India’s China agenda

My article India’s China Agenda appeared in the Edit Page of The Pioneer

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Compared to China, which is assertive and has undertaken innovative developments, India is definitively trailing. Preparation for any eventuality is the way forward to counter its rise

There is no doubt that 2019 has been a special year for China: Lavish events were organised to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In 1949, from the rostrum of the Tiananmen Square, Chairman Mao had announced, “China has arisen.” On October 1, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping was on the same wavelength as his predecessor when he said, “No force can ever shake the status of China or stop the Chinese people and the nation from marching forward.” On that day, Beijing displayed several futuristic military gadgets.
On December 29, the Global Times listed China’s advanced weaponry. It said, “the year 2019” has been a “year of harvest” for China’s military equipment as the country showcased a “massive selection” of the latest, advanced and powerful weapons that operate on land, sea and air. It is not only in the field of advanced armaments that Beijing has been “doing well” but in this domain, the progress is indicative of an assertive China and of the innovative developments undertaken by Beijing. Comparatively, India is definitively trailing. Even though the communist party’s newspaper observed, “These displays of China’s new weapons showed transparency in the country’s military development” and sent a message to the world that China was determined to “safeguard sovereignty and peace,” the fact remains that China is still preparing itself.
Last week, in the Port of Dalian in Liaoning Province, China launched the country’s 23rd Type 052D and the sixth Type 055 destroyer. Experts said “the ship was one of the world’s largest and most powerful destroyers” and was capable of leading a high sea fleet or becoming the “pillar in an aircraft carrier battle group”, said the Global Times.
A few days earlier, China had officially commissioned its first domestically-built aircraft carrier, the Shandong. The CNN reported, “China has officially commissioned its first domestically-built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, a significant step forward in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitions for the country to field a world-class Navy.” Xi attended the commissioning ceremony in the southern province of Hainan where the carrier joined the Chinese Navy. In 2019, China launched the highest number of warships in the world: Nine destroyers, one comprehensive supply ship, one comprehensive landing ship, one amphibious assault ship, 12 light frigates with a total displacement of 200,000 tonnes, surpassing the US by far.
The Global Times quoted military experts as saying, “2019 will not be the end of China’s military equipment development. More weapons are expected in 2020 and beyond.” But there is another side to the coin. President Xi has been facing a rough sea at home. The fourth plenary session of the 19th Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 28 to 31. The members discussed the work report presented by Xi and adopted it “to uphold and improve the system of socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics and improve the party’s capacity for law-based governance and law-based exercising of state power.”
The communiqué mentions, the nation is facing “increasing challenges at home and abroad.” The gathering upheld the principle of “one country, two systems,” maintaining lasting prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macao, and “promoting the peaceful reunification of China.”
Despite the serious difficulties faced by China, India needs to be prepared to respond to its rise. But first, let’s talk about what India should not do. The two-day meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at a resort in October in Mamallapuram was an occasion to talk about “civilisation.” But was it of any help?
As it is, during Nehruvian days, India was fond of this hazy concept. The dictionary thus defines the term as “an act or a process of civilising, as by bringing out of a savage, uneducated, or unrefined state, or of being civilised.” Already, in the 1950s, this great “idea” allowed the Indian leadership to “dream” of lofty principles such as peaceful co-existence, while China was quietly consolidating its presence on the Tibetan plateau and preparing for a war with India.
Today, India should look after its own interests and forget about vague idealistic concepts. It should learn from the Chinese leadership, which has always remained pragmatic and down-to-earth. Unfortunately, when India speaks about its past, it does so to avoid talking about the present. This is what may have happened between India and China during the two-day encounter at Mamallapuram. Though it is not known what went on for two-and-a-half hours during the one-to-one dinner composed of exotic Tamil dishes, very few concrete decisions seem to have been taken. The Indian foreign secretary affirmed that the “K” word was not pronounced. This is regrettable for the occasion was opportune to clarify the Indian position.
One positive outcome from the meeting was the decision to establish a high-level economic and trade dialogue mechanism “with the objective of achieving enhanced trade and commercial relations, as well as to better balance the trade between the two countries.” This can, hopefully, help rebalance the trade deficit — today in India’s disfavour.
An example of a positive pragmatic policy for India has been the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). A day before the end of the year, the Government finally nominated Gen Bipin Rawat, outgoing Chief of Army Staff, as the first CDS “to drive the desperately-needed integration among the three services.”
But why did we have to wait for one day before the end of Gen Rawat’s tenure to see his name released? There was probably an intense lobbying from the babus to preserve their turf.  The history of modern India is a Mahabharata between the progressive forces, which want to change “eternal Bharat”, and the entrenched administration sticking to their privileges.
To win this battle would be the best way to counter China. As Rawat was handing over the baton to Gen MM Naravane, his successor, he was asked a question: Is the Army better prepared today to face the security challenges than when he took over? Gen Rawat replied, “Yes, we are better prepared.”
Preparation for any eventuality is the way forward to counter the rise of China. At the same time, India needs to continue investing in infrastructure, telecommunication systems, roads, airports and border areas while also providing a decent living and empowering frontier populations. In the future, Artificial Intelligence (AI), latest telecommunication means and new technologies should be indigenously developed if India does not want to be left behind. Only then will China respect India and will not be tempted to engage in an adventure like it did in 1962.
This is a tough agenda for 2020.

As 2020 nears, challenges mount for Xi’s China

My article As 2020 nears, challenges mount for Xi’s China appeared in Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle


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China seems today to be caught in a vicious circle of repression and does not have a solution to come out of it.

The year 2019 was to be an incredible one for China: lavish events were organised to celebrate 70 years of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), that Chairman Mao, after winning a bloody war against the Nationalist forces, had announced from the rostrum of Tiananmen Square.
On October 1, 2019, President Xi Jinping was on the same wavelength as his predecessor: “No force can ever undermine China’s status, or stop the Chinese people and nation from marching forward.”
Those who watched some 15,000 troops from 59 units, 47 belonging to the ground forces and a dozen airborne squadrons, could not doubt say that China has arisen. Also on display that day was the DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile (a hypersonic glide vehicle that can deliver both nuclear and conventional payloads) or a new-generation road-mobile DF-41, intercontinental missiles, which can reach the US, and several other futuristic gadgets.
Many examples could be given to show that China is doing well. In terms of defence for example: the website Aerospace & Defence reported: “While the US Navy launches a handful of destroyers each year, the single image of a Shanghai shipyard shows nine newly constructed Chinese warships. China’s Navy is modernising at an impressive rate. A key ingredient is the construction of a fleet of large destroyers, amphibious warships and aircraft carriers.” Not far away, China, which already has two carriers, works on the next-generation carrier (known as Type-003), with electromagnetic catapults similar to the latest US ones.
It is believed that in the same shipyard, a “sailless” submarine is being built; according to Forbes: “This submarine is a unique design that has no sail to speak of. All other submarines have this fin-like structure rising up from the middle of the deck where the periscope goes.”
Examples could be multiplied: quantum communication, supercomputers, artificial intelligence, new warning and reconnaissance abilities and so on.

That’s for the bright side.
But all is not well in the Middle Kingdom. In October, the BBC commented: “Modern China has since developed at an extraordinary pace, but it is also one of the world’s most restrictive states. The celebrations were overshadowed as thousands took to Hong Kong’s streets, with some violent clashes breaking out.”
Take the fourth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee finally held in Beijing from October 28 to 31; it took place after a delay of more than a year to discuss the Chinese economy — this long postponement is not a healthy sign. During the plenum, it was openly admitted that China faces many challenges, the communique mentioned: “the complicated situation of increasing risk challenges at home and abroad.”
The gathering upheld the principle of “one country, two systems”, and of “maintaining lasting prosperity and stability in Hong Kong and Macao, and promoting the peaceful reunification of China”.
At that time, China was certainly not expecting a “tsunami” in favour of the pro-democracy movement, which won 392 out of 452 seats in Hong Kong’s local elections: the anti-Beijing candidates took control of 17 out of 18 district councils.
Beijing was left speechless. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP): “Xinhua waited [a day] to release a two-paragraph news report on the polls, stating only that the elections took place and ‘18 districts produced results’”. The People’s Daily just mentioned the history of US intervention in foreign elections.
To make things worse for Mr Xi, on November 16, the New York Times published excerpts of 403 pages of internal classified documents with dreadful new details on China’s crackdown on Xinjiang.
The documents provide an unprecedented insider’s view on the clampdown and particularly the internment camps, where more than one million Muslims are kept. According to the New York Times: “Senior party leaders are recorded ordering drastic and urgent action against extremist violence, including the mass detentions, and discussing the consequences with cool detachment.”
At the end of August 2016, Chen Quanguo, the then party secretary in Tibet, was sent to Xinjiang to “pacify” the restive Muslim region. Mr Chen had “managed” well on the Roof of the World. Three years later, Mr Chen has transformed Xinjiang into a vast camp (either called “concentration” by the West or “vocational” by China).
In Tibet, Mr Chen had implemented powerful slogans such as “Social Management”, “Comprehensive Rectification”, “Preventive Control”, “Eliminate-Unseen-Threats”, “Nets-in-the-Sky-Traps-on-the-Ground” or “Copper-Ramparts-Iron Walls”; the latter one for example, translates into “an impenetrable public security defence network consisting of citizen patrols, border security posts, police checkposts, surveillance systems, Internet controls, identity card monitoring, travel restrictions, informant networks and other mechanisms”.
China seems today to be caught in a vicious circle of repression and does not have a solution to come out of it.
Though China and the United States have now reached an agreement in their trade negotiations, which should temporarily stop the trade war, many issues remain unsolved, simply because China’s economy is not in good shape, though Wang Shouwen, the Chinese vice-minister of commerce, announced that the agreement would cover a wide range of issues, including intellectual property protection, technology transfer or purchase of agricultural products.
In the meantime, Beijing’s propaganda has become more hyperactive than ever. The South China Morning Post observed: “While more Chinese diplomats and embassies have activated Twitter accounts, they have entered a cold new world.” But this does not help as most of China’s neighbours are getting tired of Beijing’s bullying tactics.
During a forum on Strengthening National Security for Taiwan and Japan held in Taipei on December 14, Adm. Hideaki Kaneda, a retired officer from Japan’s maritime self-defence force, openly called for a strategic partnership between Japan, the US and Taiwan to counter China’s growing influence in the region. The admiral noted that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had long been preparing for military action against Taiwan, simulating attacks on the presidential office, strategic Taiwan ports, and even streets.
Mr Kaneda suggested that, to start with, Taiwan should be included in the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief training (HADR) of the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), an international maritime warfare exercise.
Emmanuel Lenain, the French ambassador to India, has recounted in an article that before taking his post in September, President Emmanuel Macron briefed him, and his first task was “to consolidate Indo-Pacific ties based on shared values and principles”. Obviously, China is not always “sharing” international recognised values on the ground (or on the seas).
Last month, French Navy Chief Adm. Christophe Prazuck asserted: “There are different behaviours in the South China Sea… We go there, we will still go there, and we will continue to go there and we continue to, and by our action, support freedom of navigation.”
This trend of other nations asserting their “core” interests will not stop next year, and China will have to learn to live with it. And if President Xi does not want a coalition of nations against China to emerge, in his own words: “we will continue to work with people from all countries to push for jointly building a community with a shared future for humanity,” will need to be more than mere propaganda words. This is the challenge for China in 2020.