Coup with Chinese Characteristics

There are coups and coups.
In India, the movement towards Delhi of some units of 1 Corps, based in Mathura, has been the objects of many TV debates and analyst's speculations.
China also had its own rumor of a coup (not involving the army like in India, but the paramilitary forces). 
In China, the rumor of a coup may have been related to the power struggle at the top of the Party, more particularly to Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang, the powerful Chinese politician.
A Taiwanese publication explained:

According to an unnamed Beijing source, Zhou Yongkang, a member of the elite nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, secretly promised to help Bo join him in the country's most powerful decision-making body and take over his role as secretary of the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee. This would have allowed Bo to control the People's Armed Police and Ministry of Public Security, and force Xi to step down before inserting himself in the vice president's place as expected future general secretary, the source said.

Mingjing also reported that Bo, through Wang and in the name of Chongqing's Public Security Bureau, purchased 5,000 rifles and 50,000 rounds of ammunition from a local munitions factory last year in order to create a private army. The People's Armed Police has already been sent to Chongqing to investigate the whereabouts of the weapons, the report said.

Another Mingjing News 'revelation' suggests that since Chinese New Year, Bo had been using his influence over domestic and international media to heighten attention on the forthcoming 18th CPC National People's Congress, where [Vice-President] Xi [Jinping] is expected to succeed Hu Jintao, current president and general secretary. Mingjing alleges that this was part of Bo's inside-outside assault to destabilize Hu, Xi and Premier Wen Jiabao while inserting himself into the leadership conversation.

Different countries, different reactions. 
While India keeps discussing the issue, China acts. 
The People's Daily commented: "If we allow the rumors to run amok, it will seriously disrupt the social order and stability and endanger social integrity." Xinhua's titled "Resolutely Say 'No' to Rumors and Their Followers", affirming "those who fabricate or spread rumors are not law-abiding. Making 'jokes' about important matters of social security and stability demonstrates a lack of responsibility toward society and toward themselves. It is very harmful."
It is harmful for the Party!
As a result, popular Chinese microblogging sites Sina Weibo, QQ Weibo and the bulletin board of the search engine Baidu, were blocked. They had dared mentioning the rumors.
The Guardian wrote: "China has intensified online censorship by closing 16 websites, taking the toughest steps yet against major microblogs and detaining six people for spreading rumours of a coup amid Beijing's most serious political crisis for years."
Now, Sina and Tencent, the organisations which operate China's most popular versions of Twitter with hundreds of millions of microbloggers, had pledged to strengthen their managements after being "criticised and punished". 
No comment anymore in China, while in India we will keep discussing, without of course, going to the root of the problem! 
In both cases, the root cause is Corruption.


Senior UPA minister behind coup report?
Zeenews Bureau
April 05, 2012,
New Delhi: Even though the government has rubbished the news report on "unusual" movement of two elite Army units towards Delhi in mid-January, the issue seems to be far from over as another newspaper, Thursday, claimed that a senior minister in the UPA government was behind the suspected coup attempt story.

As per The Sunday Guardian, a senior minister was the ‘mastermind’ behind the story aimed at aggravating the ‘friction’ between the political establishment and Army Chief VK Singh.
Quoting sources, the newspaper claimed that the minister is connected - through his close relative - with the defense procurement lobbies, who have been at loggerheads with the Army Chief.
The minister expected the political class to unite against the Army Chief at the very mention of a Pakistan-like situation in India, the report said.
However, the minister miscalculated the response of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who called the troop movement story as “alarmist” and that of Defence Minister AK Antony, who slammed attempts to question the patriotism of the armed forces.
The minister had assumed that Prime Minister and the Defence Minister would decline to comment on the report, thereby increasing the pressure on Army Chief to quit.
The Sunday Guardian claims that a close relative of the minister in question has been regularly meeting with arms merchants and their lobbyists during his many visits abroad.
Dubai, London and Bangkok are the three locations where the arms lobbyists usually ‘entertain’ VVIPs from India, the report added.
However, the entire episode has posed serious questions about the extent of the reach of arms lobbyists in the establishment. A senior minister playing into the hands of arms lobbyists is a development which would reverberate in the political circles and cause further unease to the Manmohan Singh-led government.
Meanwhile, Intelligence Bureau sources told Zee News that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been informed that a group of lobbyists were trying to plant "alarmist stories in a bid to discredit the Army Chief".
The IB has told the PM that the row between the Army Chief and MoD has divided the Army in to two camps and brigadiers are almost functioning as "moles" leaking information to the media and the arms lobbies.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

This posting on a Foreign Policy's blog gives an idea of the atmosphere in China today.
These wild founded or unfounded rumors are the logical consequence of an extremely opaque system.
How long will it last?
The regime in Beijing wants to control everything and does not control anything.
The government publication, Huanqiu recently published an article complaining about  rumors spreading in the Middle Kingdom; however, it did not analyze the root of the problem which is opacity. 
The article entitled "Hold the Line of Defense and Resist Rumors" says:

Recently, certain rumors have been spreading on and off of the Internet, with high visibility. Some of them even involve Changan Street (the location of the Chinese State Council) and Zhongnanhai (the headquarters of the Communist Party). These rumors are very bizarre and ridiculous, thus interfering with public opinion. Chinese society should be on the alert about this and should not let the rumor mill run without restrictions.” The commentary alleged that the rumors are quietly eroding society. “[To legitimize rumors] is in fact to build a publicly-accepted world outside of the current political framework and to constantly erode the authority of the current system. Once rumors are legitimized, they will become a cheap tool to disintegrate the country ideologically and politically.

If the Communist Party is interested to stop the ideological and political disintegration of the country, the only solution is to open itself (something Deng Xiaoping did in 1978 for the economy). 
Is the Party able to do so? 
The Burmese regime is the example of a most opaque system opening itself to the world in a peaceful and dignified manner.
Unless, this is done, rumors will continue and the Party will keep loosing whatever is left of its legitimacy in the eyes of the masses.

The Great Rumor Mill of China
Foreign Policy
ISAAC STONE FISH
MARCH 22, 2012
Something strange is going on in Beijing. Here are the five most virulent conspiracy theories making the rounds -- and a stab at the likelihood of them panning out.
The public hasn't seen or heard from high-ranking Communist Party leader Bo Xilai since he was sacked last week in Beijing, and the Chinese Internet has been awash with debate over what's actually going on behind palace walls. "People are nervous, there's not much information available," Bo Zhiyue, an expert on Chinese elite politics at the National University of Singapore, told AFP. "They are hungry for new information, and if there's nothing new, they will make up new information."
Speculation is rife that a coup might have happened, with the only general consensus being that something big is going on in Beijing. What follows is a curated guide to the "information" -- read: wild rumors and speculation -- floating around online in Chinese about Bo Xilai's surprising fall from grace and what his sacking means for the future of the Chinese Communist Party.

1. Bo Xilai was sacrificed in the name of party unity.
The rumor: Although Bo had widespread support in the high leadership, current President Hu Jintao and former President Jiang Zemin (who's not dead, though this was rumored, too) agreed to kick him out to facilitate a smooth power transition for Xi Jinping this fall. The 85-year old Jiang, an ally of Bo's now deceased father, turned on Bo Xilai for the good of the Communist Party.
Really?: For a party bent on showing a united front to outsiders, Bo Xilai, with his loud populism and his overt (at least for China) thirst for power, apparently proved too dangerous. Analysts sometime classify Hu Jintao as belonging to a different faction of the party than Jiang Zemin, but the two leaders have worked together to houseclean in the past; apparently cutting a deal to depose a powerful Shanghai party chief in 2006.
The source: Various Taiwanese and Hong Kong media websites that tend to mix assertion with fact when reporting on elite Chinese politics.
Likelihood: Possible but unprovable at the moment, at least until someone releases better sourcing or better documentation.

2. Mao Zedong's grandson will come to power.
The rumor: General Mao Xinyu will be promoted to Bo's position, or another high ranking post, to fight corruption in the name of his glorious grandfather and make the country strong once more.
Really?: General Mao, possibly the world's most obese major general, is a tragicomic figure in Chinese politics. Imagine if Jimmy Carter's embarrassing brother mixed with a slovenly version of Kato Kaelin were the venerated grandson of your nation's founder. Because of his illustrious lineage, though, he still appears at major meetings to present information, with the added benefit of entertaining reporters.
Jamil Anderlini, who interviewed him last year for the Financial Times, writes:
Unlike other "princelings," as the children of revolutionary heroes are known, General Mao has never been accused of using his pedigree to advance his business interests. On the contrary, he is considered incapable of doing much of anything besides memorizing a few tracts of his grandfather's famous quotes, something that every Chinese child in the 1960s and 1970s could do.
General Mao's penmanship is so childish it has even spun a parody account on Weibo, "Mao Xinyu the Calligrapher."
Source: Scattered comments on Chinese microblogs.
Likelihood: Slightly better than the Mayan Apocalypse.

3. Another high-ranking leader has been purged.
The rumor: Zhou Yongkang, ostensibly a Bo Xilai supporter, has been detained by order of President Hu Jintao in the biggest leadership shake-up, and possibly the most destabilizing, since the Mao's death in 1976.
Really?: Nine men currently sit on the Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision making body in China. Zhou, officially ranked last, oversees state security and the police, but some analysts see him as one of the Standing Committee's most powerful men. A former oilman who grimaces even when he smiles, imagine Zhou as a Dick Cheney with a slightly lower rank. Xinhua has reported that the Political and Legislative Affairs Committee, which Zhou chairs, will host a training of more than 3,300 provincial, city, and county-level officials in April, but it's unclear what this says about Zhou's grip on power.
The source: A Chinese edition of the Epoch Times (the paper affiliated with the banned-in-China Falun Gong sect) compares Zhou's detention -- which no one else can corroborate -- to the arrests of the Gang of Four in 1976. The paper, however, sources this to "indications." The English edition is a bit more circumspect; in an article entitled "China's Security Chief Zhou Yongkang Pulled from Power?" they qualify their statement with the helpful phrase: "News of Zhou's arrest remains unconfirmed."
Likelihood: Not outside the realm of possibility, but the chance of this happening appears minuscule. It's more likely wishful thinking. The Epoch Times has written good stories and broken news, but on trustworthiness appears to fall somewhere between the Washington Times and Scientologynews.org. The Epoch Times also has an axe to grind here: given Zhou's role in the Falun Gong crackdown, it's a safe bet that many in that newspaper, and its shadowy backers, would be happy to see him go.

4. The son of Bo Xilai was killed in a Ferrari crash.
The rumor: Bo's son Guagua was driving the Ferrari that crashed on Sunday night in Beijing, killing him and injuring his two unnamed female companions.
Really? Bo Guagua, Bo's dapper, Oxford-educated son, has long been a favorite target of the Internet set. Bo is currently a student at Harvard's Kennedy School, and the snarkier corners of the Chinese web treat him like the worthy subject of Gawker-like attention.
Source: Comments in articles about the mysterious and censored Ferrari crash.
Likelihood: Almost impossible. The Wall Street Journal reported that Bo the younger drove a Ferrari to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for a dinner last year, but that -- and his father's troubles -- appear to be the only thing linking him to the accident. The Weibo account assumed to belong to Bo has been active since, and, at the risk of stating the obvious, just because he hasn't been seen since his father's sacking doesn't mean he died in a Ferrari crash.

5. Armed chaos in Beijing.
Rumor: Yesterday saw gun-battles in Beijing, the airport has been sealed, and martial law had been imposed on the Avenue of Eternal Peace (the street perpendicular to Tiananmen Square and that runs alongside many important government buildings).
Really? There appears to be something strange afoot in Beijing, but fears of a return to June 4, 1989 -- when tanks rolled into Tiananmen Square and the capital fell under martial law, a response both to a student protest movement and disagreements among members of the Politburo Standing Committee -- seem outlandish.
Source: Chinese articles published on overseas websites, trying to explain and debunk the current rumors floating around the Internet. Mostly they're just adding to them. As Foreign Policy's Christina Larson pointed out, this is when a Chinese Peter Jennings would be useful.
Likelihood: It's possible there was sporadic gunfire in Beijing -- though it's a city where guns are heavily restricted. But sealing the world's second-busiest airport and imposing martial law on a major thoroughfare in a city filled with millions of bloggers, hundreds of foreign journalists, and thousands of international observers without any credible source reporting this seems, well, impossible.

***

So what are we to make of all this? For the time being, it's too early to say. Silence from official channels, and lack of information, has fueled a lot of speculation. Yesterday, in the state-run Global Times, an unsigned essay -- perhaps the longest and most direct mention of what is happening in China in mainstream media -- didn't even mention Bo Xilai by name, instead referring to "The Chongqing Incident." Unsurprisingly, it urged people to place their trust in the highest levels of the Communist Party.
"Because we now have become more diversified, we have other choices, we have realized that trusting in the Party Central Committee, implementing the path of the Party, is more dependable than any methods other people teach us," it reads. It's an odd time to talk about other paths, other teachers. The essay, which has been widely re-posted online, appears to have been taken down from the Global Times website, which could mean that someone chose to comment on a subject before the Communist Party decided the party line.
And when the party line doesn't even know what it wants to communicate, it's fuel to the flames of conspiracy.