China’s plans for ‘Asia’

The Himalayan forgotten?

My article China’s plans for ‘Asia’ appeared in The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle

Here is the link...

China has decided to pump $24.8 billion into laying new highways in Xinjiang region to improve connectivity with Pakistan.

In the recent weeks, one question has often been raised by Indian think tanks: should India participate in the new trade routes initiated by China?
Before answering, let us look at some facts. On January 17, something quite exciting happened: a freight train arrived at Barking, a suburban town east of London. The British media titled that it signalled a “new chapter in the history of the centuries-old trading route”.
After travelling for 16 days, the East Wind train became the first direct freight train linking China and the UK. With 34 wagons, the train was carrying 68 containers loaded with household goods such as clothes, socks, suitcases, purses and wallets worth  £4 million.
This is not exciting in itself, but more remarkable, it had travelled 7,456 miles, the longest train journey in the world, said the British media.
Nobody dared to question the viability of such a project, probably because it was part of the dream of President Xi Jinping; he has envisioned a mega “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) project to connect Asia (read China) with Europe and Africa via the ancient trading centres of Central Asia and Eastern Europe, a modern Silk Road.
Although only indirectly part of the OBOR, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has created a lot of thrill too, but mainly with India’s western neighbour.
In April 2015, when Mr Xi arrived in Islamabad, he brought with him a munificent gift for Pakistan: An eye-popping $46 billion worth of planned energy and infrastructure investment to boost Pakistan’s flagging economy. This included 10,400 megawatts to Pakistan’s national grid through coal, nuclear and renewable energy projects. It sounded like a Chinese dream for the Pakistani leaders who marvelled at Beijing’s kindness. They may soon discover that Chinese generosity will first and foremost benefit Beijing, but it is another story!
However, as the project crosses Indian territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir it is unacceptable for India, which has presently no say in the Chinese “initiative”, even though New Delhi has been invited to a conference on the subject in May in Beijing. The question remains: in these circumstances should India “participate” in the Chinese schemes?
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Mr Xi at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China, in September 2016, he  raised the topics of terrorism originating from Pakistan as well as the CPEC project. He emphasised that New Delhi and Beijing must be sensitive to each other’s “strategic concerns”.
But there is another aspect to the grandiose Chinese schemes; one has the tendency to forget that for centuries, India had traditional trade routes with Tibet, as well as Xinjiang and Central Asia.
China is not ready today to implement what it is preaching; it pleads for globalisation, it wants to reopen ancient routes, but the traditional ones between India and Tibet or Xinjiang remain closed. And China is adamant about it.
After Tibet was invaded by China in October 1950, the Himalayan passes fell progressively in disuse. An effort was made in 1954 to regulate the flow of people and goods through the “agreement on Trade and Intercourse between the Tibet region of China and India”, known as the Panchsheel Agreement, however China was not ready to implement it and the spirit of the accord eventually lapsed in 1962; the Five Principles had, in fact, the reverse effect; the trade stopped over the Himalaya.
The 1954 agreement stated: “Traders of both countries known to be customarily and specifically engaged in trade between Tibet region of China and India may continue to trade.”
Although a number of trade marts were named, as China increased its physical grip on the plateau, the trade progressively became thinner, more complicated, the Chinese authorities started harassing the Indian traders until finally in 1962, the trade exchanges completely stopped.
The entire Himalayan belt from the Karakoram Pass to eastern Arunachal had lived for centuries from the trade with Tibet. Is Beijing concerned about this?
As the result of the 1962 border war and the non-renewal of the agreement earlier in the year, exchanges between Tibet and India came to an end (the closing of the Indian Consulate in Kashgar had killed the trade with Xinjiang and Central Asia, nine years earlier).
It is only after the visit of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to China in December 1988 that a “Protocol for Resumption of Border Trade” was signed. In July 2006, Nathu La in Sikkim was added to Shipki La and Lipulekh Pass, which were opened in the 1990s. Although Nathu La is doing much better than the two others ports, trade remains rather limited while the rest of the Himalayan belt is hermetically closed.
Nawang Rigzin Jora, the Leh MLA admitted that it is China, which blocks the issue: “(China) may have their own reasons.” However he noted, “The safest route (to the Kailash via Demchok) is through Leh. You can fly to Leh, take one or two days to acclimatise and then drive up to Kailash Mansarovar.” Why not open Demchok? Ask the Chinese!
While China is speaking of “soft borders” and “ancient trade routes”, Beijing is tightening its grip on the Himalaya: A new “Border Resident New Identity Card” (BRNIC) for people living near the Indian borders (as well as on the frontiers of Korea and Nepal) has been introduced. The BRNIC can be obtained online, its introduction will strengthen the Chinese control in the region .
In the meantime, China has decided to pump $24.8 billion into laying new highways in Xinjiang region to improve connectivity with Pakistan.
Zhang Chunlin, director of the Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission recently stated, “Without the highways, oil, coal and agricultural products of Xinjiang cannot be shipped out of the region smoothly and logistics costs will remain high.”
There is another aspect to it; China is planning a second highway linking Tibet to the restive Muslim province of Xinjiang. The new road will link the NH 219 cutting across western Tibet and Aksai Chin and the NH 315, running through southern Xinjiang to Xining in Qinghai province. It has serious strategic implications for India as a couple of roads branch off to the Indian border (to Purang at the trijunction between Tibet, Nepal and India in particular).
Before discussing any Indian participation to the OBOR or the CPEC, the issue of reopening the Himalaya for trade and pilgrimage should come on the negotiating table.

Trading business against human rights

China says that the Foreign Trade of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is progressing well.
Obviously, this is not thanks to the trade exchanges with India. 
The border trade has been stagnating for years.
In the article on China Tibet Online, He Gang, a researcher with Tibet Academy of Social Sciences states that "Tibetan foreign trades surge benefits from the steady conditions of neighboring countries, such as Nepal." 
In fact, it is with Nepal only. The opening a Consulate of Nepal in Lhasa is probably responsible for this 'surge'.  
But is has a price. 
In April, AsiaNews reported: "To help Kathmandu restore its diplomatic missions, Beijing is financing the construction of three new buildings in the Nepalese Consulate in Lhasa (Tibet). In the rest of the world Nepal's embassies are crumbling for lack of funds. The project was recently approved. The buildings will house the residence of the consul and his staff."
Already in 2009, Beijing had announced it would pay 1,80,000 Euros for the Consulate of Nepal in the Tibetan capital. 
A Memorandum of Understanding was signed in November 2011 between Kathmandu and the Government of the Tibet Autonomous Region providing, in addition to restoration of the buildings, giving an even wider representation of the Nepalis State in Tibet. Let us not forget that Nepal is the only country which has a consulate in Tibet.
AsiaNews affirms that in Kathmandu, not everyone is happy with the latest Chinese offers; some Nepalese politicians even accused Beijing of wanting to control the bilateral relations in its favour and increase the clampdown on Tibetan exiles in Nepal.
It quoted Lok Raj Baral, former ambassador of Nepal to India: "The Maoist government should limit itself to applying for funding at home, it should not accept foreign funding for its diplomatic missions. How is it possible to defend national interests when working inside a building paid for with money from the host country? "
Bheki Bahadur Thapa, former Minister for Foreign Affairs, stated that Kathmandu is increasingly severe with the exiled Tibetans and a consulate in Lhasa built with Chinese money poses a serious risk to the lives of the Tibetans. 

As mentioned yesterday on this blog, Beijing has rejected New Delhi’s request to allow India to open a consulate in Lhasa. India’s demand was in response to China’s desire to have a consulate in Chennai. Instead, Beijing has said that Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province, could be an alternative.
Chengdu will certainly not help 'foreign trade' with Tibet.
Beijing would perhaps grant India's demand, would New Delhi accept to restrict the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans in exile or harass them like the Nepal Government does. 
In exchange of a clampdown on the Tibetans in India, China would probably pay for a building for the Indian Consulate in Lhasa (though the old building, Dekyi Lingka still exists and still belongs to India).
But why should Delhi agree to such anti-democratic and inhuman action against the Tibetan refugees.
By the way, India is more and more frustrated with the bilateral trade talks with China, initiated by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in December 2010, when he visited New Delhi. 
During the last fiscal year ended March 31, the trade deficit of India with China jumped 42 percent to about $40 billion.
Even India’s Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said that he is 'very concerned' about the imbalance with China
Asia Pacific Finance News said: "The trade woes of India has become economic threat and the current account deficit with the world is 4.5 percent of GDP in the quarter ended March 31, which is an all-time high. This has also resulted in sharp depreciation of rupee."
A complicate issue, but its is not worth for India, trading business against human rights.

Foreign trades boost Tibetan economic growth
China Tibet Online 
Lucy Su
2012-08-03
The foreign trade of Tibet continues rising in the first half of this year with total export-import volume reaching more than 1 billion US dollars, increasing by 1.7 times from the same period last year and contributing significantly to Tibetan economic growth, according to Xinhua News Agency.
According to the statistics, local GDP of Tibet reached 28.72 billion yuan, increasing by 11.3 percent from that of the previous year; the growth rate is 3.5 percent points higher than the national average, and keeps stable growth.
"It is the surge of foreign trades that drives Tibetan local GDP growth in the first six months of 2012,” said He Gang, a researcher with Tibet Academy of Social Sciences.
According to He, Tibetan foreign trades surge benefits from the steady conditions of neighboring countries, such as Nepal.
During the first six months, Tibetan foreign trades with Nepal amounts to 530 million US dollars, increasing by 79.5 percent, according to Lhasa Custom.
The improvement of Tibetan transportation network, especially the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, and development of Tibetan characteristic and competitive industries also contribute a lot.
Meanwhile, investments also boost Tibet’s developments, thanks to a series of major projects carried out at the beginning of this year, said Dorje Dradul, deputy director general of Tibet Bureau of Statistics.

French connection or a Greek tragedy?

My article French connection or a Greek tragedy? was published in The Pioneer on July 19.

Hit by an economic slowdown, India has to choose between tough decisions to mend the situation or simply dawdle in misplaced hope and worsen the crisis. Europe provides a lesson for our policy-makers.

The refrain is, ‘Ça va mal’ (it’s bad). This is something that you can often hear in France these days.
Even the serious New York Times admitted: “In France, austerity reaches Government cars and wine”, signs for the ‘common Frenchman’ that the situation is not rosy.
No more glamorous ‘bling-bling’ in the Elysée Palace, like in President Nicolas Sarkozy’s days!
Pointing to the hungry crowds of aam aadmis, the last Queen of France Marie Antoinette would have said: “Give them brioche, if they don’t have bread”. Did she really say it? The slogan nevertheless remains the hallmark of the Ancient Regime.
Today, the ‘new regime’ of President François Hollande has decided to impose a ‘sober’ regime to give bread to all.
It is even rumoured that Champagne, the sacrosanct beverage to celebrate important Republican occasions, will be replaced by Muscadet, a white French wine produced in the Pays de Loire region. C’est la vie!
The Hollande presidency will certainly lack Sarkozy’s glamour.
It started when Mr Hollande left his Paris residence for the swearing-in ceremony at the Elysée Palace. Instead of a long convoy with tens of luxurious cars, blaring sirens and a motorcade opening the road, Mr Hollande had a mini convoy which stopped at the red lights in Paris.
The cartoonists loved the story; the next day Mr Hollande was shown on cartoons arriving at his new residence, driving a ‘deux-cheveaux’, the emblematic 1950’s Citroen ‘car of the people’.
This made me dream: When the Indian Prime Minister recently visited Puducherry (where I live), the traffic was blocked for  nearly two days, creating an incredible nuisance to the general public. But our leaders in India are not bothered about these ‘details’.
Today in France, thanks to the economic crisis, Ministers of State no longer have bodyguards, even the staff in charge of the President’s security has been reduced by a third.
Another sign of the ‘bad’ times: Mr Hollande used the Thalis, the fast train between Paris and Brussels, to attend a meeting of the European Union’s Heads of State. His Ministers are also strongly advised to use the train, whenever it is possible. The well-equipped presidential jet (at one time nick-named, Sarko One, in comparison to the Air Force One), will now often remain parked on the tarmac of an Air Force base near Paris.
The President has also stopped using the fancy Presidential Citroen C6; he drives in a far cheaper Citroen DS5 diesel hybrid. He has even reduced the number of his official drivers from three to two.
Cecile Duflot, the Minister for Environment, has ordered four ‘official’ bicycles for her and her staff. It is difficult to imagine the  Indian Union Minister for Environment and Forests moving around on an electric bike in Delhi. One can always argue that the roads are more dangerous in India. It is true.
On June 28, the French Prime Minister’s Office published a communique on the ‘budget framework’: The Government staff will have to be reduced by 2.5 per cent per year from 2013 to 2015. Only four priority Ministries are exempted (education, police, justice and paramilitary forces).
In 2013, general expenses of the ministries (staff quarters, vehicles, equipment etc) will be reduced by seven per cent in comparison to the 2012’s budget, then four per cent in 2014 and 2015. It practically means a cut of 19 billons Euros for 2012.
The French will obviously grumble confronted with such a tough situation. In any case, most surveys rate the descendants of the Gaulish tribes as the greatest grumblers in the world. The situation is however quite alarming.
In India, some will say, it is their Karma; the colonisers pay today for exploiting Africa or Asia in the past. The messy economic situation in India is also blamed on the present predicament in Europe; even the Indian Prime Minister recently declared: “The world is passing through troubled times. The financial and economic crisis that has gripped Europe in recent years has many important lessons and implications for us.”
When he attended the G-20 in Mexico, Mr Manmohan Singh linked the downfall of the rupees and India’s economic slowdown to the difficulties in Europe.
This is wrong. Europe is in the sluggishness mostly due to mismanaged fiscal policies, simply spending more than it earned. Is India doing differently?
Pierre Sellal, the French Foreign Secretary (Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) paid a discreet visit to Delhi at the time of the G-20 meet.
In a speech organised by the ORF Foundation, he explained: “All in all, despite the scale of the challenges it was facing, the eurozone was able to take the required decisions on fiscal discipline to address the difficulties experienced by some of its members and to avert contagion and a negative impact on world growth.”
Take another example. Mr Hollande has cut the salaries of his Ministers by 30 per cent; including his own (from $26,000 to $18,000 per month). It might be laughable, but it is a mathematical certitude that the present ‘crisis’ can only be solved by a better fiscal discipline; whether it is in Europe, in America or India.
Laurence Parisot, the boss of the MEDEF, the main French federation of industries however fears ‘a programmed strangulation’. It is a difficult dilemma.
India has not yet faced these thorny questions, though Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services recently downgraded India to a poor ‘BBB’. A report titled “Will India Be the First BRIC Fallen Angel?” was dismissed by the then Finance Minister.
According to Standard & Poor’s, India could lose its ‘investment grade’ status because of a “divided leadership at the Centre unable to usher economic reforms to spur growth and boost investments”. The agency added that the Prime Minister often appears “to have limited ability to influence his Cabinet colleagues and proceed with liberalisation policies”.
Whether the new Finance Minister is able to unleash ‘animal spirits’ is to be seen. The fact, however, remains that India will have to do some efforts to rein in its fiscal deficit. It is of course difficult to conceive today a 30 per cent cut in the MPs’ and MLAs’ salaries as it has been done in France (although surveys show that amongst 2,322 out of 4,835 MPs/MLAs, 48 per cent are crorepatis), Government wastage could certainly be looked into (and will be have to be looked into).
This means that the ‘Centre’s allocations’ to unruly and greedy regional satraps will have eventually to be reduced.
In the years to come, no country, no region will escape a better management of the ‘collective’ assets of the nation or region.
It is better to start early than late in the day, like Greece.