Will 2021 be China’s & Xi’s annus horribilis?

My article Will 2021 be China’s & Xi’s annus horribilis? appeared in The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle

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Has Beijing succeeded in intimidating India with its brazen info warfare?

As the end of the year approaches, it is customary to look at the past twelve months and try to draw conclusions about the closing year’s happenings.
2020 will undoubtedly remain as an awful year, not only for India, but also for humanity and one country (or more correctly one regime) is behind this planetary misery: China and its Communist Party.
As a World Health Organization (WHO) team prepares to travel to Wuhan in January 2021 to investigate the origins of Covid-19, you can be sure that the WHO will not find any clues. In an interview with the BBC, Prof Shi Zhengli (the ‘bat woman’) who has been associated with the P4 ‘French’ lab in Wuhan, recently denounced “unsubstantiated claims that the coronavirus leaked from her laboratory.”
But even without speaking of Wuhan, when the BBC team tried to visit the remote district of Tongguan, in Yunnan, to enquire about Prof Shi’s field work, they could not reach the place: “Plain-clothes police officers and other officials in unmarked cars followed us for miles along the narrow, bumpy roads, stopping when we did, backtracking with us when we were forced to turn around. We found obstacles in our way, including a ‘broken-down’ lorry, which locals confirmed had been placed across the road a few minutes before we arrived.”
The fact remains that many whistleblowers have now disappeared and it will be difficult to prove anything as the lab has been cleaned of all traces of mishaps.
Even the conservative National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) of France admitted that “The origin of SARS-CoV-2 is being seriously questioned”.
In an interview, eminent CNRS virologist Étienne Decroly discussed the various hypotheses, including that of an accidental leak from a laboratory.
When asked if the virus could have escaped from a laboratory, the professor said: “The hypothesis cannot be ruled out, given that SARS-CoV, which emerged in 2003, has escaped from laboratory experiments at least four times.”
One factor which has been ignored (or conveniently forgotten): the Chinese authorities gave the control of the ‘Top-Secret’ lab in Wuhan to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) when the world was still unaware of the coming pandemic. The high technology transferred to China was done under the garb of Indo-French advanced scientific collaboration; the ‘Top Secret’ label ensures that nobody is allowed to seriously inquire why France left the project after 2017.
However, we know that at the end of January 2020, a Chinese PLA general took over the civilian Institute in Wuhan; Maj Gen Chen Wei, a researcher at the Military Medical Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences, became the laboratory ‘in charge’; by March 2020, the lady general claimed to have found the first vaccine against the virus. All this raises many serious questions which very few are ready to discuss openly.
In February already, a group of Chinese scholars led by Botao Xiao of the South China University of Technology wrote a paper for the Natural Science Foundation of China; it dealt with “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
After searching around the Seafood market in Wuhan, said to be the epicenter of the outbreak, they identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus. The first one, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention is located 280 meters from the market where the virus is supposed to have emerged. The scientists found that “surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were a source of pathogens.” It was not a proof, but a strong lead.
The second laboratory, the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is located 15 kilometers from the seafood market; this is the ‘French’ lab taken over by Gen Chen Wei.
Xiao and his colleagues concluded: “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk bio-hazardous laboratories.” The study quickly disappeared from the Net.
It is in these circumstances that China decided to ‘teach’ India a lesson.
From all available information today, Gen Zhao Zongqi, the Commander of the Western Theater Command (WTC) facing India, managed to convince Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission that China could advance in a few areas in Ladakh at little cost for Beijing.
Zhao had already masterminded the Doklam incident in 2017. In May, the PLA began to move in Ladakh, but it soon turned to be a ‘misadventure’ for Beijing; the Chinese generals had not planned for Delhi’s strong reaction.
The good news is that on December 18, Zhao has been replaced by a rather unknown officer who has never set foot in the WTC; he has no experience of the Indian border. It is too early to say what it means for the future negotiations in Ladakh, but it probably indicates that Beijing will be more ‘flexible’. If confirmed, this is certainly a good thing for India as Zhao has been the main hardliner.
Retrospectively, what Xi has achieved in 2020?
The virus has made the world acutely aware of the dark sides of China; the image of the totalitarian Party will not improve in 2021.
Today Xi finds himself in lose-lose situation, as he has realized that he can’t bully India in Ladakh. Will the Darbuk–Shyok–Daulat Beg Oldi Road that Gen Zhao tried to stop, be shelved by India, the answer is ‘No’. Will India drop its suzerainty claims over Gilgit Baltistan? No.
Gen Zhao Zongqi will certainly not get a seat in the Central Military Commission as he expected to. Has China gained some strategic advantages in Ladakh? Hardly. And in August, the ridges, South Pangong tso on the Kailash range, were lost to the PLA.
Has Beijing succeeded in intimidating India with its brazen Information Warfare? Absolutely not. Has Xi’s prestige been enhanced after the Ladakh episode? Certainly not; on the contrary it showed the PLA’s limitation faced with a determined adversary. Economically too, Beijing has lost a lot, especially with Indian banning number of Chinese Apps and the decision to not award big contracts to China.
One could add many issues to the list.
All this makes me think that 2021 will an Annus Horribilis for China and its news Great Helmsman. It would only be justice …in the meantime, can the WHO go to the bottom of the origin of the virus? Probably not.

The role Chinese army played in the pandemic

My article The role Chinese army played in the pandemic appeared in Mail Today/DailyO


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From Day One, a PLA unit has been on the central stage of what the Communist Party of China called the 'People's War' against the 'demon' virus.
We all know that the world will be different once the coronavirus crisis is over; very few countries will be spared. China, the origin of the virus, whether it came from the wet market or the Wuhan Institute of Virology, will never be the same too; more importantly, the Middle Kingdom will never be perceived as before. Further, Beijing is bound to face tremendous economic difficulties. Will Beijing be able to find innovative solutions and the Communist regime be able to adapt to the new realities? It remains to be seen.

Handpicked by Xi
In this context, it is interesting to look at the role played by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during the pandemic and at the future of the Chinese Armed Forces, which could become far more aggressive in view of the general economic slowdown. From Day One, a PLA unit, the Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF), has been on the central stage of what the Communist Party of China called the 'People's War' against the 'demon' virus.
There is no doubt that the Communist authorities were lax, to say the least, during the first weeks; it is only on January 23, more than one or two months after the apparition of the first cases of coronavirus pneumonia, that the Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) troops entered the stage. The Force was created on January 11, 2016 as part of Xi Jinping's Dream of a rejuvenated China with a modern powerful and efficient Army; according to Xinhua, it "comprises the support forces for inventory and warehousing, medical services, transport, force projection, oil pipelines, engineering and construction management, reserve assets management, and procurement." Coincidentally, it is based in Wuhan. Interestingly, on October 18, 2019, President Xi Jinping, also Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), flew to Wuhan to attend the first JLSF Party Congress. According to Xinhua, Xi Jinping encouraged the JLSF delegates and other senior officers stationed in Hubei province "to faithfully perform their duties and contribute to fulfilling the dream of a strong military." The tasks for the JLSF were already clearly defined and once the COVID-19 broke out, it was soon implemented on the ground; in fact, it became a mega military exercise for the Force. The PLA immediately made the headlines by building the Huoshenshan 1000-bed field hospital in 10 days.
During the entire crisis, China has demonstrated an amazing opacity, whether it is about the origin of the virus or the number of infected cases and casualties, while Xi's presence remained central to the propaganda. At a press conference on March 2, Maj Gen Chen Jingyuan, Director of the health division of the Logistic Support Department made an astounding statement; he announced that the pneumonia outbreak did not cause cases of infection among the involved PLA personnel, while it improved the combat readiness of the Chinese military instead. One can believe the second part of the statement, but the first part can only make one smile.

Lack of transparency
Significantly, it was from the command centre at Huoshenshan hospital, that on March 10, Xi announced the 'Victory'. Five weeks later, Xi signed an order of commendation to honour all the military personnel who participated; the order said: "The whole military has resolutely carried out the decisions and commands of the Communist Party and the CMC and shouldered heavy responsibilities, making outstanding contributions to winning the people's war against the epidemic." Commendation is one thing, but what will happen to PLA post coronavirus crisis is another; the Armed Forces may be cut.
The Global Times already announced that the military budget will be hit …only mildly. The budget figure is expected to be announced at China's annual two sessions, to be held at the end of May: "The defense budget may grow more slowly than in 2019, rising to about 1.27 trillion yuan ($179 billion), or it may fall to only 1 trillion yuan," some knowledgeable analysts predicted. If it is so, this projection is not mild, it is more than a 20% official cut. Will this be taken 'mildly' by the PLA victors? It is doubtful.
In recent weeks, China has shown a renewed aggression, whether it is in the South China Sea or on the Indian borders. On April 18, Sky Map, the Chinese public service platform working under the National Surveying and Mapping of China published new digital maps. At one point, Sky Map updated the map information and 'inadvertently' disclosed China's borders' claims, particularly in the area that they called 'South Tibet', i.e. the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh.
Was this new aggression necessary at this point in time? In the meantime, the infrastructure in Tibet on India's borders has restarted on a war footing, even while public places, such as the Potala Palace in Lhasa, are still closed.

Another Doklam ploy?
On April 7, Xinhua reported that the construction on the last two of the 47 tunnels on a 435-km railway linking Lhasa and Nyingchi, near the Indian border of Arunachal Pradesh, had been completed "marking huge progress for the mammoth project." One tunnel is 11.5 km long, while the other is 8.7 km. Examples could be multiplied, particularly an electricity mega project near the Ladakh border in Western Tibet employing 4,000 workers and the PLA aggressive posture in Northern Sikkim or Upper Subansiri district. Historically, when the PLA does not get its 'dues', it starts diverting its aggressiveness towards external targets; in which case, a new Doklam is always possible.

The Wuhan lab mystery deepens

My article The Wuhan lab mystery deepens appeared in Mail Today/DailyO

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President Xi Jinping is being questioned within the Party for his handling of the crisis.
An issue has been coming in the news repeatedly during the last few days; the Institute of Virology of Wuhan. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged Beijing to give access to the laboratory for US scientists: "We are asking the Chinese Communist Party to allow experts to get into that virology lab so that we can determine precisely where this virus began," Pompeo told Fox News.

Questions of origin
Asked his opinion about the Covid-19 originating from the lab, US President Donald Trump had earlier said that "it seems to make sense," adding that "it was a matter of active investigation within his administration." After analysing the coronavirus's genome, most experts believe that it was not consciously engineered by humans, but it could be the outcome of a technical negligence in the laboratory in Wuhan. The Washington Post reported that US officials who had visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology "sent diplomatic cables to Washington as early as January 2018 warning about safety and management weaknesses at the lab, and stated that the facility's work on bat coronaviruses created a pandemic risk."
On February 23 this year, The South China Morning Post mentioned that the virus may not have originated from the seafood market. The Hong Kong newspaper quoted a study from Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The team, led by Dr Yu Wenbin found that the virus had spread within the Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, however, the study suggested that the virus was introduced from outside the market: "The study concerning whether Huanan market is the only birthplace of SARS-CoV-2 is of great significance for finding its source and determining the intermediate host, so as to control the epidemic and prevent it from spreading again," said the study.
While taking a more balanced stand, French President Emmanuel Macron told The Financial Times that it would 'naïve' to suggest China had dealt better with the crisis, he added, things 'happened that we don't know about'. There are reasons for his moderation; France had in the past been actively involved with the lab. After the SARS hit China in 2003, Jiang Zemin the Chinese President contacted one of his friends, Dr. Chen Zhu, who had been trained at Saint-Louis Hospital in Paris; China needed help to study the viruses.

French partnership
A year later, President Jacques Chirac instructed his Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin to work out a Sino-French collaboration with Dr Chen; an accord was sealed in October 2004, and soon the idea of a P4 level laboratory took shape. Designed by French experts and started in 2011, "this cutting-edge tool is a central element in achieving the 2004 intergovernmental agreement to fight against emerging infectious diseases," explained an article in Radio France. At the start, the Wuhan P4 laboratory benefited from the support of the Jean-Mérieux Laboratory in Lyon, considered one of the best.
Many were uncomfortable in France, as China refused to explain what had happened with the P3 biology laboratories that were funded by the Raffarin government after SARS. "The French have been chilled by the lack of transparency of the Chinese," says Antoine Izambard, author of the book Dangerous Liaisons [with Beijing]. According to Radio France: "Fifteen specialized French SMEs lent their support to build the laboratory." In 2015, Alain Mérieux left the co-chairmanship of the Joint Commission supervising the lab. Mérieux explained: "I am giving up the co-chairmanship of P4, a Chinese tool. It belongs to them, even if it was developed with technical assistance from France."

Additional concerns
France still believed collaboration was possible. On February 23, 2017, when Bernard Cazeneuve, then Prime Minister of France inaugurated the 'P4' laboratory in Wuhan, he declared: "France is proud to have contributed to the construction of the first high biological security 'P4' laboratory in China." French Minister of Health Marisol Touraine announced that 50 French researchers would take residency at the P4 in Wuhan for five years and Paris would provide technical expertise, as well as training to improve the laboratory's level of bio-safety; but French researchers could never go. China had what it wanted, the lab. The cooperation between Jean Mérieux Institute in Lyon and Wuhan lab never really started. Alain Mérieux admitted that: "there has been no meeting of the Franco-Chinese committee on infectious diseases." The Chinese lab worked without the outside supervision of foreign experts.
The day Cazeneuve inaugurated the P4 lab, the review Nature published an article on the Wuhan Institute: "Some scientists outside China worry about pathogens escaping, …[giving] a biological dimension to geopolitical tensions between China and other nations." The magazine admitted there were concerns surrounding some of these high tech labs.
Surprisingly in January 2020, a Chinese PLA general took over the Institute in Wuhan. Maj Gen Chen Wei, a researcher at the Military Medical Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences, became responsible for the research. The lady general is said to have found the first vaccine against the virus on March 16.
All this raises questions which few will discuss. The stakes are high for Beijing. It doesn't want to appear to be the one who spread the virus, and President Xi Jinping is being questioned within the Party for his handling of the crisis. We shall not know the truth for years.

Coronavirus and the Human Species

More than 2,500 years ago, Gautam Buddha preached the Four Noble Truths; suffering or dukh was central to his teachings, but he also found the path that leads to the end of dukh.
The Covid-19, which emanated from Wuhan in China, has bought immense dukh to the human species, and it may not be over.
But while it has been a tragedy for many on the planet, it has also brought sukh, happiness to the rivers, flora, fauna …and even some human beings.
A pertinent query: will we, the humans, learn something from the blow or will everything start again like before?
The confinement has forced many of our species to have better quality relationship with our dear ones, children or parents; something which had been forgotten for years or for certain, had never been known.
The planetary developments of the last few weeks have strangely brought both sukh or dukh, though the post-confinement era may witness hard times for hundreds of millions.
But at present, WhatsApp groups and software like Zoom have become over-popular (in the latter’s case, it was rightly banned by Delhi for Government’s offices, when it was found that some of the traffic was discretely transiting via China).
I personally joined one of these groups with my French family with whom I hardly communicated in normal times. In the course of an exchange, a six-year old nephew was asked if the confinement was not too hard for him; he took no time to answer, “I would like it to last 1000 years.”
For the first time in his life (with the exception of holidays), he had both his parents with him from morning to evening; of course, he had to do some home work, but his teacher was his own mom, what a delight even for home work! And his father was here too to play, watch a cartoon with him and help him to put on a disguise. He will certainly remember all his life the ‘good days’ of the confinement.
It does not mean that there is no hardship around and that to remain stuck in a small flat is pure sukh. It is where the tragedy is so special, it has struck deeply the human species alone, infecting so far more than two and half million human beings and killing nearly two lakh persons. Can humans realize that we are perhaps the most fragile (and the most foolish) species on the planet?
Many other species are doing well, not only the wild species which were once sold on the wet market in Wuhan, which may now survive, but also all these animals seen in viral videos exploring the great empty cities of the humans.
Many rivers are doing well too.
Some scientists noted that the water quality of Ganga has gone through such a change that it is in some cases fit for drinking. It was reported that the Ganga water had become good for Achaman (ritual sipping) in Haridwar.
In both Haridwar and Rishikesh, water quality has seen tremendous improvements with industries closed, people confined at home and no tourists.
The main reason is a 500 percent decrease in total dissolved solids (TDS), industrial effluent, sewage from dharamshalas, hotels and lodges. We had conveniently forgotten that religious tourism pollutes too.
South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People, an NGO doing remarkable work on environment, suggested that it may be the way forward for pollution control mechanisms in the country. To do so, studies will have to be undertaken in a number states including Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka, among others; the rivers involved include the Sutlej, Buddha Nullah, Cauvery, Ulhas, Waldhuni, besides Ganga and Yamuna.
Another question comes again and again, when the virus is dead and gone, will the human species start again destroying the planet, can men, like the Buddha did more than two millennia ago, men analyze the tragedy and identify what is the cause of dukh and find the way to a greater sukh?
Another small improvement: constant nasty political fights between the Majority and Opposition has somehow get subdued (this is valid for all nations); instead of playing a constructive role to built their nation, the opposition usually plays a shooting game, arguing black when the government says white and vice-versa; on its part, the government is more than often not interested in the opposition, as it has got the Mandate to govern for the next few years. The virus seems to have brought a relative truce and it is a positive development; can one day the only objective of our political leaders be the well-being of the citizens, more particularly the less privileged sections of the species?
Another remark; the Coronavirus seems to be atheist. Several religious congregations thought their respective gods or messiahs were protecting them, it has not been the case; whether in Nizamuddin, which sent the virus spreading throughout India; in Mulhouse, where a religious congregation has been the main hotspot in France; in some Jewish temples in Israel where the priests thought that they were invincible. Many other cases could be cited like a Christian preacher in Louisiana, USA defying rightly worried authorities or those in Pakistan who held a gathering of nearly a quarter of a million in late February, despite warnings of coronavirus; they all became ‘super-spreaders’. Does this mean that the Covid-19 does not like religious extremism or exclusivism? Nobody can answer today, but the fact remains that nobody has been spared.
The ultimate question is: is the human able to become more human?
The time has perhaps come for the human species to think of its past deeds, it is also vital to the future of the planet?
In the meantime, since January the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has engaged in a major propaganda campaign, doing everything it could possibly do to cover up what made coronavirus become a global pandemic.
The CCP Central Propaganda Department is aggressively attempting to avoid getting the blame for what it has done.
But a backlash has already started. Julian Reichel, the editor of the popular German Bild magazine wrote an open letter to President Xi Jinping: “China is known as a surveillance state that infected the world with a deadly disease. That is your political legacy.”
China has to realize that the time is not for aggressiveness, but for introspection; today, the virus has raised the question of the survival of our peculiar species.

Coronavirus: What about the Lab in Wuhan?

My article Coronavirus: What about the Lab in Wuhan? appeared in Rediff.com

Why did the Chinese military take over the lab in Wuhan in end January?
Did something go wrong? Claude Arpi glances at the mystery surrounding the origin of the coronavirus.

China started information warfare to prove to the world that COVID-19, which originated in China, does not have its origin in China.
Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson of the ministry of foreign affairs in Beijing, tweeted that the US army had brought the dreaded virus to Wuhan.
Wang Yi, China's state councilor and foreign minister, phoned his Indian counterpart Dr S Jaishankar that the virus should not be called 'Chinese', as it would stigmatise the country and would be detrimental to 'international cooperation'.
The stakes are high for Beijing: externally, it does not want to appear as the bad guy who spread the virus all over the planet with the drastic consequences seen today (more than 1.7 million affected, more than one lakh casualties, while three billion human beings live under confinement, all this with unpredictable and incalculable economic and social implications), but also internally, where General Secretary Xi Jinping's is more and more questioned within the Chinese Communist arty.

The Real Issue
The objective of Beijing's information warfare exercise is to make the world forget to look for the real origin of the virus, something vital to avoid the recurrence.
Interestingly, a group of Chinese scholars led by Botao Xiao of the South China University of Technology wrote a paper in February for the Natural Science Foundation of China; it dealt with 'The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus'.
After searching around the seafood market in Wuhan, said to be the epicentre of the outbreak, they identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus.
The first one, the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control & Prevention is located 280 meters from the market.
The scientists found that 'urgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were a source of pathogens.'
It is not proof, but a possibility to be studied fully.
The second laboratory, the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is located 15 kilometres from the seafood market.
It was recently in the news when Dr Chen Wei, a lieutenant general in the People's Liberation Army, took over the management.
Xiao and his colleagues concluded: 'Somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk bio-hazardous laboratories.'
'Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from the city centre and other densely populated places,' Xiao and his colleagues recommended.
All this means that more serious and independent studies need to be undertaken to find out more about the origin of the 'international' virus.

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Maj Gen Chen Wei with Sun Chunlan, member of the CCC Politburo

Maj Gen Chen Wei

The Lab in Wuhan

The Lab in Wuhan

Inauguration (February 2017)

First injection of the new vaccine to gen Chen Wei

Shi Zhengli, senior scientist working on bats in the lab in Wuhan

Why China's figures can't be trusted

My article Why China's figures can't be trusted appeared in Mail Today/DailyO


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China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases 'by a factor of 15 to 40 times'.

A few days ago, Boris Johnson's government was furious with China's handling of the coronavirus; some UK officials even warned that Beijing will face a 'reckoning' once the Covid-19 crisis is over. Mail on Sunday reported that scientists had warned the UK government that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases 'by a factor of 15 to 40 times'. At that time, China had reported some 80,000 cases of coronavirus.

Old tricks
While the US national security adviser declared that Washington had no way of knowing if Beijing's figures were accurate, US President Donald Trump said that China's coronavirus statistics seemed "a little bit on the light side".
The President's comments came after a senior Republican lawmaker cast doubt on Beijing's data and Bloomberg News spoke of a classified US intelligence report which concluded that China had under-reported the total cases and casualties due to the virus. Though he had not read the intelligence report, Trump observed: "The numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side - and I am being nice when I say that - relative to what we witnessed and what was reported." He admitted that during his recent phone call with President Xi Jinping, he discussed the spreading of the virus, "but not so much the numbers".
Today, many believe that the Covid-19 is the greatest 'natural' tragedy which has befallen China (and the world) since World War II.
However, one should never forget the Great Leap Forward (GLF), a human-made tragedy which recorded 45 million deaths in the Middle Kingdom.
The Great Famine, which followed the GLF, lasted from 1958 to 1962, and "to this day the ruling Communist Party has not fully acknowledged the degree to which it was a direct result of the forcible herding of villagers into communes under the GLF”, wrote Frank Dikötter, the author of Mao's Great Famine.
In The New York Times op-ed, Dikötter wrote: "Historians have known for some time that the GLF resulted in one of the world's worst famines. Demographers have used official census figures to estimate that 20 million to 30 million people died. …In all, the records I studied suggest that the GLF was responsible for at least 45 million deaths."

History of falsehood
In 1958, Mao Zedong had declared that China would overtake Great Britain in 15 years (later on he changed it into 2 to 3 years); the way to do was by setting up thousands of People's communes; it was to be a disastrous political project.
One of the main reasons for the failure and subsequent tragedy was the forging of the figures. In 1957, the Communist Party started to export excess foodgrain to show off to the world how great the Communist regime was; at the same time the production of grain had been quickly decreasing throughout China, due to Mao's faulty agricultural policies.
But to please the Great Helmsman and the Party, the local satraps kept increasing the figures and announced bumper crops; according to Wikipedia, "In 1960 state granaries would have 50 billion jin [traditional units of measurement] of grain, when they actually contained 12.7 billion jin. …the grain yield in Gansu declined by 4,273,000 tonnes from 1957 to 1961. This series of events resulted in the illusion of superabundance, in which the Party believed that they had an excess amount of grain they could access; but, the Party was also unaware that crop yields were in fact lower than average."

Little transparency
In October 1959, the propaganda magazine China Reconstructs showed farmers with the caption "Celebration of the 1958 bumper harvest at a people's commune in Anhui province." In 1960, other posters read: "The People's commune is good, happiness will last for ten thousand years." Falsifying the figures did not stop. 40 years later, a junior agriculture official lied to Premier Zhu Rongji about some grain harvest figures; then the honest Prime Minister realised how serious the problem of false statistics in China was.
China Youth Daily reported: "Premier Zhu inspected a grain-purchasing station in Nanling county, Anhui province and was delighted to find it full. However, China Central Television revealed that the head of the station had borrowed a substantial amount of grain from other factories ahead of the visit to convince Mr Zhu that he had fulfilled his required purchasing duties." The official had only met half the required purchase quota and had refused to buy more grain. During his tenure, Zhu tried to stop this Chinese 'disease', but never succeeded.
Still, there is no transparency in China. In 2018, Xiang Songzuo, a professor at the Renmin University School of Finance, wrote that China's GDP growth would only be 1.67% and not 6.5% as stated by Beijing. According to Chinascope website, Xiang warned, "Chinese have become addicted to playing with debt and high leverage financing. This is a mirage and will collapse." Ditto for China's Defence Budget, evaluated to be twice the official figure. There is nothing new about the forged figures in Wuhan, where the number of casualties froze after the Emperor's visit on March 10.
The question for the Communist leadership is, can China become a responsible, transparent, modern State, or does Beijing want to continue with the old ways?

Just a ‘small thing’

My article Just a ‘small thing’ appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer.
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Despite all the propaganda trotted out by Beijing, some scars may remain for decades, bringing the most drastic changes to China’s image in the world

Moustapha Dahleb, the Chadian doctor and author, gave one of the most touching descriptions of  COVID-19, the pandemic that is presently plaguing the earth. In his blog titled, “Humanity Shaken by a Small Thing (Un Petit Machin)”, he argues, “A small microscopic thing called coronavirus is upsetting the planet. Something invisible has come to make its law. It questions everything and upsets the established order. Everything is put back in place, otherwise, differently.”
Among other collaterals, “the Small Thing” has triggered two wars on a scale not seen since World War II and the subsequent Cold War between the Western and Soviet blocks. The first war is against the “Small Thing” itself as to how to stop its worldwide spread and find a vaccine. China and the US, the world’s two super powers, are competing to win the battle. In China, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been working harder than anybody to find a solution. Is it because the PLA was no stranger to the first spread of the virus? It may take years or even decades to know the truth. Meanwhile, as early as January 26, a 54-year-old PLA General, Chen Wei, headed to Wuhan “to fight the epidemic” and take over the civilian Wuhan Institute of Virology (partially funded by France).
Further on March 16, China announced that the lady General had developed a vaccine for the Coronavirus and it had entered the first stage for clinical trials. According to Chinascope, a Chinese website based in the US, it is the first recombinant Coronavirus vaccine (adenovirus vector) approved for clinical trial. Volunteers, organised in three groups with 36 people in each, were given injections; Gen Chen was the first to be injected. The Global Times called Chen “a real pathfinder.” Before taking charge of the Wuhan lab, Chen was associated with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS).
It was, however, pointed out that it would have taken at least five months to develop the recombinant vaccine approved today by Beijing. Chinascope explained, “The US has also developed a vaccine in a short period but it was based on a different technology (mRNA technology), which could take about 40 days to do. The traditional recombinant vaccine could provide a permanent cure but the mRNA vaccine is like a flu shot that needs to be done every year.” The question, therefore, is, when did the PLA start developing the vaccine to be able to complete the research in five months? Did China know about the “Small Thing” earlier than announced (end of December)? It’s difficult to answer this question but China will probably win the first war.
The second war triggered by the “Small Thing” is to do with information warfare, though this isn’t new. The US website, War on the Rocks, explained, “Several countries are employing disinformation and messaging campaigns around COVID-19 in a branding effort to ensure they are not blamed for the pandemic in the history books.”
For the Communist Party of China (CPC), it is a question of life and death. War of the Rocks asserted: “As the number of COVID-19 cases in China has reportedly declined, Chinese State-run media and diplomats have waged a disinformation campaign against the US in an attempt to distract from Beijing’s mismanagement of the crisis.”
It cites historical examples from the Soviet era, when the same tactics were used, attempting to bring a new narrative: “The origin of the virus is unknown. It could have come from anywhere in the world. China has been a model in handling the sensitive issue. Beijing can now advise the world how to go about it.”
Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, started to use vitriolic Twitter attacks against critics of his country. He alleged that the American military was at the origin of the virus. The argument went so far that China’s Ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, had to contradict his spokesperson. Cui said that it was “crazy” to spread rumors about the Coronavirus originating from a military laboratory in the US.
China may lose the second war. In a few months or years, the “Small Thing” will have eventually dissolved or disappeared (it has already to a great extent in China if one is to believe the Chinese propaganda) but some scars may remain for decades, bringing the most drastic changes to China’s image in the world.
Take Italy, they trusted Chinese President Xi Jinping and agreed to participate in his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As a the result, more than three lakh Chinese came to work in Northern Italy, where the tragedy started. Then the case of Holland; the Dutch Health Ministry announced it had recalled 600,000 face masks from China. Ditto was the case for Spain. Its Government encountered similar problems with testing kits ordered from a Chinese company and withdrew a batch of rapid test kits manufactured by China. Turkey and the Czech Republic also announced that they had found some testing kits, ordered from Chinese companies, were not sufficiently accurate.
Examples could be multiplied. China imported about 2.5 billion healthcare items, including visors, masks, gloves and ventilators from Australia between January 24 and February 29, leaving Australian frontline medical staff without protective equipment when the virus struck that country. Masks and other items have to be bought back at often highly inflated prices.
Critics have also accused Beijing of trying to split the European Union (EU) by shipping equipment to certain nations on more favourable terms than others, while leaving the US, the present epicenter of the pandemic, in the lurch. This scar will remain for a long time despite Beijing’s all-out propaganda. Eventually, Xi will have to answer some hard questions from those in Beijing, who were or are in favour of a softer and more human approach to other nations in difficulty.
But the most valuable lesson of the “Small Thing’s” strike is well described by Moustapha Dahleb: “Suddenly the pollution has dropped, people have started having time, so much time that they don’t even know what to do with it. Parents get to know their children, kids learn to stay with their families, work is no longer a priority, travel and leisure are no longer the norm for a successful life. Suddenly, in silence, we turn around in ourselves and understand the value of the words solidarity and vulnerability. Suddenly we realise that we are all on the same boat, rich and poor.”
Let us hope that the “Small Thing” can bring more humanity to this planet despite the high price paid by all nations.

China and the Corona Virus

I am posting the links of my recent articles on the Coronavirus and China.

How killer Coronavirus has dented President Xi's mandate
Article in Mail Today/DailyO
February 12, 2020
There is no end in sight to the dreaded epidemic which continues to spread

Turbulent times for Beijing
Article in the Edit Page of The Pioneer
February 14, 2020 
Only history can reveal the source of coronavirus. But the crucial issue facing China today is how the people perceive the communist regime’s response to the disaster 

Whistleblower spurs China push for change
Article in The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle
February 26, 2020
The announcement of the surge in new cases happened as the Hubei provincial and Wuhan municipal party secretaries were shown the door. 

The art of healing
Article in the Edit Page of The Pioneer 
February 27, 2020 
In times when the Government is talking about oppressed minorities in neighbouring nations, should we be harassing Tibetans who have sided with India even in difficult times? 

China’s Tainted Corona 
Article in the Edit Page of The Pioneer 
March 12 , 2020 
While the contagious phase of COVID-19 may ebb and the communist regime may deny the PLA’s role in the battle, the world may not see it in the same light as before 

China begins Information Warfare
Article in The Asian Age
March 23, 2020 
What China does not seem to understand is that even if she wins a few IW battles, this will not help her to become a respected state 

Tibet gets back to work
Article in the Edit Page of The Pioneer 
March 26, 2020
It’s perplexing that when China is still in lockdown, work has resumed on infrastructure projects in Tibet. India must watch these developments carefully and take necessary measures 

The dawn of information warfare
Article in Mail Today/DailyO
March 30, 2020
For 70 years, Chinese propaganda has been mastering the Art of Disinformation. Beijing’s rewriting history of the 1959 Tibetan Uprising is a classic example.

Can China's Communist Party Survive The Chinese Virus Fallout?
Article in StratNews Global 

March 31, 2020 

Tibet-China watcher Claude Arpi raises the relevant question 

Just a ‘small thing’

Article in the Edit Page of The Pioneer 

April 9, 2020 

Despite all the propaganda trotted out by Beijing, some scars may remain for decades, bringing the most drastic changes to China’s image in the world

Why China's figures can't be trusted
Article in Mail Today/DailyO
April 19, 2020
China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases 'by a factor of 15 to 40 times'

Tibet gets back to work

My article Tibet gets back to work appeared in The Edit Page of The Pioneer


Here is the link...

It’s perplexing that when China is still in lockdown, work has resumed on infrastructure projects in Tibet. India must watch these developments carefully and take necessary measures

A Tibetan man became the first victim of Coronavirus but not in Tibet but in Dharamsala, Himachal Pradesh. According to The Tibet Sun, Tenzin Choephel, a 69-year-old man from McLeod Ganj (where the Dalai Lama lives), died of Coronavirus after returning from a trip to the US on March 15. It said, “After staying in Delhi for a few days, Choephel returned to McLeod Ganj by a taxi on March 21. On the morning of March 23, he complained of respiratory problems. He was then taken to the Tanda Government hospital where he died.” Meanwhile, in Tibet, the situation is surprisingly “normal.”
Contrary to other provinces in China,  the mountainous region had only one infected patient of the Novel Coronavirus. The patient was a 34-year-old man, who came from the city of Suizhou, the hardest-hit province amid the ongoing outbreak. He was discharged from hospital on February 12. Xinhua reported, “He travelled from the city of Wuhan to Lhasa by train from January 22 to 24. On the evening of January 25, he developed symptoms of cough and fever and was hospitalised.” He was confirmed to be positive on January 29 and after an 18-day treatment he was let out.
It’s difficult to say if this is propaganda or truth. Nevertheless, the high plateau appears to have been less affected than the rest of the Middle Kingdom. If facts are correct, scientists will have to undertake a detailed study of the Tibetan case when the outbreak of the virus recedes.
One reason why Tibet managed to keep cases low is because the authorities over there used Tibetan medicine extensively to fight the disease. For example, when the Tibetan-inhabited area in north-west China’s Qinghai province reported 18 confirmed cases of the infection last month, 17 of them received a treatment involving Tibetan medicine (TM) and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), the two independent traditional medical systems.
 Huang Licheng, an official with the provincial Health Commission, was quoted by Xinhua as saying, “The Tibetan medicine played an active role in the treatment.” He further said, “The provincial hospital of Tibetan medicine produced a batch of anti-virus medications featuring Tibetan medicine; 1,000 of them have already been sent to the front lines in Hubei Province, the centre of the virus outbreak.”
This aspect, too, needs to be analysed. At the same time, these harrowing times have shown Beijing’s priorities in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), the first region in China to restart normal activities and that, too, on a war-footing. Guess what started first? Infrastructure projects close to the border with India.
On February 20, China Tibet Online asserted: “Work continues on infrastructure projects in Tibet.” It gave the example of the 11.5-km long Mainling tunnel on the Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway. It is located just north of Arunachal Pradesh: “It (Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway) currently has the most complicated geological conditions and is the most difficult project in China’s construction of a railway on the plateau,” noted the website.
The Mainling tunnel is scheduled to be completed by the end of March: “In order to ensure constructing process, currently, the construction workers are digging the last 60m of the tunnel. About 1,881 workers in Tibet are doing their best to construct the Lhasa-Nyingchi railway. With a designed speed of 160 km/h, it will be the first electrified railway in Tibet.”
But why so much hurry at a time when the rest of China is still under clampdown? Beijing has already invested $3.9 billion in this project and the railway line will be operational by next year. “Workers have completed 44 tunnels out of 47 and 119 bridges out of 120 along the route.”
Yet another development that should worry India is the Dagu Hydropower Station (HPS) project on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in Assam). Located in Sangri County in Lhoka, the Dagu HPS has a capacity of 660 MW. Two billion dollars have already been invested: “It is a major project supported by the Central Government for Tibet’s economic and social development.” The dam is one of the three cascade dams under construction not far from the Indian border.
It is said that even during the Spring Festival, more than 300 workers remained on duty near the site. Later, they were said to “have successfully returned to construction. The construction site in the valley is busy; a large hydropower station is beginning to take shape.”
Another project is in Sakya county, near Shigatse, the second largest town in Tibet. A mega water project restarted around February 20, a few days before Losar, the sacred Tibetan New Year. “With the biggest investment ever in Tibet’s water project history, the project will help with irrigation, supply water, generate power and prevent flooding,” explained a Chinese website. It further said, “Tibet has arranged 179 projects for this year…Work has resumed on some of these projects.”
On March 3, charter flights were being arranged to bring workers back from the Mainland to Tibet “to resume the construction of major projects in the region.” Tibet Online, another official website of China, mentioned that on that day, TV6031 flight operated by Tibet Airlines landed at the airport of Nyingchi City. It said, “The 105 power workers onboard, from Zhejiang Province, will be assigned to the power grid projects in the region’s most impoverished areas.” Other such charter flights landed in Lhasa, Shigatse and Chamdo.
Quoting a Tibetan power company, China Tibet News said on February 29 that more than 2,800 workers had resumed the construction of 338 projects, accounting for 75 per cent of the total. It included the Ngari Power Grid Interconnection Project, not far from the Uttarakhand and Ladakh border.
The resumption of construction projects at a time when the rest of China was under lockdown is perplexing. Why this frenzy? It’s difficult to answer. A few weeks ago, an intrusion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was reported in Naku-la, south of the watershed in northern Sikkim, an area supposed to be a “settled” undisputed area.  This was not a good sign.
With the “victory” of Wuhan, triumphantly announced by the Chinese propaganda, the PLA, which played a decisive role, is bound to come out reinforced from the crisis. Can Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is in an extremely weak position today both internally and externally (despite the disinformation war going on a full swing), keep his control over the PLA in the months to come?
Only time will tell. But the speed at which it has resumed the construction of infrastructure projects in Tibet is certainly ominous. A Chinese website published a photo feature. Its caption read: “Multiple rocket launch systems attached to an artillery brigade under the PLA Xizang Military Command fire anti-aircraft rockets simultaneously during a live-fire operation at the elevation of 4,500 metres in Southwest China’s Xizang Autonomous Region on March 11, 2020.”
China will argue that it is only a routine exercise but India needs to watch carefully and take necessary measures to be ready for a new outbreak à la Doklam.

Coronavirus: The Chinese Information Warfare

A Turning Point: Xi's visit to Wuhan

As China seems to recover from the dreaded Covid19, Beijing has started a new battle, an Information Warfare (IW) against the way the world perceives the Middle Kingdom today.
It is true that since the outbreak of the virus at the end of December (the virus had probably been around since several weeks already, but the authoritarian regime in Beijing preferred to hide the truth from its own people and the world), the Communist regime discovered that it had not many friends on the planet. Even Vladimir Putin was targeted when Beijing asked the Russian authorities not to discriminate against Chinese citizens; reports had appeared of police raids in Moscow against people from China evading quarantine measures.
Soon China decided to counterattack. Zhao Lijian, one of China’s sharp shooters was called upon to serve as spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Zhao, who served earlier as deputy chief of mission in Pakistan, is known for his vitriolic twitter attacks against China’s critics.
Referring to a statement of the director of the US Centres for Disease Control (CDC), Zhao Lijian’s latest tweet alleged that the Americans are at the origin of the virus: “CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owes us an explanation!”
But the artillery fire does not come from a single sniper, a full-fledged IW has begun from around the time that President Xi Jinping, accompanied by Wang Huning, the propaganda boss in the Politburo’s Standing Committee; Ding Xuexiang, director of the Party’s General Office and General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, visited Wuhan.
One of the first shots came from the Chinese Embassy in Australia who emailed local journalists, accusing them of “politicizing the coronavirus” by saying it originated in China “without any supporting facts.”
Financial Review journalist Michael Smith received an email from the Chinese embassy in Canberra, complaining that he had called the Covid-19, ‘China virus’. Smith asserted that Beijing “has pivoted its propaganda narrative, now insinuating that the virus originated in other countries.”
The symptoms of the Chinese aggressiveness was already seen on February 18 when Hou Yanqi the Chinese ambassador to Nepal issued a statement criticizing an article published in the Nepali press: “The Kathmandu Post published an article which, with a picture of malicious intention, deliberately smeared the efforts of the Chinese government and people fighting against the new coronavirus pneumonia and even viciously attacked the political system of China.”
The lady ambassador went a step further; she accused by name the chief editor of The Kathmandu Post, Anup Kaphle of being biased: “[he] has always been biased on China-related issues. …[he is] becoming a parrot of some anti-China forces.”
As a result, a group of 17 Nepali editors affiliated with various media houses in Kathmandu issued a statement criticizing the embassy for threatening Kaphle: “We would also like to remind the embassy that it breached diplomatic decorum in doing so.”
Hou’s attack on the press was part of a well-orchestrated campaign against any foreign media refusing to follow Beijing’s line.
The Communist mouthpiece The Global Time was not left behind. An Op-Ed stated: “Amid the raging coronavirus epidemic, some Western countries have shown their true colors.” The writer elaborated: “Some Western media outlets have blamed China for the virus' going global and made a big deal out of China's ‘delays’ during the outbreak's initial stage. Now that the novel coronavirus crisis continues to unfold across the world, it's obvious to see which country's handling has been more efficient and effective.”
The media blitzkrieg brings a new narrative, “the origin is the virus is unknown, it could have come from anywhere in the world; China has been a model in handling the sensitive issue; Beijing can now advise the world how to go about it.”
The strategy’s objective is to force the world to forget how and where the virus started or to find out if the first case originated in a Chinese Lab or elsewhere.
Axios, the analysis website commented: “Beijing's coronavirus propaganda blitz goes global,” before elaborating: “As China begins to get its coronavirus outbreak under control, authorities are going on the offensive to rewrite the narrative that the global epidemic is Beijing's fault.”
Axios spoke of China's formidable propaganda apparatus which can obscure the truth and change narratives abroad, just as it can at home.
Bill Bishop, author of the Sinocism newsletter added: “The CCP is masterful at rewriting history, and we’re watching them do it in real time.”
The Editor of Bitter Winter, an Italian website studying China’s Human Rights recounted: “Some days ago, I opened my email and found a message from a Chinese colleague asking whether I was safe from the ‘Italian virus’. I had never heard the expression ‘Italian virus’ with respect to COVID-19, but then learned that others had received similar messages, and that Japanese were being asked by Chinese friends whether they had been affected by the ‘Japanese virus’.
He quoted from a report in La Croix International citing confidential instructions sent by Beijing to Chinese embassies: “while the virus severely hit Wuhan, where it really originally came from is unknown. We are conducting new studies to locate the virus’ true origin.”
Embassies were asked to ‘raise doubts’ in the public opinion, suggesting that perhaps the virus originally came to China from abroad.
On February 26, Xinhua announced the release of a book, which detailed President Xi Jinping’s “outstanding leadership as a great power leader” defeated the virus. The publication proved to the world the “significant advantages of the Chinese system of leadership and socialism with Chinese characteristics,” and show how “the centralized and unified leadership of the CCP Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core won the Great war against the virus.” It was later withdrawn as the victory had been announced too early.
After reading La Croix International’s report, London-based sinologist Steve Tsang stated: “the CCP always had a monopoly on truth and history in China, and now tries to deny that it originally hid the truth on the virus. CCP officers claim they are right even when it is obvious they are wrong.”
Another Op-Ed in The Global Times argued that all this was a symptom of West’s ideological crisis: “The Western media's ignorance and bias of China's system have never appeared more obvious. For decades, the Western media have been trying to persuade their readers that Chinese people have no freedom or democracy, simply because China doesn't adopt the Western-style electoral system,” while Beijing is pursuing a more substantial and efficient set of freedom “designed to meet the needs of the people who most desire long-term peace, stability and development.”
That would be fine, but why such aggressiveness and often blatant distortion of the facts.
What China does not seem to understand is that even if she wins a few IW battles, this will not help her to become a respected State .

China’s tainted corona

My article China’s tainted corona appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer



Here is the link...

While the contagious phase of COVID-19 may ebb and the communist regime may deny the PLA’s role in the battle, the world may not see it in the same light as before

The sudden apparition of Coronavirus on the world stage was unexpected for Chinese watchers. However, it is bound to have deeper implications than the Tiananmen massacre for the future of the Middle Kingdom. Even if the situation stabilises in the next few months, or by the end of the year, the community of nations may not see it in the same light. Undoubtedly, the role of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to be discussed for long after the contagious phase of COVID-19 is behind us. From day one, a PLA unit, the Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF), has been at the centrestage of what the communist party of China called the “people’s war” against the “demon” virus.
When I say day one, it means nearly two months after the deadly virus surfaced in Wuhan. The communist authorities were lax between December 1, 2019, when The Lancet’s epidemiological retrospective investigation showed the first confirmed case with symptoms of the novel Coronavirus pneumonia, and January 23, 2020, when the JLSF troops first arrived on the scene.
But what is JLSF? The body was created on January 11, 2016, as part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s in-depth military reform measure. According to Xinhua, the JLSF “comprises the support forces for inventory and warehousing, medical services, transport, force projection, oil pipelines, engineering and construction management, reserve assets management and procurement.” Coincidentally, it is based in Wuhan. The first task given to the JLSF of the Central Military Commission (CMC) was to build the Huoshenshan Hospital, an emergency speciality field facility that accommodates 1,000 beds. Believe it or not, it was constructed in just eight days.
At first, 450 Army personnel were flown in to Wuhan. They were joined in by 1,400 military medical staff on February 3 and 2,600 additional medical personnel from the armed forces on February 13. Today more than 10,000 troops (including the militia also serving under the CMC) have been deployed.
Though the Generals were probably reluctant in the beginning, it became clearer to the Communist leadership in Beijing that only the PLA could save China. On January 29, Xi, who is also the CMC Chairman, had to personally intervene to exhort the military to save the nation. And the party. He ordered the military to win the battle, emphasising the importance of “keeping in mind the purpose and carrying the burdens.” He exhorted the troops “to keep the original spirit,” adding, “Our Army is a child soldier of the people, breathing with the people, sharing the same fate and connecting hearts.”
The PLA had to face its own problems.  The crew of the Type 054A multi-role frigate, Changzho, carrying anti-submarine missiles had to be quarantined. The Navy admitted the fear of an outbreak and the captain of the frigate, Yu Song Qiu, and a number of sailors were placed on lockdown. Shore leave rules for crew members aboard the Shandong were tightened to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on China’s second aircraft carrier. By the end of January, there were 54 declared cases of virus in Sanya in Hainan Island where the Shandong is based.
At the same time, the CMC started regulating the relations between the PLA and the civilians: Thirteen forms of activities were banned, including receiving money/securities and asking non-military organisations/individuals to provide money or commodities. Corrupt officers were warned: No illicit enrichment would be permitted.
Probably sensing the lack of enthusiasm on the part of the PLA to participate in the risky operations, the CMC opened a life insurance scheme for those personnel going to the “frontline.” It further declared that those, who would die combating the virus, would be named “martyr” by the Chinese State.
But the real challenge for the JLSF was to control the spread of the virus in Wuhan, which is the strategic hub for the defence industry — it has more than 350 research centres and industrial institutes as well as 1,700 hi-tech enterprises covering aerospace, satellites, rocketry and biotechnology. The future of all these institutions remained undecided.
According to Xinhua, China had to postpone its military recruitment drive, scheduled for the first half of this year to support the country’s epidemic prevention and control work. Wu Qian, the spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defence, asserted: “Approved by the State Council and the CMC, the postponed conscription will be combined with that of the second half, which will run from August 1 to September 30.” Though Wu said that the overall annual recruitment targets would remain unchanged, experts believe that the PLA could be badly affected.
This was also the time when an enigmatic personage appeared on the scene. Chen Wei, a 53-year-old leading Chinese epidemiologist and a Major-General in PLA, is known for developing the world’s first gene-based vaccine on Ebola in 2014. She was also apparently involved in combating the SARS outbreak.
According to the International Business Times, the controversial Major-General injected herself and her six-member team with an untested Coronavirus vaccine. She has created quite a stir on Weibo by her radical approach, especially after she was posted in the Wuhan lab from where the COVID-19 strain could have escaped (the Chinese authorities denied this).
Was this just a gesture to prove her loyalty to Chairman Xi? Just a month ago, Chen had taken over the controversial Wuhan lab, originally a civilian research lab, partly funded by the French Government. When he visited the research facilities in February 2017, Bernard Cazeneuve, the then French Prime Minister, declared: “France is proud and happy to have contributed to the construction of the first P4 high bio-safety laboratory in China. …This cutting-edge tool constitutes a central element in the achievement of the 2004 inter-governmental agreement on Franco-Chinese cooperation in the prevention and fight against emerging infectious diseases.” Something obviously went wrong.
For India, it is important to analyse the implications of the PLA’s involvement in the battle against the virus. Will the JLSF emerge stronger? Can the PLA become a threat to the party, just in case the “people’s war” against the “virus” is won by the Army? Will it re-emerge stronger despite Xi’s efforts to restrict the Army’s influence? What will be the implications for the PLA’s preparedness on the borders with India? It may be too early to answer these questions but even though PLA activities on the Tibetan plateau have reduced due to the outbreak, intrusions were reported recently from Naku-la, south of the watershed in Northern Sikkim, a border said to be “settled” by China. It is quite ominous.

Playing the Gyaltsen Norbu 'Card'

Something rather unusual happened on the occasion of the Tibetan Losar (New Iron-Mouse Year).
Gyaltsen Norbu, the Chinese-selected Panchen Lama addressed his countrymen …in English: “I would like to extend to all my fellow Tibetans at home and abroad my best greetings for the new Tibetan year of the Iron Rat,” he said.
Incidentally, for the Tibetans, it is the Year of the Mouse, not the Rat Year as in China, but why to speak in English.
With a relatively good accent and subtitles (and obviously a prompter), Gyaltsen Norbu said: “In 2019, we stayed apace with the great times. Every family made progress and reaped benefits. Each and every person gained new understandings and personal growth. At present, people of all ethnic groups across China are fighting against the novel coronavirus outbreak. I firmly believe under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, with the whole society united in taking action and working together to help each other, we will definitely achieve the ultimate victory.”
Though he mentioned the Communist Party, he did not say a word about the 'People’s Leader', Xi Jinping.
After speaking of the fight against the Coronavirus, his conclusions were: “I wish and pray for world peace and social harmony. I wish and pray for the prosperity of our country. I wish and pray for the health and well-being for our people. And I wish and pray for all living beings to achieve happiness by staying away from all sufferings.”
A few days earlier, The People’s Daily announced that the Chinese Panchen Lama had donated medical supplies worth 1 million yuan (about $1,43,000) through the Tibet Development Fund: “to help fight the novel coronavirus in southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region [TAR].”
The Lama is obviously well-off.
Xinhua reported that the medical supplies, including medical gloves, isolation gowns, masks and thermometers, have been dispatched to the 'frontline' of epidemic control in the region.
Where is the ‘frontline’ when the TAR is said to be the only region in China without declared case?
More importantly, the fact that Gyatsen Norbu addressed the Tibetans in English shows that Beijing is planning a much larger role for him in the future.
It could even dispense China to ‘find’ a 15th Dalai Lama, a move which would be controversial to say the least; Beijing could play the ‘Gyaltsen Norbu’ card on a much larger scale and probably on a restricted international level.
Beijing is aware that after the Dalai Lama’s passing away, it will take a few years for his reincarnation to return and during the next two decades, he will not be able to play a political role due to young age, therefore it would be safe for Beijing to use Gyaltsen Norbu for a few decades.
But it is if…
The fate of a nation (or an individual) is never a straight line.
In 1931, two years before passing in the Heavenly Fields, the 13th Dalai Lama had written: “While I was returning to Tibet, [in 1910] the Ambans [the Chinese Resident] in Tibet sent false reports to the Chinese Emperor and as a result commander Lui Chan and his soldiers were ordered to march into Tibet. They started interfering and even managed to take considerable political power into their hands. Consequently, I, my ministers and important officials of the State, inspite of the difficult journey, had to leave Tibet and go to the noble land of India [The Dalai Lama stayed in Kalimpong]. There, I appealed to the then English Government of India who brought the matter to the notice of the Chinese king. However, the Chinese king refused to reply and nothing came out of it. [But in 1912] as a result of our past meritorious karma and the numerous prayers and services that were conducted in Tibet, internal strife took place in China. It was no problem, therefore, to completely drive out the Chinese force from Tibet.”
A few months later, the Dalai Lama declared Tibet’s Independence.
History does not often repeat, however many unpredictable events can happen… It would not be wise for Beijing to bet too much on Gyaltsen Norbu.