Is China building a new front in the Himalayas?

My article Is China building a new front in the Himalayas? appeared a few days ago in The Daily Guardian

Here is the link...

China is apparently planning to build a hydropower project over the Tsangpo river in Tibet —a project which it had previously assured was unlikely to happen. Not only is it another example of the nation being untrustworthy, it is also worrying, given that the river flows into Indian territory as the mighty Brahmaputra and the planned site is a highly seismic zone.
 

The unthinkable has happened. The Global Times has announced: “China to build historic Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) River hydropower project in Tibet.” The dam or hydropower plant (HPP) around the Great Bend of the river, known as the Siang, which in India is called the Brahmaputra, has been the object of thousands of articles. Most serious analysts concluded that it was not doable, not feasible and would never happen. It has often been associated with the diversion of the river towards the Qinghai province and mainland China as well as the revival of the Yellow river.
Now, it appears that the new emperor has decided to go for it. “China will build a hydropower project on the Yarlung Zangbo river, one of the major waters in Asia that also passes through India and Bangladesh, and the head of the involved company said that the project could serve to maintain water resources and domestic security,” wrote the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China.
The project would be part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and China’s long-term objectives for 2035. Quoting Yan Zhiyong, chairman of the Power Construction Corp of China, or POWERCHINA, the Global Times noted: “There is no parallel in history… it will be a historic opportunity for the Chinese hydropower industry.”
The announcement has to be seen in the context of the confrontation in Ladakh. Even if the HPP does not come up immediately, it is good Information Warfare (IW) for Beijing “to scare the Indian monkey”.
It is a fact that China had always denied that they would do it. If Beijing does go for it, it would be another example showing that the present regime cannot be trusted.
In November 2006, as President Hu Jintao was leaving India after a state visit, the Chinese Minister for Water Resources, Wang Shucheng, had categorically stated that the proposal of the dam and diversion was “unnecessary, unfeasible and unscientific”. He had added that it had no government backing: “There is no need for such dramatic and unscientific projects.” However, he had admitted, “There may be some retired officials that support the plan, but they’re not the experts advising the government.” Thus, it had not been a point blank denial as the minister had admitted that the project existed on paper. Have the ‘experts’ changed their mind now?
It is necessary to look at the project in more detail.
Yan Zhiyong explained that the hydropower exploitation on the trans-boundary river could provide 300 billion kWh of clean, renewable and zero-carbon electricity annually. The project would play a significant role in realising China’s goal of reaching a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, and it could annually generate an income of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion).
Yang added that POWERCHINA already signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Tibetan Autonomous Region government after meeting Party Secretary Wu Yingjie.
The Global Times mentioned that the hydropower plant would have thrice the capacity of the Three Gorges dam (which has an installed capacity of 22,500 Mw), which would mean around 60,000 Mw or 60 Gw.
There is no doubt that China’s dam lobby is pushing hard for the mega plant, forgetting that the area is one of the most highly seismic regions of the planet.
The Times in London reported the August 15, 1950 earthquake—which had its epicentre not far away, in Rima in Tibet, just north of the McMahon Line in the Lohit Valley—saying, “Seismographs the world over one day last fortnight registered an earthquake so violent that the record of its convulsions ran off the paper… Shipping on the lower Brahmaputra River (whose source is in the Himalayas) was dislocated by a tide of tens of thousands of uprooted trees and the bodies of tigers, elephants and other wild life borne down the river from the earthquake area. The waters of the Brahmaputra, blackened with sulphur that the quake had churned up from the earth’s innards, cast up millions of dead and dying fish.”

 The purported HPP would be located in an area known as Pemaokoe, one of the last virgin areas of the world. For the Tibetans, it is as sacred as Mt Kailash and Lake Mansarowar, and Goddess Dorjee Phagmo, Tibet’s protector, is said to dwell there.
More on the project could be gathered from Chinese sources: the dam would be located at Deyang, a few kilometres upstream of Pai in Nyingchi Prefecture, and the terminal (power station) would be at Shirang, a few kilometres from the Indian border (Bishing). If completed, it will be the largest hydropower station in the world.
The retinue would not be more than 50 or 60 metres high. If higher, the reservoir could flood the military installations in Bayi, the main PLA cantonment in Southern Tibet and the urban area of Nyingchi town.
The diversion towards Shirang would use several diversion pipes and tunnels and then high-pressure pipes to divert water back in the Tsangpo, close to the McMahon Line which is the LAC.
It would be a run of the river project (which means the water just goes through the turbines after having been diverted through mega pipes or tunnels). The diversion or short-cut between the beginning and the end of the gorges (known as the Great Bend) would be between 30 and 40 km, cutting short the 260 km course of the Tsangpo.
Electricity would be produced by the huge difference of altitude between Pai Town, located at 2,930 metres above sea level (ASL) and Shirang near the Indian border at 600 metres ASL only. The drop would be between 2,200 and 2,400 metres, depending on the location of the last power station. It is said that water could flow at the rate of 3,000 cubic metres per second. As the turbines may not be able to withstand the pressure if there is only one station downstream, the Chinese engineers have apparently decided to have 6 or 9 substations (if 6, each would have 400 m altitude difference between them). Some also speak of a ‘ladder’ project. Apart from the incredibly difficult terrain, another problem lies in evacuating the power generated.
The project may be over in 2035 (the new dream date for the megalomaniac leaders in Beijing).
Many Chinese experts have suggested that the HPP project will be linked with the diversion of the Tsangpo towards the mainland. The project, called Hongqi or Red Flag, is spearheaded by Prof Wang Hua of Tsinghua University, who is also Chairman of the Expert Group on Dialogue for the ‘Red Flag River Issue’. When the university had reopened after the Cultural Revolution, on the same benches was Chen Xi, today a member of the Politburo. Wang and Chen know each other from the 1970s. Also studying in Tsinghua University at the same time was one Xi Jinping. There is no doubt that the diversion protagonists are well-connected—and that it is extremely worrying for India.

Muddy Waters and Information Warfare

Rescuers checking a blocked road in Mainling County not far from the Indian border

An excellent article ('Muddy Siang is sign of danger ahead, wake up call for Indian authorities') on the recent developments on the Yarlung Tsangpo/Siang/ Brahmaputra has been published by the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP).
It is worth reading.
Two important questions have been raised.
Why China kept quiet if it was ‘only’ a earthquake and why India remained ‘unaware’ when it was not too difficult to ‘know’ the facts with remote satellite imagery.
SANDRP has answered the second question (or at least has questioned the role of the Indian officials).

But why has China kept silent?
According to the report quoted by SANDRP, a huge amount of debris has accumulated and blocked three locations, forming natural dams on the river across a 12-kilometre stretch in Tibet. It was cause by a 6.4 (or 6.9) earthquake in the Great Bend region. It darkened the waters of the Yarlung Tsangpo.
In November, Xinhua quoted the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) to report that no casualty had occurred “after a 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Nyingchi, southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region at 6:34 a.m. on November 18.”

The agency added that the quake caused "power failures and building damages in a number of villages in [around] the epicenter in Nyingchi City. "
The epicenter was located at 29.75 degrees north latitude and 95.02 degrees east longitude; it struck at a depth of about 10 km and several minor aftershocks were felt.
Xinhua quoted Pasang Tsering, Communist Party chief in Tashigang Village of Lunang Township, saying that he could not stand still in his house when the quake struck: “Six houses in his village had damages from the jolt.”
Incidentally, Lunang (or Lulang) is the newest town in Tibet: “It was built with a total investment of more than 3 billion yuan (436 million U.S. dollars). Here tourists can enjoy splendid natural scenery, various traditions and high-level infrastructure,” wrote Xinhua.

Lunang (or Lulang) new town

According to the Chinese press agency: “Lunang, meaning ‘Dragon King Valley’ in Tibetan, sits near the Sichuan-Tibet Highway. The small town is 3,300 meters above the sea level and is surrounded by Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, Mount Namjabarwa [Mt Namcha Barwa near the Great Bend] and many other scenic spots. It is known as the most beautiful town in Nyingchi.”
The state of the 'new' Town is unknown.

China finally speaks
Yesterday, Hua Chunying, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, known for her sharp tongue during the Doklam incident, said that China “will maintain communication with India over the transboundary rivers in the wake of lakes and dams being formed on the Yarlung Tsangpo due to earthquakes in Tibet”.
Ms Hua stated: “According to verification by the relevant authorities, I can tell you that this lake is to the east section of the China-India boundary. It is caused by natural factors, it is not man-made."
She added: “I noticed that Indian professional authorities have made an analysis and clarification on this. We hope the Indian media will not make a groundless speculation on this and the Chinese side will, through the existing channels, maintain communication with the Indian side on the cross-border rivers.”
As mentioned earlier on this blog, following the Doklam incident in June, China did not respect its agreements with India to share the data of the Yarlung Tsangpo and the Sutlej.

More details are out
The China Seismological Bureau is said to have launch "a third-degree emergency response mechanism, holding a teleconference to monitor an investigation into the situation and sending experts to the quake-hit region."
Why was India not informed?
The Bureau noted that the highest seismic intensity of the quake affected an area of 500 square meters, which is sparsely populated.
According to the Bureau's findings, the tremors triggered falling rocks, blocking a highway linking Nyingchi's city proper with Tangmai, one of the quake-hit townships. Armed police were called to clear the road.

The Fire Department of the Ministry of Public Security stated that fire fighters from Nyingchi city were working in Tangmai Township: "Another team of rescuers will take helicopter to Gyalha village in the epicenter, after road to the village was blocked by rocks." The Ministry of Transport has also dispatched staff to investigate the safety condition of bridges in the quake-hit area.
The report added: "The Tibet subsidiaries of Chinese telecom providers China Mobile and China Tower said that their networks are operating normally. But the Tibet branch of China Telecom reported the disruption of an optical cable for broadband service in Pome and Zayul counties."
Why nothing was said on the three new lakes affecting the Siang/Brahmaputra?

Bayi, PLA's HQ

A  second earthquake
The Chinese media later reported that a second earthquake took place on December 20, 2017. Pictures showing Bayi town of Nyingchi City appeared in the Chinese press.
Incidentally, Bayi (8-1 or August 1) is the HQ of the PLA in Southern Tibet; August 1 being the date-anniversary of the foundation of the PLA in 1929.
A caption said: “No casualties were reported as of 11 a.m., following two earthquakes in Tibet early Wednesday morning [December 20]. A magnitude 5 earthquake jolted Bayi District of Nyingchi City at 1:40 a.m., according to the China Earthquake Networks Center. At 4:08 a.m., a magnitude 3.2 earthquake hit the same region.”

The Three Warfares
China has kept quiet because post Doklam, Beijing started an information war with India.
This began by an article planted in The South China Morning Post.
On October 29, Jack Ma’s newspaper reported that “Chinese engineers are testing techniques that could be used to build a 1,000km tunnel – the world’s longest – to carry water from Tibet to Xinjiang. …The proposed tunnel, which would drop down from the world’s highest plateau in multiple sections connected by waterfalls, would ‘turn Xinjiang into California’, one geotechnical engineer said.”
The idea was to create hysteria in India, which is not difficult.
Three weeks later, the earthquake triggered a tsunami of alarmist ‘expert’ views in the Indian press.
China decided to remain silent. Ms Hua can now say “We hope the Indian media will not make a groundless speculation on this.” But who triggered the ‘groundless speculations’?
By the end of November, Beijing could have mentioned the earthquake as the source of the black colour of the Siang, but the Chinese leadership preferred to let the Indian media ...and politicians speculate.
Indian needs to be prepared for more Information Warfare.

Bayi ('August 1') town

 

The earthquake was epicentered east of the Namcha Barwa

A Chinese train to the Indian Border (updated)

Yesterday, Xinhua announced that "China's top economic planning agency has approved plans to build three rail lines, at a cost of about 250 billion yuan (40 billion U.S. dollars)."
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the construction of the longest line, (costing some 20 billion yuan), will carry coal on 1,800 km from the city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia to Ji'an in the eastern province of Jiangxi. It will take five years to complete.
Another project is a 137 km passenger line linking Datong in north China's Shanxi Province with Zhangjiakou in neighboring Hebei.
And finally, but it is not news, it is only a confirmation: a 402 km linking Shigatse (via Lhasa?) to Nyingchi, north of Arunachal Pradesh.
Xinhua says: "Policymakers have been accelerating investment in infrastructure to stabilize growth in recent months."
Xinhua later reported: "According to the plan approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Lhasa to Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet railway runs 402 km from Nyingchi to Xierong, a stop on the Lhasa-Shigatse line. The 32-km section from Xierong [near Lhasa-Gongkar airport] to Lhasa will be electrified."
Xinhua provides further details about this most strategic new railway line to Arunachal border.
The Tibet project will cost 36.6 billion yuan (6 billion US dollars) and take seven years to complete (2021). The state-owned China Railway Corporation will the builder and operator.
The line is designed for a speed of 160 km per hour for passenger trains.
The cargo capacity will be 10 million tonnes per year.
Yang Yulin, a Tibet railway official told Xinhua: "The Lhasa to Nyingchi railway section is conducive to improving the regional road network and transportation capacity to better integrate Tibet with other parts of China."
Wang Daiyuan of the Tibet Academy of Social Sciences asserted that after completion "the Sichuan-Tibet railway will form a ring with the Qinghai-Tibet railway, which will bring more economic benefit."
A ring around India's frontiers?
Of course, the Chinese authorities only emphasized the development of tourism.
Quoting Wang, Xinhua says: "Transport has long been a bottleneck for tourism in Tibet. More tourists will be able to visit Tibet via the Sichuan-Tibet railway."
Tourist arrivals in Tibet reached 12.9 million in 2103 from 1.8 million in 2005. Tibet's gross domestic product reached 80 billion yuan in 2013, compared with 34 billion yuan in 2006.
The new railway line is part of a network linking Lhasa to the borders of India and Nepal. It will connect Lhasa, Shigatse with Kyirong, Yatung (Sikkim border), Jilung (near Mt. Everest) and Nyalam (near Dram border port with Nepal).
The next stage will probably be a railway line through the Aksai Chin linking Tibet (Lhasa) to Xinjiang (Kashar and Urumchi).
Though it has not been announced as yet, it is bound to happen.

In January 2014, I already mentioned the project on this blog. I wrote:

It is most strategic move of the year.
China has officially announced that the construction of the Lhasa-Nyingchi [or Nyingtri] railway line, will start in 2014.
For India, it is an extremely serious (though expected) development. 
Indian Army Chief Bikram Singh has just admitted 'inadequacy' in the roads and rail infrastructure along the borders with China, while assuring the Indian public that "the government is working to build the facilities there and had identified projects".

Bayi, the PLA town near the Indian border
will be served by the train

During his press conference, General Singh stated : "Only last year, the Centre had allocated Rs 9,200 crore for infrastructure along the borders with China and a Cabinet Committee on Security note had been prepared for another Rs 28,000-crore worth of projects for the 12th and the 13th Five-year Plans".
Too little, too late to counter China which will bring the train near its border with India, north of the McMahon line.
I earlier wrote about Bayi, 'The Main Military Hub in Tibet'.
Today, Xinhua says:

A new railway connecting Lhasa and its southeastern neighbor Nyingchi [Nyingtri] Prefecture is going to be built in 2014, according to Losang Jamcan, [Lobsang Gyaltsen] chairman of the Tibet Autonomous Region, on Jan. 10, 2014.
Losang Jamcan made the announcement during the government work report in the second session of the 10th Tibet Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Lhasa, from Jan. 8 to Jan. 12.
Project of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway is now at the feasibility study stage with two designs going southward and northward under discussion.
The Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway marks the second extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, following the Lhasa-Shigatse Railway terminating at Shigatse, the second largest city in Tibet.
The two railways of equal importance will present different views with regard to their different geographical and climate conditions, according to Losang Jamcan.

India has to wake up.

The Train on its way to Southern Tibet

While the Indian press says that AK Antony has been the worst ever Indian Defence Minister (read India Today's article) and the Minister himself says he has done so much for Indian defense preparedness, China is laying railway lines in Tibet at a frantic pace.
The latest section to be started in September will link Nyingchi (or Nyingtri in Tibetan), north of the McMahon Line to Lhasa (and the mainland). China Tibet Online yesterday reported 'Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway to be launched within the year'.
According to another website, ChinaTibetnews.com: "Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway is expected to start construction within 2014 soon after the completion of Lhasa-Shigatse Railway construction that is scheduled in September."
For the first time, details are given about the strategic line: "Running 433 kilometers and covering 34 stations including nine major ones, Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway will build 402-kilometer new lines, which is designed to have a speed of 160 kilometer per hour with a declared investment of 5.4 billion US dollars."
Yang Yulin, a deputy director of railway office of Tibet explained that the Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway will start from the Shelrong Station on the Lhasa-Shigatse Railway (to be completed in September); it will then cross the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra) and heads towards the Lhoka Prefecture to finally arrive in Nyingchi.
The article admits that today, the communication and traffic with Nyingchi and the Lhoka Prefecture depends only the highway and an airport, near Bayi town (the main PLA cantonment in Southern Tibet) in Nyingchi Prefecture.
China Tibet Online asserts that this line of communication suffers from a number of disruptions as "special weather conditions may break down the land and air routes occasionally".
More interestingly, it adds: "the abundant natural resources also call for a stronger transportation support of the area."
'The abundant natural resources' probably refers to the rich mineral resources of Tibet which are wildly exploited, but also to the power generation potential of the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra. See my article on the diversion of the river. 
It means that everything is slowly coming into place to make the mega project feasible.
The rest of the article is more obscure. It says: "Furthermore, a world-class landscape gallery would be formed after the construction of Lhasa-Nyingchi Railway, which will connect not only the tourism resources along the line, but also famous scenic areas such as Jiuzhaigou Valley [Valley of Nine Villages, a nature reserve in northern Sichuan], Yellow Dragon Scenic Area [Huanglong, a scenic area of and historic interest in northwest Sichuan], the Qinghai Lake [Kokonor lake], as well as tourist cities including Chengdu, Dali and Lijiang [both Yunnan], through a railway network covering Chengdu-Nyingchi Railway, Yunnan-Tibet Railway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway and Lhasa-Shigatse Railway."
It probably signifies that China is planning to complete the loop, Xining-Lhasa-Shigatse-Nyingchi-Chengdu-Kunming, to promote tourism and harness Tibet's rich natural resources.