Bloggers speak out in China: But is the govt listening?

My article Bloggers speak out in China: But is the govt listening? is posted on Sify.com website.

Watching China is a fascinating experience! There are surprises at every turn.
Take a train accident that recently killed at least 40 people and injured 200 injured near Wenzhou in the southern Zhejiang province.
A bullet train collided with another which had stopped after being struck by lightning. Xinhua said that a coach of the first train "plunged onto the ground vertically while another coach was hanging on the bridge with one side seriously deformed."  Four cars of the second train derailed off the 20 metre-high bridge.
The government's handling of the accident triggered a heated debate in China. China Daily wrote that it "generated more complaints than compliments".
This is interesting at several levels.
Click on the title to read on...

Daring in the Middle Kingdom

Watching China is fascinating!
Take the train accident which killed at least 40 people (while more than 200 were injured) near Wenzhou, in the southern Zhejiang province. A bullet train collided with another which had stopped after being struck by a lightning. Xinhua said that one coach of the first train “plunged onto the ground vertically while another coach was hanging on the bridge with one side seriously deformed.” Four cars on the second train derailed off the 20 metre-high bridge.
The accident triggered a heated debate in China over the handling of the issue by the government. China Daily wrote that it "generated more complaints than compliments".
It is interesting at several levels.
First, China had planned to build a 13,000-km high-speed railway network by 2012 (and 16,000 km by 2020). There were even plans to increase the speed of the trains to 500 kmph in order to reduce the travel time between major cities. For Beijing, it was a question of pride and also the possibility of lucrative business deals; for example, it was reported that Malaysia was ready to import 228 bullet trains from China.
The incident is also unusual because Beijing had to impose a ban on the coverage of train crash, forcing some newspapers to remove several pages of their edition.
The Publicity Department of the Communist Party issued a censorship order banning all coverage of the crash. The order said: “After the serious rail traffic accident on July 23, overseas and domestic public opinions have become increasingly complicated …all local media, including newspapers, magazines and websites, must rapidly cool down the reports of the incident. You are not allowed to publish any reports or commentaries, except positive news or information released by the authorities."
More unprecedented, several leading Chinese newspapers ignored the ban. The Economic Observer, a respected business weekly, ran an eight-page special issue on the crash with pictures of the wrecked train. The editorial was an open letter to Xiang Weiyi, a two-year-old girl found alive in the train wreckage 21 hours after the accident; both her parents had died: “Yiyi, when you grow up, will we and this country where we live in, be able to honestly tell you about all the love and suffering, anger and doubts around us?”
The Chinese web was agog with the accident.
But what is surprising is that in today’s China more and more people ‘dare’; knowing the possible consequences of their actions or writings, they are ready to take the risk.

Daring in Tibet
Another example of a ‘daring’ action came from the Kham Lithang Gonchen monastery in Eastern Tibet during a week-long religious festival which started on July 15.
Two portraits of the Dalai Lama and the late Panchen Lama were ‘enthroned’ in front of a religious gathering of over 5000 monks and laymen. It was in direct violation of the Government’s orders not to honor the Dalai Lama.
A member of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile in Dharamsala told the website Payul.com received the information that “it was an extremely joyous and emotional moment for the Tibetans who had gathered from all corners of Tibet as they lined up in front of the throne to offer white ceremonial scarves”, adding: “Many people told me that for the first time in their lives they felt as if they really could see His Holiness the Dalai Lama in person and seek his blessings.”
Reports said that monks and nuns from some 100 monasteries of Eastern Tibet had converged to Lithang for the occasion. Member of the restive Kirti Monastery were also invited.
Another case of daring was reported by International Campaign for Tibet: “Urgent appeals have been posted online in Qinghai about lead poisoning in the local water-supply due to mining and smelting operations.”
As nothing was done by the Government, due to corruption, local people appealed on the Net to convey their ‘bitterness’.
On July 23, an anonymous Tibetan blogger wrote: "In recent years the environment at Kumbum Monastery has become awful. The local government and businesses have colluded to build a great many polluting enterprises five kilometers from Kumbum Monastery, and so every time the wind blows or it rains, smoke, dust and foul-smelling air settles down on the roofs and courtyards, and the temples’ golden tiles and wall murals are already corroding."
Diito in Mianyang (Sichuan Province) were the population dared to protest when the manganese pollution in the water had ‘exceeded limits’. The incident was reported by Radio Free Asia.
Netizens were quick to spread the information. A local resident wrote: “The [government] saw from measurements on July 25 that the manganese levels in the Fu River at Mianyang had gone over the limit, yet they didn't report it until 6 pm on July 26. The local population drank contaminated water for one full day." Another blogger stated: "Perhaps it's a bit like the rail crash, where some people resign, and some people apologize?"
The manganese level only decreased after heavy rainstorms. Why? Because the volume of water in upstream reservoirs swelled, diluting the concentration of the chemical: the government had solved the problem!
One understands why the main thrust of the Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping during a recent visit to Tibet was 'stability'.
In each of his speeches, whether it was in front of the Potala in Lhasa; in Nyingtri, near the Indian border or in Shigatse, the seat of the Panchen Lamas, Xi emphasized 'stability'.
In Nyingtri, he told the people: "People of all ethnicities in Tibet need to understand that stability leads to prosperity and separatist activities lead to disasters."
To the PLA, he said "The social stability in Tibet matters to the country's stability, and Tibet's security matters to national security."
He called on the officers to "improve their preparedness in safeguarding the national unity, security and in maintaining the stability in Tibet".
Xi had probably another region in mind: Xinjiang.
During the visit observers noticed the absence of the Chinese-selected Panchen Lama in the entourage of the future Chinese President.
A few days later, Radio Free Asia reported: “The Chinese government attempted to parade its handpicked Panchen Lama this month in a key Tibetan-majority area [Eastern Tibet] but shelved the controversial move following widespread resentment from the people.”
One understands better the embarrassment that the young Lama, who has never been accepted by the majority of Tibetans, could have been for Xi Jinping, if he had been seen in Lhasa along the Vice-President. One year before his 'elevation' to the supreme post of the People's Republic of China, Xi could not take the risk of an incident.

Unrest in Xinjiang
Further north, in Xinjiang, two attacks left at least 19 people dead, including the five attackers, and injured more than 40 others. Chinese officials immediately denounced ‘terrorist attacks’.
It started when two bombs exploded in Kashgar. An hour after the blasts, two ‘terrorists’ hijacked a truck, killed its driver, and drove into a crowd of pedestrians. The Chinese media said the attackers later got out of the truck and began stabbing by-passers. The local government announced that several bystanders were killed, one attacker died and another was apprehended.
Beijing blamed the attack on 'Pakistan-trained terrorists', but the Chinese leadership can't close its eyes any longer and refuse to acknowledge the deep resentment of the local populations whether it is in Tibet, in Xinjiang or elsewhere in the PRC against the policies of the Central Government.
Unless this resentment goes, 'stability' can't be achieved.

Blogging
Thousands of blogs are telling how upset the public is today in China.
On the popular Sina.com microblogging site, one Shen Xiaobao wrote after the train accident: “I can't tell whether the current society is moving forward or backward. If it's moving forward, why does it have to be paid for in lives?"
A search for the words ‘bullet train’ and ‘crash’ on Sina.com showed more than 700,000 postings just one day after the accident. Even the official Communist Party mouthpiece The People's Daily admitted: “China needs development, but not blood GDP”, adding “There has never been a guarantee that we will not be martyrs to speed."
What is questioned in many posts is the Chinese model of development.
Fei-Ling Wang, a professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology told AP: “It will certainly recast the current development model in some more critical light."
Tong Da Huan, a journalist working for the Oriental Morning Post blogged: “China, please slow down your high speed path, wait for your people, wait for your soul, wait for your morality, wait for your conscience. Don’t allow trains to derail, bridges to fall, roads to collapse or houses to cave in. Walk slowly, allow each life to have freedom and respect. And do not leave anyone behind.”
Is the leadership ready to listen to the masses?

Peaceful and Harmonious Chongqing

This article of The South China Morning Post is fascinating.
Chongqing was already made the headlines after Bo Xilai, the CCP rising star and Chongqing Party boss  encouraged the population to sing 'red songs'. This has apparently become the craze all over the Middle Kingdom.
An Op-ed in the China Daily explains:

Younger generations, may not be familiar with 'red songs'. These songs praise, compliment and commemorate the Chinese Communist Party, the People's Republic of China, and the various revolutions led by the Party. On the mainland, it is common that those more than 50 years of age can sing at least one or two 'red songs'. Songs can have evocative titles, such as 'The East is Red', 'There would not be the New China without the Communist Party', and 'Unity is Strength'.

More and more Chinese may know about the 'glorious' past of the Communist Party, but can Chongqing build a 'harmonious society' based on 500,000 cameras made in the US? This is another question.
The article asked: "Should companies be held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political suppression?" 
Business is business. US companies will continue to seriously believe (or pretend to believe) that the cameras will only be used to built a peaceful society signing 'East is Red'. 
What a shame!

Censorship Inc.
Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
JULY 5, 2011
U.S. firms can sell surveillance gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.
Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build an ambitious new surveillance project in China—a citywide network of as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world. Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an area more than 25% larger than New York City.
Cisco Systems and other companies are poised to help build an ambitious new surveillance project in China, a citywide network of cameras that could prevent crime but that human-rights advocates say could target political dissent. Don Clark reports on digits.
The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology to suppress it.
An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems, according to people familiar with the deal.
The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many ways—to tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling products customized for crime control.
Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political suppression?
Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor, Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the matter says it is close.
Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our public infrastructure projects in China."
The company has previously said—including in a June blog post by Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandler—that the company strictly abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.
Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy in the past for its China dealings.
The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S. companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp. Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project, according to a senior H-P executive.
The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.
Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon AB, will ultimately be hired.
Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so. "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights group made up of members of Congress.
Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least 12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today, it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.
Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least 12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today, it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.
Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.
Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.
Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800 million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that government funds would go toward building the central surveillance network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and others—all of which would be linked to the network.
Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S. that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.
Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.
The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic growth takes precedence over political rights.
Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.
Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls Smart+Connected Communities—an initiative under which Cisco consults with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.
According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can be popularized in China."
Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott. "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects in China.
"We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies" of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk against the gain."
In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include networking equipment and servers along with support for some large video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.
China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment, although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K. firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion last year.
Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the world's most advanced.
Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.
Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.
The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their camera counts.
A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some 280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has 10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009 that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to this article.
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RIZs1cYu

Will Xi Jinping bring reform to China?

My article Will Xi Jinping bring reform to China? is posted on the site of Rediff.com.

A Shaky Trembling Dragon

My article A Shaky Trembling Dragon has appeared in the New Indian Express. Read on...

When Tunisia awakes, China trembles

Napoleon Bonaparte, the French Emperor is supposed to have said: “When China will awake, the world will tremble”.
Today as the Arab world awakes, China is trembling. Indeed, Beijing is nervous, very nervous. It is quite apparent when one reads the Chinese press.
Already at the end of January, an article entitled Major Social Unrest Every Five Days in 2010 appeared, quoting a report published by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University on social unrest in China. The “Annual Report on China’s Crisis Management” affirmed that every five days in 2010, there was a major incident of social unrest in the Middle Kingdom. This represented a 20% increase over 2009. While 60 major incidents of social unrest were reported in 2009, it climbed to 72 in 2010: “Social unrest had spread throughout 29 provinces and cities (over 90%), with most occurring in Henan, Beijing, and Guangdong. About 43% of the incidents could not be resolved by the local governments and required intervention from upper levels of government to restore order.”
Interestingly, 67% of the incidents were made public thanks to Internet, mainly through private blogs.
If this not was bad enough, the ‘flower revolutions’ began in Tunisia and rapidly spread to Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world, giving an ‘example’ to resentful Chinese masses.
While the leaders/dictators of the two first nations have already fallen; many more are hopefully on their way out. These unexpected upheavals did not amuse the leadership in Beijing. In China, when some protesters (one can’t call them dissidents) began to use the Internet to call for peaceful rallies in a dozen major Chinese cities, the regime had a panicky reaction.
According to the People’s Daily on February 21, Wu Banguo, a member of the all-powerful Standing Committee Politburo of the CCP stated: “Based on China's national conditions, [we] solemnly declare that we will not engage in a multi-party political system or in diversity of the guiding ideology. We will not pursue the ‘separation of powers’ and the bicameral system, or engage in federalism or privatization of property.” In other words, the Communist Party will continue to keep its monopoly over the country.
On the eve of the first rallies, a meeting of the Politburo was hurriedly called by Chinese President Hu Jintao. Amongst other things, it was decided to tighten the State control over the cyberspace and watch some ‘specific groups of people’, an ominous term targeting not only dissidents and human rights militants, but also environmentalists and all those for one reason or another do not agree with the present regime.
According to official news agencies: “Provincial heads, ministry chiefs and senior military officials were summoned to attend the meeting” and all nine members of the Standing Committee were present.
Hu is said to have told his colleagues that the session was meant “to unify the minds in the light of the new changes in domestic and foreign situations”.
Though the official agenda for the meeting was ‘to adjust [Chinas’] foreign policy’, the main objective was clearly to formulate strategies to avoid a Middle East situation. “[Hu] stressed that social management must be strengthened in order to ensure the CCP stays in power”, explained The Straits Times.
The Chinese President defined the meaning of ‘social management’: “managing the people as well as serving them.” The Chinese leaders usually speak of ‘serving the people’ only, not ‘managing’ them. This new concept was to “maximize harmonious factors and minimize non-harmonious ones,” according to Hu Jintao.
To achieve this, it was decided amongst other measures:

• to strengthen the control on Internet — the transmission of information as well as the ‘guidance’ of the public opinion
• to halt all independent reports, commentaries, and discussions (including Internet threads) on the situation in the Middle East
• to strengthen work of filtering and managing blogs, microblogs, and discussion fora
• to assure that media uniformly adhere to the standard texts of the Xinhua in reports or commentaries on the Middle East
• to strengthen the management of the migrant population, more specifically large groups of people.
• to strengthen the control over social entities (Falun Gong and other such groups are probably targeted).
• To nip social unrest in the bud.

It was immediately implemented. Beijing's response was extremely tough when an online campaign called for weekly rallies all around China. Robert Saiget in the Sydney Morning Herald reported on one of these rallies: “Hundreds of uniformed and plainclothes police smothered Beijing's designated rally site on the Wangfujing shopping street, aggressively pushing away foreign reporters with cameras and briefly detaining several.”
The Politburo also decided to emphasize that the current turmoil ‘is plotted by the United States behind the scenes.’
Soon after meeting, Zhou Yongkang, the member in charge of national and public security confirmed that a national database containing basic information on the different strata of the population would soon be set up. He also announced that an early warning system will be put in place to alert the authorities in case of social grievances to diffuse possible incidents before they happen.
A few days later, Xinhua began to follow the new guidelines. It quoted from a Russian report ‘Black Hand Can Be Seen behind the Turmoil in the Middle East’; it accused the United States to have started the Egyptian unrest: “The dramatic events happening in the Arab countries in recent weeks once again demonstrate that the United States has never observed the principle of not interfering in a sovereign country’s internal affairs”.
The report: “The US gets rid of the ‘dictators’ from the list of its past friends in order to arrange newly ‘elected’ dictators. As long as it can help solve the problems facing the United States, the US State Department is willing to see crowds and blood in the squares belonging to other territories. Secretly starting a revolution from within is an ideal tool.”
It is perhaps time for Beijing to stop blaming the West for its own problems and look into the aspirations of its people. But nothing seems able to stop the Politburo which further emphasized that ‘greater efforts to criticize and control micro-blogs should be made’ (soon after, The Global Times published an op-ed entitled Microblogs Are Not Necessarily Such Great Things).
Hu and his colleagues seem even ready to partly shut down the Internet; in the meantime, local Party bosses were requested to “reduce reporting on any sensitive incident that might occur in your locale.”
It is a pity that the present leadership is unable to see that a 'democratic' system, even if not perfect like in India (God knows that it is not perfect!) helps containing the often-genuine grievances of the masses. But do the apparatchiks in Beijing still care for the 'common men' or are they just obsessed to keep the monopoly of the Party over the nation?
The present leaders in Beijing may be less corrupt than the Qaddafis or the Mubaraks, but the repression of the ordinary people's aspirations, is the same in China, in Libya or in Tunisia. Ultimately this does not lead to stability and peace.
One thing is sure, the world rising power seems rather shaky and trembling. From this angle, the Middle Kingdom looks like a paper tiger.
In any case, it seems obvious that Beijing has forgotten to take the masses along in its dream of wild development.

China is nervous

China is nervous. 
One understands when one reads the three articles from the Chinese press posted below.
First, the number of major social incidents is fast increasing. A large numbers of such incidents can't be solved locally, and Beijing has to intervene. But are the issues really solved as long as there is no independent judiciary.
Then, Beijing refuses what Politburo Standing Committee Member Wu Banguo called "a multi-party political system or  diversity of the guiding ideology".
It is a pity that Mr Wu and his colleagues are unable to see that a 'democratic' system, even if not perfect like in India helps containing the often-genuine grievances of the masses. 
But do they still care for the 'common men' or are they just interested to keep the monopoly of the Party? 
The present leaders are perhaps less corrupted than the Qaddafis or the Mubaraks, but the repression of the ordinary people's  aspirations, is the same in China, in Libya or in Tunisia. This does not lead to stability and peace. 
In the third article, the entire blame is put on the United States for the present 'flower revolutions': "the US State Department is willing to see crowds and blood in the squares belonging to other territories."
It is just too easy. In fact, the US have accommodated quite well with dictators in the past. The example of Qadaffi and others are the most recent cases. It is perhaps time for Beijing to stop blaming the West for its own problems and look into the aspirations of its own people.

Major Social Unrest Every Five Days In 2010
Source: Shanghai Jiao Tong University, January 29, 2011
http://news.sjtu.edu.cn/info/news/content/101406.htm
In January, Shanghai Jiao Tong University released its annual report on social unrest in China. The report, titled “Annual Report on China’s Crisis Management,” stated that in 2010 there was a major incident of social unrest every five days. This represents a 20% increase over 2009. The report stated that in 2009 there were 60 major incidents of major social unrest while in 2010 there were 72. Social unrest had spread throughout 29 provinces and cities (over 90%), with most occurring in Henan, Beijing, and Guangdong. About 43% of the incidents could not be resolved by the local governments and required intervention from upper levels of government to restore order. The report found that the crises hit the media much faster in 2010 than in 2009. About 33% were reported the same day and 67% were reported by Internet media, particularly through blogs.

Beijing Will Not Tolerate Democracy or a Separation of Powers
Sources: Qiushi, February 1, 2011
http://www.qstheory.cn/zxdk/2011/201103/201101/t20110128_64951.htm
People’s Daily, February 21, 2011
http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/13963415.html
On January 24, 2011, Wu Banguo, a member of the Politburo standing committee, spoke at a national conference on the Chinese style legal system. Qiushi published his speech on February 1, 2011. The highlights of his speech also appeared in a People’s Daily editorial on February 21, 2011. “Based on China's national conditions, [we] solemnly declare that we will not engage in a multi-party political system or in diversity of the guiding ideology. We will not pursue the ‘separation of powers’ and the bicameral system, or engage in federalism or privatization of property.” 

Xinhua: America’s “Black Hand” Can Be Seen behind the Turmoil in the Middle East
Source: Xinhua, February, 23, 2011
http://news.xinhuanet.com/2011-02/23/c_121115542.htm

Xinhua quoted an article from a Russian media report with the same title as above to hint that the United States instigated the recent Egyptian riots. The article stated that the dramatic events happening in the Arab countries in recent weeks once again demonstrate that the United States has never observed the principle of not interfering in a sovereign country’s internal affairs. It (the U.S.) gets rid of the “dictators” from the list of its past friends in order to arrange newly “elected” dictators. As long as it can help solve the problems facing the United States, the U.S. State Department is willing to see crowds and blood in the squares belonging to other territories. Secretly starting a revolution “from within" is an ideal tool. The article quoted a report from the U.K.’s Telegraph claiming that the United Stated secretly supported the Egyptian dissidents who, three years earlier, had promised Washington they would organize a “power turnover” campaign.

China in 2011: Smiles or threats?

My article China in 2011: Smiles or threats? What direction will the superpower that is China take in 2011? is posted on Sify.com. Click the title to read.

Which direction for China in 2011?

Which direction will the Superpower that is China take in 2011?
An answer to this question, lies in the Chinese press, in particular in the analyses/comments published in China during the last few weeks.
The past year has been marked by a hardening of China’s foreign policy in several sectors and by a deterioration inBeijing’s relations with its proximate neighbours, whether it is Japan, Korea, India, the Mekong countries or closer allies like Kazakhstan (The Hindu reported that China's dams in Xinjiang region have triggered great concern in Kazakhstan).
In this context, The International Herald Leader, a Xinhua newspaper focused on international relations, published an interview with Yan Xuetong, a well-known scholar specialized in international relations. Yan is the Dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations of Tsinghua University.
The scholar believes that in 2011, Beijing’s foreign policy should reflect China’s status as the ‘number two power in the world’. Early in 2010, he had predicted that the Sino-US relationship would be ‘more one of enemies than friends’. He affirms now that the events of the year have corroborated his observation.
Yan contends that in economics and culture, China and the US have many common or complementary interests, but in politics and security, the two superpowers are bound to have several open conflicts of interest: “Because of opposing interests in these areas, it is hard for them to develop cooperative strategies. Competition will be the main theme [of their future relations]”.
He explained that the two powers are bound to have confrontational relations: “This [type of] relationship started at the end of the Cold War and will continue indefinitely. The G2 competition between the USSR and the US during the Cold War was about military struggle. [Now], the G2 competition between China and the US is economic”. Tomorrow, it will remain competitive in nature.
His main argument is that China’s Foreign Policy does not reflect its present international status. The events of 2010 have shown that “China’s neighbors have asked the US to intervene in Asia and have wanted the US to lead Asia to counter China’s rise.”
Yan continues, explaining that though “China’s foreign policy with regard to these countries didn’t change, their ‘feelings’ toward China changed… In the past, China’s neighbors felt comfortable with China’s ‘smiling’ foreign policy, because China was not that strong. But now China is strong. Continuing the same ‘smiling’ policies will make them question China’s intention. Before China became the leader in East Asia, its neighbors felt it was natural to compete with China, but now they view competition from China as a threat.”
That is why China needs to change its foreign policy.
In line with this new development, he suggests three adjustments in foreign policy: “First, China’s foreign diplomacy should shift its focus from economic development to achieving national rejuvenation. National rejuvenation is our government’s long-term political goal”. What exactly is this ‘rejuvenation’ is not explicit.
Yan second point is: “China should take charge as a great, responsible power instead of maintaining a low profile. …Being a responsible great power does not mean just increasing its responsibilities, but also its power. …Continuing low profile-type policies will bring more harm than benefit to China.”
Deng Xiaoping’s theory was that until China becomes a major power, it should keep a low profile in foreign policy. The time has come for China to be more proactive on the world scene and fully participate as ‘world power no 2’, states Yan.
Though the Tsinghua University Professor does not give concrete examples, Beijing has been doing just that; one can cite the recent increase of its holdings in some European Union countries' debt. Spain, Greece and other European countries in the midst of the euro-zone crisis, increasingly see China as a source of capital (Beijing’s foreign-exchange reserves are estimated at $2.7 trillion).
Gao Hucheng, the Chinese Commerce Vice-Minister who is accompanying Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang on a visit to Spain and other European countries, affirmed: "We will continue to buy debt and work together with Spain, [though] the exact amount of bonds China will buy depends on the timing and volume of issuances by the Spanish government." Clearly China is now ready to ‘take its responsibility’.
Yan’s third point is “number two in the world, China should have the power to have other countries listen to China”. Though quite frightening for its neighbours, he says that today this is more important to China than its overseas economic interests. Yan also speaks of ‘China’s international strategic reputation’ which is “based on two pillars: punishing those outside activities that harm our national interests and rewarding those that benefit our national interests”.
He concludes: “Without sufficient military power, China can’t protect the other Asian countries. Therefore, China must speed up its military development. Before China’s defense capability reaches such a level, China should emphasize preventive security cooperation with its neighbors.”
In another article in The People’s Daily on December 29, 2010, Liang Guanglie, China’s Defense Minister declared: ‘Wars Are Unlikely, but Military Friction Can't Be Excluded”.
Liang Guanglie added: “Looking at the current world situation, a full-scale war is unlikely, but we cannot exclude the possibility that, in some local areas, unexpected events may occur, or military friction may take place due to a misfire.”
The Defence Minister made another interesting remark. While the army is on the decline, the navy, air force, and second artillery corps represent a large and growing percentage of the Chinese defence forces.
Will India take note of this and adapt accordingly its doctrine?
This innocuous remark demonstrates that China will increasingly project its newly-found economic power outside its territory.
Liang Guanglie also pointed out the deep societal changes in the Chinese armed forces: today 80% of the officers have a college degree. It is far from the peasant Army of Mao coming wave after wave into the Korean peninsula in the 1950’s.
This new affirmation of power has already taken a concrete shape. Just ahead of the visit of the US defence secretary to Beijing, pictures of a fifth generation fighter plane appeared on several Internet defence fora. The pictures showed the J-20 taxiing on an airfield in southwestern China. This prototype, the first known Chinese stealth fighter, surprised US experts and sent shivers down the Pentagon, though the Chinese engineers will take some time to develop a proper engine. It however clearly demonstrates that the Chinese are on the job.

The China Defence Blog told its readers: “Contrary to the naysayers, the theory of ‘It-is-just-a-full-scale-wooden-mock-up’ is now ruled out.”
A Japanese expert told the AFP: “China plans to begin test flights of the J-20 as soon as this month, with plans to deploy the jet as early as 2017. …The fighter will be equipped with large missiles and could reach Guam [US base] with aerial refuelling, although it would take 10 to 15 more years to develop technology on par with that of the US F-22 stealth jet.”
Around the same time The PLA Daily published an article suggesting that China should focus on its national security strategic chain, composed of strategic resources, strategic industries, and strategic capabilities: “Our military capability is the backbone of our national strategic capabilities… It is critical to have our military capability reflect our national strategic status and interests." A veiled threat was added: “International cooperation is the best way to obtain a supply of stable strategic resources, but we should never give up the option of using abnormal means to safeguard the security of our strategic resources.”
Strategists can start scratching their heads: what abnormal means?
On Christmas Eve, The International Herald Leader reported a discussion at The Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Science on the future direction of China's Foreign Policy.
The report, Evaluation of China's Security Situation explained: “In 2010, China faced intensified security pressure from its neighboring countries and deteriorating relationships with its neighbors.”
Whether the ‘intensified security pressure’ is of its own making has obviously not been discussed, but the mere fact that the issue was debated on by several government think tanks proves that there is no unanimity in China: should the nation continue with its aggressive foreign policy or return to a more peaceful rise of China.
The forum of the The Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies talked about the issue and apparently two opposing views emerged:

• China should learn how to reduce it neighbours' fears and worries concerning China’s rise. In other words, make more friends and create zero or few enemies.
• China should learn from Russia. It initially took a soft foreign policy approach, but the Western world’s continued interaction with its neighbors became a threat. After Russia showed its determination to safeguard its interests [by sending troops to Georgia], the situation stabilized.

One can only hope that the first opinion will prevail amongst Chinese decision makers in 2011. If Beijing wants to pretend having a role in world politics, it is certainly in its interest.