The Three Risks and China's Reforms

Xi Jinping visits China's border in Mongolia

Two telling articles recently appeared in the Chinese 'official' press.
The first one was published in Qiushi, a theoretical publication of the Chinese Communist Party (and the Party School). It speaks of three major risks affecting China’s political stability.
The 'Three Risks' are worth meditating upon:
The first is: "the decentralization of power. The article argues that democratic political reform carries the risk of polarizing the power of the central government. The article cited Vietnam as an example."
Practically, it means that there is no question of 'regional aspirations' or even a sort of federal system, like in India for example. It is far too dangerous for the Party which could explode (or implode).
The second 'risk' is an economic one: "Fluctuations in the economy. Sustainable economic development and maintaining social mobility are fundamental guarantees of social stability in countries going through industrialization and modernization. Over the next 10 to 20 years, maintaining sustainable economic development and social mobility will be vital for China's social stability."
The main objective of the recently-created Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms (with Xi Jinping at the helm) is to introduce just enough 'economic' reforms to be able to maintain 'social stability' and save the Party from a Soviet-type end. Of course, there is no question of kejrivalisation in the Middle Kingdom, just minimum of reforms to avoid the Chaos.
The third risk is 'losing control of the media'.
The Qiushi elaborates: "Guiding social ideology, controlling public opinion, and managing social emotions are an important part of national governance and important ideological conditions for maintaining social stability. From the experience of other countries and the new situations has China encountered in recent years, the challenges and risks from the impact of social media and from the management of society's emotional impact are increasing."
This explains the severe sentence inflicted on Xu Zhiyong, the pro-democracy activist. In November 2012, Xu had told The South China Morning Post: "For the world to become a better place, someone has to pay a price, I think it's glorious to sacrifice for the sake of social progress and fighting injustice."
He did, he is now in jail for 4 years. Xu, 40, was a law lecturer at Beijing University of Post and Telecommunications when he founded the New Citizen movement in May 2012. His objective was to enhance social equality and to push for a fair legal system.
According to the website Chinascope which translated the article, the author of the Qiushi article added that "it is foreseeable that social ideological guidance, the regulation of public opinion, and social emotional management will occupy a more important place in Chinese society in future governance and will play a greater role in maintaining social stability in the future."

A Tibetan Khempo was recently arrested in Tibet

It is quite scary.
The second article, also translated by Chinascope is about the new Leadership Groups which will have more authority to crack down on 'special interest groups'.
It first appeared in Consensus Network on January 26 and was later reprinted in the Qiushi Theory.
The article analyzed the new power relations between the CCP and the Government after the establishment of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the National Security Committee.
It explains: "As the Chinese Communist Party oversees the Chinese government, it is hard to distinguish whether the power is in the Party’s hands or in the government’s hands, but the two new leadership groups have a higher authority to crack down on special interest groups that were formed in the past."
The fact remains that it is Xi Jinping, the Secretary General of the Party (and Chairman of the Central Military Commission) who is the boss of both Leading Small (in size) Groups.
The article further states: "The new National Security Committee is responsible directly to the Politburo. It is chaired by the General Secretary and Vice Chairmen, representing the Party, the government and the National Congress. Its power is much greater than the US National Security Council. Therefore, the new power structure in China is a strengthened combination of the Party and the Government."
Once again, what is worrying is that the two new Small Groups will yield more authority and will have the more means "to crack down on special interest groups".
More repression against the Tibetans, the Ugyurs, the 'democrats' and others is in sight.
The Horse Year starts on an ominous note.
But can repression, always more repression help China to grow?
Certainly not, though it is what the apparatchiks believe that it will. 

China pushes Yu Zhengsheng out of security plan

My article China pushes Yu Zhengsheng out of security plan appeared on Monday in NitiCentral.

Click here to read...

Where is Yu? The new National Security Committee

Nos 1, 2 and 3 only in the NSC

Nothing is logical in the Middle Kingdom.
Yu Zhengsheng, No 4 in the Standing Committee of the CCP's Politburo is normally considered as the leader in charge of the country's (restive) minorities, as well as Taiwan.
One could have thought that he would have been a pillar of the new National Security Commission (NSC) which will oversee, coordinate and monitor the country's foreign policy as well as the domestic and defence issues related to security.
Today in China, one of the major 'security' concerns is the restiveness of 'minorities' areas such Tibet and Xinjiang. Let us not forget that Mr. Yu is Chairman of both Central Working Coordination Small Groups on Tibet and Xinjiang; he is also responsible for the relations with Taiwan.
Incidentally, Yu Zhengsheng yesterday chaired the annual Taiwan Work Conference in Beijing where he called for concerted efforts from all levels of government to develop cross-strait relations and discourage the island from declaring its independence.
Yu even pleaded for renewed 'civilian-level' political dialogue in order to reach Beijing's objective, i.e. the cross-strait reunification.
Though responsible for these important security issues, Yu will not seat on the National Security Commission with his colleagues of the Standing Committee. President Xi Jinping will be the chairperson, while Premier Li Keqiang and the Chairman of the National People's Congress, Zhang Dejiang will be deputy chiefs.
A Politburo statement said that the commission will be responsible to "make overall plans and co-ordinate major issues and major work concerning national security". The NSC should directly report to the Politburo and its Standing Committee.
President Xi, who will also chair the new Leading Small Group on Reforms had earlier declared: "Ensuring [the party's] political safety and political power will be the primary tasks facing the National Security Commission," adding that the NSC would help deal with threats at home and overseas.
The South China Morning Post commented: "Observers wondered where it would sit in the state power structure and how it would align policies across the various intelligence, military and foreign affairs departments".
Why Mr. Yu is not part of it is a mystery (to me at least).
Xinhua had reported that Yu pressed for a political reunification with Taiwan: "All departments all over the country must steadfastly and wholeheartedly push for stable development of cross-strait relations, continue to promote cross-strait political mutual trust and interaction, while resolutely opposing any separatist attempt of Taiwan independence."
In the meantime, the regional CPPCC and People's Congress met in Tibet and decided to "strive to do a good job on people's livelihood... the starting point and foothold of all work".
Accordingly the Tibet Autonomous Region's Government decided to implement a series of policies on people's livelihood "so that people of all nationalities can feel the warmth of the party and the government".
Here are the new measures:

1. To improve the basic cost of living allowances of low income people in urban and rural areas. For rural residents, the basic living allowance is improved from 440 yuan RMB (US $ 74) to 490 yuan RMB (US $ 80). For rural residents, it increases from 1750 yuan RMB to 1950 yuan RMB.
2. To improve fiscal subsidy standard of medical system in agricultural and pastoral areas. The subsidy increases from 340 yuan RMB to 380 yuan RMB per person per year.
3. To improve the fiscal subsidy standard of new rural social pension insurance. The subsidy increases from 105 yuan RMB to 120 yuan RMB per person per month.
4. To improve the fiscal subsidy standard of basic medical insurance for urban residents. The subsidy increases from 300 yuan RMB to 340 yuan RMB per person per year.
5. To improve the treatment of village doctors. It increases from 300 yuan RMB to 600 yuan RMB per person per month.
6. To improve the basic compensation standard of epidemic prevention coordinators at village level.
7. To improve the preschool subsidies, 'three guarantees' (namely eating, living, and studying fees) for herdsmen's and farmers' children who are receiving education from compulsory education to high school period, and student subsidies standard for poor children in urban areas. 200 yuan RMB are added on the basis of the original level.
8. To improve the basic payment and performance evaluation standard of village cadres.
9. To improve the living allowances standard of Senior party members, veteran cadres and old model workers. It increases 50 yuan RMB per person per month.
10. To improve the support subsidy standard of rural residents enjoying 'five guarantees'. It increases from 2600 yuan RMB to 2900 yuan RMB per person per year.
11. To distribute the living subsidy to staff in village and township authorities and public institutions in Tibet Autonomous Region.

Will these few dollars more drastically change the situation on the Tibetan plateau? Will 'common folks' start feeling the warmth of the Party?
It is doubtful; the tensions, the resentment is bound to continue.
It is all the more surprising that Mr. Yu has been side-lined and not made part of the National Security Committee.
Tibet and Xinjiang are indeed serious 'security' issues for Beijing.
 

The Third Plenum and the People's Liberation Army

After holding a 4 day-conclave from November 9 to 12, the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee has delivered 2 new Leading Groups: one on reforms (it was expected) and more surprisingly, a National Security Committee (NSC).
The new leadership in Beijing issued a statement at the end of the meet to explain: “The general objective of the approved reforms is to improve and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics …development is still the key to solving all problems in China.”
Economic reforms are fine, but Xi Jinping and his colleagues have understood that there is a more serious danger looming in the Middle Kingdom’s sky: the Emperors have to act fast to avoid the doom of the former Soviet Union (where the internal security apparatus had become weak, corrupt and ineffective). If effective reforms are not introduced at once, the days of the Communist Party are counted.
The Third Plenum admitted that the present reforms would decide the destiny of modern China. The statement concluded with “the need to deepen reforms in order to build a moderately prosperous society, and a strong and democratic country, as well as realize the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.”
It might remain a dream, though Sinocism, an excellent newsletter, which analyses the current events in China, commented: “The decision is impressive and shows that the leadership is both aware of and committed to deep reforms. …the truly hard part is not the drafting but the implementation of changes that will affect interests throughout society. But at least Xi has clearly articulated [his] resolve and vision for reform.”
Amongst the sectors to be reformed, the 204-member Central Committee discussed building a more impartial and sustainable social security system; encompassing an improved housing guarantee; strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights; encouraging innovation, etc. It further decided to allow more non-state-owned capital into the market to develop a ‘mixed-ownership economy’; to accelerate the reform of the ‘hukou’ system (household registration) in order to help farmers become urban residents and to promote market-oriented reform in state-owned enterprises by breaking monopolies and introducing competition.
Though the decision to move forward can be considered a positive step, the implementation of the reforms won’t be easy.
A host of other measures have been taken ‘to ensure that the authority of the constitution and laws is upheld’. Only the future (the 9 coming years) will tell us if the Communist system is reformable, or if it is condemned to follow the Soviet Union’s model.
But there is a more important factor which needs to be monitored by Beijing; it is called ‘stability’ in Communist jargon. According to Xi Jinping, the new economic policies can only be implemented if China is stable: "State security and social stability are preconditions for reform and development", said the President, adding that only when the nation is safe and society is stable, could reform and development constantly advance.
This seems the justification for the creation of the NSC which will deal with internal as well external issues: “China is facing two pressures: internationally, the country needs to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests; domestically, political security and social stability should be ensured”, explained Xi, adding: “The variety of predictable and unpredictable risks has been increasing remarkably, and the system has not yet met the needs of safeguarding state security.”
Reuters said that it “will enable the government to speak with a single voice when it comes to dealing with crises at home and abroad.”
‘Internal’ security has traditionally meant muzzling the opposition to the regime. It will continue. It was reported that a sophisticated new system allowing tracking of messages in the languages of all mainland's ethnic groups has recently been introduced in China. The report added: “The system is aimed at local authorities in areas such as Xinjiang and Tibet, where security officials do not know the local language.”
Tibet and Xinjiang are two of the ‘internal’ threats which will be dealt with by the new body. Recently, the repression has increased in both restive regions. The self-immolations in Tibet have been the most visible consequence of the stiffening of the security apparatus.
While actively popularizing the Internet, the Plenum decided to ‘reinforce its overall administration over cyberspace in accordance with the law and accelerate formation of a sound Internet management system”. Isn’t it ominous?

Though analysts believe that the NSC is based on the National Security Council of the United States, it will have snooping facilities like the infamous National Security Agency of the US. Reuters says that the NSC “would increase coordination among the various wings of China's security bureaucracy, split now among the police, military, intelligence and diplomatic services”.
Importantly for India and other China’s neighbours, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will also be ‘reformed’.
In the wake of the Plenum, military schools will have to review their curriculums ‘to boost real combat abilities’, as a PLA publication put it.
According to an official statement, “the reform will also unify teaching materials, innovate in teaching methods for combat command and hone a performance-based reward and penalty mechanism for students.”
The military academies and universities should thereafter “foster talent in accordance with the goals of strengthening the army and boosting students' ideological and political quality, adopting a combat-oriented educational system”, adding “concrete efforts should be made to cultivate high-quality military talents that are capable of participating in and winning a war."
The new NSC will overview and monitor these ‘reform’ programs.
It is also said that the PLA should “better co-ordinate the work of its different military and geographical branches”.
Does it mean that the Central Military Commission will change the army's command structure to enhance its capacity to ‘win modern wars’?
The South China Morning Post quoted military officials and experts saying that the PLA was keen on innovation, but was unlikely to build a chain of united commands like the US Pacific Command, which co-ordinates regional military, terrorism and crime-fighting.

Xu Guangyu, a former PLA major general who is now a senior researcher at the Beijing-based China Arms Control and Disarmament Association told the Hong Kong newspaper: “The PLA will definitely make reforms, but its steps cannot be too big. …All foreign countries' military systems could be a reference, but it doesn't mean the PLA will copy any one of them. Past experience shows us that the current system still works. It just needs some improvement.”
The leadership can’t go too fast with the vested interests in the PLA.
Kevin McCauley wrote for the Jamestown Foundation: “Many of the reform areas announced by the Third Plenary Session have been a focus of discussion in PLA publications. ...The development of an integrated command information system and creation of a joint command structure are required to support these theoretical developments.”
The Plenum also decided to optimize the PLA’s size and structure and also adjust and improve the proportion between various troops, and reduce non-combat institutions and personnel.
The Central Committee further called for “innovation in military theory, strengthening military leadership, improving military strategy in the new era, and building a modern military power system with Chinese characteristics.” All this means a centralization of the power of the Central Military Commission (CMC) whose role will be ‘optimized’.

Interestingly, ‘quality privately-owned enterprises will be allowed to join defence industry’. Can India study these reforms and learn from them?
Another question is, will China defend more aggressive postures?
Recently, the Chinese military's National Defense University, the General Political Security and General Staff Departments, the Chinese Academy of Social Science and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations jointly released a documentary titled ‘Silent Contest’; though widely circulated from June to October, it was later blocked by the authorities.
The movie, which is pure anti-American propaganda, asserts that the United States has used 5 methods to subvert China: 1) Political Infiltration, 2) Cultural infiltration, 3) Ideological infiltration, 4) Organizational infiltration, and 5) Political interference and social penetration.
Washington’s ‘conspiracy’ is said to be at the root of all evils in the Middle Kingdom: social conflicts, officials' corruption, human rights protests, spread of Christianity and advocacy of a ‘constitutional government’.
This type of propaganda does not fit with the oft-repeated Peaceful Rise of China’s theory. In the months to come, Beijing will have to choose between its aggressive attitude towards its neighbours (and the US) or the continuation of its peaceful growth.
Lex Zhao, a professor of economics at Kobe University in Japan wrote an op-ed (‘China must make friends, not foes, to thrive’) in The South China Morning Post arguing: “In this age of globalisation, no country can become a superpower or even regional power without followers and friends. For China to rise, the co-operation of Japan and other neighbours is vital, without which the so-called ‘Chinese Dream’ will never become reality.”
Will the new Emperors understand this?
We shall have to wait some time to know. In the meantime Delhi should definitely be alert as the NSC will also be responsible for the Sino-Indian border issue and incidents similar to the Depsang Plain episode in Ladakh in April could occur again and this time, there will be no ‘lack of coordination’ on the Chinese side.