Why drones are the future of warfare

Swarm attacks buy cheap drones in Syria

My article Why drones are the future of warfare appeared in Mail Today/DailyO

Here is the link...

There is no doubt that drones could leave the infantry jobless in a few decades from now. Does India realise this?

On January 5, something happened in Syria which will remain as a first in the history of warfare. Though it was not widely covered by the world media, it may prove to be a game changer.
The website of Global Risk Insights reported that the Russian forces stationed in Syria suffered a case of swarm attack by drones. Despite the fact that the UAVs were rather crude, it was certainly a new development.
What happened?

Russian bases
Two Russian military bases in Syria – one in Hmeymin and a logistic and supply base in Tartus – were targeted by a swarm of 13 GPS-guided drones carrying improvised explosives. While seven drones were shot down by anti-aircraft missiles, six were hacked by a cyberwarfare unit. Upon landing, three drones exploded causing extensive damage to Russian fighter planes; three others were captured intact by Russian forces.
Quoting experts, Global Risk Insights said that “despite the attack itself not necessarily being spectacular by terrorist standards, this event heralds a near future where technologies like swarm drones will be increasingly employed by violent non-state actors and terrorist organizations.”
The cost of a drone was estimated at 1000 Euros (Rs 75000).
In a recent issue consecrated to The Future of War, The Economist observed: “In the 19th century the speedy victory of the Prussian army over France in 1870 convinced European general staffs that rapid mobilisation by rail, quick-firing artillery and a focus on attack would make wars short and decisive.” In the 1930s, strategists started believing that “aerial bombardment of cities would prove devastating enough to prompt almost immediate capitulation.”
Then in 1990-91, America demonstrated during the first Gulf war what “a combination of its precision-guided munitions, new intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance methods, space-based communications and stealth technology could achieve.”
Then September 11 took place and wars ‘took a different course’.
The Economist’s report argued: “Potentially the biggest change to the way wars are fought will come from deploying lots of robots simultaneously.”
It quoted Paul Scharre, an autonomous-weapons expert at CNAS who has pioneered the concept of swarming: “collectively, swarms of robotic systems have the potential for even more dramatic, disruptive change to military operations. Swarms can bring greater mass, co-ordination, intelligence and speed.”
There is no doubt that drones could leave the infantry jobless in a few decades from now. Does India realize this?
In October 2017, The South China Morning Post mentioned “high-altitude spy drones could help China dominate ‘near space’ – a region of the Earth’s atmosphere that is at the heart of a modern-day space race.”
Near space, which starts some 20km above sea level, has always been considered a ‘death zone’ for drones: “thin air at this altitude makes it hard to generate lift, while extremely low temperatures mean electronic components like batteries are prone to fail,” explained the Hong Kong newspaper: “However, a new type of Chinese-developed drone that is undergoing testing appears to have overcome such difficulties.”
Till then, the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk was the highest flying drone, having reached an altitude of about 19km; that was before a Chinese research facility in Inner Mongolia successfully tested an experimental drone at an altitude of 25km.

Defence technology
Two months later, according to The Drive – The War Zone, researchers from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), conducted an experiment involving approximately two dozen of small fixed wing unmanned aircrafts. Citing an official PLA publication, the website said: “the test consisted of the entire group of drones acting as a swarm to complete a simulated reconnaissance mission. The individual aircraft operated together as a single entity and performed certain, unspecified portions of the flight autonomously.”
Shen Lin Cheng, the head of NUDT’s Institute of Artificial Intelligence Sciences explained: “We have precise short, medium and long term objectives, which are consistent with those set by the government on the modernization of the Chinese armed forces by 2020, 2035 and 2050.”
Already in June 2017, the state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation flew some 120 unmanned fixed wing aircrafts; the entire formation acted either as one entity or in small groups breaking away with separate objectives.

US and China
The US is not left behind; in October 2016, the Department of Defense's Strategic Capabilities Office's tested with its Perdix, a miniature air-dropped unmanned aircraft.
Two months later, the US Department of Defence issued a communiqué announcing that one of the world’s largest micro-drone swarms had been successfully demonstrated at China Lake, California.
Note the name ‘China Lake’.
The test conducted consisted of 103 Perdix drones launched from three F/A-18 Super Hornets. The micro-drones demonstrated ‘advanced swarm behaviors’ such as collective decision-making, adaptive formation flying, and self-healing.
The DoD release added: “The demonstration is one of the first examples of the Pentagon using teams of small, inexpensive, autonomous systems to perform missions once achieved only by large, expensive ones.”
In the meantime, drones belonging to SF Express, China’s biggest private courier company have been drafted by the PLA Air Force in Yunnan and Shaanxi provinces, to explore new kinds of logistics support. The South China Morning Post reported: “In the Yunnan drill, a company drone delivered urgently needed spare parts for a damaged radar in a rugged mountainous area in about an hour after the request was made, less than half the time it would have taken to truck in.”
Whether it is for the State or non-State actors, the drones are here to stay and will be extensively used in future conflicts.
The question is what is India doing?
Incidentally, China has not returned the Indian drone which accidentally fell in the Chumbi Valley.

China promotes ...the Indian tribes: a dangerous move

My article Ten thousand methods to safeguard India’s rich tribe appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer

Here is the link...

The fact that China is promoting ‘Indian culture’ is dangerous. The Union Government has been ignorant about the issue. But for how long? India could lose a crucial battle on its borders… without a shot being fired

Watching Chairman Xi Jinping officiating during the mega parade at the Zhurihe Combined Tactics Training Base in Inner Mongolia on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), this writer was struck by the Chinese martial air of the Chinese President driving in an open jeep, dressed in combat fatigue.
He later ordered the PLA to be prepared for the battle and to defeat ‘all enemies that dare offend’ his country. Was India, who had dared to challenge the mighty PLA when Beijing tried to change the status quo at the tri-junction between Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim, targeted? It’s difficult to say.
It was indeed a huge display of military power; Chinese state agencies reported that some 40 per cent of the weapons on show had never before been seen by the public. Xi, who is also the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, by far the most powerful organisation in the Middle Kingdom, inspected 12,000 combat troops.
Well, Chairman Xi has a problem; a serious problem. Can he speak of a ‘Chinese Dream’ or ‘Peaceful Rise’ while threatening to go to war against those who dare to oppose China? Would war take place, the Chinese Dream and its attendant mega projects such as the One-Belt-One-Road or the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would be over in no time; the myth of ‘Peaceful Rise’ would be busted.
Is it what China wants? True, India dared putting a spanner in China’s wild expansionism, and it is a national feature that the Chinese leadership does not like to lose face, especially at a crucial time when a new leadership is supposed to take office. So what is the solution?
It can perhaps be found in a book written soon after the Gulf War by two senior Colonels (corresponding to brigadiers in India); Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui wrote a modern war treatise entitled, Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America. Their book was widely read among the strategic community who saw in it the way China would fight tomorrow’s war. One chapter is consecrated to ‘Ten Thousand Methods Combined as One: Combinations That Transcend Boundaries’.
Forget about the new 40 types of war gadgets, while China knows that a conventional war would bring chaos in its economic development, the leadership in Beijing believes that a few ‘cuts’ here and there, could teach India a severe lesson; one of the ‘methods’ could be to influence Tibet’s Southern neighbours.
Beijing is already working on the Dragon Kingdom. Some ‘Bhutanese liberals’ are discretely told to reject India’s help. Just go to Thimphu, you will see a huge statue of Buddha dominating the entire valley. Ask who financed it? People usually remain vague: “Probably money from the North”, some Bhutanese will finally tell you; it gives the direction! And there are other ways to defenders of the ‘freedom of speech’ in Bhutan; Beijing knows this.
When one studies the history of the relations between India and China, one realises that Beijing has often tried to create an edge between India and the Himalayan region. One example, in the Prisoners of War (PoW) camps in Tibet after the 1962 conflict, the Gorkhas got a preferential treatment; they were kept in separate barracks: “you are like us, just look at your features, we belong to the same family,” hammered the Chinese propaganda. Maj Gen KK Tewari, who was one of the Commanding Officers kept as PoW in Tibet, recalled: “(the camp) was organised into four companies. The prisoners were segregated in accordance with ‘Chinese logic’.
No 1 company was all officers, junior commissioned officers (JCOs) and non-commissioned officers. Field officers (Majors and Lieutenant Colonels) were completely segregated from the JCOs and men. No. 2 and 3 companies were jawans of various units. No 4 company consisted only of Gorkhas and was given special privileges, for obvious political reasons. There are indeed many more ‘methods’.


The Three Wafares
In 2003, China’s Central Military Commission approved the concept of ‘Three Warfares’; one is “the coordinated use of strategic psychological operations.” In recent months, Beijing has been intensifying the implementation of this military doctrine. The border populations are particularly susceptible to be targeted by China.
In contradiction with an advisory notice issued by the Chinese embassy in Delhi, an article published in July in the China Travel Guide magazine promotes Ziro as a tourist destination for Chinese travelers. Why ‘promote’ Ziro, headquarters of the lower Subansiri of Arunachal Pradesh?
The answer is simple: For Beijing, Ziro is part of southern Tibet and the local population is hence Chinese. Six pages of the magazine describe in detail the ‘Chinese’ tribe, the Lhoba Apatanis.  Lhoba are usually diverse Tibetan-speaking tribes living around Pemako, a region in south-eastern Tibet, north of the McMahon Line. Wikipedia says: “The term is obscure …largely promulgated by the Chinese Government, which officially recognises Lhoba as one of the 56 ethnic groups in China.”

In its introduction, the article explains that the Apatanis are “the most beautiful ethnic people” …of China of course. It says: “In the Tibetan area of southern Tibet, there is a tribe named Apatani. The women of this tribe are known to be the most beautiful of all Tibetan tribes. But their beautiful appearance can also become a burden. In order to protect themselves from other tribal intruders’ attack, they make themselves less attractive, by plugging a big cork into the nose. …but for the Apatanis in southern Tibet, this is considered as a protection to live a longer life.”

The article describes the most important Apatani settlements “in the valleys of the southern mountainous region of Tibet, where 26,000 Apatanis live.” It means that though a part of Arunachal Pradesh, China considers Ziro as Chinese. This article seems a determined step toward the assimilation of Aruanchal.
That is not all, in recent weeks, China has produced a series of professionally produced films on the ‘tribes of southern Tibet’. It makes many in the border areas of Arunachal Pradesh envious: “Why is China promoting our culture better than our own Government?” This has been passionately debated on the social media.The fact that the Union Government has so far ignored the issue, is dangerous to say the least. While the babus in Delhi have no clue of the existence of the Tanis or other tribes of Arunachal (or elsewhere in India), in the meantime China is slowly scoring crucial points and winning battles in propaganda/information warfare. How long can India complacently ignore the danger?
Why can’t Doordarshan start documenting the rich culture of Arunachal (and the North-East in general) and invite Indian and foreign visitors to come and see for themselves the beauty of the people, their culture, their villages …and their wiser sustainable way of life.
For this, New Delhi would have to liberalise the antiquated Inner Line Permit/Protected Area Permit system.
There is, however, a grave risk that India could lose a crucial battle on its borders …without a shot being fired.

 

Unrestricted Warfare?

As General Liang Guanglie, China's Defence Minister arrives in India, the website  China-defense-mashup publishes a (poor) translation of an article of Major General Qiao Liang, the co-author of the famous book, “Unrestricted Warfare”.  
On August 29, Qiao Liang wrote an article in the China Youth Daily suggesting that China should use 'unrestricted warfare' in South China sea Islands Dispute.

During his visit, the Chinese Defence Minister will probably reiterate Beijing's "Peace Rise of China" policy. 
In this context, it is interesting to keep in mind that General Qiao's theory is also applicable to the border issue with India.
A few years ago, I wrote about this concept, here are some extracts:

A remarkable book, largely unnoticed in India except in specialized circles was published by the Literature and Arts Publishing House in Beijing a few years ago. Unrestricted Warfare has been written by Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, two very brilliant senior officers of the People's Liberation Army.
Qiao and Wang's started their fascinating research with the US's success against Saddam Hussein's army during the Gulf War of 1990-1991. Drawing lessons from this conflict, Unrestricted Warfare details how a nation like China, can face the technologically advanced US army, overcome this advantage and defeat the enemy.
This war manual came to the notice of the CIA after the September 11 attacks: the Chinese colonels several times suggest ways in which unrestricted war could be waged against America by terrorists
In their foreword, the editors of Unrestricted Warfare point out the authors’ "advocacy of a multitude of means, both military and particularly non-military, to strike at the United States during times of conflict."
Blending the ancient martial arts theory and the knowledge of the high-tech era, the authors explain how the strong can be defeated by the weak through merciless unconventional methods: “the first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are no rules, with nothing forbidden."
They say: “Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency bandwidths understood by the American military… This is because they have never taken into consideration and have even refused to consider means that are contrary to tradition and to select measures of operation other than military means."
The fact that the bombing of the WTC is mentioned resulted in US security agencies translating the book. The Chinese White Paper on Defense put it thus: “The forms of war are undergoing changes from mechanization to informationalization... Confrontation between systems has become the principal feature of confrontation on the battlefield. Asymmetrical, non-contiguous and non-linear operations have become important patterns of operations.”
One chapter speaks of "Ten Thousand Methods Combined as One: Combinations That Transcend Boundaries". It is the art of combining different elements of these various forms of warfare. What are these forms?
Terrorism is of course mentioned the most often, but it is just one of the many ways of unconventional warfare identified by Unrestricted Warfare. To cite a few others:

• financial warfare financial war is a form of non-military warfare which is just as terribly destructive as a bloody war, but in which no blood is actually shed.

• psychological warfare (spreading rumors to intimidate the enemy and break down his will);

• smuggling warfare (throwing markets into confusion and attacking economic order);

• media warfare (manipulating what people see and hear in order to lead public opinion along);

• drug warfare (obtaining sudden and huge illicit profits by spreading disaster in other countries);

• network warfare (venturing out in secret and concealing one's identity in a type of warfare that is virtually impossible to guard against);

• technological warfare (creating monopolies by setting standards independently);

• fabrication warfare (presenting a counterfeit appearance of real strength before the eyes of the enemy);

• resources warfare (grabbing riches by plundering stores of resources);

• economic aid warfare (bestowing favor in the open and contriving to control matters in secret);

• cultural warfare (leading cultural trends along in order to assimilate those with different views);

• international law warfare (seizing the earliest opportunity to set up regulations),

• environmental warfare (weakening a rival nation by despoiling natural environment).

To Use “Unrestricted Warfare” in South China sea issue
August 29, 2012
China Military News by China-defense-mashup
Qiao Liang, PLA Major General and the co-author of the world famous book “Unrestricted Warfare” recently wrote an article on August 29th’s “China Youth Daily” to suggest China to use “Unrestricted Warfare” in South China sea Islands Dispute.
In his article, he says that someone once asked him that what his great idea is to solve the problem of the South China Sea from the point of view of the “unrestricted warfare”.
His answer is to learn [about] United States, think about how United States deals with such problems, then think [about] the U.S. so-called “mistaken bombing” on Pakistan’s border posts and other countries.
The basic principle of “unrestricted warfare” is a trick-combination and asymmetric attack.
In the South China Sea issue, “unrestricted warfare” means playing a combination of boxing. To avoid a war does not mean non-use of military forces and does not mean that there is no conflict.
The key is how to control the conflict intensity. That indicates that some “special action” is necessary to clearly demonstrate China’s bottom line, but not let the whole country be pushed up to full-scale war against normal economic development.
He believes that China in recent years began to grow in economic and military strength, but the most important is that the strategic thinking and technique should actively keep up with the changes in China’s own situation, but also to keep up with changes in the international situation.
Originally, China had a long period of policy of “Shelving differences and seeking joint development”. Now this way has a dead end. Encountered such a situation, one approach is using military forces to get back Islands which belongs to me; another option is a negotiated settlement.
In general, the solution of international disputes, complete none of “Exchanging interests” is impossible.
Sovereignty belongs to China, this is nothing indisputable, but “joint development” will bring you economic benefits. This is the bottom line.
Modern military confrontation has variety of means. China can deploy military force, and may even have an accidental conflict, but this kind of “Edge ball” must get strategic advantages and let adversary “suffering loss without redress”.
This is the game master, and this is what non-war military operation means under the context of China’s sea dispute in Diaoyu Islands and South China Sea issue?
Qiao Liang thinks that China’s “keeping a low profile” strategy is not passive enduring, but to play a low-key, then must do the right things for national interests.
Qiao judges that if not really touched the the core interests of the U.S., the United States is unwilling to even dare to make “Hot War” with China for the Philippines and other ASEAN countries in the South China Sea issue.
Strategic interests between China and the United States have a greater need for interdependence. Therefore, the interests of the two countries can not be kidnapped by a small country.
The Sino-US conflict’s final result can only be a lose-lose situation to provide opportunities for other third parties.
Qiao Liang says China needs the greatest wisdom, most brilliant strategy and most tough patience in the treatment of the U.S. factor.
Hillary Clinton has repeatedly claimed that the United States wants to use smart power, China can also learn it.