Is the ‘Tibet card’ in play?

My article Is the ‘Tibet card’ in play? appeared in The Deccan Herald

Here is the link...

A dramatic Indian Army operation last week has given India tactical advantage in the 4-month-long confrontation with China 

 On August 31, a statement from the spokesperson of the Indian Army informed the nation that on the night of 29/30 August: “PLA troops violated the previous consensus arrived at during military and diplomatic engagements …and carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo.”
However, the Indian troops “pre-empted this PLA activity on the Southern Bank of Pangong Tso Lake, undertook measures to strengthen our positions and thwart Chinese intentions to unilaterally change facts on ground.”
It was clear that Delhi had decided to respond to the aggressive posture shown by the Chinese since the past four months; it was the first time that the Indian Army could ‘preempt’ the Chinese grabbing more Indian territory.
A few hours later, the social media was abuzz with news that a Tibetan officer had died; Company Leader Nyima Tenzin lost his life on a land-mine near (or on) the theater of the operations.
Though the government has remained silent on the subject (as it usually does when Special Forces are involved), the Indian media started mentioning the existence of the secretive Special Frontier Force, also called Vikas Regiment or Establishment 22. The first Inspector General of the Force, Brig (later Maj Gen) Sujan Singh Uban had once commanded the 22 Mountain Artillery Regiment (therefore the name 22s) before being sent on deputation to establish a Special Force, mainly composed of Tibetan refugees. It was in November 1962, a few days before the unilateral Chinese ‘cease-fire’. Since then, the Force has remained, as most other specialized commandos, unknown to the general public.
But the song of the regiment tells us about its original objectives: “We are the Vikasi; the Chinese snatched Tibet from us; and kicked us out from our home; even then, India, kept us like their own; one day, surely one day; we will teach the Chinese a lesson; whenever opportunities arise; we will play with our lives.”
We know very little about what has happened during the fateful night, but the point is India is today in a dominating position in the area south of the lake, near Rezang-la, where China suffered hundreds of casualties in November 1962. Beijing, one can imagine, is not happy; but for India, this is the first real good news since the beginning of the bitter conflict, which is bound to be known in Tibet itself.
It might have been a coincidence, but an important event took place on August 28 and 29 in Beijing; the Seventh Tibet Work Forum (TWF) was held. 

What exactly is a Work Forum on Tibet?
A TWF usually decides the fate of Tibet for the next five to ten years. This should deeply concern Delhi, as the TWF defines China’s long-term policies for its western borders.
The TWF was attended by two to three hundred senior officials (all in white shirts); it included the entire Politburo (with the Standing Committee standing on the dais), the People’s Liberation Army (the all-powerful members of the Central Military Commission were in attendance), several provincial Party Secretaries, representatives from different ministries, as well as local satraps posted in Tibet.
For the first time, the TWF was given large publicity; the TV report lasted more than 14 minutes, mostly quoting Xi Jinping and showing the ‘masked’ delegates (including the Chief of the Chinese Navy!).
The TWF comes two months before the Fifth Plenum of the Communist Party of China, which will have to take difficult decisions for the Middle Kingdom's shaky economy and also at the time Beijing is celebrating the 55th anniversary of the creation of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), which has never really been autonomous; at the same time, Xi Jinping is being questioned for some of his decisions within his own Party.
In his speech, he emphasized that Beijing’s objective was to build a new socialist modern Tibet that is “united, prosperous, civilized, harmonious and beautiful.”
Although Xi loves to speak about regional autonomy, it is clear that the Tibetans do not have much say in the matter. Why, for example, seventy years after the so-called ‘liberation’ of Tibet, has no ethnic Tibetan been made Party Secretary in Tibet? No Tibetan has ever made it to the Politburo? The reason is that the Han still do not trust the Tibetans, though Xi is fond of mentioning his theory: "governing border areas is the key for governing the country and stabilizing Tibet is a priority for governing border areas.”
In fact, the new Helmsman is nervous; China has never ‘stabilized’ Tibet: “It is necessary to strengthen the construction of border areas and adopt special support policies to help border residents improve their production and living conditions and solve their worries,” pleaded Xi.
The two ‘coincidental’ events (India taking control over the ridge south of Pangong tso and the TWF in Beijing) are linked to the ‘stability’ of the borders. While on one side, by extending China’s borders in Ladakh, Beijing dreams of ‘stabilizing’ Tibet and Xinjiang; on the other side, Tibetans are ready to give their lives to protect India’s frontiers.
Xi also spoke of promoting “the construction of a number of major infrastructure and public service facilities”, the large scale development of infrastructure on the plateau should indeed deeply worry Delhi.
Further, though the Tibetans should be at the center of the stage for Xi, they are hardly asked about their aspirations or their opinion.
Incidentally, it should be noted that Hua Chuning, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesperson, when asked about the Indian Special Forces, said that she was not aware of Tibetans serving in the Indian defence forces. Her remark was later deleted from the official transcript; clearly Beijing is troubled by the happenings in Ladakh.
Even without playing a Tibet card, Delhi should realize that Tibet is definitively an important factor in the present conflict and exiled Tibetans should perhaps stop dreaming of a dialogue with Beijing. Dharamsala can ask the Indian diplomats what happened to the 1954 Panchsheel Agreement, the 1958 Barahoti accord or the Chinese promises in 1993, 1996 or 2005; none were respected. Tibetans themselves had their own experience with the 17-Point Agreement in 1951.
The best bet for India and the exiled Tibetans is to closely work together; it could pay rich dividends.

A Tibet Forum without Tibetans

An important event took place on August 28 and 29.
The Seventh Tibet Work Forum (TWF) was held in Beijing.
While the previous one (the Sixth), organized on August 24 and 25, 2015, completely escaped the Indian (and the world) media, this one got immediate coverage; indeed, it is a crucial event not only as far it concerns the fate of the Roof of the World, but also for the presently-tense Indian frontiers.

But what exactly is a Work Forum on Tibet?
A Tibet Work Forum (TWF) usually decides the fate of Tibet for the next five to ten years. Delhi should be deeply concerned, at the time India faces a precarious situation in Ladakh, because the TWF also defines China’s western border policies.
The Fourth Forum was held in Beijing in January 2010; the four previous ones were organized in 1980, 1984, 1994 and 2001.
A Work Forum (or Conference) is attended two to three hundreds officials, including the entire Politburo (with the Standing Committee standing on the dais), the People’s Liberation Army (including the all-powerful members of the Central Military Commission), Party Secretaries of at least five provinces, representatives from different ministries, as well as local satraps posted in Tibet.
The Seventh TWF has been given large publicity; the TV report lasted more than 14 minutes, mostly quoting the ‘People’s Leader’ (Xi Jinping) and showing the large ‘masked’ attendance (including the Chief of the PLA Navy!); a detailed report (in Communist jargon) was immediately issued. The select  attendance shows Tibet's extreme importance for the Communist Party.

The Sixth TWF, already presided over by Xi, pleaded for more efforts to promote economic growth and bring about an inclusive social progress for Tibet and the Tibetan-inhabited areas; in 2015, Xi vowed to implement sustainable measures and continue preferential policies for the mountainous region which, “has entered a critical stage toward fulfilling the country's [China] goal of building a moderately prosperous society in a comprehensive way.” 

Note that the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) and Tibetan-inhabited areas of four provinces (Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan) were clubbed together as far as Beijing’s policies for Tibet were concerned.  

The timing of the Forum
The TWF comes two months before the Fifth Plenum of the Communist Party of China, which will have to take difficult decisions for the Middle Kingdom's shaky economy and also at the time, Beijing is celebrating the 55th anniversary of the creation of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), which has never really been autonomous; additionally, a tense situation on the border with India.
The Fifth TWF resulted in poverty alleviation schemes and the construction of hundreds of ‘moderately-well-off’ villages (‘ghettos’ say the Tibetans), particularly close to the border with India. There is no doubt that it is easier to control the masses when they are sedentary and settled in well-connected villages (via Wifi); when the whereabouts and actions of the villagers can be controlled through their mobile phones.
In 2015, Xi mentioned his well-known theory about the ‘border areas’: "governing border areas is the key for governing a country, and stabilizing Tibet;” since the month of May, we understand better why China wants to stabilize and control its borders with India.
Xi’s language was not very different this time.

Where was Gyaltsen Norbu?

No Monks, Not many Tibetans
But looking at the TV report one is struck by a few images.
First, no monk attended the Forum. For a society which has traditionally been based on “the Harmonious Blend of Religion and Politics,” it is strange to say the least. Even Gyaltsen Norbu, the Chinese selected Panchen Lama, a favorite of the Chinese media, was nowhere to be seen. He is probably too young (and unsafe) for the Communist hierarchy. His predecessor, the Tenth Panchen Lama, first a stooge of the Communists, had revolted and became one of the most ardent Tibetan patriots when he was released from jail in early 1980.
It is not only the lamas who were missing in action, but as far one can recognize  the masked faces (only members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo were exempted from wearing masks), hardly any Tibetans were present; although all the speeches (and the TWF itself) are around the welfare of the ‘masses of all ethnic groups’ in Tibet.
‘All ethnic groups in Tibet’ is a way to mention the large migration of Hans on the plateau.

The Ten Musts
In his speech, Xi Jinping emphasized The Ten Musts to “fully implement the Party's strategy of governing Tibet in the New Era;” he went through ten areas or ‘musts’.
The objective, he observed was to build a new socialist modern Tibet that is “united, prosperous, civilized, harmonious and beautiful.”
Xi Jinping elaborated on “forging a sense of the community of the Chinese nation, improving the quality of development, ensuring and improving people’s livelihood, promoting the construction of ecological civilization, strengthening the party’s organization and regime building, ensuring national security and long-term stability, ensuring the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, ensuring a good ecological environment, and ensuring the consolidation of the border defense and security, and finally striving to build a new socialist modern Tibet.”
That is the Ten-Point Program.
The CCP’s General Secretary pointed out: “Practice has fully proved that the Party Central Committee’s policies on Tibet work are completely correct, and that Tibet’s sustained, stable and rapid development is an important contribution to the overall work of the party and the country.”
He congratulated the comrades struggling on the ‘snowy plateau’, especially the cadres who serve on the frontline (read the border with India).

Members of the Politburo

Follow the Party
The new Great Helmsman further explained: “To do a good job in Tibet, we must adhere to the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, and the system of regional ethnic autonomy.”
Although Xi loves to speak about regional autonomy, it is clear that the Tibetans do not have much say in the matter. Why for example, seventy years after the so-called ‘liberation’ of Tibet, has any  ethnic Tibetan been made Party Secretary in Tibet? No Tibetan has ever made it to the Politburo?
The reason is that the Han still do not trust the Tibetans.
One can only wonder where does the Dalai Lama’s Middle Path fit in all this?
Xi continued his long speech (qualified as ‘important’ by the Chinese propaganda): “We must adhere to the strategic thinking that governing the country must govern the borders and stabilize Tibet before governing. It is necessary to maintain the unity of the motherland and strengthen national unity as Tibet's work.” He went on in the same vein, speaking of “enriching the people and rejuvenating Tibet, uniting people’s hearts, and consolidating the foundation.”
It is clear that the hearts of the Tibetans have not so far been ‘unified with the Motherland’; this will be probably what Xi and his colleagues will try to achieve during the coming years, by building more infrastructure, bringing more tourists and assimilating in different ways the recalcitrant Tibetans into the Chinese nation (by integrating them in to the PLA for example).

A copper wall and iron wall
Xi Jinping pointed out that it was necessary to “extensively mobilize the masses to participate in the struggle against separatism, and form a copper wall and iron wall for maintaining stability. It is necessary to carry out in-depth education on the history of the Party, the history of New China, the history of reform and opening up, and the history of socialist development, and the history of the relationship between Tibet and the motherland.”
In other words, indoctrination of the Tibetan masses and the fight against the Dalai Lama and his followers, is the need of the day for Beijing.
Buddhism has an important place in the scheme, but the Communist Party strive to “actively guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to the socialist society and promote the Sinicization of Tibetan Buddhism.”
One could call it ‘Buddhism with Marxist characteristics’.

Chief of the PLA Navy and his colleagues

Infrastructure Development
Worrying for India is the large scale development of infrastructure on the plateau; Xi spoke of promoting “the construction of a number of major infrastructure and public service facilities around the Sichuan-Tibet railway construction and other projects, and build more solidarity lines and happiness roads.” Other projects could be a railway line from Tibet to Xinjiang across the Aksai Chin and a new route between Tibet and Xinjiang (G216 Highway).
Xi added: “It is necessary to strengthen the construction of border areas and adopt special support policies to help border residents improve their production and living conditions and solve their worries.”
One wishes India would make the same resolution and help its own border populations.

The Old Spirit?
Like five years ago, Xi mentioned the ‘Old Tibet Spirit’, referring to the first Communist cadres who went to Tibet in the early 1950s: “the [present cadres] should not lack the Spirit, even if they lack oxygen, they should not be afraid of hardship, or the higher altitude. They should continue to enhance their sense of responsibility and mission” and he added : “It is necessary to care for Tibetan cadres and workers, improve and implement various supporting policies such as wage income, housing, medical treatment, children's schooling, and retirement placement, so as to solve their worries.”
The Tibetans still are at the center of the scheme, though they are hardly asked about their aspirations or their opinion.
In any case, all this does bode not well for the Tibetans in India (who will soon face a general election for a new ‘president’) and for the Indian border areas, whether in Ladakh or elsewhere on the northern frontier, which need more attention from the Indian Government.

Incidently, where was Foreign Minister Wang Yi who recently went on an inspection tour in Tibet and to the Indian border? Apparently in Paris. To convince President Macron that all is fine on the Indian border? Strange that he did not attend the Forum.

More on the 6th Tibet Work Forum

Wang Yang on an 'inspection' tour in Tibet

More on the 6th Tibet Work Forum held on August 24 and 25 in Beijing.
I must say that I was mistaken by the meeting of the Politburo of the CCP’s Central Committee which on July 30, discussed Tibet.
I was then under the impression that it WAS the 6th Tibet Work Forum.
On July 30, Xinhua had announced: “Chinese leaders discuss Tibet development, stability …Chinese leaders met to discuss economic and social development in Tibet and how to ensure the autonomous region achieve prolonged stability.”
A statement issued after the Politburo meeting presided over by President Xi Jinping noted: “Safeguarding national unity and strengthening ethnic unity should be highlighted in work involving Tibet. …Efforts should be made to unswervingly carry out the anti-separatism battle, promote the region's economic and social development, safeguard and improve people's welfare, and enhance exchanges and integration of different ethnic groups.”
It was then said that the Communist leadership agreed that “strengthening Tibetan infrastructure, helping it foster competitive industries while ensuring environmental protection are the means to achieve marked improvement in living conditions and more social cohesion.”
The solution to the Tibet issue was to “maintain national religious policies and promote patriotism in Tibet.”
Easier said than done!
The leadership then promised more support “to provide assistance to Tibet by pairing its cities with flourishing coastal cities and state-owned enterprises.”
At that time, it looked like an announcement for the Tibet Work Forum.
It was not!

A Serious Issue
It however raises a serious issue.
Why did the leadership need a full meeting of the Politburo to ‘prepare’ a Tibet Work Forum to be held 4 weeks later.
It is unheard of.
Remember on August 5, Xinhua published a news item titled, “Do Not Wait Anymore; No Meetings in Beidaihe.” The official news agency then said, “sources have speculated on the themes of the Beidaihe meeting this August and whether or not one will be held.”
But Xinhua argued: “Not long ago, the CCP Central Politburo met twice, on July 20 and on July 30, which was unusual. They have already discussed ‘The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan’, the CCP Fifth Plenary Session, economic strategies, the ‘anti-tiger campaign’, and other important issues.”
The article, though it does not mention the Tibet issue, asked: "Is it meaningful, necessary, or possible to talk about these issues again in Beidaihe several days or ten days later?”
So why to have a Politburo meeting on Tibet (even presuming that ‘Tibet’ was just a topic on the agenda of the July 30 meeting) to discuss the same things 4 weeks later?
A plausible explanation could be that there was some disagreement amongst the leaders on the Tibet policy to be followed during the next 5 or 10 years.
The air had to be cleared (or the positions fine-tuned) before calling for the much larger forum which is usually attended by 200 or 300 cadres.
It is a fact that since the time of the so-called ‘liberation’ in 1950-51, the leadership has always been sharply divided on the direction to take as far as the fate of the Roof of the World is concerned.
The July 30 Meet probably decided on a middle-path approach, which translated, as mentioned on my earlier post, in a dual objective to improve the ‘local conditions’ and ‘beef up social cohesion’ and rejecting the Dalai Lama's 'Middle Way' approach.
In President Xi’s words: “Key efforts in the work for Tibet should be spent on ensuring national unity and consolidating ethnic unity, with realizing long-term and comprehensive social stability."
‘Stability is an obligatory task’ hammered Xi, who affirmed that China “should firmly take the initiative in the fight against separatism, vowing to crack down on all activities seeking to separate the country and destroy social stability.”
Between the 30-July Politburo meeting and the Forum two important visits took place in Tibet, probably to take a final decision on the directions to be taken.

Visit of Vice-Premier Wang Yang in Tibet
Apart for the meeting chaired by Sun Chunlan on August 18, to discuss the preparations for the visit of a delegation from Beijing to Tibet on the occasion of the 50th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the Tibetan Autonomous Region, two other members of the Politburo visited Tibet during the week preceding the Forum.
Wang Yang, Vice Premier of the State Council ‘inspected’ Lhasa and Nagchu.
The report says that he “investigated relevant work [linked to] poverty alleviation and development, animal husbandry, tourist industry and meteorological services.”
In Ngachu, Wang visited a meteorological station.
According to Xinhua, he expressed the Party’s “respect to those who work in these remote areas, high mountain regions and islands [sic] and persistently contribute to meteorological knowledge.”
The Chinese new agency commented: “The hardworking and plain-living spirit of plateau meteorological members also touched Vice Premier Wang Yang.”
The Vice-Premier declared: “Tibet can take pride in the advancements and achievements of meteorological cause; it has impressed and inspired us all.”
He spoke of the importance of meteorological observations on the plateau for weather forecasts and climate prediction for downstream regions: “to ramp up the research of meteorological science and technology along with climate change, in view of Tibet’s location, carries a significant implication.”
But Wang did not go only to study the weather patterns.
In Lhasa, he spoke of the implementation of different programs “to vigorously alleviate poverty by developing modern agriculture, animal husbandry as well as tourism development.”
This is an indicator of the direction in which the Forum would go a week later. Wang spoke again and again of “effective measures to further the implementation of poverty alleviation, remove poverty, accelerate the transformation of agricultural development, promote the construction of modern agriculture and animal husbandry, and the healthy development of tourism in Tibet”.
He added that this could help the region to find a solid foundation for the sustained and healthy economic and social development of Tibet by 2020.
Wang Yang was in Tibet between August 13 to 15.
On August 14 afternoon, Wang Yang chaired a forum and listen to the work report of the Tibetan Autonomous Region.
He later stressed the need to thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s vision for the Tibet work and ensure the timely realization/implementation of the Party’s objectives.
And of course, Wang Yang mentioned the ‘stability’ of Tibet: “the whole region of Tibet strives for national unity and oppose separatist, your efforts are commendable,” he says.
He concluded: ‘We are proud of the great achievements made for the development of Tibet, Tibet has a precious natural and cultural heritage; it should be cherished.”
This was a prelude to the 6th Tibet Work Forum.

Another important visit: CMC's Vice-Chairman Xu Qiliang
On August 13, Xinhua reported that Xu Qiliang, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), visited Tibet (and Chongqing). He urged the military forces posted for defense of the border [with India] “to make down-to-earth efforts and follow the path to building a strong army”.
Xu had a call for strengthening education and urged the army to make “efforts to thoroughly clean up the negative influence caused by corrupt former military leaders [Generals] Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou.”
He pleaded for better management and control of the borders “as well as innovation with ideological work at military forces to shore up the morale of servicemen for border defense.”
He requested senior officers and army leaders to strictly observe the political discipline and rules, adding that modern ideas and elements should also be used in the management of the military.
Xu’s exhortation will be reflected in Xi’s speech during the Forum.
Xi reiterated his theory about the ‘border areas’; he said that “a series of strategies that have been in effect during the 60-plus years of governing Tibet," he then cited the theory that "governing border areas is the key for governing a country, and stabilizing Tibet is a priority for governing border areas.”
Tibet’s border areas are India’s frontiers; let us not forget this.
And of course,  “the Central Government did not in the past, nor is now and will not in the future accept the [Dalai Lama's] Middle Way solution  to the Tibet issue,” said an article penned by an official the United Front Department after the Forum.
The hard line has prevailed once again.

Tibet: cherish unity with China as if it is your own eyes, says Xi

The Sixth Tibet Work Forum was held in Beijing on August 24 and 25.
It was presided over by President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).
According to Xinhua, addressing the Forum, Xi spoke of the promotion of the economic and social development of Tibet.
Xi Jinping asked for more efforts to promote economic growth and all-round social progress in Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas.
He also vowed to take sustainable measures and continue preferential policies for the region(s).
Note that the Tibetan Autonomous Region and Tibetan-inhabited areas in four provinces (Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan) have been clubbed as far as Beijing’s policies for Tibet are concerned.
Xi said that Tibet “has entered ‘a critical stage’ toward fulfilling the country's goal of building a moderately prosperous society in a comprehensive way.”
He promised that special financial, tax and investment policies will continue to be in place in the future.
The Chinese President asserted: “Development, which aims to improve living conditions for various ethnic groups and beef up social cohesion, should be advanced in a prudent and steady manner, and all measures taken should be sustainable.”
The dual objective of improving the ‘local conditions’ and ‘beefing up social cohesion’ is pervading the speech of the President who urged “bettering basic public service and adopting targeted measures to alleviate poverty, solve key problems which lead to poverty and improve living conditions for the impoverished as soon as possible.”
It is an admission that poverty among the local population in Tibet still exists, 60 years after the 'liberation'.
Xi explained further: “More active employment policies should be carried out to help residents of all ethnic groups to walk out of their farms and pastors to work in towns and companies and start businesses.”
‘All ethnic groups’ refers mainly to Tibetans.
It is clear that in the years to come, farmers and nomads will be encouraged to migrate to the city. Is it really a sustainable policy?
Xi also said that, “efforts should also be made to incorporate education on ‘socialist core values’ into courses in schools at various levels, popularize the national commonly-used language and script, and strive to foster ‘Party-loving and patriotic builders and successors of the socialist cause’.”
Will the Tibetans believe this one?
Imposition of Putonghua could have severe backlashes on the Tibetan plateau. The unrest in March/April 2008 has already been a sign of rejection of the imposition of a new culture with Chinese characteristics.
Premier Li Keqiang was also present at the Forum.
He affirmed that “it will be an arduous task for Tibet to build a ‘moderately prosperous’ society over the next five years.”
This is a component of the Chinese Dream, so dear to President Xi.
For the Chinese Premier, his government “will give top priority to improving people's livelihood, alleviating poverty and increasing employment among Tibetans.”
He urged the TAR government to make more efforts to boost education, medical care and social security in the Tibet region.
Li believes that the key for Tibet is “to sharpen its self-development capability through promoting its specialty industries, infrastructure construction, and environmental protection.”
But more infrastructure construction means more roads, airports, railway lines and dams.
For India, it is certainly a cause of worries.
Premier Li added: “Efforts should be given to the development of agriculture and animal husbandry and related processing business, making Tibet an important tourism destination in the world, and promoting commerce and trade with South Asia to boost the Tibetan economy."
Tourism is certainly the best way for China to change forever the Tibetan landscape and finish off the Tibetan cause for greater autonomy (or independence).
Li further noted: “Moreover, the building of local infrastructure should be sped up, including transportation networks, water conservation projects, power-grids, among others.”
Li pledged to increase financial aid and preferential policies to Tibet.
Once again, it is ominous for Tibet’s southern neighbour (i.e. India), which develops the borders areas at a snail speed.
The entire politburo, including the seven members’ Standing Committee were in attendance (apart from Xi and Li, Yu Zhengsheng, Zhang Dejiang, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli were present).
Yu Zhengsheng, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference pleaded with those who attended the Forum “to learn from the spirit of the meeting and work out effective measures to boost the development of Tibet.”
During the weeks to come, the ‘Tibetan’ leaders will return to Lhasa and speech after speech will hold fort about the ‘Spirit of the Sixth Work Forum’.
The true ‘spirit’ of the Forum was however expounded in another article published by Xinhua.

Ethnic Unity with Chinese Characteristics
The news agency released another report of the Forum entitled ‘Xi stresses unity for Tibet, vows fight against separatism’.
The entire article focuses on China’s main worry , namely ‘instability’ of the Land of Snows, or in other words, the ‘nationalist’ aspirations of the people of Tibet.
According to the official news agency, President Xi Jinping spoke of “national and ethnic unity as the key plans for Tibet, vowing a focus on long-term, comprehensive stability and an unswerving anti-separatism battle.”
It seems to be the main issue for the present Chinese leadership.
Xi stated: “Key efforts in the work for Tibet should be spent on ensuring national unity and consolidating ethnic unity, with realizing long-term and comprehensive social stability as an obligatory task."
It shows that China is still trembling, more than 60 years after Tibet was ‘liberated’.
‘Stability’ is an obligatory task.
Xi affirmed that China “should firmly take the initiative in the fight against separatism, vowing to crack down on all activities seeking to separate the country and destroy social stability.”
If China had done so much for Tibet (as Beijing always pretends), why does it remain so nervous?
Is it an admission that the policies decided during the previous 5 Tibet Work Forum have failed?
The answer is probably ‘Yes’.
Xi reiterated his theory about the ‘border areas’; he said that “a series of strategies that have been in effect during the 60-plus years of governing Tibet," he then cited the theory that "governing border areas is the key for governing a country, and stabilizing Tibet is a priority for governing border areas.”
Borders often come in the Chinese discourse.
Does it mean that China is afraid of India?
After all, Tibet’s main border is with India.
Or is it a pretext to bring more dual infrastructure on the Tibetan plateau?
Then comes the crux of Beijing’s’ policy towards Tibet for the next 5 to 10 years. Xi called for “a comprehensive and accurate implementation of the Party's policies concerning ethnic and religious affairs as well as efforts to increase a sense of identity for people from various ethnic groups with the motherland, Chinese nationality, Chinese culture, the CPC and socialism with Chinese characteristics."
It is rather frightening and it can only lead to further resentment amongst the ‘ethnics’, especially when Xi urged “the promotion of Marxist values in people's views on ethnics, religion and culture.”
Are the Tibetan traditional Buddhist values compatible with the doctrine of Karl Marx (at least the way Marx’ philosophy has been implemented in China and Soviet Union)?
President Xi added that “authorities must draft long-term plans and rely on local officials and ordinary people to ensure persistent stability for Tibet and neighboring provinces.”
For the purpose, Party’s officials should “keep pace with the CPC Central Committee in their thoughts and deeds, telling them to ‘cherish unity as if it was their eyes’.”
Will Tibetans one day cherish unity with Han Chinese as if the latter were their own eyes? It may never happen.
In the meantime, Xi exhorted: "We should help people of various ethnic groups understand, support, appreciate and study from each other.”
He called for educational campaigns to promote ethnic unity and a sense of belonging to the same Chinese nationality.
Can it work?
The Chinese President is particularly keen to apply his recipe to the monastery: “efforts should be made to promote patriotism among the Tibetan Buddhist circle and effectively manage monasteries in the long run, encouraging interpretations of religious doctrines that are compatible with a socialist society.”
Are Marxism and Buddhism compatible, is the central question?
It would have perhaps been more productive, if the Chinese leadership had taken the opposite view: “to encourage an interpretation of Marxism which is compatible with Tibetan religious doctrines.”
What about Marxism with Buddhist characteristics?
It may work in Tibet!
But can the present leadership understand this?
Probably not!
The common man in China may.

Sun Chunlan chairs meeting for ‘Tibet celebrations’
A few meetings were held to prepare for the Forum.
I mentioned a few on this blog.
According to Xinhua, on August 17, Sun Chunlan, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of the United Front Work Department (UFW), chaired another meeting to discuss the preparations for the visit of a central delegation to Tibet on the occasion of the 50th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the Tibetan Autonomous Region.
The meeting was held not only in view of the ‘celebrations’, but also to clear the way to the Sixth Tibet Work Forum.
During the meeting, Sun Chunlan gave a speech about the ‘achievements’ of the Party in Tibet and the importance of the 'celebrations'.
She said that this “grand event was expected by people of all nationalities in Tibet, and it was also very important for the national people's political life.”
Obviously, as it sealed the annexation and dismemberment of old Tibet.
The UFW minister further stated: “During the past 50 years, under Central Government's correct leadership, national people’s full support and the joint efforts of people of all ethnic groups in Tibet, Tibet has undergone enormous changes. Holding the 50th anniversary celebrations of TAR is very significant to encourage the people of Tibet to closely unite around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the general secretary, boost morale and confidence together with people across the country to achieve a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and realize the long-term stability in time.”
Nobody can deny that Tibet has changed, but whether ‘ethnic’ Tibetans are convinced about Sun’s declarations is another issue.
If Sun was right, why should Xi Jinping have focused so much on ‘stability’ during the Tibet Work Forum?
The meeting chaired by Madam Sun was held in preparation of the Forum (called barely 5 days later).
Apparently, during her meeting, Sun affirmed that the celebrations “should adhere to a grand and warm, frugal and pragmatic principle so that the cadres and masses of all ethnic groups in Tibet can broadly participate and share the joy.”
It is not clear how the celebrations can be ‘grand and frugal’ at the same time, but we will not to wait long to know.
Sun’s conclusion was that the celebration will “show the great advantages of socialism and vitality of the regional ethnic autonomy, and it will also demonstrate the glorious history and great achievements of revolution, construction and reform performed by Tibetan people led by the Party.”
Once again, why this obsession about ‘stability’ is the above declarations are true?

The New Strategic Importance of Tibet?

The Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar Economic Corridor

It is very rare for China to mention the ‘strategic importance of Tibet’, but it is what an article posted on the portal China Tibet Online recently did.
It explains: “Tibet’s strategic status is of great importance. It is an important national security barrier; an important ecological security barrier; an important reserve base for strategic resources; an important base for agricultural products; an important area for the protection of China’s unique ethnic culture and a popular tourist destination.”
It then develops each of these strategic areas.
Why to mention this now?
One of the reasons is the forthcoming 6th Tibet Work Forum which will decide the direction Tibet takes during the next decade.
The ‘opening’ of Tibet towards Central and South Asia will be probably one the main decisions taken during the Forum.
Tibet could become central to the promotion of President Xi Jinping’s pet project, ‘One Belt, One Road’.
The article calls Tibet a ‘strategic focal point’ for the scheme.
Why?
China Tibet Online elaborates: “The ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategy involves comprehensive opening up to the outside world and establishment of lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity”
It quotes an article already published on the same portal in March: "The visions and actions of promoting the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road". With 18 provinces directly involved, Tibet, adjacent to the ‘One Belt, One Road’, certainly holds particular significance, argues the article.
By integrating Tibet to the grandiose project, Beijing believes that it can bring some prosperity to the region and more importantly, the corollary of ‘prosperity’, ‘stability’.
The piece in China Tibet Online first mentions the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC).
The author reminds its readers that in May 2013, Premier Li Keqiang put forward the BCIM-EC proposal during his visit to India, “asking that India, Bangladesh and Myanmar to respond positively.”

The Old Stillwell Road

The article adds: “The proposal holds great significance for the deepening of friendly relations between the four countries and in driving the joint development of the three economic areas - South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Tibet is an important passage to South Asia and a crucial part of the ‘corridor’.”
But it is not clear how the BCIM-EC will connect to Tibet.
Possibly via Kunming and the Western part of Yunnan province, but it is a long detour to reach Tibet.
The Stillwell Road, from Arunachal to Burma, skirts Tibet, further there is no land port between Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh which would permit the trade to flourish in this remote part of the world.

The Tibetan, Qiang and Yi Corridor
Then the article speaks of the ‘Ethnic Tibetan, Qiang and Yi culture industry corridor’: “Historically, the ethnic Tibetan, Qiang and Yi culture industry corridor has been crucial for the migration and communication of many ethnic groups. It possesses a unique natural environment and rich cultural resources; it is an important historical and cultural deposition zone; and the pattern of development and construction of culture in the region hold a special status. The core area is located at the junction of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai.”
A Chinese scholar who wrote a dissertation on the Tibetan-Qiang-Yi Corridor (‘Du Yao Mao’), thus described the area, “[it] comprises the Hengduan Mountains which located in the southeast of Tibet plateau and the high mountains and valleys area among six paralleled rivers of Min River, Dadu River, Brahmaputra, Jinsha River, Lancang River, and Nu River, as well as the adjacent area between Yunnan, Sichuan and Tibet. It’s a natural corridor for the ancient Diqiang, tribes to migrate from northwest to south where some minorities from Zang-Mian of Han-Zang language family live in, such as Zang, Qiang, Yi, Lisu, Bai, Naxi, Pumi, Dulong, Nu, Hani, Jingpo, Lahu and so on.”
Even if China develops that ‘mythic’ corridor, it is not clear once again how it will be linked with the New Silk Road. It might be a branch of the ‘Belt’.

The Source of Rivers Ecological Protection Zone
Strategically and environmentally more important is Tibet, ‘the Source of Rivers Ecological Protection Zone’
China Tibet Online affirms: “The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is not only the source of some of Asia’s major rivers, such as the Yangtze, Yellow, Lancang-Mekong, Ganges and Indus, but it’s also one of the world’s most concentrated areas of biodiversity, so its ecological status is very important. In recent years, due to the combined effect of global warming and human intervention, the ecological environment at the Yangtze and Yellow River source areas has shown signs of serious damage and deterioration. The Source of Rivers Ecological Protection Zone was established to restrict environmental degradation and to restore and conserve the ecological environment.”
It might be one of the policies which will be decided during the Tibet Work Forum, but once again it does not seem to directly affect the ‘One Belt, One Road’ project.

Shangri-la in Yunnan Province

The Shangrila Circle
Then the ‘Shangri-La eco-tourism circle’ is mentioned. Shangri-la is one of the favorite tourist destinations of Eastern Tibet (in today’s Yunnan province).
According to the article, the ‘circle’ includes the triangular border areas of Tibet, Sichuan and Yunnan. Once more it is more an environmental project which is certainly important for the Tibetan plateau. It says: “It is the Yangtze River’s downstream soil and water conservation area and an important ecological barrier for a number of industries. It plays an important role in the modernization and sustainable development of China. It has already been listed as a key national tourist development area and has become a popular destination for domestic and foreign tourists.”
Here too nothing concrete about Xi’s project to link Central Asia and Europe to the mainland.

A Corridor to South Asia?
The last part of the article is more interesting for South Asia as it deals with ‘China-India and China-Nepal border trade zones’.
It says: “Tibet has already opened border ports in Zham [Dram], Burang [Purang], Gyirong [Kyerong], Riwo and Nathu La. These ports are located on the overland route to South Asia and follow the same basic conditions as a comprehensive free trade zone or a border economic cooperation zone. They are the main distribution areas for trade along the China-India and China-Nepal borders.”
While Dram, Purang (the trade via Lipulekh in Uttarakhand also transit via Purang), Gyirong Kyerong and Riwo are all land ports with Nepal, Nathu-la, was opened for trade between India and Tibet in 2006.
If Beijing is serious about linking Tibet with South Asia, more will be required to ‘open’ the borders which is presently limited to Sino-Indian ‘petty’ trade at Nathu-la. Lipulekh-la and Shipki-la (HP).
The article mentions the recent reopening of the Sino-Indian border at Nathu La Pass to Indian pilgrims traveling to Tibet on pilgrimage: “This news was greatly received by Indian pilgrims.”
This will not change anything in the trade and will not bring any serious boost to the New Silk Road.
The conclusions of the article on the strategic location of Tibet are rather misleading in the present circumstances: “Some of the regional strategies mentioned above have already become national strategies; others have entered academic discussion or debate. Tibet is an important player in the history of the ‘Southern Silk Road’, ‘Tang-Tubo Ancient Road’ and the ‘Tea Horse Road’. It is a vital communication hub for the adjacent provinces and autonomous regions on the ‘One Belt, One Road’ strategic belt, including Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan and Yunnan. It is also an important gateway for exchange with South Asian countries, such as India, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan and others.”
The fact is that Beijing is not ready to open land ports such as Demchok and the Karakoram pass in Ladakh, Niti-la, Mana-la in Uttarakhand, Kibutu or Tuting in Arunachal Pradesh. Why in the present circumstances, speak of ‘opening of the ‘new silk road’ to South Asia?
It is more a propaganda gimmick, to test the Indian waters and see Dehi’s reaction.
It is however true that Nepal mainly through Dram and Kyirong land ports will be flooded with Chinese tourists and Chinese goods.
But this is one-way traffic, it will not create places of cultural, spiritual and trade exchanges like the Old Silk Road did.
In other words, it is doubtful if South Asia can benefit from the project.

China to soon decide the fate of Tibet

Sun Chunlan in Lhasa

All ingredients seem in place for holding a 6th Tibet Work Forum, which will decide the fate of the Roof of the World and the Tibetan people for the next 5 to 10 years.
If nothing unexpected occur in China in the next few weeks, the meeting should be held soon.
Less than two months ago, I mentioned an article, which appeared in the official Chinese press, it was titled: “Guess what? 6th Tibet Work Conference may be convened this year, netizens say.”

The announcement of the holding of a Sixth Conference (or Forum) on Tibet Work by ‘netizens’ was clearly a propaganda gimmick, but the Forum is no doubt forthcoming.
The previous Forum was held in Beijing in January 2010.
Before that, four Tibet Work Conferences were organized in 1980, 1984, 1994 and 2001.

What is a Work Forum on Tibet?
It is the conference during which a new Tibet policy is decided.
It is attended by several hundreds of officials, including all the members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo. The article on the Chinese website affirmed: “Now people are eagerly anticipating the Sixth Tibet Work Conference.”

What are the ingredients for the new Tibet Work Forum?
From time to time, I have mentioned few of them on this blog:

1. 50th Anniversary of the TAR
   This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region.
2. Li Keqiang’s Work Report at the NPC
   On March 5, during the Third Session of the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC), Chinese Premier Li Keqiang affirmed that the celebrations should be organized for the 50th anniversary in the government work report and that it is important to preserve the still clean environment of the plateau.
   Beijing will probably offer a 'gift' to Tibet for the 50 years. It is ominous.
   
3. Important visits to Tibet
   To prepare the ground for a new Forum, at the time, the NPC was seating in March, the State media explained that from November 2014 to March 2015, “many in the central leadership as well as various government departments went to Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan provinces to conduct research and make inspections, including: Yu Zhengsheng, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Du Qinglin, Vice Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, and Sun Chunlan, minister of the United Front Work Department of CPC Central Committee as well as leaders of the Ministry of Education, the State Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Water Conservancy and Ministry of Agriculture.”
   Note that the Tibetan-inhabited areas were covered by the ‘inspection tours’.
4. White Paper of the Development Path in Tibet
   Then, the State Council Information Office (China’s Cabinet) released a White Paper, ‘on the development path of Tibet’.
   One of the characteristics of the new White Paper was a violent attack against the Dalai Lama, at a time when many in China realise that the Tibetan leader is undoubtedly the best bet if Beijing wants to find a solution to the Tibetan issue.
   But for Beijing: “The wheels of history roll forward and the tides of the times are irresistible. …Any person or force that attempts to resist the tide will simply be cast aside by history and by the people.” The WP asks the Dalai Lama to ‘put aside his illusions’ about talks on Tibet’s future status. For Beijing, the Dalai Lama has little understanding of modern Tibet, but keeps ‘a sentimental attachment to the old theocratic feudal serfdom’.
5. The United Front Work Conference
   A Conference of the United Front Work Department (UFW) of the CPC Central Committee was held from May 18 to 20 in Beijing. Addressing the UFW delegates, President Xi Jinping asked the authorities to befriend and recruit more non-CPC intellectuals and representatives. According to Xinhua, Xi vowed to “develop the widest patriotic united front” to support ‘the great Chinese renaissance’. He concluded by exhorting the cadres to be “sincere, modest and clean so that they can gain respect from non-CPC members and help them work together with the party.”
   Xi Jinping during the UFW conference spoke of the “the positive influence that religious people and believers have on social and economic development.”He pleaded with the UFW officials to make ‘active efforts’ to incorporate religions in socialist society, adding that ‘religions in China must be Chinese’.
   Even the Tibetan religion should be ‘Chinese’!
6. Sun Chunlan's comments
   At the time of the UFW conference, Madam Sun Chunlan, head of the UFW Department (and member of the Central Committee’s Politburo) met with some Tibetan Buddhist monks, who had just graduated as Geshe Lharampa. China Tibet Online reported that the awards ceremony was held at Tibetan Buddhism College of China in Beijing on May 20, 2015. Sun said that this Tibetan Buddhist advanced academic degree system is “an important measure in fostering Tibetan Buddhist religious believers to love their country and religion, as well as adapting religion to socialist society.”
   In other words, training geshes with ‘socialist and Chinese characteristics’! Madam Sun believed that the new geshes “would cherish and honor their award, help religious people, promote social development and the fine Tibetan Buddhism tradition of loving their country and religion,” and of course “observe and uphold the law, protect the country and its people, promote economic development and social and religious harmony.”
   A bit frightening!
7. A White Paper on Human Rights
   In its introduction to a new White Paper on Human Rights, the State Council says:"It has been a long-cherished ideal of mankind to enjoy human rights in the full sense of the term. Since this great term -- human rights -- was coined centuries ago, people of all nations have achieved great results in their unremitting struggle for human rights. However, on a global scale, modern society has fallen far short of the lofty goal of securing the full range of human rights for people the world over. And this is why numerous people with lofty ideals are still working determinedly for this cause.”
   It continues thus: “Under long years of oppression by the ‘three big mountains’ -- imperialism, feudalism and bureaucrat-capitalism -- people in old China did not have any human rights to speak of. Suffering bitterly from this, the Chinese people fought for more than a century, defying death and personal sacrifices and advancing wave upon wave, in an arduous struggle to overthrow the ‘three big mountains’ and gain their human rights.”
   No comment is required.
8. Appeal to the Diaspora
   A few days after the UFW Conference, China Tibet Online asked a pertinent question (for Beijing at least) : “do overseas Tibetans count among the ‘three types of people’?” mentioned by Xi during the UFW Conference.
   The Party seems now open to the return of the Diaspora to their 'motherland': “all patriots belong to one family …patriotism can be shown at any time”. These ‘patriotic Chinese’ should be given “the freedom to come and go, letting bygones be bygones” adding that “expatriate Tibetans are welcome to come home.”
   It sounded like an open invitation to the refugees to return, ‘let the bygones, be bygones’.
   How many will take the ‘socialist’ bite in the present repressive atmosphere is another question. 
9. The Chinese Panchen Lama briefed by Xi Jinping
   Xinhua reported that Xi Jinping gave ‘an audience’ to the Chinese-selected Panchen Lama Gyaltsen Norbu at Zhongnanhai in Beijing on June 10. The meeting was ‘very appropriate’ says Xinhua, because it showed that the Party “has consistently given a high level of attention to Tibet.” It also indicated, says the news agency, “the great importance that the Central Committee attaches to the religious work,” affirming that Xi Jinping has “set an example for the rest of the Party members by taking the lead in uniting the religious figures.
   If one looks at the picture published by Xinhua, apart from Xi, three other members of the Politburo were in attendance (Yu Zhengsheng of the Standing Committee, Sun Chunlan, the UFW head and Li Zhanshu, director of the General Office of the Party); also present was Jampa Phuntsok (the senior-most Tibetan in the Communist Party).
   Why such a rare lineup?
   Apparently Gyaltsen Norbu needed to be briefed.
   In Beijing’s game plan, Gyaltsen Norbu is destined to play a central role. He has been especially selected by Beijing from a family of faithful Communist cadres from Nagchu prefecture, while the boy selected by the Dalai Lama as the Panchen Lama, has for the past 20 years been languishing under house arrest.
   Is Gyaltsen Norbu not fully convinced? it is certainly a possibility.
10. Visit Madam Sun Chunlan in Tibet
    China Tibet Online reported that Sun Chunlan, member of the Political Bureau and boss of the UFW Department conducted an inspection tour in the Tibet Autonomous Region from June 15 to 18. During her visit, she pointed out that “in order to continue on a development path with both Chinese characteristics taking account of the Tibetan local features, Tibet should develop industries with comparative advantages, strengthen its environmental protection, value education and employment, improve the social security system across urban and rural areas, and improve production and livelihoods for people of all nationalities. Tibet should also respect the religious beliefs and customs of people of all nationalities and continue to strengthen people’s affinity with the Chinese nation, Chinese culture, the Communist Party, and the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”
    This is probably the agenda for the forthcoming 6th Tibet Work Forum.
    During her stay in Tibet, Sun visited the Potala Palace and Jokhang Temple in Lhasa, the Tashilhunpo Monastery in Shigatse and Dram (Zhangmu) at the Nepal border, where the recent earthquake left of lot of destruction.
    Sun mentioned that Xi Jinping had ‘warmly’ received the Panchen Lama, which reflected, according to her, the ‘growing importance’ of the Panchen Lama for Beijing as well as ‘the expectations he [Xi] has for Tibetan Buddhism.'
11. After the Brief
    Gyaltsen Norbu after his ‘successful briefing’ by Xi and his colleagues of the Politburo stated: "We should have strict management and education systems in monasteries, and it is especially important to strictly deal with social chaos in religious circle according to the law." He was speaking at a meeting of the Standing Committee of the 12th National CPPCC on June 16.
    According to China Tibet Online, a website affiliated to Xinhua, the Chinese Panchen Lama’ made four proposals:
    First, the departments of religious affairs should investigate the phenomenon of false religious people who illegally hold religious activities, should unblock channels for reporting [denouncing?], and establish a mechanism that will be effective over the long term.
    Second, public security forces deal with those who undergo illegal activities that already constitute crimes according to the law.
    Third, religious groups should advocate the prohibition of religious people from using religion to accumulate wealth and to prohibit non-religious people from posing as clergy and cheating others.
    Fourth, the law protects the rights and interests of religious groups, holy sites, and normal educational and religious activities.

All these are the ingredients which show that the ground work has been done for the 6th Tibet Work Conference.

Is The Tibet Issue Dead?

My article Is The Tibet Issue Dead? appeared in Swarajya Magazine.

Here is the link...

Beijing believes that only ‘development’ can bring ‘stability’ in the TAR and Tibetan-inhabited areas of Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai; in such a scenario, Beijing solves the Tibetan issue and the Dalai Lama becomes irrelevant.

A few days before Prime Minister Modi departed for Beijing, the news agencies announced that a scheduled meeting between BJP president Amit Shah and the Dalai Lama would not happen. The encounter, to be held in Dharamsala, was cancelled after a message from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said that it would be ‘highly inappropriate’. A senior BJP leader later clarified that the cancellation of meeting did not change India’s relationship with the Tibetan spiritual leader.
This and other recent happenings raise a serious question: where is the Tibetan issue at?
A few months ago, The Global Post published a story about the Dalai Lama, asking: ‘is the Tibet issue dead?’. It mentions South Africa’s denial of a visa to the Tibetan leader to attend the 14th world summit of Nobel peace laureates in Cape Town. The article argues: “The Dalai Lama is losing friends all over the place as the world undergoes a geopolitical realignment.”
It is a fact that today China has become so powerful that most heads of state or government think twice before receiving the ‘simple monk’. Further, Beijing seems more assured that it is in control of the situation on the Roof of the World.
It perhaps explains why in December 2014, the Buddhist leader told the BBC that it “would be better that the centuries-old tradition [of having a Dalai Lama] ceased at the time of a popular Dalai Lama.” He hinted that a Dalai Lama ‘found’ by China could be extremely unpopular with the Tibetan people. The 80-year old monk added: “There is no guarantee that some stupid Dalai Lama won’t come next, who will disgrace himself or herself. That would be very sad.”
The present Dalai Lama is not stupid and he knows perfectly well that the Rule by Incarnation, in other words, the rule of the Dalai Lamas over Tibet, is a flawed system of governance.
It has been unsatisfactory for several reasons.
First and foremost, one is never sure that the choice of a new reincarnated lama is the right one. During some troubled periods of Tibetan history, the Mongols or the Manchu dynasty did use their influence for imposing ‘their’ choice, through the Golden Urn system or by other ways. The selection of the correct candidate has always been a major problem in Old Tibet. This is true not only for the Dalai Lamas and the Panchen Lamas at the top of the hierarchy, but also for ‘local’ hierarchs who presided over a county, a province, a school of Buddhism, a monastery or even over a particular lineage.
Another reason that made the system unworkable is the gap of 20 odd years, between the death of a Lama and the time when his reincarnation is able to take over the job; during the interregnum, the nation is left without governance, or it depends on regents who often have more knowledge of mundane matters than good governance.
In the past, this led to very difficult transitions, to say the least.
If the system is not terminated (by the Dalai Lama himself), it is certain that there will be 2 Dalai Lamas a few years after the death of the present hierarch: one enthroned by the Party in Beijing and one recognized by the Tibetans. It is what has happened with the Panchen Lama (one is promoted by the Party, while the one recognized by Dharamsala is under house arrest for the past 20 years somewhere in China). The temptation is too strong for political leaders (especially in Beijing) not to choose ‘their’ own candidate.
This explains why the Dalai Lama, who installed an elected leader in 2011 to replace him for temporal matters, told the BBC: “The Dalai Lama institution will cease one day. These man-made institutions will cease.”
The Communist Party was obviously furious with the Dalai Lama’s declaration. The New York Times speculated: “That would confound the Chinese government’s plans to engineer a succession that would produce a putative 15th Dalai Lama who accepts China’s presence and policies in Tibet.”
Zhu Weiqun, a former interlocutor of the Dalai Lama’s Envoys, told the media the Tibetan leader will have no say over his own reincarnation: “Decision-making power over the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, and over the end or survival of this lineage, resides in the central government of China.” The Party is omniscient, even about ‘reincarnation’!
Zhu further affirmed: “The 14th Dalai Lama has taken an extremely frivolous and disrespectful attitude toward this issue.”
One can understand that Beijing is furious to suddenly see its dream of having a Dalai Lama anointed by the Party evaporating in the mist of the Roof of the World.
But there is more, China is today sure of itself. The State Council (China’s Cabinet) recently released a White Paper (WP) ‘on the development path of Tibet’. It is not the first WP published by the Chinese Government on Tibet; in 1992 already, the State Council tried to justify its position about ‘ownership and human rights’. The characteristic of the latest avatar is best described by the Central Tibetan Administration in Dharamsala:
“[it] tries to belittle His Holiness the Dalai Lama by questioning his sincerity in dealing with China. His Holiness admired around the world and revered by the Tibetan people, does not need any certificate on his motivation from the Chinese Government.”
Why such a violent attack on the Tibetan leader, when many in China realize that he is undoubtedly the best bet if Beijing wants to find a solution to the Tibetan issue? But reading through the longish paper, it is clear that for the communist regime, everything is fine and wonderful on the Roof of the World. Nonetheless, Beijing warns the Dalai Lama: “The tides of the times are irresistible. …Any person or force that attempts to resist the tide will simply be cast aside by history and by the people.”
The WP asks the Dalai Lama to ‘put aside his illusions’ about talks on Tibet’s future status. For Beijing, the Dalai Lama keeps ‘a sentimental attachment to the old theocratic feudal serfdom’.
The WP’s timing was obviously ‘synchronized’ with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), but also with the holding of a Sixth Forum on Tibet Work.
What is a Work Forum on Tibet?
It is the large Party gathering where a new Tibet policy is decided. It is attended by several hundreds of officials, including all the members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo.
The previous Forum was held in Beijing in January 2010. Before that, four Tibet Work Fora were organized in 1980, 1984, 1994 and 2001.
In 2010, it was decided to make Tibet a giant tourist attraction park; last year alone, 15 million mainlanders visited the Disneyland of Snows.
President Xi was recently quoted as saying that “to govern the country well, we must govern the border areas first, and to govern the border areas well, we must stabilize Tibet first.”
During the forthcoming Tibet Forum, the ‘One Belt, One Road’ scheme (New Silk Road) will be extended to Tibet; Beijing believes that only ‘development’ can bring ‘stability’ in the TAR and Tibetan-inhabited areas of Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai; in such a scenario, Beijing solves the Tibetan issue and the Dalai Lama becomes irrelevant.
The Sixth Work Forum on Tibet is certain to make the Land of Snows an important economic and touristic hub for the New Silk Road project. One of the collaterals will be the construction of the Tibet-Xinjiang railway through the disputed Askai Chin area (this will have serious implications for India).
Where is the place of Dalai Lama this scheme?
Nowhere! But all is not lost.
The Modi Sarkar has certainly not said its last word on the Tibet issue; another silver lining is that despite all its assurance, not to say arrogance, Beijing is nervous.
Take the Joint Statement, signed after Narendra Modi’s meet with his Chinese counterpart; about the Kailash yatra it says: “The Indian side appreciated the support and cooperation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the local government of Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China to Indian pilgrims for the Kailash Manasarover Yatra.”
Why does Beijing always speak of ‘Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China’? Delhi never speaks of ‘Tamil Nadu of the Republic of India’ or ‘West Bengal of India’. Perhaps it shows that Beijing is still unsure about the legal ground of its ‘presence’ in Tibet.
Nervousness is not a sign of the ‘stability’ mentioned by President Xi Jinping. It is perhaps why many analysts believe that China may ‘crack’ in the not too far future.
The dies of history are not fully cast as yet.

Beijing to offer more 'gifts' to Tibet

More tourists for Tibet

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Xi'an, capital city of Shaanxi Province, as the first leg of his high profile visit to China, analysts wonder if he would speak about Tibet with the Chinese leadership.
Apparently, he did not!
The ‘T’ word appears only once in the Joint Statement, when the Kailash yatra is mentioned:

The Indian side appreciated the support and cooperation by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the local government of Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China to Indian pilgrims for the Kailash Manasarover Yatra (Gang Renpoche [sic] and Mapam Yun Tso Pilgrimage). To further promote religious exchange between the two countries and provide facilitation for Indian pilgrims, the Chinese side would launch the route for the Yatra through Nathu La Pass in 2015.

Though it is a separate issue, it is worth noting that Beijing always says, ‘Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China’.
Delhi never speaks of ‘Tamil Nadu of the Republic of India’ or ‘West Bengal of …’. It perhaps shows that Beijing is still unsure about the legal ground of its ‘presence’ in Tibet.
But apart from this reference, nothing on 'T'.
The Brahmaputra is not even mentioned, except to say:

The Indian side expressed appreciation to China for providing flood-season hydrological data and the assistance in emergency management. The two sides will further strengthen cooperation through the Expert-Level Mechanism on the provision of flood-season hydrological data and emergency management, and exchange views on other issues of mutual interest.

The names of the Yarlung Tsangpo/Siang/Brahmaputra and the Sutlej are not cited. Does it means that Delhi has got some assurance from Beijing that China will not go for mega-dams on the trans-boundary rivers? It is possible!

An unusual comment
An interesting remark during Modi’s speech at Tsinghua University: the Prime Minister said that both nations needed to ensure that their relationships with other countries did not become a concern for each other: “If we are able to deepen mutual trust and confidence, we will also be able to reinforce each other's efforts of connecting Asia with itself and the rest of the world."
The South China Morning Post quotes an analyst saying: “Modi's comment was somewhat unusual as diplomatic visitors to Beijing normally called for further consolidation of bilateral ties.”
Fang Tien-sze, a South Asia study expert and a Taiwanese former diplomat in India explains: “By asking the mainland to reconsider its approach in dealing with India, Modi meant to say there is a need for Beijing to work hard with New Delhi to really find a way to resolve their border disputes if the two sides are to closely cooperate to form the Asian Century."
It is true that Beijing needs to 'work hard' to fill up the trust deficit.

A gift for Tibet?
In the meantime, Beijing is thinking of ‘what kind of gift to give to Tibet its 50th anniversary?’ China Tibet Online elaborates:

The Year 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region, and it is reported that the Sixth Conference on the Work of Tibet may also be convened this year. Since the central government has always presented gifts to Tibet on major celebrations, we may wonder what kind of gift it will send to Tibet this year.

Will it be the genuine autonomy demanded by the Dalai Lama?
Don't be so hopeful!
The Chinese ‘Tibetan’ website reminds us that in March 2015,

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in the Government Work Report that China is a unified and multi-ethnic country, and it is important to uphold and improve the system of the regional ethnic autonomy. It is also important to provide more support to the development of ethnic minority areas, to protect and develop ethnic cultures and characteristic towns in order to promote exchanges among various ethnic groups.

It recalls Year 2011 which marked the 60th anniversary of the so-called peaceful liberation of Tibet (Beijing does not say that it resulted in more than 1 million casualties). At that time, a delegation from Beijing, “presented the Tibetan people with essential life products, including stainless steel pressure cookers, handheld solar-powered torches, and portable solar-powered televisions.”
The website justifies the generous ‘gifts’ thus: “Although people living in developed areas might not consider these items, for those living on the high plateau, especially rural residents in remote areas, the gifts are very practical and useful.”
It was indeed useful, especially if the Tibetans were last without pressure cookers in the Middle Kingdom.

A new gift for Tibet
I have already mentioned China's next gift to Tibet on this blog, the Roof of the World will made an integral part of the New Silk Road. 
Is it better than a stainless pressure cooker for the common man on the high plateau? Not certain!
China Tibet Online asserts: "The ‘One belt, One road’ strategy is seen as an opportunity to accelerate Tibet’s development. Gifts from the central government to Tibet also include policy support in public finance and banking.”
A Xinhua article in March had quoted Xiao Gang, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, who proposed some "policies that would support an equity shares market, a bond market, and a futures contract market in the Tibet Autonomous Region as well as efforts that would broaden financing channels for businesses, support funding for small-scale businesses, which will play a role in supporting the development of a futures contract market in Tibet.”
It further commented that to promote the development of a capital market, Tibet needs to improve its own economic capacity.
Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission had proposed a solution to ‘improve’ Tibet’s economic capacity: “In order to improve the banking institution in Tibet and provide credit resources, China must focus on developing Tibet’s local tourism and culture, Tibetan medicine and pharmacology, and characteristic industries such as agriculture and animal husbandry.”
Instead of 15 million Han tourists, Tibet will then become a full-fledged tourist resort; the largest amusement park in the world.
The article says that China must further expand the ‘Horseback Bank’, the ‘Tent Bank’, and mobile servicing vehicles "according to the particular characteristics of Tibet."
In other words, Beijing will bring ‘development' to the countryside, to the farmers and nomads (and bring tourists along).
The conclusion of the apparently well-informed website is that these gifts will be beneficial “for accelerating Tibet’s leapfrog development and for promoting the building of a moderately prosperous society in Tibet.”
It even cites statistics from the TAR’s Taxation Bureau: in 2014 Tibet’s GDP reached 92 billion yuan, (15 billion US dollars), an increase of 10.8 percent over the previous year.
As Tibet prepares to ‘celebrate’ the 50th anniversary of the foundation of the so-called Autonomous Region, Xinhua admits: “Tibet is the country’s only region with vast concentrated poverty areas.”
What was the point of ‘liberating Tibet, if it so?
It reminds me of the words of the 10th Panchen Lama who, a few hours before his mysterious death in 1989, asked “what was the point of liberating Tibet 30 years ago, if Tibet remains so poor.”
Two points are clear: China will increase the number of Chinese tourists visiting the Roof of the World (and for the purpose will tremendous increase the construction of ‘dual-use’ infrastructure in Tibet) and then Tibet will become an integral part of the ‘One Road, One Belt’ project, so dear to President Xi Jinping.
Can all this be considered as ‘gifts’ to the Tibetan people?
To settle the border issue with India, Beijing will probably wait for Tibet to be ‘stabilized’?
Tibetans will crawling under ‘gifts’, but will they be satisfied?
After all, the 'stabilization' depends of the happiness of the 'masses', isn't it?

Can China alleviate poverty in rural Tibet?

Du Qinglin during a previous visit to Tibet

A few weeks ago, I quoted an article published in China Tibet Online which hinted at a 6th Tibet Work Forum being held very soon.
The piece was titled: “Guess what? 6th Tibet Work Conference may be convened this year, netizens say.”
I then commented: “For China, it is new that netizens are aware of ‘State Secrets’ such as holding crucial meetings …and their timings!”
At that time, I guessed that the move was to prepare the ground for the TAR celebrations (and the new Tibet Work Forum).
The State media had asserted that from November 2014 to March 2015, “many in the central leadership as well as various government departments went to Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan provinces to conduct research and make inspections, including: Yu Zhengsheng, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Du Qinglin, Vice Chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, and Sun Chunlan, minister of the United Front Work Department of CPC Central Committee.”
Du Qinglin was recently on the (Tibetan) roads again.
From April 27 to 29, he visited Gannan (Kanlho) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in today’s Gansu Province. It was his 4th visit to Tibet.
Two years ago, I had written on this blog: “In September 2012, the appointment of Ling Jihua as the boss of the CCP's United Front Work Department was reported by the Chinese press. Ling then replaced Du Qinglin. I thought that after his retirement, President Hu Jintao wanted to keep his fingers in the Tibetan pie through his protégé, Ling.
Since then, Ling has been arrested, probably because of the Ferrari accident of his son in which 2 Tibetan girls died.
In 2013, I wrote: “The interesting part of it is that though Ling replaced Du Qinglin, the latter now seats in his place in the Secretariat of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee. That is a hot seat.”
Who is Du Qinglin?
Born in November 1946 in Jilin Province, Du joined the CPC in March 1966. He graduated from the School of Economics and Management at Jilin University with a major in national economic planning and management. He received a postgraduate education while in service and was awarded the degree of Master of Economics. Apart from his important job in the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, Du is also vice chairman of the 12th CPPCC National Committee.
Du is a important man in the Party and probably close to Yu Zhengsheng, the CPPCC's Chairman.
After he visited the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan and Yunnan in 2013, I had guessed: “Probably, the Standing Committee of the Politburo wanted his views on the prevailing situation in these regions.”
Xinhua had then commented: "Du urged them to serve local people with emotion and responsibility. He called for the cultivation of a number of capable and passionate cadres to enhance the Party's public support."
Du was back in Tibet at the end of April.

Recent visit to the Gansu Tibetan Research Institute

Du visit to Tibet
Chinese Tibet Network said that during his stay in Kanlho, Du Qinglin stressed that "to accurately understand and implement new ideas and new requirements on the precise poverty alleviation, [one needs to] identify the crux of the difficulties and the Tibetan poverty alleviation work."
Du Qinglin visited an 'impoverished' village of Xiahe County' and he had 'face-to-face exchanges with the masses of farmers and herdsmen, grassroots cadres, monks'. He got "a detailed understanding of the lives of the masses, the grassroots organization construction, and implementation of policies that benefit the temple management."
He discussed 'with the cadres of state, city, county' and stated that "to eradicate poverty in Tibet, the goal must be clear, accurate, feasible, reliable."
Du also stressed “the most formidable task in reaching the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is in the countryside, and he particularity mentioned the economic development in the countryside is in the impoverished areas, especially the Tibetan areas.”
He added: “Industries with comparative advantages must be developed, infrastructure must be improved, and more efforts must be made to promote public service in order to achieve targeted poverty reduction in these areas.”
He reminded the local cadres that 2015 “marks the fifth year of poverty alleviation in Tibet Autonomous Region and the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Qinghai, Sichuan, Yunnan and Gansu provinces.”
It was in June 2010 that the State Council in Beijing convened the Work Conference on Poverty Alleviation and Development in Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas in the four provinces (Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu and Qinghai). Let us recall that the last Tibet Work Forum was held in January 2010.
Du said that the June 2010 Conference (or Forum) proposed to link Tibet and the Tibetan-inhabited areas 'as one impoverished area' in order to promote its development through a comprehensive approach.
By the way, it is one of the long-pending demands of the Dalai Lama.
Du was not shy to admit that: “Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas in the four provinces are the biggest poverty-stricken areas in China, including one autonomous region and four provinces; 19 cities (prefectures); 151 counties due to poor natural conditions, a fragile ecology and underdeveloped economy.”
This clearly gives some indications in which direction the 6th Tibet Work Forum will go when it meets: poverty alleviation in rural areas, using a scheme like the New Silk Road to bring wealth to Tibet.
The China Tibet Online article quotes another Chinese publication, the Financial News: “Since 2012, Tibet and Tibetan-inhabited areas in the four provinces have been actively implementing measures to reduce poverty and achieve steady growth through various loans. By the end of 2014, their financial institutions granted micro-credit loans totaling 12.56 billion yuan (2.02 billion US dollars), a 47.66 percent increase year on year.”
The article cites the highway to Metok which was open to traffic in 2013: “ending the county’s history as the ‘only island' on the plateau.”
This road is the most strategic road on the Tibetan plateau as it leads to the Indian border (Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh). Contrary to what the Chinese propaganda says, it is not purely to alleviate the poverty of the local Tibetans that the road was built. The PLA were clearly the main beneficiaries.
China Tibet Online gives the usual figures:  “Data shows that there are more than 70,000 kilometers of highway in Tibet, with a county-level passenger traffic rate of 98.6 percent, and a township-level passenger traffic rate of 56 percent.”
Once again, it is probably another indication in which direction China wants to go while dealing with the Tibetan issue. The TAR and ‘Tibetan-inhabited areas in the four provinces’ are mentioned: Beijing wants to focus on the development of the education and put more energy for poverty reduction.
The publication gives an example: “Each student at the Number One Primary School in Dechen County of Yunnan Province can receive 3,000 yuan (483.3 US dollars) per year in subsidies. Room and board is free. Currently the rate of enrollment of school-age children for primary and middle schools in Dechen Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is close to 100 percent.”
The article also mentions other social help for “Tibet [TAR] and Tibetan-inhabited areas in the four provinces [which] have rapidly developed institutions that care for the elderly."
It points out that in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in Gansu Province, "there are currently 31 nursing homes that provide more than 1,000 beds. There are already 333 elderly living in those homes, the majority of whom are ethnic Tibetans. There are currently more than 4,000 elderly in the prefecture who receive governmental support.”
China Economic Net shows the way Beijing has decided to go for Tibet when it affirms: “Tibet met the target of achieving economic growth rate of 11.7 percent in the first half of 2014, higher than 7.4, the average growth rate of other 23 provinces in the country. If this rate could be kept, it would be hopeful that Tibet and four Tibetan-inhabited areas would meet the goal that by 2020 poverty is basically reduced, and the per capita increase rate of farmers’ and herders’ income surpasses the national average."
Du's visit to Kanlho (he probably visited the Labrang monastery) clearly shows that in the years to come, Beijing will try to improve the economic situation in rural areas on the entire Tibetan plateau, not just in the TAR.
Why was it not done all these years, is another question.
For the purpose, the same recipe will be used than in Lhasa, Shigatse or Nyingtri; in a first stage, infrastructure will be developed; highways, airports, railway lines will be constructed and then tourists will be invited bringing along consequent revenues for these remote 'impoverished' areas.
Another scheme to help ‘alleviate’ poverty will be to link Tibet to Nepal (through Kyirong landport), Pakistan (through Karakoram highway and Pakistan Economic Corridor) and Xinjiang (as a gate to Central Asia and the main New Silk Route).
Where are the Tibetans in this scheme?
Nowhere, but they may become richer.