The sorry state of affairs in Arunachal - A deadly cocktail

Two months ago, I wrote on this blog "The sorry state of affairs in Tawang - A deadly cocktail".
Today, I changed the title "The sorry state of affairs in Arunachal - A deadly cocktail."
The news just came in that Kalikho Pul, former Arunachal Chief Minister, was found dead at his residence in Itanagar.
It is a tragedy for the border State.
It is a tragedy for India,
One should not forget that the entire State of Arunachal Pradesh is today claimed by China.
Though Beijing claims part of Ladakh (J&K), Himachal Pradesh (near Shipki-la), Uttarakhand (Barahoti, etc), in the case of Arunachal, it is the entire State which is called 'Southern Tibet' by Beijing.
Dirty politics is happening everywhere, but when it happens in Arunachal, it has more serious implications for India.
In February, Pul had led a group of dissident MLAs from Congress against Chief Minister Nabam Tuki and after President’s Rule was revoked on February 19, Pul was sworn in as Chief Minister.
On July 13, a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court quashed Arunachal Pradesh Governor J.P. Rajkhowa's decision to advance the Assembly session from January 14, 2016 to December 16, 2015, a move which had culminated in the declaration of President's rule on January 26. 
Subsequently, Pul had to resign as Chief Minister.

My article of June 2016
In March 2014, Arunachal Pradesh could have entered the Guinness Book of Records: eleven Congress candidates, including the chief Minister Nabam Tuki, were elected unopposed to the local 60-member Assembly.
Even some local BJP leaders ‘paved’ the way for the Congress candidates; for example Chief Minister Nabam Tuki was left without a rival in the Sagalee seat after his lone BJP rival Nabam Tade withdrew his nomination.
Among other Congress candidates elected unopposed were Rural Development Minister Tanga Byaling (Nacho) Tourism Minister Pema Khandu (Mukto in Tawang district), Parliamentary Secretary Nabam Rebia (Doimukh), former Minister Lombo Tayeng (Mebo), sitting MLAs Phurpa Tsering (Dirang), Punji Mara (Taliha), Bamang Felix (Nyapin) and Takam Pario (Palin), besides first-timer Mama Natung from Seppa West.
Was it a coincidence that ten out of eleven of these assembly seats were located in Arunachal West parliamentary constituency?
When one knows that the State is still claimed by China, this created quite an extraordinary situation, a deeply worrying one.
At that time, two words were whispered in the social media circles: ‘Dam Money’.
This came back to mind when early last month, two people, including a Buddhist monk, were killed after the police opened fire in Tawang district of Arunachal. Officially, the police fired at some anti-dam activists trying to barge into a police station demanding the release of a monk who had spearheaded the anti-dam campaign.
A few days later, Chief Minister Kalikho Pul rushed to Delhi to meet Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh to tell him that the situation had returned to normal after a peace committee was formed.
Very few believed him.
A few weeks before the tragedy, Kalikho Pul had been making a case for fast-tracking environmental clearances for hydropower projects.
He had spoken at the conference ‘Hydro power at crossroads – tapping the untapped’, organized by Associated Chambers of Commerce of India (ASSOCHAM), stating that hydropower would be developed in an optimal manner with the environmental impact and human displacement would be reduced to the absolute minimal.
He said that the 156 dams being planned would generate over 50,000 mega watts of power; he however admitted that “almost all projects are still in the planning stages and most are awaiting environmental clearances.”
While environmentalists and local communities argued that these dams would damage the environment, Pul affirmed that hydropower is “the only viable source for the resource strapped state which could provide sustainable means of livelihood.”
Many believe that it would only create ‘sustainable means of livelihood’ for the politicians …to be elected unopposed during the next elections.
Pul however promised that the opinion of the stakeholders would be taken into consideration.

Government to reconsider policies
The killing of the two persons forced the government to reconsider some of its policies; the first to pay the bill were the Tawang district’s Deputy Commissioner and Superintendent of Police who “failed to assess the situation.” They were suspended, along with the officer in-charge of Tawang police station.
They were made scapegoats.
Deputy Chief Minister Kameng Dolo announced that the officers had not only failed to assess the situation but also did not to take any preventive measures to diffuse the situation: “Prompt action has been initiated in order to defuse the situation, instill confidence among the people and restore normalcy in Tawang,” Dolo said in Itanagar.
But the situation in the border district, closely watched by the Chinese, is not that simple.

Other aspects of the issue
In an article Beneath the fissures, Jarpum Gamlin, the Editor of a local newspaper (and younger brother of former Chief Minister Jarbom Gamlin) wrote: “The agitations in Tawang are not merely a tussle between pro- and anti-dam campaigners. A closer look reveals a power play in the monastery”.
Gamlin explains that the district administration erred by detaining the monk-turned-activist Lama Lobsang Gyatso, general secretary of Save Mon Region Forum (SMRF) under a non-bailable section for the second time within 48 hours.
Gyatso had earlier led a protest against the six-megawatt Mukto Shakangchu hydel project; on April 28, he said to have done worse: he would have defamed Guru Rinpoche, the abbot of Tawang monastery. He was arrested on this charge.
Gamlin commented: “Amid the hullabaloo, word is out that three of the five secretaries at Tawang monastery are seeking the ouster of Guru Rinpoche; the two who support him are Lama Ngawang Tsering and Lama Dorjee Namgey. It is alleged that the rebel monks — Lama Lobsang Phuntsok, Lama Lobsang Thapkey and Lama Sang Leta — have been aiding Lama Lobsang’s campaign against the political and religious establishments.”
Another rumour was that Pema Khandu, son of former Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu, his brother Tsering Tashi and cousin Jambey Tashi who represent the three legislative assembly segments in Tawang district were deeply upset with the SMRF after it won a favourable verdict from the National Green Tribunal (NGT).
The April 7’s NGT decision probably precipitated the  events during the following weeks.
The NGT suspended the environment clearance granted by the Ministry of Environment and Forest for the Nyamjang chu hydropower project in Tawang’s Zemingthang area (the village is located close to the McMahon Line).
The permission to build the 780 MW hydroelectric plant was withdrawn due to the presence black-necked cranes, wintering in a 3-km stretch along the Nyamjang Chhu.
For over four years, the presence of the birds nearby the project area had been debated before the NGT. It appears that it is the first time that a single species has led to the suspension of such a project.
The black-necked crane is a five-foot tall bird, classified 'vulnerable', with only a decreasing world population of 11,000. While it breeds in the Tibetan plateau, it spends its winters in Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh.
The Monpas consider the crane an incarnation of Tsangyang Gyatso, the poet-Sixth Dalai Lama, who was born in Tawang.
It is said the Seventh Dalai Lama was found by following the flight of a white crane after Tsangyang Gyatso passed away (‘White crane lend me your wings. I will not fly far. From Lithang I shall return’, wrote the poet).
Incidentally, the Nyamjang chu flows near the Thagla ridge which was the main bone of contention between India and China and the pretext for the Chinese treacherous attack on India in October 1962.

Dams plus religious rivalry, a deadly cocktail
A section of monks, followers of Lama Lobsang Gyatso, blamed Guru Rinpoche for the deadly firing incident and demanded his resignation.
The Indian Express quoted Lobsang Thapke, the secretary of the monastery saying: “A majority of the lamas (monks) in the monastery has demanded the resignation of Guru Tulku Rinpoche because they feel that he was equally responsible along with the police for the death of two persons.”
Thapke alleged that the abbot could have easily averted the tragedy had the latter asked the police to release Lama Gyatso.
Soon after, Guru Rinpoche resigned following ‘recent turns of events’ in Tawang. The Rinpoche said that he was so deeply hurt and shocked by the recent happening that he had to send his resignation to the Dalai Lama for acceptance “since he solely wishes to dedicate his time for peace, prayers and education of Buddhism and be fully devoted to the people of Mon region.”
To the surprise of all, the Dalai Lama recused himself from appointing a new Abbot for the Tawang Monastery.
In a letter circulated on the social media, the Tibetan leader addressed the Administration and the monks of Tawang Monastery: “I have appointed several Abbots to the Tawang Monastery,” he wrote.
The Dalai Lama continued: “The present Abbot, Guru Rinpoche, at the very young age studied at the Institute of Buddhist Dialectics, Dharamsala. After that he worked and served in my Office. I have selected a well-qualified person as the Abbot of Tawang Monastery. Yet, if there are people who are not satisfied with the Abbot's activities then I shall no longer appoint the Abbot to Tawang Monastery. Instead the Abbot will be directly appointed by the Sera Je Monastery."
It must have been quite a shock for the Monpa population. It is said that it is for the first time in the history of Tawang Monastery, since its inception in 17th Century, that the Abbot will not be appointed by the Dalai Lama.
Does this put the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang later this year in jeopardy?
Probably as the Tibetan leader would not like his presence used by the local politicians and clergy.

The Case of Tsona Rinpoche
Another issue is the mysterious death of Tsona Gontse Rinpoche (alias TGR or TG Rinpoche during his 'political' life). The Lama, who passed away in May 2014, had also taken an anti-dam posture.
At that time, The Times of India reported: “A 47-year-old Buddhist monk from Arunachal Pradesh allegedly committed suicide by hanging himself from a ceiling fan at his sister's house in Vasant Kunj in South Delhi.” The body of Rinpoche was found hanging from the ceiling fan by his sister.
Apparently a suicide note was found from a diary in the room. Rinpoche would have mentioned that he had committed too many sins and that even God would not forgive him.
The police suspected that he was depressed over the defeat of a cousin (another Rinpoche) in the 2014 Assembly elections.
I don’t know about the presumed sins of Rinpoche, but each time I met him, I found in Rinpoche one of the most dynamic young lamas of his generation.
He always wanted to give the Dharma a concrete shape. For him, Buddhism was not a mere philosophy; the Buddha’s teachings had to materialize in the present world.
Whenever I encountered him, Rinpoche had always a new project in mind and he had a capacity to concretely realize his plans.
Some twenty years ago, he organized a kar seva for the Gorsam Stupa, near the Thagla ridge close to the Indo-Tibet border, north of Tawang. He probably thought that the renovated stupa would have the inner power to stop another attack on India. It is indeed impressive.
Then he built a large monastery in Bomdila (where his body will be kept for a week). He also started a Buddhist University, funded by the Ministry of Culture in a lovely environment near Tenga in Arunachal Pradesh.
He was building a huge statue of Tara in Lumla (also north of Tawang), near the Bhutanese border where he had a monastery.
The last time I met him in Delhi, Rinpoche planned to bring the ‘relics’ of the Buddha to Tawang. He had just met the Indian Minister of Culture who had promised to help him. I think that eventually succeeded.
He gave me a lecture on his new ‘baby’, the Sherab Sangpo Society and the concept of ‘Noble Wisdom’.
Rinpoche had become a great defender of the environment (after looking himself after hydropower issues as a minister in the Government of Arunachal).
I could not figure out is why he took the ultimate step. Suicide does not figure anywhere in Buddhist culture; the concept of sin neither.
Tsona, Rinpoche's main monastery is located in Southern Tibet, north of the McMahon line. Rinpoche always remained a strong Indian nationalist. His demise is indeed a great loss for the Monpa people of Tawang and for the Buddhist world.
The Chinese would certainly be delighted to find his reincarnation first. For Beijing, it would be a formidable card to claim Tawang again.

Beijing's interests
Beijing is indeed interested by the messy situation in Tawang.
The 16th ‘Meet in Beijing Arts Festival’ saw the launch of the dance drama "Tsangyang Gyatso," written by Li Cangsang, a Chinese composer who wrote the music for the drama.
As already mentioned, the Sixth Dalai Lama was born in Tawang.
China Tibet News quotes Li saying: “He was a real person yearning for an ordinary life. The combination of the characters of the Buddha, of the ordinary people and Tibetan music, was the most difficult part of my work."
The drama performed at the National Center for the Performing Art in Beijing is based on Tsangyang’s poems and life story.
Even if Beijing is not interested to talk to the Fourteenth, the Communist government is clearly keen to keep the legacy of the Sixth Dalai Lama alive; it is a way to reinforce their claim on Tawang.
The latest happenings in the border district are indeed worrisome.
Today Beijing is gleefully watching the situation deteriorate, waiting to ‘recognize’ not only the next Tsona Rinpoche, but also Tsangyang Gyaltso’s reincarnation.
Delhi should not play with fire by pushing for unwanted hydropower plants so close to the border knowing that it will stir local quarrels further?

'Legal education' on India's border with Tibet

Lebu village, north of the McMahon Line

The Communist website chinanews.com announced: 'Tibet Sets up Night Schools for Monba [Monpa] Ethnic Group’.
It quotes the local authorities in Cona [Tsona] county of Lhoka prefecture, who said that “night schools [will] offer courses on cultural knowledge every Friday, which greatly enhanced the literacy level of the locals.”
The report refers to an area, north of Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh (close to the McMahon line). The last Indian post is located at Khenzimane and the first Tibetan village (mentioned in the article) is Lebu, both villages on the western bank of the Nyamjang chu (river).
The article explains that the Monpa “ethnic group is one of the 56 ethnic groups in China with a population of 50,000. Most of the Monpas live in Tibet’s Lhoka and Nyingchi Prefecture [of Tibet].”
The website does not mention the Monpas living in Tawang district in India.
It however admits that while “the living condition of Monpas has risen considerably due to the development policy for minorities, [however] trapped by the bad traffic and communication [sic], the literacy rate is a little low.”
What is amazing is that this admission comes at time when China speaks of a ‘huge dispute’ with India over Arunachal Pradesh and that it is an ‘undeniable fact’.
The sharp tongue of Hua Chunying, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson recently asserted: “There is a huge dispute in the eastern China-India border. This is an undeniable fact. …China always holds a consistent and clear position on the boundary question. The two sides should make joint efforts to maintain peace tranquility of the border area and create favourable conditions for the negotiation of the boundary question."
Though China continues to claim Arunachal Pradesh as an 'undeniable' part of Tibet (and China), it is surprising that local Communist cadres in the border of Arunachal admit ‘low rate of the literacy’ amongst the Monpas.
Wang Weixi, the director of a police station in Lebu Township [village?] of Tsona county told chinanews.com that “the night school established by the police station has made great use of the human resources and facilities. The officers will open courses to promote legal knowledge in the residents’ leisure time.”
What ‘legal knowledge’ is Wang speaking about?
Is the course on the 1962 War (Lebu village is located a few kilometers away from the Thagla ridge, which saw the first Chinese attack on October 20, 1962)?
Does Wang mean ‘political’ literacy?
In what do the Monpas need to be ‘legally educated’?
At the same time, the White Paper 'on the development path of Tibet', praises China for Tibet's progresses in every fields, especially in education:

There has been comprehensive development in Tibet's education, health and social security. The region took the lead in China to provide its residents with a 15-year free education (three-year preschool, six-year primary school, three-year junior middle school and three-year senior middle school); 99.59 percent of school-age children are enrolled at primary level; the gross enrollment rates for junior middle school and senior middle school have reached 98.75 percent and 72.23 percent, respectively. The quality of the population is also improving. Illiteracy has been wiped out among the young and the middle-aged, and the average length of time spent in education for people above the age of 15 has reached 8.1 years.

Illiteracy has been eradicated elsewhere in Tibet, but not for the Monpas?
Why do they need ‘legal knowledge’?
According to chinanews.com, Richen, a 27-year-old Monpa youth, knows little about legal knowledge. He is quoted as saying that after the training at the night school, he learns about basic legal knowledge.
The website adds: “A small library was built in Lebu Township in 2013. It opens to public every Saturday. More and more local people borrow books from the library and most of them form reading habits.”
Could the Monpas tempted to cross over to India, therefore the need to be 'legally educated?
It could be one of the reasons behind the Friday night's classes at Lebu Police Station.

The Tipping Point and the Mridangam

While a group of scientists of Berkley recently concluded that the planet is getting closer and closer to the tipping point, the Indian Environment Minister, Jayanthi Natarajan said that she was "caught in a tussle between industrial growth and green issues". She added that she feels like a mridangam (a South India musical instrument beaten on both sides).
The Minister explained that the industry is blaming that environment is the "single reason why the country has not been progressing at all".
Well, she need not be a mridangam, she is not Industry Minister and as a Environment Minister, she should keep only the environmental interests of the country (and the planet) in mind.

In the meantime in China, Deputy Environment Minister Wu Xiaoqing has urged caution amid a big dam-building frenzy on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. He said that "lessons of past dam construction in China's southwest must be learned in the face of mounting environmental concerns and resettlement controversies."
According the to The South China Morning Post: 

Wu's remarks, at a media briefing in Beijing came amid heated debate on the building of four mega-dams on the lower reaches of Jinsha (Yangtze) River and the Xiaonanhai dam in Chongqing.
While supporters often tout big dams as effective solutions to poverty and the country's power shortages, critics have pointed to rampant environmental and geological hazards and simmering tensions over relocation disputes among those evicted to make way for dams.

The South China Morning Post however concluded: "But despite widespread public support and its elevation to full ministry status in 2008, environmentalists say Wu's ministry is still largely 'toothless' in blocking big dams built by power companies and backed by the National Development and Reform Commission."

In India too, there is a heated debate.
Take the example of the Nyamjang Chu 780 MW Hydroelectric Power Project (HEP) in Tawang District of Arunachal Pradesh.
The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study of the proposed Nyamjang Chu Project has been conducted. This study was supposed to be carried out according to the Terms of Reference (ToR) defined by the Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC) of Ministry of Environment and Forests of the Government of India. The entire report has been compiled into two parts, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Environmental Management Plan (EMP).
A group of environmentalists and local people have raised objections to the report. I give here one example already briefly mentioned on this blog, the black-necked cranes. The environmentalists' report says:

In recent months the scientific and NGO communities concerned with the ecological health of the region have become increasingly apprehensive about the proposed Nyamjang Chu HEP (along with a dozen other proposed large HEPs) due to the predicted impact they will have upon the forests and more specifically, on rare species that make their habitat in Tawang.

The dam is located at the most strategic location of the country. It is in Ziminthang that the Chinese first attacked China 50 years ago. Beijing has never accepted the McMahon line crossing in the vicinity of the proposed dam. Just read Brigadier John Dalvi's book, the Himalayan Blunder for a most accurate description of the place.
Analysts believe that if there is a 'Kargil- type' operation from the part of China, it will occur around Ziminthang.
To come back to the environmental objections, the report reads:

The proposed dam will be located in the Zimithang Valley, in the exact same vicinity where the endangered and threatened species, Black-neck Crane nigricollis, spends its winter months. Bolstering this argument, locals say that the preferred habitat of the cranes is the short section of the river with wide floodplains, one of the places that will be submerged in the construction of the proposed dam. The project, in fact has yet to apply for the wildlife clearance required under Indian law when a project affects the habitat of such species.

...The ecological scarcity and threatened status of the Black-necked Crane begs the question: How has the project authority dodged required wildlife clearances, in defiance of the Indian law? The Deputy Conservator of Forests (Wildlife) Arunachal Pradesh, P. Ringu, said in January 2012, that one can know the impact of the Nyamjang Chu HEP only after the distance between the wintering habitat and the dam location is known. He thereafter promised that “When the issue comes up for wildlife clearance at the state level, we will take stock”.
Seeing as how the project authority has failed to go through the necessary procedures to meet this requirement and has left its mention out of the PDD (Project Design Document) all together, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) should not hesitate to reject the company’s bid for CDM (Environmental Management Plan).

The Black-necked Cranes might be a 'small' issue, but it is symptomatic of a way of thinking and always privileging the 'development'.
The problem is that the planet is getting closer of the tipping point. 
If one continues to destroy under faked pretexts, ('development' is one, but 'money' is the main one), we may not need 'electricity' any more.
As the Berkeley report warms us: “The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water."
It is not the time to be a 'mridangam' anymore. 

Scientists uncover evidence of impending tipping point for Earth
By Robert Sanders, Media Relations BERKELEY
June 6, 2012
A prestigious group of scientists from around the world is warning that population growth, widespread destruction of natural ecosystems, and climate change may be driving Earth toward an irreversible change in the biosphere, a planet-wide tipping point that would have destructive consequences absent adequate preparation and mitigation.
“It really will be a new world, biologically, at that point,” warns Anthony Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley, and lead author of a review paper appearing in the June 7 issue of the journal Nature. “The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations.”
The Nature paper, in which the scientists compare the biological impact of past incidences of global change with processes under way today and assess evidence for what the future holds, appears in an issue devoted to the environment in advance of the June 20-22 United Nations Rio+20 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The result of such a major shift in the biosphere would be mixed, Barnosky noted, with some plant and animal species disappearing, new mixes of remaining species, and major disruptions in terms of which agricultural crops can grow where.

The paper by 22 internationally known scientists describes an urgent need for better predictive models that are based on a detailed understanding of how the biosphere reacted in the distant past to rapidly changing conditions, including climate and human population growth. In a related development, groundbreaking research to develop the reliable, detailed biological forecasts the paper is calling for is now underway at UC Berkeley. The endeavor, The Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology, or BiGCB, is a massive undertaking involving more than 100 UC Berkeley scientists from an extraordinary range of disciplines that already has received funding: a $2.5 million grant from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and a $1.5 million grant from the Keck Foundation. The paper by Barnosky and others emerged from the first conference convened under the BiGCB’s auspices.
“One key goal of the BiGCB is to understand how plants and animals responded to major shifts in the atmosphere, oceans, and climate in the past, so that scientists can improve their forecasts and policy makers can take the steps necessary to either mitigate or adapt to changes that may be inevitable,” Barnosky said. “Better predictive models will lead to better decisions in terms of protecting the natural resources future generations will rely on for quality of life and prosperity.” Climate change could also lead to global political instability, according to a U.S. Department of Defense study referred to in the Nature paper.
“UC Berkeley is uniquely positioned to conduct this sort of complex, multi-disciplinary research,” said Graham Fleming, UC Berkeley’s vice chancellor for research. “Our world-class museums hold a treasure trove of biological specimens dating back many millennia that tell the story of how our planet has reacted to climate change in the past. That, combined with new technologies and data mining methods used by our distinguished faculty in a broad array of disciplines, will help us decipher the clues to the puzzle of how the biosphere will change as the result of the continued expansion of human activity on our planet.”
One BiGCB project launched last month, with UC Berkeley scientists drilling into Northern California’s Clear Lake, one of the oldest lakes in the world with sediments dating back more than 120,000 years, to determine how past changes in California’s climate impacted local plant and animal populations.
City of Berkeley Mayor Tom Bates, chair of the Bay Area Joint Policy Committee, said the BiGCB “is providing the type of research that policy makers urgently need as we work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare the Bay region to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. To take meaningful actions to protect our region, we first need to understand the serious global and local changes that threaten our natural resources and biodiversity.”
“The Bay Area’s natural systems, which we often take for granted, are absolutely critical to the health and well-being of our people, our economy and the Bay Area’s quality of life,” added Bates.

How close is a global tipping point?
The authors of the Nature review – biologists, ecologists, complex-systems theoreticians, geologists and paleontologists from the United States, Canada, South America and Europe – argue that, although many warning signs are emerging, no one knows how close Earth is to a global tipping point, or if it is inevitable. The scientists urge focused research to identify early warning signs of a global transition and an acceleration of efforts to address the root causes.
“We really do have to be thinking about these global scale tipping points, because even the parts of Earth we are not messing with directly could be prone to some very major changes,” Barnosky said. “And the root cause, ultimately, is human population growth and how many resources each one of us uses.”
Co-author Elizabeth Hadly from Stanford University said “we may already be past these tipping points in particular regions of the world. I just returned from a trip to the high Himalayas in Nepal, where I witnessed families fighting each other with machetes for wood – wood that they would burn to cook their food in one evening. In places where governments are lacking basic infrastructure, people fend for themselves, and biodiversity suffers. We desperately need global leadership for planet Earth.”
The authors note that studies of small-scale ecosystems show that once 50-90 percent of an area has been altered, the entire ecosystem tips irreversibly into a state far different from the original, in terms of the mix of plant and animal species and their interactions. This situation typically is accompanied by species extinctions and a loss of biodiversity.
Currently, to support a population of 7 billion people, about 43 percent of Earth’s land surface has been converted to agricultural or urban use, with roads cutting through much of the remainder. The population is expected to rise to 9 billion by 2045; at that rate, current trends suggest that half Earth’s land surface will be disturbed by 2025. To Barnosky, this is disturbingly close to a global tipping point.
“Can it really happen? Looking into the past tells us unequivocally that, yes, it can really happen. It has happened. The last glacial/interglacial transition 11,700 years ago was an example of that,” he said, noting that animal diversity still has not recovered from extinctions during that time. “I think that if we want to avoid the most unpleasant surprises, we want to stay away from that 50 percent mark.”

Global change biology
The paper emerged from a conference held at UC Berkeley in 2010 to discuss the idea of a global tipping point, and how to recognize and avoid it.
Following that meeting, 22 of the attendees summarized available evidence of past global state-shifts, the current state of threats to the global environment, and what happened after past tipping points.
They concluded that there is an urgent need for global cooperation to reduce world population growth and per-capita resource use, replace fossil fuels with sustainable sources, develop more efficient food production and distribution without taking over more land, and better manage the land and ocean areas not already dominated by humans as reservoirs of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
“Ideally, we want to be able to predict what could be detrimental biological change in time to steer the boat to where we don’t get to those points,” Barnosky said. “My underlying philosophy is that we want to keep Earth, our life support system, at least as healthy as it is today, in terms of supporting humanity, and forecast when we are going in directions that would reduce our quality of life so that we can avoid that.”
“My view is that humanity is at a crossroads now, where we have to make an active choice,” Barnosky said. “One choice is to acknowledge these issues and potential consequences and try to guide the future (in a way we want to). The other choice is just to throw up our hands and say, ‘Let’s just go on as usual and see what happens.’ My guess is, if we take that latter choice, yes, humanity is going to survive, but we are going to see some effects that will seriously degrade the quality of life for our children and grandchildren.”
The work was supported by UC Berkeley’s Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research.