New Tibet is Burning

First, we heard of a huge fire breaking out at the Serthar Tibetan Buddhist Institute (known Seda Larung Wuming in China) in the Kartse (Garzi) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Sichuan Province.
The fire was reported at 7.30 pm on January 10. 
Serthar, is said to be the largest Buddhist institute in the world with 10,000 nuns and monks (in an earlier posting on Serthar, A 'spiritual' revival in China or another gimmick? I quote some sources speaking of 40,000 monks and nuns).
Then, images of a new fire, also in Tibet (but in the neighbouring Yunnan province) appeared in the media; the fire is said to have engulfed 200 'traditional' houses in Dechen county.

Fire at Serthar

About the first one, The South China Morning Post  reported: "The blaze destroyed more than a dozen buildings, which some reports said were living quarters for student monks or nuns. No casualties have been reported as yet. Authorities are still investigating the cause of the fire, according to initial reports on microblogging platform Sina Weibo."
It is said that some 450 people joined the rescue operations. Weibo showed people in uniforms as well as monks walking through the debris with the fire raging in the background.

New Tibet?
These 2 fires have something in common. They represent 'New Tibet' (or Tibet with Chinese characteristics). 
In a posting earlier this month, I speak of the 'spiritualization' of the Chinese society (see The Year of the Horse: a Prediction).
The Serthar Institute is the main example of this 'spiritual' search, with thousands of Chinese joining Larung Gar as a monks or nuns. 
The other aspect of 'New Tibet' is what I have called the Disneyfication of the Land of Snows: 14 millions Han tourists in the Tibetan Autonomous alone!
A couple of days before the Yunnan fire broke out and engulfed the town of Dukezong, China Tibet Online invited Chinese tourists to visit the spot:

Shangri-la before the fire

Shangri-la, a place where the majority people believe in Tibetan Buddhism, is full of religious atmosphere amid the sutra streamers everywhere.Shangri-la has an area of 11,613 square kilometers populated with near 130,000 people who are mainly Tibetans.
The prevalent religion is Tibetan Buddhism believed by not only Tibetans but also people of the Naxi, Yi and Bai ethnic groups.
Shangri-la is one of the main sites on the plateau for 'Tibet tourism' where hundreds of thousands of Chinese visitors rush every year in search of some exoticism.

A touch of spirituality was even added with the very name 'Shangri-la'. Why should these two symbolic sites of 'New Tibet' burn at the same time?
Probably a coincidence!
Incidentally, a Communist cadre who served in the two 'burning' places in Eastern Tibet (in Kartse in 1995-96 and Aba in 1996-2000) has been sacked. He was close to the former security tsar Zhou Yongkang.
Li has got the boot after being suspected of corruption, according to the Chinese media. It is the latest move against people close to Zhou, himself under graft investigation.
Xinhua has announced that Li had been removed from his post as head of an advisory body to the legislature in the southwestern province of Sichuan for suspected severe violations of discipline: "Authorities are investigating his case according to procedure,” Xinhua added, citing a statement from the Communist Party’s powerful Organization Department.
Li Chongxi was the chairman of the provincial committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. He is the third senior Sichuan official to fall under suspicion in 2013.
This has no connection with the fires.
One more story about 'fire'. The great Indian Guru Padmasambhava is said to have been able to set on fire the robe of the Chinese Emperor, just by reciting powerful mantras.
Again no connection with the Serthar and Shangri-la fires, though both these mishaps have been 'miraculous', in the sense that there was no casualty.

Blaze in Tibetan town of Dukezong unlikely arson, authorities say
South China Morning Post
January, 2014
Adrian Wan
Authorities in Dukezong, the Tibetan town in Yunnan province that was largely destroyed in a fire over the weekend, said it was unlikely the blaze was started deliberately.
The possibility of arson has been mostly ruled out but an investigation was still under way, Xinhua reported.
Some people living in the town in Shangri-la county, which is about 1,300 years old, have questioned the speed of the response of emergency services.
A 30-year-old woman, who gave her surname as Wang, said that when she arrived at the scene of the blaze at 3am on Saturday, more than an hour after the fire had started, there were only two fire engines in the area. They had not begun spraying water on the flames, she said.
Other residents said firefighters arrived 30 minutes after the blaze broke out.
Chen Tianchang, a fire captain, told Xinhua that firefighters were at the scene in five minutes but that there were delays in tackling the blaze.
He said the old town did not have any firefighting equipment until several years ago and that water pipes were built above ground so as not to damage the town's historic character.
"To avoid water in the pipes freezing and breaking them, no water was stored in them. So it took time to fill them with water," he said.
Wang said: "I'm not sure why, but they only began hosing the fire about 15 minutes after I arrived, that's about 11/2 hours after the fire had broken out … Nothing is left. Luckily nobody was hurt. The old town will never be the same again."
A building she owned, which had been let out as a cafe and bar, was destroyed in the blaze.
She said her losses could well run into millions of yuan.
No injuries were reported in the blaze, but at least 2,600 people were evacuated from three neighbourhoods of the town with cobbled streets.
At least 240 buildings burned down, affecting 335 households. Cultural relics and Tibetan art works were destroyed. The cost of the damage was initially put at more than 100 million yuan (HK$128 million).
The fire broke out at 1.30am on Saturday morning and took just under 10 hours to bring under control, Xinhua reported.
Most of the houses were made of wood and the windy weather made the fire spread quickly, Zhang Zhijun, deputy chief of Deqen Tibetan autonomous prefecture, was quoted by Xinhua as saying.
"About 2,000 professionals were deployed to fight the fire, which was burning wildly and causing chaos," he said. "The fact that nobody was hurt shows the way it's handled was scientific."
Chen Limei, who works at a hotel 500 metres from the blaze, said that because tourists would probably avoid the area, some hostels were allowing homeless residents to stay for free.
"It's really cold out there so people need help," she said.

The Year of the Horse: a Prediction

2014: Year of the Horse

2014 will be the Year of the Horse (Horse-Wood for the Tibetans). It should be an Energetic Year.
Some have tried to predict the main features of the Year 2014.
The Weekly Newsletter Sincism, made 10 predictions which may turn correct (mostly in the economic and diplomatic fields).
The interesting point made by the  author (Bill Bishop) is that 2014 will witness an increase "recognition that Beijing has a well-crafted strategy, not ad-hoc and uncoordinated actions".
This might not be the case of India where ad hocism has been (and is) the rule.
In China, there is another aspect which is worth watching: the 'spiritualization of the Chinese society.
In October, I mentioned on this blog  'A Spiritual revival in China' with some extraordinary photos of Larung Gar in Kardzi Tibetan Prefecture of Sichuan Province (formerly Kham).
China Tibet Online publishes today an article entitled 'Beijing Lama Temple welcomes mass pilgrims in New Year'.
The Communist mouthpiece reported: "The first day of 2014 saw mass pilgrims to worship Buddha in the Lama Temple in Beijing."
It describes the scene at the Buddhist temple:

By 10:30, the temple had already taken in over 11,000 pilgrims. Even though the notion of vying for the most auspicious first incense had faded away, there were still a large number of people paying homage to the temple on the New Year's Day, which was also the first day of the last month of 2013 in lunar calendar.
By 7:30, the line people queuing in had reached the bus stop on the outside street, which was some 150 meters long. In order to keep warm in the cold winter morning, some kept stamping their feet while others rubbing their hands, and all wore down jackets.
Even though the Lama Temple in Beijing has started offering free incense to visitors since Dec. 10 2013 and forbids people bringing various incenses from the outside as a way of environment protection, there are still vendors peddling incenses around the temple.

The Yonghe Temple or ‘Lama Temple’ is a Tibetan monastery (Geluk tradition) located in the northeastern part of Beijing. Building and frescoes is a blend of Han Chinese and Tibetan styles.

Wikipedia says: 

Building work on the Yonghe Temple started in 1694 during the Qing Dynasty. It originally served as an official residence for court eunuchs. It was then converted into the court of the Prince Yong (Yin Zhen), a son of the Kangxi Emperor and himself the future Yongzheng Emperor. After Yongzheng's ascension to the throne in 1722, half of the building was converted into a lamasery, a monastery for monks of Tibetan Buddhism. The other half remained an imperial palace.

After Yongzheng's death in 1735, his coffin was placed in the temple. The Qianlong Emperor, Yongzheng's successor, gave the temple imperial status signified by having its turquoise tiles replaced with yellow tiles which were reserved for the emperor. Subsequently, the monastery became a residence for large numbers of Tibetan Buddhist monks from Mongolia and Tibet, and so the Yonghe Lamasery became the national centre of Lama administration. The temple is said to have survived the Cultural Revolution due to the intervention of Prime Minister Zhou Enlai. It was reopened to the public in 1981.

My prediction for 2014 is that the spiritual search of the Chinese people will continue to intensify during the Year of the Horse.

President Xi Jinping should take it into account in his 'Chinese Dream' and his "Massline Campaign', if he seriously want them to be successful.

The question however remains: does Party Ideology can rhyme with Spiritual Aspiration?
Can a 'spiritualization of China influence Beijing's Tibet Policy?
I will not do any prediction on this one.

Here are some pictures of 'Lama Temple' on January 1.

Predictions For 2014
The Sinocism China Newsletter 
January 5, 2014

1. 2014 is the Year of the Horse but it will also likely become known as the Year of the Grind as Beijing works through its many political, economic, environmental and social challenges;

2. Xi Jinping will continue to consolidate power. The apparent ongoing purge of Zhou Yongkang and his allies will result in Xi having more control over both the security services and the military than any leader in decades;

3. Xi's appointment to head the leading group for comprehensively deepening reform is positive for reform prospects. Some had expected Premier Li Keqiang to lead the group and now see this move as a diminution of Li, but given that the scope of the group is much broader than just the economy it makes more sense for the General Secretary to lead it. Only Xi may have the authority and the bureaucratic power to push through reforms that affect so many entrenched interests (though of course reform will also bring new opportunities to some). If Xi is successful in rebuilding Party discipline through the Mass Line Campaign and the corruption crackdown then there is a decent chance the reforms will succeed. But there is a reason some in Beijing say that Xi is the Party's last chance to make the changes needed to keep it in power;

4. The corruption crackdown will intensify and while it will not solve the root issues it will be more successful than most have predicted. Zhou Yongkang may be the first tiger to fall in 2014 but there will be others. There will be increasing pockets of resistance as cadres are squeezed but Xi appears to have the power base to continue the crackdown. And business prospects will not improve for luxury goods merchants;

5. The economy will continue to struggle, in large part to due to the excessive buildup of corporate and government debt. The recent audit and the listing of "resolving risk associated with local government debt" as a key task in 2014 by the Central Economic Work Conference are signs of both how worried Beijing is and how serious it is taking the debt mess. There are no quick fixes though, moral hazard is a huge issue and while a debt crisis is unlikely (but never say never) Beijing's options are increasingly constrained and any overly aggressive efforts to rein in credit growth could dramatically slow the economy. GDP growth should come in around 7% (and there will be plenty of debate about how "healthy" or real" that growth is), the Shanghai Composite will end 2014 15% higher, the RMB will appreciate to between 5.8-5.9 to the US Dollar and first-tier and maybe second-tier city real estate markets will continue to see price appreciation, though at least one high profile real estate developer will be taken down as a scapegoat for the high housing prices;

6. The Party has made much progress towards its goal of seizing the commanding heights of the Internet and those efforts will continue, as will a continued shift in social media usage from Weibo to Wechat. The stepped up control of the Internet will continue part of the broader, ongoing ideological tightening;

7. Alibaba and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will both make concessions by the second quarter that will allow the company to list on the HKSE. The IPO will be bigger than Facebook's even though Tencent's Wechat will increasingly be seen as serious threat and Laiwang, Alibaba's Wechat clone, will have little traction;

8. There will be more China pain for US technology companies in the wake of the Snowden revelations. Do not be surprised if Beijing bans military and security personnel and cadres above a certain rank from using Apple products;

9. There will be progress on cleaning up the environment though the problems are so huge that not much will change substantively in a year. But there will be more bureaucratic will and policy support as Beijing has come to realize that the environmental disaster is one of the core threats to the country. One of my predictions for 2013 was that the environmental issues would lead to "more protests as citizens become more aware of their rights and are emboldened to protect them." In fact there were fewer large scale ones than in 2012 as Beijing narrowed the public sphere.

10. Verbatim from last year's predictions: China’s external environment is increasingly complex. Mr. Xi is likely to work hard on maintaining stable relations with the United States, while at the same time expanding China’s military capabilities and asserting its regional interests. China has unsettled its neighbors with its approach to the disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and the various islands in the South China Sea. Both issues look intractable, so a solution is unlikely in 2013. Expect a quickening arms race in Asia, increasingly nationalist rhetoric, continued tensions with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines and growing risks of misunderstandings — and possible mishaps — as the various countries send more vessels into the disputed areas.

What I will add for 2014 is that there will be increasing recognition that Beijing has a well-crafted strategy, not ad-hoc and uncoordinated actions, that it believes will demonize and isolate Japan in the region and force the US to choose between supporting an increasingly unpopular regional partner or applying pressure on Japan such that other countries will see the US as an unreliable ally. I am not convinced it will work but it does look to be a significant part of Beijing's strategy. And Prime Minister Abe is starting to look like a gift for Beijing.

Of course any unforeseen, exogenous events could render some or all of these non-operative...