Will 2021 be China’s & Xi’s annus horribilis?

My article Will 2021 be China’s & Xi’s annus horribilis? appeared in The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle

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Has Beijing succeeded in intimidating India with its brazen info warfare?

As the end of the year approaches, it is customary to look at the past twelve months and try to draw conclusions about the closing year’s happenings.
2020 will undoubtedly remain as an awful year, not only for India, but also for humanity and one country (or more correctly one regime) is behind this planetary misery: China and its Communist Party.
As a World Health Organization (WHO) team prepares to travel to Wuhan in January 2021 to investigate the origins of Covid-19, you can be sure that the WHO will not find any clues. In an interview with the BBC, Prof Shi Zhengli (the ‘bat woman’) who has been associated with the P4 ‘French’ lab in Wuhan, recently denounced “unsubstantiated claims that the coronavirus leaked from her laboratory.”
But even without speaking of Wuhan, when the BBC team tried to visit the remote district of Tongguan, in Yunnan, to enquire about Prof Shi’s field work, they could not reach the place: “Plain-clothes police officers and other officials in unmarked cars followed us for miles along the narrow, bumpy roads, stopping when we did, backtracking with us when we were forced to turn around. We found obstacles in our way, including a ‘broken-down’ lorry, which locals confirmed had been placed across the road a few minutes before we arrived.”
The fact remains that many whistleblowers have now disappeared and it will be difficult to prove anything as the lab has been cleaned of all traces of mishaps.
Even the conservative National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) of France admitted that “The origin of SARS-CoV-2 is being seriously questioned”.
In an interview, eminent CNRS virologist Étienne Decroly discussed the various hypotheses, including that of an accidental leak from a laboratory.
When asked if the virus could have escaped from a laboratory, the professor said: “The hypothesis cannot be ruled out, given that SARS-CoV, which emerged in 2003, has escaped from laboratory experiments at least four times.”
One factor which has been ignored (or conveniently forgotten): the Chinese authorities gave the control of the ‘Top-Secret’ lab in Wuhan to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) when the world was still unaware of the coming pandemic. The high technology transferred to China was done under the garb of Indo-French advanced scientific collaboration; the ‘Top Secret’ label ensures that nobody is allowed to seriously inquire why France left the project after 2017.
However, we know that at the end of January 2020, a Chinese PLA general took over the civilian Institute in Wuhan; Maj Gen Chen Wei, a researcher at the Military Medical Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences, became the laboratory ‘in charge’; by March 2020, the lady general claimed to have found the first vaccine against the virus. All this raises many serious questions which very few are ready to discuss openly.
In February already, a group of Chinese scholars led by Botao Xiao of the South China University of Technology wrote a paper for the Natural Science Foundation of China; it dealt with “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
After searching around the Seafood market in Wuhan, said to be the epicenter of the outbreak, they identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus. The first one, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention is located 280 meters from the market where the virus is supposed to have emerged. The scientists found that “surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were a source of pathogens.” It was not a proof, but a strong lead.
The second laboratory, the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is located 15 kilometers from the seafood market; this is the ‘French’ lab taken over by Gen Chen Wei.
Xiao and his colleagues concluded: “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk bio-hazardous laboratories.” The study quickly disappeared from the Net.
It is in these circumstances that China decided to ‘teach’ India a lesson.
From all available information today, Gen Zhao Zongqi, the Commander of the Western Theater Command (WTC) facing India, managed to convince Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission that China could advance in a few areas in Ladakh at little cost for Beijing.
Zhao had already masterminded the Doklam incident in 2017. In May, the PLA began to move in Ladakh, but it soon turned to be a ‘misadventure’ for Beijing; the Chinese generals had not planned for Delhi’s strong reaction.
The good news is that on December 18, Zhao has been replaced by a rather unknown officer who has never set foot in the WTC; he has no experience of the Indian border. It is too early to say what it means for the future negotiations in Ladakh, but it probably indicates that Beijing will be more ‘flexible’. If confirmed, this is certainly a good thing for India as Zhao has been the main hardliner.
Retrospectively, what Xi has achieved in 2020?
The virus has made the world acutely aware of the dark sides of China; the image of the totalitarian Party will not improve in 2021.
Today Xi finds himself in lose-lose situation, as he has realized that he can’t bully India in Ladakh. Will the Darbuk–Shyok–Daulat Beg Oldi Road that Gen Zhao tried to stop, be shelved by India, the answer is ‘No’. Will India drop its suzerainty claims over Gilgit Baltistan? No.
Gen Zhao Zongqi will certainly not get a seat in the Central Military Commission as he expected to. Has China gained some strategic advantages in Ladakh? Hardly. And in August, the ridges, South Pangong tso on the Kailash range, were lost to the PLA.
Has Beijing succeeded in intimidating India with its brazen Information Warfare? Absolutely not. Has Xi’s prestige been enhanced after the Ladakh episode? Certainly not; on the contrary it showed the PLA’s limitation faced with a determined adversary. Economically too, Beijing has lost a lot, especially with Indian banning number of Chinese Apps and the decision to not award big contracts to China.
One could add many issues to the list.
All this makes me think that 2021 will an Annus Horribilis for China and its news Great Helmsman. It would only be justice …in the meantime, can the WHO go to the bottom of the origin of the virus? Probably not.

Xi and the Poor Art of War

Every expert worth his name in a TV studio or on the innumerable webinars will explain to you about the Art of War, an ancient Chinese military treatise written by Sun Tzu, a Chinese general and military strategist in the 5th century BC. The treatise teaches you all aspects of warfare and particularly how to win a War without fighting it.
Mao Zedong himself is said to have drawn his inspiration from the treatise.
Today, it looks as if President Xi Jinping has not read the book properly.
It is not that the new Great Helmsman has not received a military training. From 1979 to 1982, Xi served as secretary for his father's second-in-command, General Geng Biao, then secretary general of the Central Military Commission (CMC); however, the present CMC Chairman should have learned better how to deal with his ‘enemies’.
When one looks at the last few months of Xi’s leadership, one can seriously doubt that his tactics will lead China to victories ‘without fighting’ and this, for the simple reason that he taken too many enemies in one go.
His predecessor Deng Xiaoping thought the best way for China to rise was: “Hide your strength, bide your time, never take the lead;” but Xi decided to pick quarrels with most nations on the planet at the same time (of course with the exception of the all-weather friend Pakistan, and Nepal who is presently under the charm of a beautiful lady-ambassador).
This was not mentioned in the Art of War.
Whether it is the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, Vietnam, Philippines, European Union, etc, the list is long. This is without counting Hong Kong, Taiwan, or the ‘autonomous regions’ of Tibet and Xinjiang.
Since early May, India has been added; Xi has decided to fight a war in the High Himalaya. And what is the purpose of this new belligerence?
Only a couple of ‘fingers’ or a few hundred meters in the most inhospitable terrain? And is it really smart to start this at the time of the pandemic? Did Sun Tzu ever teach this? Not to my knowledge.
What will Xi win? It appears a lose-lose venture for him.
Realizing this, Xi’s clever Special Representative (SR), Wang Yi, also Minister of Foreign Affairs had a long talk on the phone with Ajit Doval, his Indian counterpart and National Security Advisor.
A communiqué of the Ministry of External Affairs stated: “The two Special Representatives had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on the recent developments in the Western Sector of the India-China border areas.”
The two SRs agreed that maintenance of peace and tranquillity in the border areas was essential and “[the] two sides should not allow differences to become disputes.” But it is Xi who created the differences.
The SRs spoke of the necessity to ensure “at the earliest complete disengagement of the troops along the LAC and de-escalation from India-China border areas.”
As usual, the Chinese statement was different from the one issued in Delhi; it should allow Beijing to play with words in the future.
Ambitious generals in Chengdu’s Western Theater Commands sold the idea to Xi to teach a lesson to the Indians and to place the PLA troops on the LAC in far better position to destroy, if necessary, the new infrastructure built by India in East Ladakh; Gen Zhao Zongqi thought that it would be easy if he took the Indians by surprise.
Unfortunately, the 14 Corps based in Leh reacted faster than expected by Gen Zhao and thereafter nothing went according to plan, particularly on June 15 (on Emperor Xi’s birth anniversary) when between 45 and 60 Chinese soldiers lost their lives in a deadly clash with Indian troops in the Galwan Valley. Of course, the totalitarian Middle Kingdom is equipped to hide the truth from their masses, while repeating that only India lost many of its jawans.
But for how long can the Chinese State keep this secret in an era when social media pervades all aspects of life?
Presently, Beijing is still controlling the information.
On July 6, on a TV program, two panelists Ruan Zongze, deputy head of China Institute of International Studies and Su Xiaohui, Special Correspondent of CNTV, discussed the recently-held third round of military talks in Chushul.
The panelists argued that Chinas’ sovereignty of Galwan valley is a fact and the Indian troops illegally crossed into the Chinese territory and violated the international laws.
The ‘experts’ further argued that the Galwan valley was earlier not disputed till India illegally moved into the area; the Chinese viewers were told blatant lies that India had built a helipad, temporary bridges, erected tents and piled up stone structures on the site.
Three years after the Doklam standoff, the Indian troops crossed again the line and started provocation against China, said the speakers, adding that China and India are important neighbours and maintaining peace at the border is in the interest of both the sides. They further complained that on July 3, Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly visited the Sino-Indian border and mentioned the dispute with its neighbor (China). His visit was of no use, they concluded; it was an isolated act of provocation by India: India urgently purchased military equipments, held military drill with Japan and India banned 59 Chinese apps.
How long can the Chinese government bluff its own public and change into black what is clearly white?
The point remains that the top-most Chinese leadership knows that Xi Jinping has taken a too-big bite and that he does have the capacity to digest it.
That was not a smart move, would have thought Sun Tzu; in the meantime the present leadership has started questioning the People’s Leader, especially at a time when the pandemic is not yet over.
The ‘disengagement’ may give some breathing space to Xi and help him to temporarily save face; all the more reason for India to keep awake and not be fooled by the Chinese propaganda.
One should not forget that at the end of the month or early next month, the yearly secret CCP’s conclave will be held in the seaside resort of Beidaihe; it will provide a space to the party elders to review Xi's leadership.
This year, the agenda will be tough for Xi; on the top of the usual issues, he will have to answer about the catastrophic economic situation …and an unnecessary war with India, for three fingers more.