congress.”
At the end, a resolution will endorse Xi Jinping’s speech establishing the party’s consensus on all policies that the party leadership will face.
Then, according to the Constitution, a CC Plenum must convene at least once a year to follow up on the directions given by the Congress.
The second purpose of the Meet is to revise the Party’s Constitution and introduce changes such as a new theory, a brain-child of the current Secretary General.
Finally, the Congress nominates a new leadership for the five years to come. It includes the CC whose plenums give directions to the Party between two Congresses, but also some 170 alternate members whose role is replace the CC’s full-members when required (when full members are sent to jail for corruption for example), as well as a new Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CDIC), whose job is to tackle corruption.
Finally, before the Congress closes its doors, the CC’s first Plenum will appoint the top party leadership. It also nominates the all-powerful Central Military Commission, a new Secretariat (the body that facilitates the implementation of Politburo decisions) as well as the State Council or Cabinet, headed by the Premier, usually the No 2 in the Party’s hierarchy.
During his speech on October 18, President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the next five years of China’s development. According to The South China Morning Post, “he vowed to step up ideological guidance within the party, strengthen its anti-corruption campaign, retain the government’s grip on Hong Kong and Macau, and oppose any moves towards independence in Taiwan.”
One of the most expected parts of the speech was the inclusion of Xi’s so-called political philosophy; it will thereafter be known as ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era’.
The new motto will be repeated thousand times all-over the Middle Kingdom. It is said that there are 14 elements behind the elaborated concept; the first is that Party should lead in every aspect of life in China. Xi declared that “the dream of national rejuvenation would only be a fantasy without the leadership of China’s Communist Party. The party should lead in all areas and the authority of the party central leadership should be respected.”
Other highlights are ambitious targets to be achieved during the next 30 years and more, “From 2035 to 2050, China should become a nation with pioneering global influence.” The momentum of the anti-corruption campaign is ‘irreversible’ and rule by law would be maintained.
Of course, national security would be boosted and the Party would resolutely protect its sovereignty and interests. Xi spoke of ‘historical breakthrough’ in national defence and military reform: “The navy has protected the nation’s maritime interest and its army rapidly upgraded its weaponry. …The People’s Liberation Army should be a ‘world class’ force by 2050.”
Some in India may think, it is not necessary to worry; 2050 is far-away. However it is crucial to watch the CMC’s new composition. It may bring radical changes and surprises which could determine if new ‘Doklam’ incidents would take place in the years to come.
Sharp observers have predicted that the number of Vice-Chairmen of the Commission may go from two to four. Some of Xi Jinping’s close allies are expected to be promoted.
One is General Zhang Youxia, director of the Equipment Development Department, who is tipped to become one of two vice chairmen, while present vice chairman, Xu Qiliang, is expected to stay on. Zhang, like Xi is native from the northwestern province of Shaanxi and both he and Xi are children of former senior PLA officials.
The other two candidates are Li Zuocheng, director of the Joint Staff Department and Miao Hua, the new head of the Political Department; they may also make it.
Whether China will follow a ‘peaceful rise’ or a more tumultuous one, will depends on the capacity of Xi to impose a ‘rule of law’.
If the generals remain ‘wild’ as in the past, India may have to face a serious situation.
The battle is not yet played out.

The Tibetans in full costume 
Apart from the Secretary General's speech,  is it interesting to look at the attire of the delegates.
On the second day of the 19th Congress, the delegates of the 31 provinces met separately.
While most of the delegates wore suit and tie, the Tibetans had to show off their regional attire.
Just have a look at these photos.

Hubei Province delegation

Anhui Province delegation

Yunnan Province delegation

Fujian Province delegation

Delegation of the central financial organs

Qinghai Province delegation

Guangdong Province delegation

Gansu Province delegation

Zhejiang Province delegation

And now the Tibetan delegation.
Out of 29 delegates, 11 Tibetans are from the 'grass root'.
While the 'big shots', from the regional Standing Committee of the Tibetan Autonomous Region like Wu Yingjie, Lobsang Gyaltsen or Che Dralha wore suits and ties, the 'grass root' delegates have no choice but to show their regional costumes.
It is always a great attraction for the journalists and photographers.
Can it be considered as a display of Tibetan culture?
Are the delegates just for the show in Beijing ?
Difficult to say.

Chairman Xi shuffles his pack as China begins to analyse the Doklam incident

My article Chairman Xi shuffles his pack as China begins to analyse the Doklam incident appeared in Daily Mail (UK) and Mail Today.

Here is the link...

While the Doklam incident is over and many still rejoice that India 'won' the battle, some uncertainty remains. And if corrective measures are not taken from the Indian side, it is clear that similar incidents will happen again with a different outcome the next time.
There is no doubt that China has started analysing the incident too. In this context it is interesting to look at the changes which have taken place in the Chinese defence forces since an agreement was found between Beijing and Delhi on Doklam.
First, it is obvious that China may remain belligerent for some time, partly because China had to withdraw from the Bhutanese territory without being able to build a road.
For example, the Communist media, particularly The Global Times, has gone ballistic against the Indian Army Chief: 'Rawat has such a big mouth that he could ignite the hostile atmosphere between Beijing and New Delhi. He not only turns a blind eye to international rules, but also made us see the arrogance probably prevailing in the Indian Army.'

Attack
For Beijing, attack remains the best form of defence, but vital changes have taken place within the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
On the positive side, some officials in Beijing seem to realise that aggression can lead China nowhere.
Maj Gen Qiao Liang, one of the best known military strategists and the co-author of Unrestricted Warfare, a book which created waves in strategic circles in the West, wrote in The Global Times: 'We should spare no efforts to avoid pushing the country into a war as peace is the best outcome.'
Qiao continued: 'Road construction in this area is not a matter of right and wrong, but we need to understand that it's not always right to do something right at any time.
'Only doing the right thing at the right time is correct… resorting to war is irresponsible. Whenever there may be a way to solve a conflict without war, war should be avoided.'
At the same time, Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), has undertaken an overhaul of the defence forces.
A few weeks before the Party's 19th Congress (scheduled to start on October 18), new faces have appeared on the scene; a massive reshuffle of the PLA's generals, not only at the Group Army (Corps) level but also at the top of the hierarchy, is ongoing.
Analysts believe that Xi is promoting his favourites to PLA's top posts to gain absolute control over the military; in the process, two top generals got sacked hardly a month before retiring.
Gen Fang Fenghui, the equivalent of the US Chief of Defence Staff, was replaced as Chief of the PLA's Joint Staff Department by Gen Li Zuocheng, a Xi protégé.
Fang and Gen Zhang Yang, another CMC member, will not even participate in the forthcoming Congress.
The rumour mill said that they were being 'investigated', a term not usually auguring well for the targeted person.
This may indicate bad days ahead for the generals.

Impermanence
By mid-October, out of 11 members of the CMC, only two may remain, the Chairman and Gen Xu Qiliang, one of the two serving vice-chairmen.
Note that in China, unlike democratic India, there is no fuss about 'seniority'; superseded generals have only to learn the meaning of 'impermanence'.
Remember the case of Lt Gen Yang Jinshan, a former Deputy Commander of the former Chengdu Military Region (MR), who served several years in Tibet. He was a rising star of the PLA; in 2012, he was even promoted to Central Committee, the Party's top heaven; at that time, he was senior to his direct boss, Li Zuocheng, who then commanded the MR.
Today, Yang Jinshan is languishing jail, being 'investigated' while Li Zuocheng is the powerful Chief of the Joint Staff Department. On September 1, Gen Han Weiguo, only 61, was appointed commander of the PLA Army and Gen Ding Laihang, 60, commander of the PLA Air Force (PLAAF).
Gen Han served in Fujian in the 1980s at the time Xi was Deputy Mayor of Xiamen, while Gen Ding's career also overlapped when the latter was Governor of Fujian Province.

Surprises
The recently-released list of PLA's delegates to the 19th Congress had some surprises. The 303 'elected' members belong to 31 different units, compared with 19 in 2012; one example, the new PLA Rocket Force is now represented.
More than 90 per cent of those 'elected' will be first-time attendees, representing a new generation of officers who will owe their rise to Chairman Xi only.
Further, according to The Asia Times, the ethnicity factor still plays a negative role in promotions: 'While sweeping military change is on the cards at China's upcoming communist party Congress, few expect ethnic minority officers from unstable regions to make top brass.'
Though there is a slight rise in the number of 'ethnic' delegates (6 per cent of the delegates are ethnic minority officers, from 4.6 per cent in 2012), their number is relatively small and they don't occupy important post.
The Asia Times noted: 'The Manchus and Tibetans will each send three delegates, while the Uyghur, Hui and Tujia will each put forward two. The Zhuang, Xibe, Korean, Qiang, Bai and Naxi ethnicities will each send one delegate to the Congress.'
This remains the PLA's Achilles' heel.
The future of the relations between India and China is undoubtedly linked to the outcome of the seismic changes in the PLA.
India should not only watch carefully, but also get its acts together, particularly in the field of border infrastructure.

Beijing banks on history, India on new confidence

In one voice?

My article Beijing banks on history, India on new confidence appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.

Here is the link...

China appears to have miscalculated New Delhi’s response to its attempt to change the status quo at the tri-junction. It believed that a ‘weak’ New Delhi would back out of a confrontation
The best form of defence is attack, believed Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist. This probably explains the new diplomatic offensive undertaken by China which would like to convince the foreign diplomatic community in Beijing that India was in the wrong to ‘occupy Chinese territory’ in the southern tip of the Chumbi Valley.
According to a national English daily, officials of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had closed-door briefings, giving their version of the events to several foreign diplomats posted in Beijing. A diplomat from one of the P-5 (permanent members of the UN Security Council) told the daily, “They have told our colleagues in Beijing that the Indian side has trespassed into Chinese territory and changed the status quo.”
In actual fact, the opposite happened.  On June 30, the Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi clarified that, in 2012, it had mutually been decided that status quo would be maintained in the disputed area: “The two Governments had in 2012 reached an agreement that the tri-junction boundary points between India, China and third countries will be finalised in consultation with the concerned countries. Any attempt, therefore, to unilaterally determine tri-junction points, is in violation of this understanding”, explained South Block’s statement, which asserted that it was essential that “all parties concerned display utmost restraint and abide by their respective bilateral understandings not to change the status quo unilaterally”.

A blunder
This raises a serious question. Despite the noise emanating from Beijing, it does appear that, by starting a conflict which will take months or years to cool down, someone, somewhere, in China has serious blundered. Whether it is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or the civilian leadership which miscalculated India’s resolve to militarily defend Bhutan, is irrelevant; but it has triggered a vicious circle (though India had a measured and mature response).
Nevertheless, it is a huge intelligence blunder on the part of Beijing which took India for granted. Of course, the deciders in Beijing had previous historical cases, particularly that of Tibet in the early 1950s, when India refused to defend ‘small insects being eaten by big insects’, as the 13th Dalai Lama termed an earlier Chinese invasion in 1910. This time, India did not hesitate to defend Bhutanese interests, especially in an area which is so strategic for New Delhi.
Could have the central Chinese leadership have taken such a risky gamble without a green signal from the ground — their representation in India? Though nothing will immediately change, in the months to come, we may see some heads rolling. Did the Chinese Ambassador in Delhi report that the ‘weak’ Indians would not react to the construction of a road? We may never know. But there is no doubt that the preparations for building a road in the disputed area started several months ago, if not earlier.
One issue which is usually not mentioned by commentators on the current stand-off is the tense situation in China, before the Communist Party’s 19th Congress, which will witness a significant change of guard. Could serious differences within the party have influenced the situation at the tri-junction Sikkim-Tibet-Bhutan?
It is possible.

The case of Sun Zhengcai
Last Saturday, Sun Zhengcai, a member of the Communist Party’s Politburo, and a Xi Jinping heir-apparent, was removed from the scene. Sun was one of the top contenders for a seat in the Central Committee’s Standing Committee of the Politburo; serving as party boss of Chongqing megacity, Sun is apparently investigated by the anti-graft agency.
Quoting a source in Chongqing, The South China Morning Post wrote: “Sun Zhengcai, at 53, the youngest member of the party’s 25-strong Politburo, is suspected of serious violation of party discipline.”
After Sun lost his job, the Hong Kong newspaper commented: “The development could have a significant impact on the upcoming leadership reshuffle in the autumn... The internal briefing did not state whether he had been placed under official investigation.”
Sun was immediately replaced by Guizhou’s party chief, Chen Miner, a Xi Jinping protégé. Earlier in the day, on Saturday, a video footage on state-run CCTV showed Sun attending a high-level finance meeting in Beijing: Impermanence is the way of life in communist China.

The case of 1962
One can recall the deadly infighting during the first months of 1962. At a meeting known as the 7,000 Cadres’ Conference, in January 1962, President Lui Shaoqi stated: “…man-made disasters strike the whole country”. He was targeting Mao, who was sidelined for a few months. In the summer of 1962, Mao decided to stage a comeback against ‘Left adventurism’ and ‘capitalist roaders’.
One person stood up and supported Mao: This was Lin Biao, who had replaced Marshall Peng as Defence Minister. Lin, who would lead the attack on India a few months later, asserted: “The thoughts of Chairman Mao are always correct.” This new-found alliance between Mao and the PLA Chief was, no doubt, one of the most important factors in the 1962 conflict.
In September 1962, at the 10th Plenum of the party’s 8th Congress, Mao took back the fate of China into his hands, denouncing “the members of the bourgeoisie in the party ranks”. He even attacked his mild Premier Zhou Enlai and Foreign Minister Chen Yi, who were accused of trying to rehabilitate intellectuals and scientists: "The bourgeois spirit hangs over like a ghost over their heads.”
Nine years later, the heir-apparent, Lin Biao was ‘eliminated’ in mysterious circumstances in an air crash.

The present power struggle
There is no doubt that times have changed, and it is difficult to conceive today a full-fledged conflict between India and China, but the fact remains that the Chinese leadership tends to become irrational when there is an intense power struggle within the party.
Recently, when Xi Jinping visited Hong Kong, unprecedented security measures, including a last-minute decision of shifting hotels, was due to fierce in-fighting in the party, according to Apple Daily, Hong Kong’s second best selling newspaper: “The threat to Xi’s safety is, for sure, not from Hong Kong demonstrators, the non-existent Hong Kong separatists, or the overseas extreme religious or separatist forces. Rather, it is from the communist party’s power struggle.” It was at the last minute that Beijing decided to change hotels, creating utter chaos for the media and the Hong Kong police. “This arrangement let the outside world realise that the communist party’s power struggle has come to the point of life or death for its leaders” commented Apple Daily.
Presuming that the tension on the border will continue till after the 19th Congress (when the winter will set over Dokala), it may become more and more difficult for China to extricate itself from its own rhetoric, which is not based on facts. In any case, this makes the situation dangerous. Incidentally, China will celebrate the 90th anniversary of the PLA on August 1; other crucial date.